The Weird Twists And Turns For Guardians This Year

We don’t think anyone could debate this has been a weird season for the Cleveland Guardians. They were coming off a 92 win season and a playoff appearance, and the front office even signed free agents to fill holes.

It just didn’t work out. The Guardians’ longest win streak all season has been four games, which coincidentally is also their longest losing streak. They just couldn’t build any momentum, either positive or negative all season long.

It was a season filled with weirdness and here were some of the strangest things we saw this year.

1). They carried three catchers most of the season, but started the season with Meibrys Viloria as the third backstop. He was on the roster for the first 35 games of the season, playing in 10 games, accumulating four plate appearances.

Talk about a waste of a roster spot.

2). After years of dominating the AL Central, the Guardians had a terrible time in the division this season, pretty much an explanation for their below .500 record. They won the series vs. Minnesota, ironically, but are just 15-21 against the other three teams who have a combined record of 181-278 (.394).

Weirdly enough, they’ve held their own against the teams likely to play in the post-season in the American League, going 27-24 vs. Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Houston, Seattle and Texas.

3). How about Zach Plesac’s fall from grace. Yes, he didn’t have a good year in 2022, but he still had a 4.31 ERA and allowed 136 hits in 131.1 innings.

This year, he simply imploded, allowing 18 earned runs in 21 innings and was sent to the minors by early May after just five starts, and designated for assignment later on. And to support the organization’s decision, he compiled a 6.08 ERA in AAA.

A far cry from his first two years in the bigs in 2019 and 2020.

4). The 1968 World Champion Detroit Tigers’ had a shortstop named Ray Oyler, who hit .135 for the season in 247 plate appearances. Cam Gallagher only has 142 times at bat, but he’s hitting .130 as the Guardians’ back up catcher, and somehow made it through the season on the big league roster.

He survived even though David Fry came up from AAA and demonstrated the ability to do a solid job behind the plate, and can swing the bat a bit.

5). How many times did Myles Straw, one of the league’s worst hitters with an OPS of 575 with a single home run on the year, bat in the late innings with the game on the line? In high leverage situations, Straw hit .198 with a 500 OPS.

And Terry Francona appeared irritated when asked why he didn’t pinch hit for Straw in these situations.

6). Speaking of Fry, he pitched more innings for the Guardians this season than August 31st waiver pick up Matt Moore. Fry went four innings on a Labor Day blowout loss against Minnesota, and Moore pitched in five games totaling 4.2 innings before being put on waivers again and being claimed by Miami.

7). Emmanuel Clase leads the AL in saves, and likely will do so for the second straight year. He also became the first Cleveland pitcher to have 40+ saves in consecutive seasons.

He also blew 12 save opportunities. He did that despite allowing just 2 home runs on the season. It seemed every softly hit ball against him found a hole, or the team played bad defense behind him.

It didn’t help that Cleveland had so many close games.

We didn’t even go into the voodoo that left-handed pitchers do to the team.

Hopefully, the Guardians don’t add to the strange doings on in the last week of this disappointing season.

Biggest Browns Issue? Stop Turning Over the Football

Cleveland Browns’ fans still have to be shaken up after the season ending injury to Nick Chubb in Monday night’s loss to Pittsburgh. We know Chubb had a severe knee injury in his college days, but he seemed indestructible since coming to the Browns.

The organization won’t give up on the season though, so there are still 15 games remaining and the focal point of the offense now has to be QB Deshaun Watson.

We said before the year started that the fate of the season depended on how well Watson played, and if he didn’t play well, the Browns were essentially screwed.

It’s only two games, but Watson is still struggling, completing just 55.1% of his passes, just 5.6 yards per attempt and a quarterback rating of 69.1, which is 30th in the league, ahead of just rookie Bryce Young and Zach Wilson.

He’s behind Kenny Pickett, who looked terrible against the Browns on Monday.

He has to be better than that if the Browns want to make the playoffs.

Of course, after a Browns’ loss, the critics of Kevin Stefanski have returned complaining about play calling. What if we told you Cleveland ranked sixth in the NFL in yards gained after two weeks?

That’s where they are. They are moving the football. The problem is turnovers, as the Browns’ six have them just one behind the Vikings for the most in the league. Stop turning it over, and we think the offense will be just fine.

Besides turnovers, we have to talk about the offensive line. The interior of the line is fine with guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller and center Ethan Pocic. Rookie Dawand Jones has stepped in for Jack Conklin and has more than held his own.

But like a lot of units, it is only as good as its weakest member and right now Jedrick Wills is not playing well. Pittsburgh put a lot of pressure on Watson. Now, we understand Watson sacks himself at times, and he is fifth in being sacked with nine.

At what point though does Stefanski and offensive line coach Bill Callahan make Wills accountable for his play? It appears he is the weak link in an otherwise pretty strong unit. We don’t know what the alternative would be, but it will be a problem going forward because that’s where opponents are going to attack.

We recognize the Steelers do not have a high-powered offense, but it certainly looks like the Cleveland defense is approaching elite status if they remain healthy. Pittsburgh basically had one good offensive play all night, and the unit has allowed less than 100 yards rushing in both games.

That’s a vast improvement from the sieve against the run it was last year.

Certainly, the Browns will see offenses better than Pittsburgh in the coming weeks, but it appears the new coordinator and the new personnel have made a great difference in this unit.

As for the loss of Chubb, there is no replacing him. That’s what happens when you are the best at what you do. But we are sure Stefanski will still want to run the football and Andrew Berry will find another running back to help pick up the slack.

That said, the focal point of the offense is gone, and it is up to everyone else, particularly Watson to improve. That doesn’t mean he needs to throw for 400 yards every week though.

For us, we think the next most explosive player the Browns have on offense is TE David Njoku and Cleveland needs to find a way to get him the ball more often.

Cleveland suffered a blow with the injury to Chubb, but it becomes a worse situation if they let his absence ruin what should be a promising season.

How Does Rotation Check Out For Guardians in ’24?

Most of the focus in looking forward to 2024 for the Cleveland Guardians has centered around improving the hitting and rightly so. It is well documented that the Guards are 12th in the American League in runs scored, and make no mistake, in the regular season, if you can’t score you don’t win.

Of the teams scoring above the league average in runs per game, only the Red Sox and Angels are below the .500 mark. You have to put runs on the board.

But what about the pitching, which for years has been the strength of the Guardians’ franchise. The organization likes to refer to the “pitching factory”.

(Our comment has been to ask when the “hitting factory” will be built, and we get that is being snarky).

With the injuries to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill this season, a new core of young pitchers has emerged. Tanner Bibee (10-4, 2.98 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 142 innings), Gavin Williams (3-5, 3.29 ERA, 81 Ks in 82 IP), and Logan Allen (7-7, 3.60 ERA, 118 Ks in 122.1 IP) have certainly earned spots in next season’s rotation.

The biggest question mark has to be the health of McKenzie, who has made just two starts this season and with a strained ligament in his elbow, it wouldn’t be a shock if Tommy John surgery is in his future and that would put him out for the season.

That brings us to Bieber, who has missed significant parts of the season in two of the last three seasons and will be a free agent following the ’24 season. He isn’t the guy who won the Cy Young Award in 2020, but he still is a quality starter. Would he be interested in a short-term extension because of the injuries?

And you have Quantrill, who’s last three starts since coming back from a shoulder issue have been very good. Many people complain about him, but really, if he’s your fifth starter, you have a pretty solid rotation.

And you still have Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and southpaw Joey Cantillo (6-4, 4.09 ERA, 142 Ks in 114 IP, but with 63 walks at AAA and AA this season).

Rotation depth is needed as we saw with the club this season.

It is doubtful that Cleveland can put together a package for Lucas Giolito this winter that would satisfy him and his agent this winter, so we would consider that a longshot.

But if the front office is doing their job (and we have confidence) they have to figure one of the young trio will fall off a bit from outstanding rookie seasons.

We would also consider moving Eli Morgan back into a starting role. Morgan had a 3.45 ERA in the second half of 2021 as a starter, striking out 49 hitters in 44.1 innings. We would do this because Morgan gives up too many long balls to flourish in the bullpen.

If Bieber is dealt and McKenzie cannot pitch in ’24, the front office will have to explore other options for the rotation, perhaps a large one-year contract for Giolito or rolling the dice with Gaddis, Curry, and Morgan.

The starting rotation is easily the strength of the team, but the organization cannot get complacent.

And remember one thing Terry Francona has always said: When you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

Have Guardians Mishandled Middle Infield Prospects

Following the 2021 season, the Cleveland Guardians had five prospects who were consensus top 100 players, and three were middle infielders: Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, and Gabriel Arias.

At that time, Cleveland had Amed Rosario as the starting shortstop and also had 22-year-old Andres Gimenez, the biggest piece the organization received in the Francisco Lindor trade. Gimenez hit .218 with 5 homers and 18 RBIs (633 OPS) in 188 at bats that season, so he hadn’t established himself as of yet.

Two years later, and the three highly rated prospects are still kind of in limbo.

Arias was given the starting shortstop job after Rosario was moved at this year’s trading deadline, after spending the first part of the year playing first base and right field.

Since assuming the position on August 1st, Arias has batted .218 (29 for 133) with 5 HR and 15 runs batted in, a 632 OPS.

Freeman has received sporadic playing time all year, hitting .240 with a 631 OPS, and Rocchio has spent most of the season in Columbus, hitting .284 with a 796 OPS, but in 70 plate appearances in the big leagues, he hit .242 with a 574 OPS, striking out 22 times.

The point here is not to criticize the players, but rather question the organization for kind of mangling the entire situation.

The purpose of having prospects is to keep the talent flow going through the organization or to use them to get players who are needed at the big-league level. And if you have someone blocking that player and you believe in them, you can move them to another position.

A good example is Jose Ramirez. Ramirez played primarily second base in the minor leagues, but when he was coming up the then Indians had Jason Kipnis, a solid player at his position. So, they moved Ramirez to third base, where he has become a perennial all-star.

So, with the situation for Cleveland after the ’21 season, a decision should have been made to either trade Rosario, making room for Arias, Freeman, or Rocchio, trade one or two of the trio, or moving them to another position.

You could say they tried the latter for Arias, and is his case, he also had some injuries during last year, but again, we are saying this decision should have been made prior to last season.

It is very likely that all three’s value has been diminished since the lack of decision after the 2021 season. They are no longer prospects, so now they are simply young players who have never proven anything at the major league level.

Rocchio might have the highest trade value right now, because he’s had a pretty solid year at AAA.

And compounding this situation is that the Guardians have Jose Tena, who is currently on the big-league roster and Juan Brito, who came over in the trade for Nolan Jones this off-season.

By the way, we have advocated for position changes for Freeman and Brito about a month ago.

It seems like the front office seems reticent to make a mistake, trading the wrong player. But you also have to strike while the iron is hot. We aren’t saying it is easy, but trading a prospect at the right time is an art.

However, what the Guardians have done is not taken advantage of the number of high prospect middle infielders they’ve had and converting them into players they could use.

Instead, they’ve become marginal big leaguers who they can’t find at bats for.

Much like telling a pitcher to “trust his stuff”, the Guardians’ front office needs to trust their judgment. Two years later, they still have a lot of middle infield prospects who are ranked highly.

Let’s see if they have learned from their mistake.

Hope Guardians’ Front Office Knows What They Don’t Know

The Cleveland Guardians have just 15 games remaining in what has been a very disappointing season.

Before the season we said it was very difficult to project how the team would do because most of the players had no proven track record because they were so young and had no experience.

For example, it was probably fool’s gold to say Jose Ramirez would duplicate what he did last season, which was likely a career year. But since Ramirez has been the league for a long time, you can feel pretty confident in saying he will hit 25 home runs, knock in 90-100, and bat around .280.

You couldn’t say that about anyone else projected to be in this season’s starting lineup.

Last season, Andres Gimenez was spectacular, hitting 17 homers and batting .297 with an 837 OPS. This season, his batting average has dropped to .242, his power has dropped 12 dingers.

What kind of player is Gimenez? Defensively, he has remained great, deserving of a second Gold Glove. Offensively? We will likely find out next season. We think you can figure somewhere in the middle, around a 760 OPS which with his glove, makes him a middle infield starter.

Where? He may move back to shortstop, and frankly, he would be our first choice at the position.

Steven Kwan has been reliable compared to most of the balance of the starting lineup, but his numbers have also regressed, dropping from a 772 OPS in ’22 to 715 in ’23. Most of that drop has been his on base percentage, which is .341 compared to .372 a year ago.

If Kwan can get to .350, he’s a solid leadoff hitter and we still think he can become a guy who can get to 10 homers on a yearly basis.

The only players who have exceeded expectations among the everyday players share the same last name: Naylor.

Josh is heading into his prime and raised his OPS from 771 to 849. If not for an oblique injury which cost him August, we would have knocked in 100 runs and still could do it with a hot finish. Again, he’s just 26 years old.

Bo Naylor has greatly improved the team’s offense at the catcher position. Last season, Austin Hedges and Luke Maile combined for 10 homers and 47 RBIs, and a .185 batting average.

Naylor has a 757 OPS, third best on the team for players with over 100 at bats. Why he doesn’t hit higher in the order, particularly in the last month when he has compiled a 1045 OPS (.315 average, 4 HR, 10 RBI) is one of the great mysteries surrounding the team.

Of course, he will go into next season in the same boat as Gimenez and Kwan. That is, with no track record.

So, unless some experienced players are brought in, the Guardians won’t be in a much different position entering 2024. If players like Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman are starting, no one will have any idea how they will be able to contribute offensively.

It will still be dependent on Ramirez and Josh Naylor to provide offense and that doesn’t seem like a recipe for success.

An Opening Week Beatdown For The Browns

Last year, the Cleveland Browns were a sieve defensively against the run. At least in week one, the defense run by new coordinator Jim Schwartz solved that issue, allowing just 75 yards on the ground in a dominating 24-3 win over Cincinnati.

And although there is endless talk about Deshaun Watson and how he will do at quarterback, at the Browns’ core they are a running football team, and in most NFL games, if you run for over 200 yards, you will achieve victory.

Cleveland ran for 206 against the Bengals.

It was a day not suited for an aerial extravaganza, and we saw the impatient Browns’ fans on social media complaining that Watson wasn’t any better than last season, in which he only played the last six games, but he was the better QB on the field on Sunday.

Watson hit 16 of 29 passes for 154 yards and ran five times for 45 yards and a touchdown. Yes, he missed some throws, but we are willing to attribute that to playing with a wet football, and we are willing to do that because Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow was just 14 of 31 for 82 yards.

It was only a good day if you were a duck.

No doubt the Browns will need Watson to play better as the season goes on, perhaps as early as next Monday night. But we aren’t going to panic because of the conditions. In fact, at halftime, we thought that Watson has yet to play a game in Cleveland with the Browns where the conditions have been nice.

Overall, this was a day for the defense and Nick Chubb.

The longest play Cincinnati had all day was a 22 yard run by Joe Mixon, and the longest pass play was a 12 yard toss from Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase. Think about that again, the longest pass play was 12 yards.

From an offense run by a player almost universally considered the second best at his position in the league.

Cleveland had only two sacks, by newcomer Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and of course, Myles Garrett, who passed Clay Matthews on the all-time team sack list according to ProFootballReference.com for second place. He needs two more to tie Bill Glass for the top spot in Browns’ history.

The Bengals ran just 56 offensive plays for the contest, gaining a paltry 142 yards.

We wondered watching the game how it may have unfolded with last year’s defensive coordinator.

As for Chubb, what more can we say about the man who should be considered the best running back in the league. By the way, he also caught four passes for 21 yards. When he carries the football, we always think he is about to break one for a long gain.

Jerome Ford did fumble, but also picked up 36 yards and it should have been more except he was bottled up a bit late in the game, when it was basically garbage time. He did have a 17 yard gain, but we will have to see going forward if ball security will be an issue.

So, it’s on to Pittsburgh for a Monday Night game against a team that will no doubt be very angry after getting crushed in their opener. And the Browns will be using a rookie right tackle in huge Dawand Jones, who is now the starter with Jack Conklin’s injury.

Look for T.J. Watt and the Steelers to test the rookie and make life tough on Watson.

We are sure the Browns will be prepared for it.

It wasn’t just the victory that makes us optimistic, it was the dominating nature of the win. But you are only as good as your next performance in the NFL.

Guardians Should Heed Peter Brand: “He Gets On Base”

There is a famous scene in the movie “Moneyball” where in a meeting of talent evaluators, GM Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, brings up a player and asks the group why he likes that player.

The assistant GM Peter Brand (really Paul DePodesta) played by Jonah Hill replies “he gets on base”.

That is a credo the Cleveland Guardians should use going forward toward 2024.

We all understand the Guardians need power too. They are last in all of baseball with just 106 home runs and rank 13th the American League in slugging percentage. We know they stress contact, striking out the least in the league, but are only 9th in the AL in on base percentage.

If you don’t have power, you better have a lot of guys getting on base. You see, “he gets on base” translates to “he doesn’t make outs”.

The three best Cleveland players to avoid making outs are Jose Ramirez with a .349 on base average, with Josh Naylor at .347, followed by Steven Kwan at .340. The next best player is Bo Naylor at .320.

The two players who joined the Guardians in August, veterans Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano are next at .319 and .318 each.

And since the game of baseball is measured by 27 outs, having guys who make a lot of outs is not good in terms of scoring runs.

We aren’t sure the front office thinks getting on base (err, not making outs) is a valuable skill. For exhibit A, we present Yandy Diaz.

Diaz certainly wasn’t the hitter he is today in Tampa (889 OPS), but what he did do here was get on base. He had a .361 OBP in the 88 games he played in Cleveland in 2017-18.

Last season, the Guardians traded two young outfielders, Nolan Jones and Will Benson. Their on base averages in AAA were .388 and .396 respectively. To be fair, they did receive Juan Brito for Jones, and he has a career .393 OBP in the minors to date.

The player they kept instead, Will Brennan, had a .367 OBP at the AAA level. This isn’t to bash Brennan, who seems to have improved after a mid-season slump. But he’s walked 12 times all season, less than Mike Zunino and the same number of times as Calhoun.

By the way, Jones and Benson both have a .367 OBP in the major leagues this season. That number would be the highest on the 2023 Guardians.

What is we told you they have a player on their current roster who got on base at a .393 clip at the AAA level? That player is Tyler Freeman and they can’t find a place for him right now.

We are sure there are other examples, but in 2016, Cleveland had veteran switch-hitter Robbie Grossman in training camp. Grossman has a career mark of getting on base at a .344 clip. Grossman played part of ’16 with Columbus, before being released in May.

He went to Minnesota, where he recorded OBPs of .386, .361, and .367 over the next three seasons.

We think the Cleveland organization is searching for the long ball so much, they are forgetting there are two aspects to offense, and the ability to get on base is one of them. And quite frankly, it’s probably easier to identify and obtain.

Remember this, a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage simply went 1 for 4 with a HR. A game in which a team had a 1.000 OBP would never end.

Sorry. There Is Room For “Old School” Baseball.

We want to apologize to anyone who will be offended by this piece.

We have been very free about our age. We started following the Cleveland Indians in 1965 as a youngster and baseball became and still is our favorite sport. However, the way the sport is viewed now is kind of disturbing.

We were talking with some longtime friends about the game about a week ago, and one of them said they remembered when a guy who hit .250 was considered an average player, a JAG (just another guy) in today’s vernacular.

We brought up that someone asked us if we thought Dave Kingman (302/478/780, 442 career home runs) was a good player back in the day. Kingman played from 1971-86. We replied no, and that no one else thought he was good either. He made just three all-star teams in his career.

When Bill James wrote The Baseball Abstract, it changed our view of the game. We grew up thinking you had to have speedy players at the top of the order, batting average was king, etc. But reading that book, we realized the job of the leadoff man was to get on base, no matter how good a defender you are, you have to be able to hit, and many other things.

The advanced statistics started by the sabermetric movement have value, no question about it. However, it should not be the only prism the game is viewed through, and James himself will tell you that.

Batting average isn’t meaningless. It measures how many hits a batter gets in his at bats. It may be less important than on base percentage, but it shouldn’t be ignored.

Someone once told us that analytics get used as a fallback for when something is tried, and it doesn’t work. Coaches or managers can say “the numbers” said it was the correct decision. Sometimes it’s true, but people need to realize that sometimes it isn’t.

The game is still about getting 27 outs and scoring more runs than your opponent. One of the reasons that sacrifice bunting has all but disappeared from the sport is that James and other pointed out that the number of outs in a game is precious and a team shouldn’t give one up unless it provided a huge advantage.

The way MLB has promoted itself hasn’t helped. They focus on the raw athleticism of today’s players, which is nice, but as former player John Kruk once famously said “I’m not an athlete, I’m a baseball player”.

There is considerable focus on hitting the ball hard or the speed of pitches, neither of which helps to win a game. Now, we agree that if you hit the ball hard consistently, you will very likely succeed in the sport, but it isn’t a necessity.

For example, Whit Merrifield, Charlie Blackmon, and Geraldo Perdomo all rank near the bottom of average exit velocity, but all three are solid offensive players. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s M.J. Melendez is in the top 10 in this category. He has a 713 OPS.

It probably bodes well for Melendez’ future, but that’s why it should be a supporting statistic.

Strikeouts aren’t a big deal anymore, but when there is a runner on third with less than two out it is. How many times in today’s game do you see a team get a leadoff double and the runner never moves. The “get ’em over and get ’em in” rules no longer apply.

Hopefully, the new rules enacted by the sport this year start reversing the launch angle era and get back to the fundamentals of the sport. We don’t want to take away from the entertainment and showmanship in the game these days, but playing the right way isn’t a bad thing.

Optimistic About Browns As Season Opens

September is here and that means football is just around the corner. The Cleveland Browns will open their 2023 season this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals and at least locally, everyone is poised for a good season.

We aren’t going to make a prediction for a playoff spot because the AFC by all expert accounts are loaded, with every team in the conference, save for Houston and Indianapolis being a threat for double digit victory totals.

However, we will say that as it usually happens a few of the other teams will stumble early and not be a part of the playoff chase, such as what happened to Denver and Las Vegas a year ago.

We will say the Browns are talented enough to be in the mix for a post-season berth until week 18 and they should win at least 10 games which on the surface should be enough to quell a late season discussion of whether or not Kevin Stefanski should keep his job, which is the most popular topic on sports talk radio every late autumn and early winter.

Cleveland should be better because their defense should be much improved. The Browns ranked 25th in the league against the run last season, and the only team ranked behind them that won 10 games was the Chargers.

Overall, the defense ranked 15th, but there’s a new sheriff in town in veteran defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who likes to go after opposing quarterbacks.

Last year’s defense seemed to sit back, play zone, and hope Myles Garrett would get to the passer. This year, we think the plan is to play more man-to-man and GM Andrew Berry has added a cadre of players who can rush the QB.

That alone should make Cleveland better.

Offensively, the key is Deshaun Watson, who Berry gave up a boatload of draft capital to obtain. If he plays to the level he performed at in Houston, the Browns should have a prolific offense.

They have all the ingredients.

They have a very good offensive line led by guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller. Hopefully, Jedrick Wills improves, and Jack Conklin stays healthy, but for the latter there seems to be depth with James Hudson and the massive rookie Dewand Jones in reserve.

Nick Chubb should be considered the best running back in the game currently, coming off a 1500 yard season.

David Njoku should be used more often because he has big play capabilities, and the wide receiver corps is solid, led by Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Stefanski’s newest toy, Elijah Moore.

It should be a complimentary attack. If opposing teams decide to stop Watson, Chubb should have a big game and vice versa.

But as we have been saying all off-season, everything starts with Watson returning to his early career form, when he led Houston to 11-5 and 10-6 records and a playoff win in 2019. His 2020 season, his last full campaign, was prolific even if the Texans finished 4-12. He led the NFL in passing yardage and yards per attempt.

If the Watson we see is the one who finished the last six games in ’22? Well, disregard those hopes for a winning season, and without another first round pick next season, it could be more years of pain for Browns’ fans.

We don’t think that will be the case, but even though it hasn’t been because of injury, the last time Watson was a very good QB in the NFL was three years ago.

It’s a tough conference for sure, and the Browns probably play in the NFL’s toughest division. We still see at least a 10 win season. The talent is there.

Offense Has To Improve For Guards In ’24

The Cleveland Guardians used the end of August to add to their pitching staff, but didn’t do anything to improve their hitting.

They should get Josh Naylor back any day now (perhaps today!) and without question Kole Calhoun and Ramon Laureano have added something to the ability to score runs.

Calhoun has had a number of big hits, including a big double in last Sunday’s win over Toronto and the huge three run homer in the series finale in Minnesota.

The grizzled veteran has 16 RBIs in the 21 games he has been in a Cleveland uniform. By contrast, Oscar Gonzalez has played in 51 games this season, driving in 11. And Laureano had a nice series up north, hitting a pair of long balls.

He has a 688 OPS in the 20 contests he has played here, comparing that to Will Brennan (648) or Myles Straw (604).

This is exactly what we meant when we said the front office should have added some talent at the end of July, even if it meant the team only got better incrementally. It doesn’t always have to be a big splash.

Heading to 2024, the offense needs to get better, a lot better. Bill James says a hitter who has a .350 on base percentage and a .450 slugging percentage is a very good offensive player, demonstrating the ability to get on base and drive the ball.

Right now, Cleveland has one of these players, and of course it is Jose Ramirez, who has a .351 OBP and a .481 slugging average. Josh Naylor is close, getting on base at a .346 clip and slugging at .500.

No other Guardian with 100 at bats can claim to be over those thresholds individually, let alone together. The next best player at getting on base is Steven Kwan at .337, and the next best slugger is Bo Naylor at .430.

By contrast, the Texas Rangers, who lead the AL in runs scored have just two hitters (Corey Seager and Mitch Garver) who are over both the .350/.450 guideline. But they have four players who get on base over 35% of the time and Marcus Semien is sitting at .346.

FYI, they are very close to having four of these guys, because along with Semien, Nathaniel Lowe is slashing 374/447/821.

They also have six players who are slugging over .450.

Houston is third in runs scored, and they have five hitters who get on base at a 35% clip and five hitters who slug .450.

Tampa is second in the league in runs scored, and they have three players with an on base percentage over .350 and they have six players who have a slugging average over .450.

So, the challenge for the Guardians’ front office is to find more players who can get on base, we would say at least two of them, and find two or three players who can drive the ball.

Bo Naylor might fill one of those roles.

Of the teams that strike out the least in the AL, the Guardians have by far the least amount of homers with 103. The next lowest total of teams in the top five in contact? The Baltimore Orioles with 156!

Of that top five, Cleveland has also drawn the least amount of walks with 382. Boston is the next lowest at 413.

Making contact while hitting home runs can be done, the Guardians either have to find them or develop them. But having players who make contact, but don’t get on base and don’t get a lot of home runs doesn’t work.

It’s a big challenge for the Guardians’ front office this winter.