A Look At The Tribe At 60 Games Under Tito

It is looking more and more like the 2020 Major League Baseball season will be limited to 60 games, so it will be a sprint rather than a marathon, at least this year.

Although we believe five teams in each league is a good number for the sport to make the post-season, especially after playing 162 regular season games, we agree that this season, there is no problem with having eight teams in both the American and National Leagues making the playoffs.

With this 60 game plan, we decided to take a look at how the Tribe has done in the first 60 contests in the Terry Francona era.

2019:  The Indians 5-2 victory over Minnesota raised their record to 30-30, but they trailed the Twins by 10.5 games, as the northerners were setting a blistering pace at 40-19.

Shane Bieber won his 5th game and Brad Hand saved his 17th, as Francona leaned on him early in the season as the offense struggled.

Remember the Tribe played the first month of the season without Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez was hitting just .202 with a 610 OPS.  Lindor did have 10 HR and 23 RBI despite missing the time, and Carlos Santana had a 907 OPS at this point.

Leonys Martin was getting the bulk of the playing time in centerfield, and was batting .214 with 646 OPS.

2018:  Cleveland’s 3-1 win over Milwaukee gave them a 32-28 mark and they led the AL Central by 4.5 over the Tigers and 5 over Minnesota.

Carlos Carrasco won his 7th (7-4) with Cody Allen picking up his 11th save.

The triumvirate of Ramirez, who was slugging at a .632 clip with 43 ribbies and a 1.028 OPS, Michael Brantley (.325, 916 OPS), and Lindor (917 OPS) were pacing the offense, but Jason Kipnis was hitting just .205 (591 OPS) and Lonnie Chisenhall was struggling as well at a 571 OPS.

Rajai Davis was the centerfielder vs. southpaws, and not really hitting at .232.  He was being platooned with Greg Allen, but the lack of production led to the trade for Martin, who fell ill shortly after arriving in Cleveland.

2017:  A 4-2 win over the White Sox gave the Tribe a 31-29 record, good for second place, a game and a half behind the surprising Twins.

Carrasco raised his record to 6-3, with the bullpen trio of Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, and Allen getting the last 11 outs.

Daniel Robertson started in RF that night, while Bradley Zimmer and Austin Jackson were platooning in center.

Santana was struggling at .218 (712 OPS), but Lindor, Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion all had OPS over 800 after 60 games.

2016:  The future AL Champs won 6-2 over the Angels, making them 34-26 and they had a 3.5 game lead on Chicago, and four over Detroit and Kansas City.

Corey Kluber’s complete game gave him a 6-6 record for the season.

Ramirez played LF that night, as his 811 OPS made Tito look for ways to get him in the lineup.  Jose Uribe (593 OPS) played the hot corner.

And in a portent of things to come, the starting rightfielder that night?   Michael Martinez.

2015:  The Indians dropped to 28-32 with a 4-0 loss to Detroit, and sat in last place in the Central, seven games behind Kansas City.

Danny Salazar took the loss dropping his record to 6-2.

Kipnis was having a very good year, hitting .332 (914 OPS), and the lineup featured Brantley in CF, Mike Aviles at SS, Brandon Moss in RF, Ryan Raburn in LF, and Gio Urshela at third.

Santana was hitting just .221 and the DH that night was Nick Swisher, batting .198 with an OPS under 600.

2014:  Cleveland was at the break even mark, at 30-30 after a 7-4 extra inning win over Boston.  Kluber was the starter, but Carrasco got the win with two frames of scoreless relief, striking out four.

Asdrubal Cabrera was the SS and won the game with a homer off former Indian, Eduard Mujica.

Brantley was hitting .308, and Chisenhall was sizzling at .361, playing first base in the game, while Michael Bourn was the leadoff hitter, batting .295.

David Murphy was in RF and Aviles was at third.

2013:  Francona’s first Indians team was in the midst of an 8 game losing streak, dropping a 7-5 decision to the Tigers, dropping 3.5 behind Detroit.

Justin Verlander defeated Ubaldo Jimenez, who went just three innings allowing five runs.  Of course, Jimenez was arguably the best pitcher in the game down the stretch for the Tribe, who rode a red hot September (21-6) to a wild card spot.

It is interesting that Rich Hill pitched in relief during that game, and Mark Reynolds played third base for Cleveland.

This research reminds us that the Indians are very much a second half team under Francona, but they will not have the luxury if indeed, there is a 60 game slate in 2020.

However, if there are extra post-season teams this year, the Indians should be able to qualify even if it takes them awhile to find their way.

MW

 

 

Browns’ Front Office/Coaches Keeping It Low Key. That’s Good.

The Cleveland Browns are taking a different approach this off-season.  They are flying under the radar.

No bold off-season moves, no bringing in big name players, no talk of post-season play.

Just very business like, and at the same time very logical.

It helps that the national media isn’t jumping on the bandwagon, like last year when the Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr. and every talking head in the county was proclaiming a playoff appearance for Cleveland.

That’s not to say, the playoffs isn’t a goal for the 2020 Browns, we are sure that behind the scenes, GM Andrew Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski know that if things fall into place, they can win 10 or more games and get to the post-season.  However, they aren’t putting that goal out there in public the way former GM John Dorsey did.

It happens every year in the NFL.  The San Francisco 49ers were 4-12 in 2018, and last year went to the Super Bowl with a 13-3 record.

The previous year, it was the Chicago Bears making the leap from 5-11 to 12-4 and an NFC North championship.

And in 2017, Jacksonville went from 3-13 to 10-6 and a playoff spot as a result of winning the AFC South.

So, we know it can be done, but there’s no reason to proclaim it to everyone who will listen.

And we know the Browns’ players didn’t publicly talk about it, is was driven by the national talking heads because of the rookie play of Baker Mayfield and the acquisition of Beckham, but we still feel the talk got to the coaching staff and front office, and the Browns got away from doing the things that made them successful in the second half of 2018.

Look, the Browns have talent, especially on the offensive side of the football.  You could make a claim they have the best set of skill position players in the NFL, not counting quarterback.

They have the man who finished second in the league in rushing a year ago in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who led the NFL in rushing in 2017 and had 824 yards in 11 games the following year.

At wide receiver, they have Beckham Jr. of course, and Jarvis Landry, a five time Pro Bowler (in six seasons), coming off a career high 1174 receiving yards.

They signed Austin Hooper, a tight end who has made two Pro Bowls and is coming off a career high 75 receptions with Atlanta last season, and former first round pick David Njoku, who missed most of last year with injuries, but caught 56 passes in ’18.

So, offensive talent is there, assuming the offensive line gels.

The defensive side of the football is still where the questions are, but when you start with Myles Garrett at defensive end, that’s a good thing.  And you have Denzel Ward at cornerback, who still had excellent grades from Pro Football Focus on his cover skills, although many people thought he had kind of a down year.

With this talent, why should the brass be conservative?  Because this group of players doesn’t know how to win just yet.  They haven’t done it, and without a doubt it’s a learned skill.

That’s the biggest challenge the coaching staff has this upcoming season, teaching the way to win.  And the biggest thing that will help is getting some wins early in the season.

There is no doubt in our minds that had the Browns had an easier schedule early in the year, it would have made a difference.  Look at Buffalo’s season in 2019–they opened with the Jets, Giants, and Bengals, going 3-0, before losing a close one to New England, 16-10.

They started to believe in themselves, went 10-6 and made the playoffs.

That’s why despite the talent, the front office and head coach aren’t making any bold proclamations about this season.  Learning to win is the first lesson the Browns need to grasp.

MW

Tribe Killing It In Simulated Seasons

With baseball still on the shelf, the only way you can get the feeling of following a team day by day is by checking out the various simulations of the 2020 season out there.

In April, we checked out a couple such games, the Out Of The Park simulation being conducted on BaseballReference.com and the other being played out on StratOMatic.com.

According to both of these sites, baseball fans in northeast Ohio and missing one helluva season.

BaseballReference.com:  The Tribe leads the AL Central with a 48-27 record and holds a seven game bulge on the second place Minnesota Twins.  That mark is the best in the American League, and third best in baseball, behind the Dodgers and Cardinals.

Offensively, the Indians are being paced by Carlos Santana (.315, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 932 OPS), Francisco Lindor (.288, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 887 OPS), and Jose Ramirez (.274, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 867 OPS).

Franmil Reyes has belted 20 long balls, and Tyler Naquin returned to the active roster in May and is hitting .323.  Jordan Luplow is getting steady playing time and has 10 homers to go along with a .283 batting average.

Newcomers Cesar Hernandez (.301, 6 HR, 34 RBI, .370 OBP) and Domingo Santana (.256, 10 HR) and fit in quite well to the lineup.

As we noted in April, this game has been playing Greg Allen at the everyday CF, and he’s done well, batting .280 with a .347 on base percentage.

Pitching wise, Shane Bieber has fit the profile as a staff ace with an 11-4 mark and a 2.98 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 114 innings.  Aaron Civale is 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA, and though Carlos Carrasco (4-4, 4.30) and Mike Clevinger (3-3, 5.37) have struggled a bit, rookie lefty Scott Moss has picked up the slack, going 7-1 with a 4.48 ERA.

Brad Hand has 17 saves, and James Karinchak has a 1.98 ERA in 13 innings, but has fanned 24 hitters in that span.

The game had the Tribe picking up veteran relievers John Axford, Jim Johnson, and Daniel Stumpf as well.

One bone to pick–they had Cleveland dealing Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, and Juan Carlos Mejia to Texas for catcher Robinson Chirinos, a deal the Indians’ front office would never make.

StratOMatic.com:  This simulation also has the Tribe sitting with a 48-27 record and an 8 game lead over the Twins in the Central.  Cleveland has the second best mark in the AL (behind Houston) and third in MLB overall (Dodgers).

Reyes is the offensive machine for the Indians, batting .334 with 21 home runs and 54 RBIs, Lindor leads the team in ribbies with 55, along with 19 bombs and a .271 batting average.

Ramirez checks in at .259 with 14 homers and 45 runs knocked in.

They also have Luplow getting more playing time, and he’s responded with 7 HR, 26 RBI, and a .290 batting average.

Hernandez has had a fine season to date here as well, batting .295 with 8 dingers.  And Carlos Santana is batting .300 and is third in the AL in walks with 50.  His power is down so far with just 6 homers.

They have used Delino DeShields as the primary CF, hitting .258 although Bradley Zimmer has just been recalled.  Oscar Mercado is on the team, but batting just .232.

Clevinger has been the best pitcher, going 5-1 with a 2.32 ERA and 74 punchouts in 73 innings, while Bieber has been solid, with an 8-5 mark, 3.59 ERA and 114 whiffs in 100 frames.

Zach Plesac is 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA.

Brad Hand has struggled.  He has 21 saves, but a 5.73 ERA, but the relievers have been buoyed by strong performances from Phil Maton (1.44 ERA), James Hoyt (1.26 ERA in just 14 innings).

Karinchak has a 3.20 ERA in 25.1 innings with 32 strikeouts, and he has been joined by rookies Cam Hill and Kyle Nelson.

If these games are even close to realism, we are missing a great season to date by the Indians.  Guess that should make everyone even more sad about what is going on in The National Pastime.

 

Signing Garrett Now Absolutely The Correct Move For Browns

A few days ago, we wondered on social media what the reaction around Cleveland would be if the Browns announced they would be unable to re-sign DE Myles Garrett because they simply couldn’t afford it.

It was meant to compare the view of the Browns’ ownership vs. that of the Indians, meaning people just accept the baseball team here cannot afford top players, while we feel they would be outraged in the Haslam family made the same claim.

Later that day, the news hit that the Browns were indeed seeking a long term extension with Garrett, whose contract will end following the 2021 season.

First, the Browns are in a league with a salary cap, and they have plenty of room under said cap, so it would be wise to sign their best defensive player.  Second, they understand that Garrett is a star in terms of production.

Garrett has played just three NFL seasons, and already should be considered one of the Browns’ top pass rushers of all time, and when you realize he missed considerable time last season after his suspension, it’s even more impressive.

The former first overall pick is currently seventh in Cleveland history in sacks, despite playing just 37 of a possible 48 games, with 30.5.  He averages .82 sacks per game.

The least amount of games played by the six men in front of him is the 41 played by Anthony Pleasant, who has 33.5 in that span, the same average as Garrett.

Of course, Pleasant’s tenure here ended when Art Modell moved the franchise to Baltimore.  He played eight more seasons in the league, ending his career with 58 sacks, which would put him second of the all-time franchise list.

If Garrett gets 10 sacks in the upcoming 2020 season, that would give him 40.5 for his career, making him tied for third on the Browns’ career list, behind only Clay Matthews and Michael Dean Perry.

And if he played all 16 games, he would be there in 53 games, compared to 144 for Matthews and 109 for Perry.

Now we understand the Cleveland franchise hasn’t been blessed with dominant pass rushers since Paul Brown was fired as head coach, and certainly not since sacks were designated as an official statistic.

Since Garrett came into the league in 2017, only ten players have sacked the passer more times than the former Texas A & M standout, and of those ten, only four (Chandler Jones, Aaron Donald, Cameron Jordan, and Danielle Hunter) have totals far ahead of the Cleveland player.

His 30.5 total compares favorably to that of prime pass rushers like Von Miller (32.5), Khalil Mack (31.5), and Chris Jones (31).  You have to think if Garrett would have completed the season last year, he’d be ahead of that trio.

If you are the Browns, you want to do this sooner than later to help determine your salary structure for next off-season, and you have to think the price of an elite pass rusher may increase, even with the uncertainty of this upcoming season, and whether or not fans will be allowed to attend.

This is absolutely the correct move for the Browns’ front office.  Myles Garrett is an elite player, and keeping him in the orange and brown makes perfect sense.

MW

Bradley and Chang: Forgotten Indian Prospects?

When talking about the young players on the roster of the Cleveland Indians, the conversation usually is about guys like Oscar Mercado, presumed to be the starting centerfielder, or slugger Franmil Reyes, who many figured could have hit 40 home runs in a full season.

Or people talk about the young arms the Tribe has on the cusp of being quality big league starters, namely Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, and perhaps Triston McKenzie, who missed all of last year with injuries.

Maybe people will bring up the flame throwers in the bullpen, James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, and depending how “in the know” they are, Cam Hill and Kyle Nelson.

However, two players who signed and were developed by the organization seem to be forgotten.  Both are 24 years old right now, but it doesn’t feel like the Indians have plans for them any more.

We are talking about Yu Chang and Bobby Bradley.

A right-handed hitter shortstop, Chang debuted in the organization in 2014 in the Arizona Rookie League, and made his mark hitting .346 with 6 HR and a 986 OPS at age 18.

He played in Lake County as a 19 year old and struggled at the plate batting .232 with 9 dingers, and struggled with strike zone judgment, fanning 103 times in 440 plate appearances with just 27 walks.

He rebounded a bit at Lynchburg in 2016 (.259, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 795 OPS, increased walk rate) and had a good stint in the Arizona Fall League, batting .304.

However, in the AFL, he fanned 21 times and walked just 3 times.

Moving to AA in ’17, Chang did belt 24 homers, but hit just .220 and struck out 134 times in 504 plate appearances.  In his first year at AAA in 2018, he batted .256 and followed that hitting .253, with a combined total of 22 homers.

In our eyes, you need to have the ability to get on base and/or drive the ball to be a big league hitter.  Since his stint in rookie ball, Chang’s high in on base percentage is .332 and his minor league slugging percentage is just .436.

In 84 big league at bats, he hit .186 with one homer and whiffed 22 times in 84 PA.

The lack of ability to make contact or have good strike zone judgment is the reason the Tribe signed Cesar Hernandez as a free agent and traded for Christian Arroyo late last season.

And it’s going to be tough for infielder to show anything without a true minor league season in 2020.

As for Bradley, he might be able to get a spot on a 30 man daily roster, but it appears he’s not in their long range plans as an everyday player.

The left-handed hitter was a third round pick in ’14 and dominated the Arizona Rookie League, hitting .361 with 8 HR and 50 RBI (1.078 OPS).  The following year, he started at Lake County, where he belted 27 long balls, hit .269, but fanned 148 times in 465 plate appearances.

He moved to high A Lynchburg for eight hitless at bats, and stayed there in 2016, hitting 29 homers, but his batting average dipped to .239, and although he drew 75 walks, which is good, he whiffed 175 times.

He had a 890 OPS at Lake County, and dropped to 810 at Lynchburg.

That figure fell further at Akron in 2017 to 796, as he hit .251 with 23 dingers.  The strikeouts dropped to 122, which is good, but so did the walks (55).

He started the next season at Akron, hitting .214 with 24 bombs.  His slugging percentage went up slightly, but his on base percentage dropped.  He was promoted to Columbus later that season, hitting .254 with three homers in 32 games.

He seemed to change his approach last year, and didn’t care as much about cutting down on the strikeouts, accumulating 153 at AAA, but hit 33 homers, and had a 912 OPS.

Bradley had a cup of coffee with the big club, hitting one homer in 49 PA’s, but batted just .178 and struck out 20 times.

He’s only 24, and sometimes it takes awhile for these power hitters to find their niche in the big leagues, but trading for Reyes during the ’19 season and for Jake Bauers before last season, shows us, the contact problem concerns the Indians’ brass.

Again, the lack of a minor league season retards the development of both Chang and Bradley, as the duo need regular at bats to develop.

However, it does seem like the front office lost some of their enthusiasm for these two prospects.  On the other hand, sometimes players get one shot, and they have to take advantage of that chance.

MW

Looking At Cavs’ Free Agents

Now that the Cleveland Cavaliers’ season is officially over, the speculation and planning for the 2020-21 season can officially begin.

The first order of business is decided which, if any of the pending free agents will return to wear the wine and gold (or whatever jerseys they will be wearing on a given night) when the league starts up again in December.

First there is the Andre Drummond situation.  Drummond has a player option worth over $28 million for the ’20-’21 campaign, and it is widely thought the big man will exercise that option and remain a Cavalier.

No matter how the game is played today, with the emphasis on smaller players and shooting, there is a place for a 6’10” player who averages 17.7 points and 15.2 rebounds per night.

And he will be 27 years old.

He has a career 54.2% shooting percentage from the floor, and has improved his free throw percentage which was once dismal (38.6% in 2016-17) to 57.5% this past season.

He’s not a big shot blocker, but he gets a lot of steals, which is weird, but nevertheless, he’s creating turnovers.

Will he ever get another $28 million per year multi-year deal again?  That’s up for debate, but the Cavaliers don’t have to worry about that for next season.

Tristan Thompson is another big man who will be a free agent this fall, but he is unrestricted, and we doubt he will be back in Cleveland when next season begins.

It is hard to believe Thompson will be 30 years old when next season ends, having spent nine years in Cleveland, and was a key member of the 2016 NBA Champions.

He had a very good season too, averaging a career high 12.0 points per game, grabbing 10.1 rebounds, and is a very good post defender.

Our guess though, is having experienced the winning seasons here, Thompson would like to be part of that once again, and his skill set should make him a much coveted piece for teams with title aspirations.

He’s also received his big pay day, so he will look for the best situation for him to advance deep in the playoffs, and perhaps get back to The Finals.

If Thompson wanted to stay and the dollars made sense, he’d be someone we’d be interested in keeping, but we just feel he thinks it’s time to move on.

Which brings us to Matthew Dellavedova.  Delly will be 30 when next season starts, and his shooting declined last season to the dreadful level.  However, it would be interesting to bring him back as an end of the bench guy because of his experience and feel for the game.

Don’t forget the Aussie was tied for second on the Cavs in assists in ’19-’20 despite playing an average of only 14 minutes per night.  When he got extra time due to injuries at the end of the season, he averaged seven helpers per game over an eight game span.

If he’s willing to be the “old head” on a very young team, and the price is right, why not bring him back.  Plus, he’s a crowd favorite and a link to the great teams over the last decade.

Yet a third big man, Ante Zizic picked the wrong time to have injury issues, and his numbers regressed from a year ago.  It has been reported he would like to return to Europe to continue his career.

Quite frankly, we like his offensive game, but doubt if he has the lateral quickness to be an effective defender in today’s NBA.

Matt Mooney and Dean Wade are also free agents, and if the Cavs want them to compete for a roster spot in training camp, whenever that starts, we are sure they will be welcome.  Wade is a stretch four, so he may be able to help if he can show he can defend a bit.

Apparently, we will know what happens with these players around Halloween.  As we have said before though, the wine and gold still need to get bigger, and if Thompson and Zizic leaves, that just means the need is even greater.

MW

Trading Good Young Players? For Tribe, We’ve Seen How It Works

Since we started following the Cleveland Indians, and we go back to the mid-sixties, one thing has been a constant, trading good young players for a bushel of prospects.

That almost never works out.

So, when people ask us why we are adamant that the Indians are doing the wrong thing by trading Francisco Lindor, we have a boatload of history and memories to support our thinking.

One of the best players on the Tribe’s early 1970’s teams was third baseman Graig Nettles.  The left-handed hitter played three seasons in Cleveland, totaling 71 home runs, 218 RBI, and a 750 OPS.

In 1972, one of the Indians’ top prospects (in those days, perhaps their only prospect) was Buddy Bell, who also handled the hot corner.  Bell played the outfield in ’72, but the Indians were anxious to make room for him at third, so they dealt Nettles to the Yankees, where he blasted 250 homers and played on two World Championship teams.

Who did Cleveland receive?  They got John Ellis, Jerry Kenney, Rusty Torres, and a prospect OF in Charlie Spikes.

Nettles accumulated 44.4 WAR in his career with the Bronx Bombers.  The best player the Tribe received was Ellis, who had a 3.2 WAR in his tenure with Cleveland.

Two years later, the Indians had a first baseman who won the Rookie of the Year Award in ’71, and again they dealt with New York, sending Chris Chambliss there along with Dick Tidrow and Cecil Upshaw for four pitchers:  Fritz Peterson, Steve Kline, Fred Beene, and Tom Buskey.

Chambliss accumulated 4.0 WAR with the Tribe, but 15.4 with the Yanks over seven years, playing on two World Series champions.

Peterson went 23-25 for Cleveland, Kline 3-8, while Beene went 5-4 with an ERA over 5.00 in two seasons.  Buskey was the least accomplished pitcher coming to the Indians (just 12 big league games), but was the best of the quartet going 12-13 with 25 saves in four seasons.

Dennis Eckersley was just 23 years old and coming off 40 wins in his first three seasons with Cleveland when he was dealt to Boston for prospect 3B Ted Cox, catcher Bo Diaz, and two starting pitchers, veteran Rick Wise and Mike Paxton before the ’78 season.

Eck spent eight years in Boston, winning 88 games, and of course, later in his career became the most dominant reliever in the game, and was elected to the Hall of Fame.

Cox was brought in despite the presence of Bell (who was dealt the next year for another third baseman in Toby Harrah), and Wise had one good year with the Tribe and one bad one before leaving in free agency.  Paxton had a solid year before developing arm problems and was out of the game by 1980.

Diaz, who was kind of a throw-in, wound up being the best player, making the All Star team in ’81 with Cleveland, and was a regular for Philadelphia’s World Series team in 1983 and played until 1989.

In 1985, Cleveland traded another pitcher on the way to Cooperstown, moving Bert Blyleven to Minnesota for SS Jay Bell (who they didn’t really give a shot to) and three pitchers, Rich Yett, Curt Wardle, and Jim Weaver.

That trio won 29 games for Cleveland, while Blyleven won 50 over the next three and a half years, including one that ended in a World Series title for the Twins.

After the 1988 season, Cleveland dealt Julio Franco, who batted .297 with a 752 OPS in his six years as an Indian to Texas and not for prospects, but instead three mediocre big league players in Pete O’Brien, Jerry Browne, and Oddibe McDowell.

Franco hit .307 over the next five seasons with Texas, winning a batting title, and putting up an 822 OPS.  Only Browne played more than one season with the Tribe, two as a regular and the other as a reserve.

That isn’t to say all of these deals didn’t work.

In 1983, Cleveland moved Len Barker to Atlanta, and received Brett Butler and Brook Jacoby, both of whom were long time regulars with the Indians, while Barker was finished after the 1987 season.

And dealing Joe Carter after the ’89 season netted Cleveland two major building blocks of the great 90’s teams in Sandy Alomar Jr. and Carlos Baerga.

We also all remember the Bartolo Colon deal in 2002, which might be the last deal of that kind because of the return the Indians received.

The point is trading very good (or excellent) young players is extremely risky.  The best bet is to keep them and watch them keep improving into possible Hall of Fame players.

MW

Retired Numbers Should Be For The Elite.

With Tristan Thompson perhaps (probably) playing his last game as a Cleveland Cavalier because the NBA season for the wine and gold is over, the subject of retired numbers came up regarding the franchise, and we wanted to weigh in with our thoughts.

First, let’s clarify a few rules.  Much like Hall of Fame debates, you cannot use the fact that someone’s number has been retired and shouldn’t have as an argument to retire a number.

For example, Nate Thurmond’ s number was retired by Cleveland even though the big man played a shade of a season (114 games total) with the Cavs.  That shouldn’t justify anyone else who played that short of time with the team having their number hanging from the rafters.

Second, a player should play the majority of his career with the team who is retiring his number.  So, people who want the Indians to retire C.C. Sabathia’s number would be on the wrong side of this argument.

The lefty pitched here for eight seasons, but spent 11 seasons in pinstripes.

In our opinion, retiring a players’ number should be reserved for the elitist of players, the crème de la crème if you will.

So, Thompson will likely fit the longevity factor, but although he was a key piece of the squads that went to four straight NBA Finals, he’s never been an elite player.  Heck, he’s never made an All Star team.

One of the reason’s the Cavs have so many uniform numbers retired was to draw people to games when they had bad records.

Austin Carr?  He deserves the honor.  He’s 6th all time in games played and still ranks 4th in points scored, and he was the franchise’s first marquee player.  He’s called Mr. Cavalier, and with good reason.

Mark Price was the first Cleveland player to make first team All-NBA, and made four all star appearances, his teammate, Brad Daugherty, made five all star appearances.

We will agree to them, and of course, LeBron James’ #23 will be honored when his playing days end.

Larry Nance?  Played more games with the Suns than with the Cavs (and we loved Nance as a player).  And it pains us to say it, because his jersey retirement started bridging the gap between the team and James, but Zydrunas Ilgauskas’s number shouldn’t be retired either.

As for the future, the second clause would keep Kyrie Irving’s number in play, because he likely will play more games for another team than the Cavs.

The Indians got caught in the same attendance driven trap as well, so they started retiring too many numbers.

Obviously, Bob Feller’s #19 should get the honor.  He’s the greatest player in the history of the franchise.  And we would also agree with Lou Boudreau’s #5, Bob Lemon’s #21, and Jim Thome’s #25 never being worn again.

And Larry Doby’s historical significance, even though he’s ignored nationally, merit’s his #14 being taken out of circulation.  The fact he was also a great player makes him even more worthy.

But Earl Averill?  Most people outside of Cleveland don’t know who he is, even though he’s in Cooperstown.  Mel Harder pitched here a long time, and was very good, but…

Frank Robinson deserves the statue commemorating him as the major league’s first African-American manager, but his number should not be retired in Cleveland.  In Baltimore?  Absolutely, but not here.

The Browns have retired five jerseys, although the number retirement is less prevalent in the NFL.  Iconic players Otto Graham (#14), Lou Groza (#76), and the great Jim Brown (#32) will never have their numbers worn again, and we can understand retiring #45, commemorating the tragic story of Ernie Davis, who passed from leukemia before ever playing with the Browns.

The other retired number is another tragic story, that of Don Fleming (#46), who was a starting safety for Cleveland from 1960-62, and was electrocuted working construction during the off-season in June, 1963.

Our guess is the Browns will be retiring another number soon, when Joe Thomas is elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his #73 will not be worn again.

To us, the jersey retirement should be a very special thing, reserved for the greats of the great for each franchise.

Adding players who aren’t worthy cheapens the honor for those special players.

MW

Solving The Indians’ OF Puzzle

As much as the infield of the Cleveland Indians is certain, the outfield is just the opposite as we possibly head into a second spring training.

The only player who can seemingly be penciled in to an everyday spot is centerfielder Oscar Mercado, and he has just 115 games and 482 plate appearances under his belt, although Franmil Reyes will be in there someplace, either in the outfield or as the DH.

The front office seems to be relying on Terry Francona and his staff working their magic and put the puzzle pieces together and provide the team with the proper mix of hitting and defense.

Reyes is the starting point because at age 23, he belted 37 homers and knocked in 81 (822 OPS).  He would seem to be the middle of the order power bat the Tribe has been looking for years.

The Indians would like him to at least play rightfield at a decent level so he can be out there about 25-50% of the time, opening up the DH spot to give other players a partial day off.

The hope is his plate discipline will improve with experience, making him an elite offensive player.

Another player is must figure in the Indians’ plans is Jordan Luplow, at the very least a prime platoon piece, and hopefully a guy who can figure in the everyday lineup.

Luplow, 26, hit .320 with 14 dingers vs. southpaws (1.181 OPS) last season, but his minor league history doesn’t show huge disparities in his numbers vs. right-handers.  He did hit just .216 with one homer vs. those pitchers in 2019.

He’s solid defensively, so he should get a good opportunity to see regular playing time is he is capable against righties, but worst case scenario he is valuable for what he can do against lefties.

Newcomer Domingo Santana also figures to get plenty of playing time, but it may be based on how much Reyes can play in the outfield.  The right-handed hitter is just three years removed from a 30 HR season with the Brewers, and before a hand injury last season was hitting .286 with 18 bombs for the Mariners (850 OPS).

He struggles defensively though, so if Reyes can’t play RF well, Francona will have to pick his spots playing him in the field.

As for Mercado, it remains to be seen how he plays this year.  Here is his OPS by month a year ago–

May:  52 plate appearances, 819 OPS
June:  115 PA, 844 OPS
July:  103 PA, 757 OPS
August:  100 PA, 573 OPS
September:  112 PA, 827 OPS

And you know what they say about ignoring numbers from April and September.  So, the question remains, did the league make an adjustment to Mercado, and can he make one of his own?

With the delay in the start of the season, it means Tyler Naquin should be ready to go as well.  Naquin could form a platoon partner with Luplow in LF, similar to what he did when Yasiel Puig came over at the trade deadline a year ago.

But Naquin had solid numbers vs. LHP last season, albeit in limited appearances (837 OPS in 63 at bats).  And he hit .289 vs. RHP with six homers.  His weakness?  He swings at everything, his walk rate has dropped from 9.9% in his rookie year to 4.8% in 2019.

And you also have Delino DeShields, who has struggled offensively for much of his career, and the last two seasons in particular, despite playing in an offensive paradise in Texas.

His career road numbers?  .207 BA, 574 OPS

He figures to be the back up plan should Mercado have a sophomore slump, and be used as a defensive replacement (he’s a very good defender) and pinch-runner.

The partial season seems to hurt players like Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer, who needed to be productive in the minors to rebuild their value, and also Daniel Johnson, who hit very well at AA and AAA in ’19, but it will be difficult for him to make an impact on the brass.

There is no question the outfield is the weakest part of the Tribe’s roster, but hopefully, Terry Francona puts the puzzle in the correct alignment and gets some production.

If and when the Indians start to play, the microscope will be on this group.

MW

Passing League? Browns Should Emphasize The Run.

It has been well documented over the past decade or so that the NFL is a passing league.

The game has been dominated by Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and more recently Patrick Mahomes, and their expertise in finding open receivers down the gridiron.

However, is the pendulum starting to swing back to the running game?  And if so, is that another reason the Browns made the correct hire in Kevin Stefanski, and will he be able to maximize the talents of Nick Chubb (second in the NFL in rushing last season) and Kareem Hunt (former NFL rushing champion)?

Let’s look at the best running teams in the league last year–

  1.  Baltimore (14-2)
  2.  San Francisco (13-3, and Super Bowl participant)
  3.  Tennessee (9-7, played in AFC Championship Game)
  4.  Seattle (11-5)
  5.  Dallas (8-8)
  6.  Minnesota (10-6)
  7.  Indianapolis (7-9)
  8.  Buffalo (10-6)
  9.  Houston (10-6)
  10.  Arizona (5-10-1)

That’s seven of the 12 teams that advanced to the playoffs a year ago, and eight of the top ten had non-losing records.

Now, let’s look at the five worst running teams in the NFL:

1.  Miami (5-11)
2.  New York Jets (7-9)
3.  Atlanta (7-9)
4.  Pittsburgh (8-8)
5.  Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)

No winning teams.  Now, we understand some people will say those teams were behind a lot and so they were forced to throw the football, and that is true to some extent.

However, so is a statement made many, many years ago–If you can’t run the ball, and you can’t stop the run, it is difficult to win in the National Football League.

One of the things that didn’t make sense with the Browns’ offense a year ago, is they ranked fifth in the league in yards per rushing attempt, which makes sense since Chubb is on their roster.

Unfortunately, Cleveland ranked 22nd in the league in trying to run the ball.  Remember, Hunt was active for the second half of the year, meaning coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken had two elite runners at their disposal.

So, the many fans who railed week in and week out about the ignorance of the running game were smarter than the people who were actually making decisions on a weekly basis.

Enter Stefanski.  Notice the team he was the offensive coordinator for in 2019, the Vikings, ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing yardage, and also ranked fourth in rushing attempts.

Any questions on what will be the focus of the Browns’ offense this upcoming season?

The Browns ranked 19th in passing attempts last season, despite their 29th ranking in passing efficiency.  Minnesota had the 6th best efficiency rating, but only two teams, Tennessee and Baltimore, threw the ball less often.

The only possible problem is Stefanski’s inexperience as a head coach, so you have to question will he give in to the constant carping from his wide receivers and outside the building to air it out and get the ball in the hands of Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry.

Our guess is Stefanski is already selling his receivers on the additional big plays they can make after establishing a run game.  Would they rather catch seven passes for 85 yards or catch five for 120 yards, or something to that effect?

Baker Mayfield looked very good in the play-action game in his rookie year, and we bet Stefanski will put that skill to good use this fall.

As for stopping the run?  That’s something new defensive coordinator Joe Woods has to work on.  The Browns were third worst in the NFL a year ago, and if you can’t put opponents in unfavorable down and distance situations, your best players (Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward) can’t do what they do best.

MW