Holmgren & Heckert Go To Work
Tribe Needs Change in Philosophy
In the 1990’s, the Cleveland Indians may have been the model franchise in major league baseball. They had a brand new ballpark and a progressive general manager in John Hart. It was Hart that started the practice of signing young players to multi-year contracts to control costs.
They produced tons of great young players, guys such as Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Brian Giles, Sean Casey, etc. They also traded for several minor leaguers who turned out to be stars, like Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Carlos Baerga.
They took some gambles because they were an aggressive, progressive organization.
Things couldn’t be any more different today.
Although the current administration under GM Mark Shapiro has done a good job judging talent from other organizations (Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana), in other areas they have become a very conservative group, with an eye always on the balance sheet.
They put an emphasis on college players in the amateur draft, one, because they are easier to sign because they don’t have the option of going to college, and two, because they enter the Tribe system at a later age, they are at the peak of their career before they are eligible for free agency.
For example, if they sign at age 22, and play three years in the minors, the player arrives in the big leagues at 25, two years before the 27-29 years of age that has proven to be the prime years for a player. Since you have to spend six years in the majors before becoming a free agent, the player is locked with the Indians until he’s 31 years old.
Unfortunately, the best players should be getting to the big club at around 22-23 years of age. Look at Grady Sizemore for example. Sizemore was a regular at age 22, and was a star at age 23. He won’t turn 28 until this August, meaning he’s in his prime right now.
How many people realize that Sizemore is actually a month younger than his outfield cohort, Shin-Soo Choo? Choo is coming off his first very good season in the major leagues, while Sizemore has been a regular for five seasons, and has made three all-star appearances.
This is also an organization very conservative when it comes to young players. Carlos Santana is one of baseball’s best prospects and plays a position where the Indians have no clear-cut starter. Lou Marson is the favorite to open the season behind the plate with veteran Mike Redmond backing him up. However, Marson is actually two months younger than Santana.
Why is the Tribe retarding the development of Santana, especially since they are not really a contending ballclub?
The switch-hitting Santana, acquired in the Casey Blake trade with the Dodgers, should be considered a good candidate to make the 2010 Tribe out of spring training. Why isn’t the current regime willing to take a chance on someone who showed he is a plus offensive player at Class AA Akron last season?
The same head scratching occurs with the signing of free agent Russell Branyan. Branyan is a mediocre player at best, and although many are worried he is blocking Michael Brantley, he is really hurting the chances of Jordan Brown, who has won two minor league batting titles in the past three years.
Brown, 26, is a .308 lifetime hitter in the minor leagues. He’s had an OPS of over 800 three of the last four years, including a career high 913 at Columbus last season. He’s not a big power guy, but did have a slugging percentage of .532 last season. And in a rarity on the Tribe, he doesn’t strike out a lot.
Basically, he can flat out hit.
Some would pooh-pooh his statistics because they were done in the minors, but minor league performance is an indicator of how a player will do in the majors. Once again, for an organization looking to the future, why not give Brown a chance to show what he can do?
This is why it will be interesting to see what happens in spring training if a top prospect performs very well. Already, indications are the Tribe will take the safe path, and send the player down for more “seasoning”. As a benefit, the Indians also delay the players’ arbitration clock, which is beneficial…you guessed it, financially.
Small market teams need to take some risks, both in terms of money and in terms of player development. The most risky thing this franchise does is trading the few starts they have for more prospects, thus forfeiting the chance to win.
It’s time to change that philosophy. Give the young players a chance. Draft high ceiling players. If the Indians want to return to the franchise they had in the 90’s, they can’t continue down the path they are on.
MW
Cavs Using Needed Depth
The news was released yesterday that Shaquille O’Neal would likely miss the balance of the regular season with a thumb injury that requires surgery. The operation will occur today. What this means for the Cavaliers is once again they will have to use the depth they’ve accumulated over the past year.
Anderson Varajao will log a majority of minutes at center, at least until Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ likely return to the roster on March 22nd. With “Wild Thing” playing the pivot, it means more time at power forward has opened up for newly acquired Antawn Jamison, and also the reduced time for J.J. Hickson will be put on the back burner.
It also makes the pick up of recently activated Leon Powe more important because he will get time up front as well.
O’Neal provided a huge low post presence on offense, but the guy who Mike Brown will replace him with will be just as dangerous near the basket. Because the player who will become the new go to guy in the low post will be LeBron James.
Just as James took over point guard duties because of injuries to Mo Williams and Delonte West, he will replace O’Neal in the post. This is just another reason why James will be named the MVP of the NBA for the second consecutive season.
It’s reminiscent of the Lakers’ Magic Johnson playing center in the NBA Finals against Philadelphia when Kareem Adbul-Jabbar went down with a leg injury. It’s also another reason why James is more like Johnson as a player than Michael Jordan.
The difference here is it’s not just a one game thing for LBJ.
Offensively, the wine and gold will try to run more and use their athleticism to create easy baskets. But, if and when they need a hoop late in the fourth quarter, they will go inside and James will be the primary option. Jamison will get looks there as well because he is very creative near the basket, but LBJ is the first look.
Defensively is where the Cavs will miss Shaq most of all, especially with Ilgauskas still on the sidelines. Cleveland is one of the league’s best teams in terms of least points allowed in the paint, much of it due to O’Neal. You can still see Dwyane Wade driving to the rim against the Cavs and seeing him bounce off Shaq. That’s the defensive presence of O’Neal.
Between the size of Shaq and the length of Ilgauskas, it was a deterrent to opponents trying to attack the basket. That’s gone for the time being.
It would not be surprising to see Darnell Jackson get some minutes to provide some of the bulk missing from the Cavs’ lineup. However, no one comes close to providing the enormousness of Shaquille O’Neal.
This is another case of the depth of the Cavaliers paying dividends. Jamario Moon missed some time in January. Mo Williams and Delonte West missed a great deal of time, yet Daniel Gibson was ready to fill in. Actually, Shaq also missed some time with a shoulder problem early in the season, but Ilgauskas was there to fill in. That’s why the team was put together in this manner.
Before any panic sets in, remember that the reason GM Danny Ferry picked up O’Neal was to combat Dwight Howard with Orlando, and the size of the Los Angeles Lakers. It’s worked because the wine and gold is 4-1 against those two teams.
However, with a six game bulge in the conference standings, the one remaining game against the Magic isn’t going to make a difference in the regular season. If the big man returns and can play in the playoffs, particularly against those two teams (assuming the Cavs get that far), then there is no need to worry. Actually, you will probably get a fresher Shaq at that point.
JK
Boston Beatdown
The Tribe Should Score Runs
The crack of the bat and the pop of ball hitting leather is filling the air in Goodyear, Arizona, and the exhibition games will start in about a week. The Cleveland Indians have a new manager and thus far the report from the southwest is that Manny Acta is a breath of fresh air.
Some players will benefit from a new man being in charge. My guess is that Andy Marte, Jordan Brown, and Matt LaPorta are all thrilled there was a change at the top.
Hopefully, new hitting coach Jon Nunnally will bring a change to the all or nothing offense, although he could be hindered in doing that with yesterday’s long awaited signing of whiff machine Russell Branyan.
First off, in a surprising move, Acta named Branyan as the starting first baseman. Apparently, that means Matt La Porta is in the mix in left field with Michael Brantley, Trevor Crowe, Austin Kearns, and Shelley Duncan.
La Porta has to be the frontrunner, and that really isn’t a huge problem because Brantley could use some extra time in the minor leagues. Brantley still needs to be able to drive the ball to keep defenses honest. Otherwise they will play shallow and take away the bloops he benefited from in his September call up.
Still, on a team that is said to be rebuilding, why bring in a 34 year old veteran like Branyan and take away much needed playing time from young guys like La Porta, Brantley, Marte, and Brown? They are the future of this team, and with Branyan’s option for 2011 being a reported $5 million, the only way the Indians pick that up is if the slugger hits 40 HR’s this season.
What will the Tribe lineup look like on Opening Day in US Cellular Field in Chicago on April 5th against the White Sox Mark Buehrle? Here’s a decent guess.
Sizemore CF
Cabrera SS
Choo RF
La Porta LF
Hafner DH
Peralta 3B
Branyan/Marte 1B
Valbuena/platoon 2B
Marson C
Grady Sizemore will return to the leadoff spot, and now that he is over his nagging injuries of a year ago, he should go back to the Sizemore that was thought to be an MVP type of player if he was playing on a winning team. He will not turn 28 until August, meaning he should be in the prime of his career.
Cabrera may just be the second best SS in the American League behind Derek Jeter. Think about it. He’s just 24 years old and last season had an OPS of 799. Plus, he’s a better than average gloveman. He had 42 doubles last season, and it would not be surprising to see some of those hits turn into home runs this season.
Choo had a breakout season a year ago, and in his last 250 games has hit 34 HR’s, knocked in 152 runs, and batted .303 in a span of 900 at bats. He’s another Indians in his prime as he will turn 28 in July. His lifetime OPS is 877.
Acta will likely put a right-handed bat between Choo and Hafner, and the choice here is La Porta, despite his inexperience. It’s more of a vote against putting Peralta in the clean up spot. La Porta is now 25 years old and showed enough last season to at least get a shot in this spot in the lineup.
Hafner, 33, didn’t have a horrible year last season, he had an OPS of 826, but his power numbers were down. He played just 94 games last season and the Tribe needs him available for 140-150 games this season. He’ll probably never again be the beast that slugged over or close to .600 from 2004-2006, but he still can be an effective middle of the order threat.
Peralta will be 28 this season, and it looks like he will never reach the promise he showed in 2005, when at 23 he hit .292 with 24 home runs. He had a below average offensive season in two of the last four years, although he did have a good 2008 with a .276 batting average and 23 dingers. The front office hopes he has some sort of bounce back season so his trade value will increase.
Branyan and Marte will likely platoon at first unless someone forces their way into the mix in LF by hammering southpaws. In that case, La Porta will play first with the other; probably Kearns or Duncan plays left.
The Indians are looking for someone to platoon with Valbuena because they believe after just 39 at bats, that the second year man can’t hit lefties. However, he’s only 24 years old, and showed a lot of pop in his bat. He could be a sleeper if given the chance.
Marson will get the nod as the starting catcher with Mike Redmond backing him up. If rookie Carlos Santana has a great spring training, there will be pressure on management to let him open with the big club. His hitting potential is that good.
As you can see, there is the potential to score a lot of runs. Several key players are in their prime (Sizemore and Choo) or are young with the pedigree to be good offensive performers (Cabrera, La Porta, and Valbuena).
It makes you wonder why they didn’t improve the starting pitching…
KM
In Search of Moon
Cavs Get What They Really Wanted
Danny Ferry got his man.
With all the talk surrounding Amare Stoudemire coming to the Cavaliers, some questioned whether or not he was a good fit for the wine and gold. Ultimately, the front office and coaching staff must have had the same concerns, so they decided to get Antawn Jamison from the Washington Wizards instead.
The cost was Zydrunas Ilgauskas and the 2010 first round draft pick, which will likely be in the bottom two of the first round because of the Cavs great record. If the rumors are true about Z being bought out and rejoining the team in 30 days, this is an outstanding trade.
If Ilgauskas does not come back this season, it’s a good trade, but it will leave Cleveland one big man short in combating teams like the Celtics, Magic, and Lakers.
The other big factor for the Cavs is they did not give up J.J. Hickson, who the Suns coveted in a possible Stoudemire deal, but who Ferry didn’t want to give up.
There are several reasons the team really preferred Jamison to Stoudemire.
First, Jamison is a better fit on offense because he has the ability to be effective both on the perimeter and near the basket. Also, Jamison is a solid rebounder, averaging almost nine per night. That’s about the same total as Stoudemire, despite the latter being perceived as physically superior.
Jamison is also signed for two more years, meaning there is no fear of him playing through the season and walking at the end of the year. The veteran will be here for the next two seasons. He’s also hungry. He wants to win a championship, where Stoudemire might be more interested in getting a maximum contract.
The newest Cav can also play small forward with LeBron James moving to the backcourt if Mike Brown wants to go with his big lineup. The coach hinted he might do that in certain circumstances at today’s press conference.
The Cavs also picked up Sebastian Telfair in the deal, although it seems remote that he will help the club much. He does give the team another ball handler, of which they were short when Mo Williams and Delonte West were injured. Telfair is coming off an injury, so it’s not known when he will be ready to play.
The downside of the deal is losing Ilgauskas, robbing the team of its depth in the frontcourt, particularly at the center position. Unless he is bought out by Washington and returns to the team in 30 days, the wine and gold could have a problem.
The critics of the Cavs felt the team needed a reliable second scorer to go along with LeBron James. Antawn Jamison is that man. GM Danny Ferry got him without having to give up a promising young player. That’s a good deal.
It becomes highway robbery if Zydrunas Ilgauskas is back wearing the wine and gold in a month as many have speculated.
JK
Really? They Want to Bring Back Branyan?
Sometimes, life imitates art. Last week, flipping through the television on a Sunday, I came across the movie “Major League”, which is held near and dear by fans of the Cleveland Indians. The sad thing about seeing the movie again was the thought that we are seeing a sequel in real life this off-season.
The Tribe, notably the Dolan family with GM Mark Shapiro manning the controls, continues to make moves that baffle its fan base. The latest is the offer of a major league contract to free agent slugger/whiff machine Russell Branyan.
First, offering a big league deal to Russell the Muscle means that someone has to be removed from the 40-man roster if Branyan accepts the deal. It may be an inconsequential player in the long term, but it will be someone with more upside than the 34-year-old slugger.
Second, the Tribe is talking about Branyan providing depth at 1B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH. That’s highly unlikely.
The reason Branyan is still on the market is he has a bad back. That would make playing the hot corner very unlikely. He hasn’t played there since 2008 with Milwaukee, but even when he was young, he wasn’t known as a good glove man.
He hasn’t patrolled the outfield since 2007 with Philadelphia.
Most likely, Branyan would play 1B and DH when Travis Hafner takes a day off. However, the Indians claim Hafner’s shoulder is stronger and the plan of playing him a maximum of three days in a row is out the window. So how many at bats would the well traveled slugger get?
Yes, Branyan had a career year in 2009, hitting .251 with 31 HR and 78 RBI. The ribbie number isn’t impressive because of the strikeouts. However, after a great start, he batted .184 with a 701 OPS in July and August. He was having back problems at that point, but he is also prone to these types of slumps.
His previous career high in dingers was 24, done during the 2002 season. So what do you think the likelihood of him hitting 25-30 in 2010 is?
Look, because of the length of his career, you pretty much know what you a going to get out of Branyan. He’s going to hit around .230, smash 20 homers and knock in about 50 runs. Oh yeah, he’s also going to whiff. A lot.
Not exactly a great fit for a team that finished in the top five in striking out in the American League last season.
And this isn’t about Mark Shapiro doing Branyan a favor and giving him a place to show he is healthy. They are offering him a big league contract, not a minor league invite.
This whole off-season for the Indians has got to be a bad dream, right? Signing a collection of marginal players doesn’t really get the fans thinking about baseball.
It almost seems as if the management is trying to drive fans away. The best hope is Branyan turns down the Indians’ offer and goes somewhere else.
They have to be kidding us, right?
MW
Does Stoudemire Fit?
The trade rumors started over the weekend while the NBA celebrated its All-Star weekend in Dallas. The trade deadline takes place this Thursday, and the Cavaliers are certainly in the mix.
The latest scuttlebutt has Cleveland talking to Phoenix about C/F Amare Stoudemire, who started for the West in the all-star clash. In return, the Cavs would give the Suns F J.J. Hickson and C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who by all accounts would be released by Phoenix, and would re-sign with the wine and gold in 30 days.
The question is does this deal make the Cavaliers significantly better? That’s up for debate.
Stoudemire does not come here with the thirst for a title that an Antawn Jamison would show up with. Stoudemire is a free agent at the end of this season, and he wants to be paid. That alone may ruin the chemistry the Cavs have built up.
Understand that the pressure would be on LeBron James to make this work. However, the big man from Phoenix is not the “stretch” forward most critics of the wine and gold have said they needed.
He’s also not a plus defender, and that’s the hallmark of this organization. He’s weak against the pick and roll, something that still plagues the Cavs defensively, especially when Shaquille O’Neal is on the floor.
It’s also likely that the new man wouldn’t be on the floor at the end of games. Mike Brown likes Anderson Varajao on the court for his defensive prowess in the fourth quarter, and it is doubtful that will change. Varajao is an excellent defender, and once again, that’s what the Cavaliers hang their hat on at the end of the day.
On the other hand, Stoudemire and James would become a devastating pick and roll combination offensively. Also, the former would provide the team with another low post threat when they have the ball.
But it’s likely that he would be the third or fourth option on offense with Cleveland behind James, Shaq, and perhaps even Mo Williams, when he returns from his shoulder injury. Could Stoudemire handle being that low in the pecking order?
Stoudemire has also had injury problems, missing a season because of a microfracture in his knee, and he also missed time with a detached retina after getting poked in the eye.
It just seems he isn’t as good a fit as possible on first glance.
There’s no question he doesn’t fit in as well as Jamison, who lends an outside shooting touch from the power forward spot, and isn’t playing for a new contract because he’s signed for next season.
That’s why Danny Ferry gets the big cash. He has to make the ultimate decision on this deal.
Amare Stoudemire has the biggest name involved in deals the Cavaliers are attached to. However, that doesn’t mean he’s the best fit.
JK