Why Have Guardians Stopped Stealing?

When the Cleveland Guardians played the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night, we heard the broadcast team describe both teams as “they like to run”. The Brewers rank 6th in the National League in steals, while the Guardians are 7th.

The reality is while Cleveland started the season running quite a bit, that has waned as the season has gone on.

The Guards stole 35 bases in March/April in the first 28 games of the year. Since then, they have played 49 games and have only stolen 22 bases. They’ve effectively stopped running.

Granted, they were very successful in the first month, being caught just seven times. In May, they swiped 13 bases and were caught just three times, so when they did run, it worked.

In June, they are just a bit above the break-even point, picking up nine bags, while getting caught on eight attempts.

Cleveland ranks last in the majors in home runs, so it would seem they better use the running game to their advantage because it is unlikely they will score with one swing of the bat.

Some of the lack of running comes from not being on base. The team’s two leaders in steals, Steven Kwan and Myles Straw have seen their on base percentage decrease since April. Kwan stole seven bags in eight tries by the end of April. He’s stolen just three in each month succeeding.

Straw pilfered eight bases in the first 28 games this year, but has stolen just two since, incredibly none since May 18th.

The two other Guardians who would seem to be able to put up big stolen base numbers, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario have also declined in this category.

Gimenez stole six in March/April being caught just once, but has stolen just two bags since, while Rosario swiped five in the first month, three more in May, and hasn’t even made an attempt since the first of June.

We understand the hesitation in having Rosario run since he hits ahead of Jose Ramirez, but if Ramirez doesn’t get a hit, why not run then?

Jose Ramirez is also a stolen base threat, but we totally get him not running as much. Conserve his energy as much as possible. He’s that important to the team.

This weekend showed a difference in the philosophies between the Brewers and Guardians. Twice, Milwaukee runners (Christian Yelich and Blake Perkins) ran on the first pitch after getting on base. When was the last time a Cleveland player did that?

When Myles Straw pinch-ran for Tyler Freeman (who went from 1st to 3rd on a wild pitch earlier in the game, but…) in the 8th on Sunday, it took him two batters to attempt to steal.

Now, we are sure some will say the Brewers had two runners picked off. Our response would be that’s the risk you have to take if you are going to run, and again, with the Guardians’ lack of pop, they need to be aggressive on the base paths.

Cleveland is very effective in taking the extra base. They are 5th in the AL in doubles and 2nd in triples. And they go first to third on base hits with the best of them.

We don’t know why the Guardians have stopped stealing since the first month of the year. It’s odd to be sure. Is it a fear of having a runner thrown out? Is it trying to minimize wear and tear on players?

It is probably more apt to say the Guardians are a very good baserunning team rather than a team that likes to steal. We say, why not be good at both?

Don’t Put Much Into The NBA Draft For Cavs.

We have seen a lot of opinions on the Cleveland Cavaliers’ selection of Emoni Bates from Eastern Michigan with the 49th pick in the NBA Draft Thursday night.

If fans think this pick will impact the 2023-24 edition of the wine and gold, we feel they are sorely mistaken. It’s the 49th selection, not the 9th, and the Cavs won 51 games a year ago, they are a solid team, so more than likely whoever they picked in that spot was more of a project.

It’s not like football where a second round pick should be able to be on the field a lot and be a contributor.

For Koby Altman, it’s like a lottery ticket, he hopes the numbers come up in his favor and Bates will wind up being a rotational player down the road.

However, Bates’ selection seems like the antithesis of what the Cavaliers feel about themselves as a roster. J.B. Bickerstaff is always talking about the “grit” and playing tough-minded basketball.

The newest member of the team is seen as a “me-first” player, filled with a lot of hype put upon him as a teenager. By the way, that’s the media’s fault. Talking about any 15 of 16-year-old as the next LeBron James isn’t fair to anyone.

Right now, Bates is 6’9″ and weighs a reported 180 pounds, and by the way, according to scouting reports, isn’t very athletic, not quick or explosive. The report we saw says he’s not a great leaper and doesn’t run the floor well. And obviously at his frame, he needs to hit the weight room.

He can shoot and has good size for a wing player, something the Cavs need badly. He can shoot from distance and also has a solid midrange game, and has the ability to score points in bunches, he had four 30 point games and a career high of 43 against Toledo.

He likely will sign a two-way deal with Cleveland and spend most of the year with the Charge developing both his body and his game, as well as understanding what you have to do both physically and mentally to be an NBA player.

We are concerned about the selfish attitude he is reported to have. Getting drafted in the second round should be a dose of humility.

So, as much as fans wanted the Cavs to get someone who can make a difference for this year’s team in the draft, that likely wasn’t going to happen.

The way Cleveland is going to take the next step as an organization, moving into title contention is through trades and free agency, which will be difficult. We would bet Altman knows that.

And when we say “title contention”, it’s because we don’t want to hear the next step for the Cavs is to win a playoff series. When that’s your goal, that’s likely all you will achieve, something we think happened this past year.

It has been said (including us) that the Cavaliers need shooters, but really, they need some guys who can create their own shots. Right now, they have three of those players, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Caris LeVert. Everyone else needs to be set up.

They need shooters too, but with the offense currently used by Bickerstaff, the burden for creating offense falls pretty much on that trio.

We also believe the Cavs need more basketball players, and what we need by that is guys who can do a little bit of everything, not one dimensional guys.

When the free agent moratorium is set in motion on July 1st, the Cavaliers can start reshaping their roster for 2023-24. Then we will see if Altman was telling the truth about running back last year’s squad.

Does The Guardians’ Front Office Succeed In “Big Trades”?

The other day we talked about the possible trade of Cleveland Guardians’ starting pitcher Shane Bieber. One of the reasons some folks say the Guards should deal Bieber is that they always do well in these types of trades.

Do they? Let’s take a look at the last three major transactions the Cleveland front office has made.

When evaluating the move, we aren’t going to focus on the performance of the player the Guardians traded away, simply going to talk about the return.

The latest move was dealing Francisco Lindor to the Mets along with Carlos Carrasco for Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, and two minor leaguers, Isaiah Greene and Josh Wolf. At the time of the deal, we said the key for Cleveland was Gimenez, who turned into an All-Star last season, and seems like a very good player at the least.

Rosario is a journeyman, likely playing his last season with the Guards. He’s a starter here, but there has been plenty of debate as to whether or not he should be.

We’d give Cleveland a slight edge, mostly because Gimenez has emerged as a potential star.

Then we have the Mike Clevinger deal, which considering he was probably Cleveland’s third starter (behind Bieber and Carrasco) at the time of the deal, was a tremendous haul.

Two of the pieces acquired, Austin Hedges and Owen Miller, have already moved on. Josh Naylor has been excellent, an everyday middle of the order bat, and a team leader. Cal Quantrill is currently out with a shoulder issue, but he’s a solid third or fourth starter on a good team.

We have our doubts about Gabriel Arias, tremendous with the glove, but struggles at the dish. Perhaps another solid piece is coming in lefty Joey Cantillo, currently at AAA, but at the AA level had a 2.13 ERA in 93 innings with 134 strikeouts.

This was a big win for the Guards. They got an impact bat, and solid starting pitcher and possibly more to come in Cantillo

The other trade was moving Trevor Bauer in a three team move to Cincinnati. The return was Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, and two minor leaguers, pitchers Scott Moss and Logan Allen (not the one currently with the Guards).

At the time, we thought the deal was made more for the following season than it was for 2019, a year Cleveland won 93 games and missed the playoffs.

Just four years later, there is nothing left from this deal.

Reyes provided pop for two and a half years here, but we are sure the organization wanted him to be the middle of the order slugger the Guardians are still looking for. He experienced a drastic fall off in production last year and is currently with Washington at the AAA level.

Puig finished the season with Cleveland and moved on. We don’t think Terry Francona and he hit it off. Although he didn’t hit for the power that was expected (slugged just .423), he did get on base to the tune of a .377 OBP.

Allen was a solid prospect but had a 5.45 ERA in 69.1 innings with the Guardians. He’s currently with the Rockies organization and has a 6.70 ERA in AAA. Moss isn’t pitching in professional baseball to date this season.

The Guards certainly didn’t win this one.

Our conclusion? The Guardians have done alright for themselves in these deals but haven’t “killed it”. Gimenez and Naylor are big parts of the current team, with the former having the possibility of being a multi-time all-star.

Make no mistake though, the Cleveland front office has done a solid job getting back good players for potential free agents they have no plans to sign. However, they still haven’t received the slugger they seem to have trouble developing, nor have they received a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.

Talking Through Trading Bieber

When the Cleveland Guardians fell to 21-28 after losing a series on the road to the Chicago White Sox, the baseball media immediately went to their default story when dealing with the Guards, the possibility of a trade of an established star for prospects.

In this case, the star is former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. What kind of haul could Cleveland get for the ace of their staff?

First of all, let us be clear that we are in favor of any trade that makes the team better. However, we say that with a caveat. After winning the AL Central Division a year ago, we are not interested in deals that make the Guardians better in three to four years.

The other part of that equation is the 75 year gap since the last World Series the franchise won.

The real question is what numbers the front office are looking at, the win/loss record or the number of games behind the Guards are in the standings? If it’s the former, then they have to look at the prospect that Bieber will be a free agent after next season and has already likely turned down an extension offer.

If they believe this year’s team can still win the division and get back to the playoffs, then a trade at the deadline doesn’t make sense, particularly since Triston McKenzie is back on the injured list.

We all saw firsthand last week what happens when the starting pitchers don’t throw a good share of the innings on a nightly basis. Any team’s bullpen gets taxed, and Cleveland is no different.

This is a good time to bring up that Bieber leads the American League in innings pitched with 95. Granted, we aren’t seeing the dominant Bieber who made the All-Star team in 2019 (he was the game’s MVP) and was the best pitcher in the league in 2020.

But he still is great help to the Guardians because he can pitch deep into games and he still is effective, allowing less hits than innings and walking only 25 batters vs. 69 strikeouts. His ERA is in the mid-threes at 3.51.

With McKenzie and Cal Quantrill both down, and two rookies in Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee taking two rotation spots, Terry Francona and Carl Willis need guys who can give the bullpen a lighter load every few games.

And if the Guardians do fall off the pace in the division by the middle of July, then it would make sense to explore deals for the right-hander, but we feel the organization would be and should be looking for major league ready bats and/or arms in return.

Besides the whole 1948 issue, remember that Jose Ramirez will turn 31 in September, and we know he wants to win here. Pushing an opportunity to do so down the road a few years while Ramirez is still putting up all-star numbers would seem to be a bad move.

This isn’t a rebuilding team, they won 92 games a year ago with the youngest team in the sport. Before the season started, we looked at young teams and saw sometimes they had to take a step back before they moved forward.

That’s how the Guardians should view this season if they do fall off the pace.

One other issue about trading Bieber while the Guards are still very much in the race. How do you explain it to the fan base, who already look at the ownership with a jaundiced eye.

Straw’s Offensive Woes Making Us Forget The Glove At Times

We want Myles Straw to work out. After coming over from Houston at the trade deadline in 2021, Straw hit .285 in 60 games, getting on base at a .362 clip. He stole 13 bases and even hit two home runs.

Since the 2021 season ended, so has Straw’s offensive production. He has 761 at bats in that time span, collecting 170 hits, a .223 batting average. His walk rate has also dropped, going from 10.8% when he first arrived in Cleveland to 9.1% last year and 9.2% this season.

And he famously is the only major league regular player to not have hit a home run since the ’21 season concluded.

His line drive rate, a little over 30% with the Astros, and 36.5% in the 60 games with the Indians in ’21 has dropped to just under 25% this season. Although he’s never been a pull hitter, he did it around 19% of the time in 2020 and 2021.

That percentage has dropped to 8.6% this season.

Straw is a tremendous defensive centerfielder, a Gold Glove winner last season. However, we like to point out that the great Ozzie Smith hit .211 in his second year in the big leagues with a 522 OPS. And if he didn’t steadily improve on those numbers, not only would he not be in Cooperstown, he also wouldn’t have played 19 years in the majors.

The point there being you have to be at least a respectable hitter to play at the big league hitter.

We are sure Straw would like to be better with a bat in his hand, but the results aren’t there. In the second game in San Diego this past week, Straw was due up with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a game where the Guardians were trailing 4-0.

We instantly said (before the result) that Terry Francona had to send up a pinch-hitter, either Gabriel Arias (decent numbers vs. RHP although a small sample size, also a threat to hit a HR) or Tyler Freeman (solid contact hitter), but the skipper let Straw bat.

He struck out.

We aren’t going to get into what was said after the game, but it was odd at best.

We understand Straw is never going to be Tony Gwynn or Jose Ramirez at the plate. However, it would be great if he could develop a skill of fouling off pitches, working counts, so he could draw more walks and being able to bunt. We have heard on broadcasts that he is a terrible bunter. Why not working on that?

And it would be even better if he started stealing again. He hasn’t stolen a base since May 18th. With his speed, we were shocked by that.

If this were the 1995 Indians, the team could live with Straw’s defense, but this Cleveland squad is currently 12th in the league in runs scored per game. Perhaps a boost in the offensive production at the catcher spot with Bo Naylor’s arrival (not saying he’s Johnny Bench, just saying the Guards should get at least a bit better offense) will help hide Straw in the batting order.

We thought back to the 1986 New York Mets, when manager Dave Johnson would famously start Kevin Mitchell at shortstop from time to time (Mitchell was better suited as a LF or DH). Johnson’s rationale was let the Mets get the lead and then he’d get Mitchell out of there for a better defender.

Perhaps the Guardians should think about using Straw that way. Get a lead, and even if it’s in the 5th inning, put him in the game to take advantage of his defense.

In the meantime, if Straw doesn’t add some things to his game that make him a better hitter, he’s going to be someone managers will be looking to replace in the lineup.

Big Summer Ahead For Cavs

The NBA season ended on Monday night, meaning the draft, free agency, and trade season is upon basketball fans around the country.

That means we will see if Cavs’ president of basketball operations was serious when he said the wine and gold were not going to make big changes this summer.

There is some truth that Denver was patient throughout the past few seasons and reaped the benefit by winning the title, and the Nuggets have indeed built around Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, two players drafted by the team.

The counterpoint to that is the newly crowned champs are built traditionally. Yes, they have one of the best players in the world in the two-time MVP, but they have size in the backcourt, Murray is 6’4 and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is 6’5″.

As we have written many times since the Cavs were eliminated by the Knicks, Cleveland has a very small roster, with only Evan Mobley bigger than most players who play his position. And to be fair, Jarrett Allen is the height of most NBA starting centers.

So standing pat is kind of banking on every going the same way for the Cavs in the 2023-24 campaign. And can that way work in the playoffs?

Help isn’t going to come in the draft, so the Cavaliers have to rely on free agency and the trade market in order to improve. The question is do they have the resources to make the improvements needed to compete in the playoffs next year?

Sure, you can trade players like Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro, or Lamar Stevens, but what is that going to get you? They don’t have enough room under the salary cap to go out and get a big-time free agent. Most teams in the league don’t.

Now, if Altman and GM Mike Gansey really think the Cavs just played a team that was a bad matchup in the first round, and they just need to run it back, okay. There is merit to that. Let’s say, Cleveland would’ve played the Nets in the first round, they likely advance to the conference semifinals.

Many people have speculated that Allen is the most likely to go, but the Cavs are already devoid of big men. Most of these people have the belief that either your power forward or center must be able to shoot threes to win in today’s NBA.

Our counter to that is yes, it does open up the floor, but it doesn’t have to be beyond the arc. If Allen and Mobley can be respectable from 15 feet, that would be very helpful.

And if other teams think the same way as Cleveland, then what kind of return would the Cavaliers get for Allen?

We still think it will be difficult, not impossible to win with a pair of small guards getting big minutes. We said this when Collin Sexton and Darius Garland were the starters, and raised the point when Donovan Mitchell was acquired.

You can’t move a guy like Mobley who has size, is a great defender, being able to guard on the perimeter as well as the post. He’s exactly the kind of versatile player needed in today’s game.

So that means another revamp of the backcourt.

Does the front office have the stomach for that? Two years ago, the Cavs experimented with three seven footers on the front line. Last year, they were a small team. Do they see if they can get to the conference finals with a second year of this group?

We’d like to see the experimental phase end. Even in today’s NBA, size wins. That’s Altman’s challenge this summer.

Too Early To Make Judgments On Ex-Cleveland Players

In the new world we live in, especially related to how sports is covered around the nation, a lot of what people see is highlights, a flash of what really happens. In baseball, most times it is the big hit that influences the game the most.

And of course, the biggest of those types of batting achievements is the walk off hit.

Recently, former Cleveland players Will Benson, now with Cincinnati, and Nolan Jones, currently with Colorado, delivered those hits for their teams. And naturally, the Guards’ fans went crazy wondering why the team dealt those players away.

We think most of this angst comes from the trade of Yandy Diaz following the 2018 season. Diaz didn’t hit for much power with Cleveland (just a .366 slugging percentage), but did get on base to the tune of a .361 on base average.

And Diaz did hit .312 in 39 games with the team in 2018. The Cleveland front office then made a bad deal, sending him and Edwin Encarnacion (salary dump) in a three team deal for basically Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana.

With the Rays, Diaz has an 814 OPS, a .378 on base percentage, and even though he hit just one homer with Cleveland in 299 plate appearances, he has 50 dingers in four plus seasons with Tampa.

And this season, he has emerged as an MVP candidate, with a .405 OBP and 953 OPS.

However, that doesn’t mean all players the Guardians cut ties with will do the same. Take Jones, for example. Cleveland moved him in order to protect some minor league players from the Rule 5 Draft.

In the organization’s eyes, Will Brennan had surpassed Jones, and after a fast start when he was called up, after the all-star break, he batted .203 with a 535 OPS albeit in 59 at bats.

And what may be worse in the Guardians’ view, he struck out 22 times vs. two walks. Keep in mind, the Guards want players who make contact first, and then will teach them to drive the ball. We get it, sometimes that doesn’t work.

With the Rockies, Jones has 18 hits in his first 54 at-bats with four homers. That’s impressive. He’s also fanned 19 times vs. five walks. It is something that should be tracked as the season goes on.

You know how we feel, if a batter cannot control the strike zone, it’s a matter of time before pitchers will exploit that. In the meantime, 50 at bats isn’t nearly enough to say Jones is the next Ted Williams.

By the way, the player Cleveland received for Jones, Juan Brito is just 21 years old and has an 858 OPS between Lake County and Akron this season. He’s walked 34 times vs. 29 whiffs.

Benson was in the same boat as Jones, Cleveland needed to clear spots on the 40-man roster, so he was traded to the Reds. He had a late season trial with the Guardians getting 61 plate appearances, hitting .182 (10 for 55) with just one extra base hit.

He struck out in 19 at bats, walking just three times.

With the Reds this season, he is 15 for 64 (.234) with three extra base hits and has fanned 20 times vs. six walks.

Also, keep in mind, both Jones and Benson are playing in notoriously friendly hitters parks.

Both Jones and Benson have less than 100 plate appearances for their new teams to date, so perhaps people should save their judgment for later in the season.

Maybe they will be Yandy Diaz or maybe they will wind up being just what the Cleveland front office thought. Let’s let it play out before we condemn anyone.

Is Guardians’ Patience Being Rewarded?

It hit us watching the Cleveland Guardians’ scintillating 10-9 multiple comeback win over Houston Friday night that it appears the 2022 edition of the Guardians may have returned.

And if they have, it’s a reminder that no matter how patient we can be as fans, and by the way most fans are not, the front office has more of it, and most times it pays off.

Terry Francona’s squad trailed after four innings by a 5-1 count against Christian Javier, who gave into the game with a 7-1 record for the Astros.

Quite frankly, based on how the season has gone, we were ready to file this one in the loss column. But Cleveland scored three in the fifth to get back into the game behind contributions from Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, and Andres Gimenez, three players who have had rough starts to the campaign.

There was a report that Will Brennan was on the verge of being sent back to AAA as the Guards headed to Baltimore and Minnesota for a seven-game trip.

Since then, the young left-handed hitter has gone 20 for 44 with a couple of home runs, 8 RBIs, and eight multi-hit games, and had the game winning hit on Friday. This has given the bottom of the lineup, a kind of wasteland for the first two months of the year, a kick start.

Early in the week, fans were expressing concern for the star of the team, Jose Ramirez, who was mired in a two-week slump. Well, he’s out of it now, crushing four home runs Thursday and Friday (three in the former game) and raised his slugging percentage to .494 and his OPS to 842.

We bet many casual fans of the Guardians wouldn’t realize that despite the offensive struggles Cleveland has had this season that Josh Naylor ranks fifth in the American League with 48 ribbies.

The question now is whether or not the offense can be sustained for the rest of the season. We don’t mean scoring 10 runs every night, but not reverting to the performance of April and May, when the batting attack was well below league average.

If it can, it could have a bearing on how long Shane Bieber remains a Guardian. The rumors are out there, but it will be interesting to see what the front office will do as currently Cleveland is just 2.5 games off the AL Central lead.

Yes, we know the former Cy Young Award winner’s velocity is down, and his strikeout numbers are as well. He also gives the team six innings per start and his ERA is a respectable 3.57.

With Gavin Williams on the horizon, there is a though the front office could move the veteran from a position of strength, but remember, management also wants to keep on eye on the number of innings Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Williams will pitch this season, and Bieber can help with that.

Plus, he’s easily the starter with the most experience on the staff, and that can be a help down the stretch.

We do have an issue with some of the players we see people coveting for Bieber. Several of those guys are in A ball. The Guardians won 92 games a year ago, so they are not looking for someone who will help them in 2-3 years, at least not as the primary piece in a deal.

If they deal for a hitter, they want someone who can help right now. Also, remember the philosophy of the organization is contact. They want players who have good contact skills and then teach them to drive the ball.

The schedule isn’t getting easier, but the Guardians are starting to resemble the pesky squad that one the division title. Let’s hope that continues.

Guardians Can’t Get Traction, And Know When To Question Tito

Treading water. Two steps forward, one step back. Stagnant.

These are all words that can be used to describe the Cleveland Guardians’ season to date. They are 28-33 after 61 games, and almost half of their games have been decided by one run, 29 of them, and they are 12-17.

By the way, winning one run games is pretty much luck. Bad teams can do well in them. The Kansas City Royals are 18-43 for the season. They are 7-6 in one run games. The Oakland A’s are 8-11 in these contests, and they are 13-50.

Sixty games into the season, and the Guards haven’t swept a series, and they’ve only been swept in a series once, that by the New York Mets.

Because of all of the close games, the decisions made by Terry Francona become magnified by fans, and most of the second guessing comes from emotion. Never forget that the word “fan” is derived from fanatic.

And we understand the frustration. We have said many, many times that Francona is not infallible, he makes mistakes. All managers do, but we don’t watch every game of other teams, so people don’t see the mistakes.

When a team’s bullpen isn’t going well, particularly the back end of it, the failures get magnified. While Emmanuel Clase hasn’t been as dominant as last year, he still leads the league in saves, and he’s only allowed one home run and walked just seven batters.

Getting to Clase has been the issue. The two primary set up men starting the year, James Karinchak and Trevor Stephan, have been prone to the long ball, and giving up dingers turn around games in a hurry. Enyel De Los Santos has been getting the job done, but he coughed up a lead on in the opener vs. Boston.

So, what does the skipper do? Our guess is he will go back to Karinchak and Stephan, with some Sam Hentges mixed in. We’ll see how that works out.

To us, the more concerning thing is the continued playing of guys who simply aren’t producing. We understand it’s a long season, but 61 games have been played, and while we are not saying to release anyone, the continuation of writing their names in the lineup every day is an organizational problem.

The Guardians’ best position playing prospect is Bo Naylor, and he is playing at the highest level of the minor leagues. The current Cleveland catchers rank last in the American League in WAR (wins above replacement player).

Is the organization really telling us Naylor couldn’t help the big league club? We have noted that Naylor has walked 46 times at Columbus. Mike Zunino and Cam Gallagher have combined to walk 16 times. At the very least, Naylor would make less outs than the catchers in Cleveland.

The second lowest rank in WAR among positions is shortstop. The Guardians’ roster and minor league system are loaded with highly ranked middle infielders. Do the Guards need to play Amed Rosario each night or could we look at possible alternatives that possibly could do better.

If you want to question Francona or the front office about something, these latter two issues would be better things to complain about.

Keep in mind though, that usually their patience gets rewarded, like the use of Josh Naylor vs. left-handed pitching.

The easiest thing to second guess is bullpen usage, because if the pitcher who comes in doesn’t do their job, the Guardians lose. The problem is everything is magnified because the offense hasn’t been doing its job and every other game is decided by one run.

Analyzing The Browns? To Us, It’s All On Watson

Every once in a while, we talk about the sports media in northeast Ohio being obsessed by the Cleveland Browns. We have three major league professional sports teams in the area, but we believe it is safe to say at least 85% of the coverage, both print and broadcast wise, is focused on the NFL team in town.

Over the past two weeks, the organized team activities (OTAs) have taken place, and from what we have heard and read, we believe the Browns have a solid chance to win the OTA Super Bowl, because they have looked great these past two weeks.

Really, they are a glorified practice without pads and in shorts, akin to playing touch football. Now, we understand the coaching staff has started to put the schemes in place, so the players will be ready with training camp open for real at the end of July.

So, we aren’t saying they aren’t important, but remember, this week’s activities are the only ones that are mandatory. Players don’t have to attend, and some of the team’s best players have not been there, but somehow Myles Garrett is the one who appears to have been singled out by many folks.

Those critics will claim Garrett should be there because he’s a leader on the team, but we think Nick Chubb and Joel Bitonio are both important voices in the locker room, and neither have appeared at the OTAs. What makes Garrett different?

We are sure Garrett has been in contact with Kevin Stefanski and new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and is up to speed on what the team is doing these past two weeks. Heck, he may be talking to both of them on an everyday basis.

If those two aren’t concerned, then the media and public shouldn’t be either, not that we would know if anyone in Berea is upset. They generally don’t tell anyone anything.

But we digress.

There is so much conversation about the Browns when really the evaluation of this football team is quite simple to us. It hinges on QB Deshaun Watson.

Quite simply, if Watson plays like he did in his last three seasons in Houston, the Browns will be playoff contenders at the very least.

In those three years, Watson completed 68.3%, 67.3%, and 70.2% of his throws and had at least 3800 passing yards in each, culminating in a league leading 4823 yards in 2020. Houston went 11-5 in the first of those years, and 10-6 in the second, before their defense allowed the sixth most points in the NFL in ’20, resulting in a 4-12 record.

If Watson plays like he did in his six game return a year ago, with a 58.2% completion rate, then the Browns will not be any good, and likely will be looking for a new coach for 2024.

And if the latter occurs, Cleveland is basically screwed because of the enormous price the franchise paid for Watson, which of course included three first-round draft picks.

It would also start once again the search for a franchise quarterback, something the Browns have been looking for since Bernie Kosar started getting banged up physically. That’s a road no one should be willing to revisit.

So, whether people like it or not, it’s all on Watson. Personally, we feel he was one of the top five QBs in the sport in Houston and we see no reason why he cannot return to that form.

However, it’s seeming weird that folks want to invent all kinds of other scenarios for the Browns’ success. They added a top-notch defensive coordinator with a history of success.

The roster is dotted with stars on both sides of the ball.

If Watson is the Watson of old, there is no reason for not having a playoff season.