The Cleveland Indians had a pretty good home stand, winning a pair of series, one over the Minnesota Twins and the other against the San Diego Padres, both taking two out of three.  The biggest reason for the resurgence is the offense, which seems to be showing signs of life, getting more than four runs in four out of the six games played at Progressive Field.  How and why is this happening?

It seems odd to say this, but the elimination of the injured Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner from the lineup has helped.  Martinez was an all-star last season, and one of the best offensive catchers in the game over the past four years, but with his injured elbow and hamstring, he was a shell of his former self.  Since Kelly Shoppach replaced Martinez, he has hit two home runs, two more than Victor has hit all season.  Since the beginning of May, Victor Martinez has been virtually a .200 hitter with no power.  What Shoppach did this week is indeed an upgrade offensively.

Having Pronk out has opened the door for more playing time for Shin-Soo Choo, and so far he has responded with 8 extra base hits and 8 walks in 14 games.  Hafner had 13 extra base knocks and 23 walks in 46 games played.  Therefore, Choo is already close to Pronk’s power numbers in less than one-third of the playing time.  The last two games against the Padres featured Franklin Gutierrez in the lineup over David Dellucci even though San Diego threw two right-handers.

Another reason for the improvement at the plate is that Asdrubal Cabrera and his .180 batting average is no longer in the batting order.  It was reported that Eric Wedge had to be convinced to send the youngster to Buffalo, because the skipper loved his defense.  Once again, it doesn’t matter how good someone is defensively, they cannot play regularly in the big leagues batting .180.  Jamey Carroll is now hitting .280, which is 100 points higher than Cabrera.  That makes a big difference to the Tribe, or any big league team for that matter.

Basically, at this point, the Indians have replaced three dead spots in their batting order with three people who are hitting average to above average in the last week.  That’s one third of the lineup.  This is not to say the Indians are once again the team to beat in the AL Central.  However, it does put them just 5-1/2 games behind the White Sox.  Heck, even the Tigers have played themselves back in the race in this division where no one can put together any consistency. 

Now, can someone please explain to us why Edward Mujica is still on the roster, let alone pitching with the game on the line Saturday night?  The young man might have a lot of potential, but right now, he gives up base hits by the carload.  Even in games’ where he doesn’t allow a run, he still usually gives up a couple of hits.  Why wouldn’t Wedge use Rick Bauer, who saved 15 games in AAA in a 3-3 game in the 10^th inning?  This is just another case of the skipper having no confidence in Bauer, so he gets ignored. 

Can the Indians keep hitting this week on the road against the Rockies and Dodgers?  We shall see.  The issues to watch this week are the pitching of Paul Byrd and Jeremy Sowers.  Byrd leads the AL in homers allowed, and will pitch in Coors Field.  Sowers has been struggling but has had some odd circumstances (like a 2-1/2 hour rain delay or two extra days of rest) in his last two outings.  We also get to see C.C. Sabathia bat in Los Angeles next weekend.

KM

The Cleveland Indians came into this season with great expectations, and why not?  They won 96 games in the regular season, defeated the New York Yankees in the Division Series, and had a 3-1 lead in the American League Championship Series, before dropping the final three games to the Boston Red Sox.  This was the year the front office was waiting for, a team that was a legitimate favorite to win the World Series.  No one had reason to doubt that.

The status of the team made for some poor decisions on how to handle injuries.  The front office figured their club was going to be in a tight race for the division title with the Detroit Tigers, so every game would be important.  When Joe Borowski’s velocity was down during training camp, he tried to gut it out to help the team win.  It was the wrong decision, because he wound up costing his ballclub two games trying to convince himself he could still get hitters out throwing an 80 MPH fastball.  His success as a closer is due to his intestinal fortitude, but in this case it got in the way.

The same thing happened with Victor Martinez, who suffered a hamstring injury on Opening Day.  In retrospect, the correct decision would have been to put him on the 15 day disabled list and heal the muscle completely.  However, because the Indians were contenders, it was important to get the all-star catcher back in the lineup right away.  Martinez’ hamstring still bothers him, and robbed him of the ability to drive the ball.  Instead of getting the normal Victor Martinez back, they instead got a guy who is basically a singles hitter batting in the fourth spot in the order.

Yesterday, the catcher left the game with an elbow injury that has apparently been bothering him for some time.  This is not to blame the Tribe for hiding injuries.  Most baseball people will say that after the first game of the season, no one is really healthy all year.  All players have aches, pains, and strains that affect their performance throughout the season.  It’s all a matter of how much pain they can play with, and still do their job. 

That being said, it’s time for Martinez to go on the disabled list for 15 days to heal his aching elbow and hamstring and help him be the real Victor Martinez for the balance of the season.  Some will say making this move will hurt the team by keeping him out of the lineup, but what will the team miss?  A singles hitter, who has been batting around .200 since the beginning of May.  Kelly Shoppach can do better than this, and the team can watch him play on an everyday basis as an added bonus.

There is no conspiracy theory on hiding injuries.  It’s all about competitive advantages.  Why let the other team know that Martinez has a bad elbow?  Why tell them Travis Hafner’s shoulder is robbing him of his power?  There is no reason to let them know.  Fans might think the ballclub is hiding something, but think about what Bill Belichick does with the injured list with the Patriots.  He puts virtually everyone on it.  It’s not concealing information, it’s smart business.

KM

The Cleveland Indians wake up this morning 8-1/2 games behind the first place White Sox in the AL Central Division.  Not to say we told you so, but the offensive explosion in Texas was indeed a combination of a hitter friendly ballpark and a poor Ranger pitching staff.  The Tribe went back to its sputtering attack in Motown, scoring just 10 runs in the first three games of the series.  Therefore, it’s time to start looking ahead to the 2009 season, because it doesn’t appear a repeat division title is in the cards in 2008.

The primary trading chip that GM Mark Shapiro has is, of course, C.C. Sabathia.  The big lefty will be a free agent at the end of this season, so the Tribe is not going to get a young, budding superstar in return.  However, dealing him to a National League team, and getting a hitter and a pitcher who are close to the big league level would be a start.  It would also be better than the two amateur draft choices the Indians would get if they held on to the Cy Young Award winner through the end of the year.  The Dodgers have a deep farm system, and might be the team to swing this type of deal in order to win the division in Joe Torre’s first year with the team.

What other veterans might have some market value?  Obviously, Paul Byrd is still an effective right-handed starter that could help a contender get over the top.  Also, David Dellucci might attract some interest from a team looking for a left-handed hitter with some pop.  GM Mark Shapiro should try to make a move with the latter as soon as he can, since Dellucci is taking at bats away from young players this team needs to play, guys like Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez.

It’s also time to cut bait with a few other veterans.  Casey Blake should have some value because he can play multiple positions and carries a decent stick.  Blake signed a huge, (for him) one-year contract for 2008, and it is unlikely Shapiro will do that again.  So, he likely will not be back in 2009.  The front office should also put out feelers on SS Jhonny Peralta, who is not showing any signs of becoming an all-star type player.  He has regressed from his breakout season of 2005, and his defense is average at best for the position he plays. 

Despite the outstanding starting pitching the Indians have had this season, it is clear the 2008 Indians do not have what it takes to make the playoffs as currently constituted.  Their offense and bullpen is simply not good enough.  Therefore, it’s also time to stop waiting for people to perform to past standards and try out some different personnel, especially in the bullpen.  Rafael Betancourt should be relegated to mop up work until he shows he is straightened out.  Manager Eric Wedge should take a look at Rick Bauer in the 7^th inning.  He wouldn’t be the first reliever to have a career revival in his early 30’s.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility to make a run this year, but it’s not going to happen with this group as it is.  Only a few years ago, the Phillies dealt Bobby Abreu, who was a free agent to be, and suddenly started to play better, almost making the playoffs as a wild card.  Maybe dealing Sabathia and/or Dellucci and Peralta would spur this team to play better.  Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge are very patient men, more patient that the fans, but it’s time to look ahead to the rest of ’08 and ’09, and quit remembering last year’s playoff team.

MW

A little baseball and a little basketball on tap today as the Tribe splits in Texas and a rumor involving the Cavaliers is out there as the NBA Finals start last night and the draft is less than three weeks away—

Indians.  We have been vehement is saying the main problem with this baseball team has been the offense, but the bullpen is most definitely the runner up.  Yesterday, there was a report that Rafael Betancourt was suffering from some back stiffness, which is why Jensen Lewis did not go back to Buffalo right away.  After last night’s performance against the Rangers, don’t be surprised if the right-hander goes on the disabled list before tonight’s series opener against Detroit.

It would be nice if the Tribe would call up a lefty reliever if they have to make a move today.  Rich Rundles is 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA and hitters are batting just .213 against him at Buffalo.  And he’s a southpaw, which the Indians need unless they are interested in seeing Rafael Perez’s arm fall off from overuse at some point in August or September.  Perez has pitched in almost half of the Tribe’s games, and he has not been used as a situational lefty, just facing one batter. 

Of course, you may remember Cleveland had a second left-hander in the bullpen.  His name was Craig Breslow, and he is now with the division rival Minnesota Twins, meaning the Indians will see him when they return home next week.  This next part is even crazier, they are actually using him, and if you watch Minnesota box scores, he is pitching all right.  This is the biggest problem with Eric Wedge, his refusal to use his entire 25-man roster.  They are here, and the owners are paying them, so the manager might as well find a way to use them.

Cavaliers.  There is an internet rumor saying the Indiana Pacers want to rid themselves of F/C Jermaine O’Neal’s bloated contract, and the Cavaliers are interested.  If true, the Cavs would give up the expiring contracts of Wally Szczerbiak and Eric Snow for O’Neal and the Pacers’ first round pick, the 11^th choice overall.  The key word here obviously is “if”. 

That deal should be made in a heartbeat.  Yes, O’Neal is 30 years old, and he has the knees of a 45-year-old man, and his contract is outrageous.  However, the Cavaliers are giving up nothing in the trade.  Snow will never play again, and Szczerbiak was a poor fit with this team despite his track record as a great shooter.  He never showed that ability here on a consistent basis. 

What makes the deal a good one is the inclusion of a second first round draft pick.  GM Danny Ferry would have two of the top 20 picks in the draft, which would allow him to bring in some young talent.  It would also put him in position to trade the two picks and move into an area where the elite players are, perhaps the top five picks.  As for the veteran, even though he seemingly gets injured walking down the street, he does have the ability to block shots, and might be able to stay healthy with reduced playing time.

Ferry has to do something, and getting another pick in the first round would be something that would be difficult to pass up.

KM/JK

Please don’t leap to conclusions that the hitting woes of the Cleveland Indians are starting to dissipate.  It’s a combination of the Texas Rangers’ poor pitching staff, and their launching pad of a ballpark.  If the Tribe continues to hit during the last two games of the series and during the weekend wrap around series in Detroit, then we will admit there is a light at the end of the tunnel.  Until then, color me unconvinced that anything is different.

Most new school baseball thinking is all about OPS, the addition of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  These people dismiss strikeouts as just another out.  That’s ridiculous thinking.  There are many times were putting the bat on the ball leads to a run.  For example, early in a game, putting the ball on the ground with a runner on third can result in scoring the run.  Striking out or popping up are wasted at bats.  Look at last night’s game in the third inning; the Tribe had the bases loaded with one out, only to see Ryan Garko pop up and Jhonny Peralta whiff.

Knowledge of the strike zone is one of the Indians’ biggest problems.  They consistently swing at pitches out of the zone, particularly those up.  That’s the reason for all of the pop ups and lazy fly balls.  Not being able to differentiate a ball from a strike is also the reason some of the Tribe’s young hitters do not develop, as they should.  Let’s take the case of Mr. Peralta.

First, it has been historically proven that most major league players hit their peak between the ages of 27 and 29.  Notice, the word used here is most.  There are exceptions to the rule.  In 2005, at the age of 23, Peralta hit .292 with 24 home runs and 78 RBI’s.  He had OPS of .886, an excellent figure, especially for a young player.  That season, the Tribe SS struck out 128 times in 504 at bats.  Unfortunately, Peralta’s inability to learn the strike zone has caused this to be his best season thus far.  He should be getting better until he hits 29 years old, and he is now 26.

However, the shortstop’s strikeouts continue to rise as he fanned 152 times in 2006, and 146 times last season, without an appreciable increase in walks.  This year, he is on pace for another 140 Ski’s.  Watching the games, anyone can see than the way to get him out is with fastballs up and in, or breaking balls low and away.  His strike zone judgment has not progressed to the point where he can take those pitches, and work himself into favorable hitters’ counts. 

No one wants to hear this, but Grady Sizemore is another Indian whose best year occurred at age 23, and although he is a very productive player, and his walks have increased, he still hasn’t improved his knowledge of the strike zone.  This team will continue to struggle at the plate until they can lay off the high fastball out of the zone, and the low and away breaking pitch.  Whose fault is it that this hasn’t changed?  That’s for you to decide.  However, isn’t that what the batting coach is supposed to teach?

KM

What happens when a team that has lost 10 out of its last 12 games plays a team that has lost 11 in a row?  We are about to find out tonight when the struggling Cleveland Indians start a three game series against the Kansas City Royals.  Don’t be surprised if all of the games are scoreless going into the 12^th inning because of the offensive ineptness of the two teams.  The Tribe needs to start a turnaround right away, but you have to believe the Royals are due for a win.

Do you think any team would replace a player who is hitting .240 with one who is batting .290?  Understand there are other things that go along with this; such as is the .240 guy hit for power versus the .290 hitter who is a slappy?  What we are talking about here are similar players, one hitting 50 points higher than the other.  In that case, most people would make the change to pick up the extra hits.  Not the Indians, however.  Let’s say Josh Barfield would conservatively hit .230 if he were called up to the big club.  That would be a 50-point jump over what Asdrubal Cabrera is currently hitting.

Yes, Cabrera is an outstanding defensive player.  He has made several highlight reel plays in the first third of the season.  However, no matter how good defensively you are, you can’t play everyday in the major leagues batting .180.  No one saves his team that many runs to make up for that horrible batting average, particularly when the alternative is a pretty good defender in Barfield.  This is not to say Barfield is the cure for the Tribe’s offensive woes, but he wouldn’t hurt the team.

Travis Hafner received a cortisone shot to help his aching shoulder, and if he can go tonight, he’ll be back in the lineup.  Any chance the Tribe can cure its woeful hitting attack rides on Pronk’s ability to resemble the player he was in 2005 and 2006.  Also, Ryan Garko is important as well.  Eric Wedge needs to put him back in the lineup on an everyday basis to get him going.  Michael Aubrey hit two homers in his brief time here, but he doesn’t look like the solution in the short term.  He should go back to Buffalo to play everyday.

Unless Hafner has to go on the disabled list, the guess here is Aubrey goes back when Shin-Soo Choo gets activated early next week.  Choo probably takes David Dellucci’s at bats against right-handers in a platoon with Franklin Gutierrez, that is, as long as Ben Francisco keeps hitting.  It would be nice if the team could find a way to drop Grady Sizemore in the order, but that’s not going to happen.

Since the front office asked Sizemore to be more selective in the leadoff spot, he’s hasn’t hit as well.  He raised his walk total to over 100 last season, but his extra base hit total dropped as well.  Perhaps he’s better suited to hitting down in the order where he can swing freely and drive the ball consistently.  Guys who can get 100 extra base hits in a year are far more valuable than guys that walk that many times.

MW

The Cleveland Indians snatched defeat from the jaws of a possible victory with more terrible situational hitting on Wednesday, as the Tribe had the tying and winning runs on base in the ninth inning with one out, and failed to score.  This has been a recurring theme with this ballclub, as they had an opportunity to bail out the bullpen, but failed to do so, and the Indians are now 5-1/2 games behind the front running White Sox after a 6-5 loss to the White Sox.

The ballclub parlayed an error and a walk by Grady Sizemore to put runners on first and second with no one out in the bottom of the ninth.  A bunt moved the runners to second and third, where Ben Francisco and Victor Martinez stranded them on harmless, infield pop ups.  The former came on the first pitch.  So much for the patience the team is always preaching. 

Of course, the relief corps didn’t help either.  After Jhonny Peralta’s two-run homer in the sixth gave Cleveland a 5-3 lead, the bullpen couldn’t hold it, and Rafael Betancourt was the culprit.  An error by seldom used Andy Marte and a single set up the inning for the Sox, and a sacrifice moved the tying runs into scoring position.  Unlike the Tribe in the ninth, the Pale Hose knocked in the runs with back-to-back doubles off of Betancourt, and gave Chicago a lead they would never relinquish.

Betancourt has been hot and cold this season after a tremendous season in 2007.  His inconsistency is the biggest problem in the bullpen and here’s hoping Eric Wedge’s stubbornness doesn’t get in the way.  After a third of the season, it is obvious that Masa Kobayashi has been more effective and consistent than Betancourt, and their roles should be flip-flopped.  Yes, Kobayashi gave up a homer to Adam Dunn to cost the team a win against Cincinnati, but overall he has done the better job.

Peralta’s dinger was his 11^th of the season, and raised his RBI total to 19 on the season.  The shortstop is threatening to rival Brook Jacoby’s epic 1987 season of 32 homers and 69 RBI’s.  It is very unusual to hit that many home runs and drive in less than 80 runs.  At his current pace, Peralta will hit 33 HR’s with 60 RBI’s.  He is developing into an all or nothing offensive player, on par with guys like Russell Branyan.  The Tribe needs more from Peralta.

Baseball Prospectus.com noted today that the Indians’ starting rotation is on pace to be one of the top five American League rotations in the last 50 years, joining the ’61 Orioles, ’63 and ’64 White Sox, and the 1980 Oakland A’s.  The bad news here is that none of these teams made the post-season.  The point is this ballclub is wasting some historic starting pitching by bullpen and offensive failures.  GM Mark Shapiro and Wedge need to stop hoping it will turn around and do something to make it change direction.

KM

The Cleveland Indians under the Mark Shapiro regime are very good at evaluating pitchers, both amateur talent in the high school and college ranks and other teams’ minor leaguers.  This differs greatly from the John Hart era, where the Tribe was loaded with hitting prospects.  Which way is better?  That is up for debate, however, if you have one without the other is spells a struggling ballclub, not a consistent winner. 

For the most part, the Tribe’s sterling pitching staff is made up of a mixture of talent developed by the Cleveland farm system.  C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis were signed originally by the team and are mainstays in the organization.  Guys like Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, Rafael Betancourt, and Tom Mastny were acquired while they were in the minor leagues in another organization and developed by the Indians.  Only Paul Byrd and Joe Borowski were established major leaguers, and Masa Kobayashi was signed out of Japan.

The Indians have unparalleled depth in pitching in the organization, but it does them no good if they cannot convert it into some offensive firepower.  Even the Minnesota Twins traded a guy like Matt Garza to get an every day player in Delmon Young.  At this point, Shapiro needs to explore the possibility of exchanging some of this pitching depth to get a bat.  If you look at the hitting acquired during Shapiro’s tenure, you have to be discouraged.

We all know that Grady Sizemore was picked up in the famous Bartolo Colon trade.  Ryan Garko and Ben Francisco were drafted out of college, while Jhonny Peralta and Victor Martinez were signed as free agents and grew up in the organization.  Travis Hafner was acquired from Texas for Einar Diaz, and Franklin Gutierrez came in the Milton Bradley deal.  You can see that under the current front office, the Indians have yet to draft a real impact hitter.  Michael Aubrey was a first round pick, but injury problems cost him.  Trevor Crowe might be a decent major league player some day, but he is more of a lead off hitter type.  Last year’s top choice, Beau Mills, might have the best chance of being an impact bat. 

A player like Akron 3B Wes Hodges might turn into a solid major leaguer some day, and Josh Rodriguez could be a player who provides a good on base percentage with some pop.  At AAA, Shin-Soo Choo showed he could be a starter at the MLB level, but he is hardly a perennial all-star to be.  There simply isn’t a big bat in the organization, nor have the Indians ever really drafted or signed one outside of Martinez.  The best hope might be Kinston OF Nick Weglarz who combines power and a keen batting eye, but he’s in at least a year away.

The organizational philosophy of stockpiling pitchers is a sound one, but some of that depth has to be moved to get some hitting.  With the pitching currently on the major league roster, the time to make a move is right now.  This is not to say the Tribe should do what Detroit did and gut their farm system, but there is enough pitching to deal one or two hurlers and still maintain depth.  Shapiro has done a great job as GM, but he seems reluctant to make moves like this since the Brandon Phillips fiasco.  The time for a move is now, here’s hoping the Tribe has the guts to make one.

KM