As I am writing this, the New York Mets’ trade for Johan Santana is still in negotiations. The stumbling block is the number of years on the new contract the lefty must sign for the deal to go through. Santana and his agent want six or seven years, and the Mets are hesitant to make a commitment for that many years. This brings me to the Tribe and their negotiations with Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia. If Sabathia’s agent wants a Barry Zito type contract in terms of length, he won’t be signing with the Indians.
The fact that a large market team like the Mets is questioning signing a hurler to a six or seven-year deal brings to mind the poor success rates of these types of deals for pitchers. Think about Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, and Zito. All signed deals for more than five years. The first two missed significant time during that pact with injuries, and Zito was ineffective in his first year with the Giants. Most guys who pitch in the big leagues for extended periods have some sort of arm injuries at one point in time. It’s a huge risk to pay $18 million a year for a player who will not help you in a season.
If Sabathia leaves for a six or seven year deal, I can hear the howling now about the cheapness of the Dolan family. However, it won’t be the money. It will be the fear of having a $20 million contract on the books in 2015 and getting nothing in return. I still maintain the Tribe will be willing to hit the $20 million per year threshold on the big left hander, but it would have to be for four years with a club option for a fifth season. Anything beyond that will mean Sabathia will be wearing a different uniform in 2009.
What should the Indians do? Santana’s deal will likely set a framework for Mark Shapiro. You can bet the Tribe GM is hoping for the Mets to be tough and not give the “former” Twin more than five years. That would make it easier to him to keep C.C. If the Mets go to six years, should the Tribe start shopping their ace? That would depend on the feel Shapiro gets from Sabathia’s agent. I understand the Tribe thinks they can make the post-season and get to the World Series, but on the other hand, they can’t afford to let the big lefty leave and get nothing in return.
The Indians tried to get Dan Haren from the A’s as a possible ace in waiting should they not be able to sign Sabathia. Eric Bedard’s name has been bandied about lately in a deal with the Mariners, and if the Tribe could jump in there and get the Orioles’ lefty, he also could replace C.C. in ’09. The Cleveland pitching cupboard would not be bare if Fausto Carmona is the real deal, but he has had only one good year in the bigs. Shapiro is always getting pitching, and the impending free agency for Sabathia is one reason why. However, if the ball club would fall out of the race and talks aren’t progressing, the Tribe could deal C.C. before the July 31st deadline.
It’s a tough call. But you can bet Mark Shapiro is looking at the negotiations between the Mets and Johan Santana very, very closely. The length of that deal will go along way in determining whether or not the Indians can reach a deal with C.C. Sabathia. If the Mets hold firm, not only are they winners, but it could be a victory for the Tribe as well.
KM