The Santana Dilemma

As the Cleveland Indians look toward the 2016 season, they know they are set in several positions.

Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley have put together seasons, this year and last year respectively, that would merit MVP consideration.  Kipnis won’t finish as high the third place position Brantley had in 2014 because the Indians’ record doesn’t figure to be as good.

And the starting pitching has at least four spots in cement, barring a deal for a legitimate bat, with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Danny Salazar anchoring the rotation.

You also have to figure that Francisco Lindor’s showing in his first big league experience gives him a leg up on the SS position, and Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez give the Tribe a solid catching duo.

That leaves RF, CF, 3B (has Giovanny Urshela done enough?), and DH as wide open spots heading into the off-season.

Notice that we haven’t talked about first base.

The incumbent, Carlos Santana elicits much debate among Cleveland baseball fans regarding his worth as a key component to the Indians.

On paper, Santana is a pretty good offensive player having a poor season, although the stat based people will tell you he is just fine.  Even with his .223 batting average in 2015, he still is above league average according to OPS.

Still, since belting 27 home runs and knocking in 79 runs in 2011 at age 25, Santana really hasn’t blossomed into the hitter that season seemed to indicate he would be.

He had hit more than 25 homers just once in that span (last year with 27), and knocked in over 80 runs just once, also 2014 with 85.  That’s not quite the production you would expect from someone at a premier power position.

The switch-hitter had more value when he spent most of his season behind the plate.  The kind of offense he provided as a catcher was well above average for the position.  As a 1B/DH, his numbers are just so-so.  And his biggest value on offense is his ability to take a walk. He struggles with men on base, mostly because he appears to be too anxious to hit a long ball.

That’s weird because of his normal patient approach.

The lack of run production stands out in the AL Central where Miguel Cabrera, Eric Hosmer, and Jose Abreu play the same spot.  Here are their OPS–

Cabrera    1.034
Abreu         .861
Hosmer      .851

The production the Indians receive from their first baseman pales by comparison.

Cleveland owes Santana $8 million for 2016, and the question is can they afford to pay that much cash for below average (for his position) production.

The guess here is that Santana’s days in an Indian uniform are numbered.

For one, we are hearing the switch-hitter being criticized on the air by both radio and television announcers, which can mean that the front office personnel are feeding the media their dissatisfaction.

Secondly, Santana’s defense isn’t strong either.  While work with the glove isn’t a high priority for a first sacker, the Tribe seems to be putting a new-found priority on defense, and may be looking for someone who can improve that spot.

The reality is that Carlos Santana is a solid offensive player, but he’s not a middle of the order bat, which is what the Indians need him to be.  If their lineup was strong enough to bat them sixth or seventh, that would be fine, but right now, it is not possible.

So this winter, when GM Chris Antonetti looks for a big bat to help the ’16 batting order, he will be looking for one that can play first, while he dangles Santana to get help somewhere else.

KM

The White Flag Flies Atop Progressive Field

The Cleveland Indians have now completed 2/3s of their season, and the last 27 games (1/6 of the season) were a disaster to put the team in the mode of looking toward next season.

1st 27 games:  10-17
Game 28-54:  16-11
Game 55-81:  12-15
Game 82-108:  11-16

As you can see only in that second set of 27 contests did the Indians play good baseball, and in those other 81 games, or half the season, their record is 33-48.

That’s a pace to lose 90 games, which is where the Tribe could be headed at the end of the season. That would be the fifth such season under the Dolan/Shapiro/Antonetti triumvirate, which is one more season than they have been over the .500 mark.

Yesterday’s trade in which GM Chris Antonetti unburdened the franchise of two bad contracts in Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher for Atlanta’s bad deal in 1B/3B Chris Johnson, only emphasized what a disaster this season has been.

Johnson has a .280 lifetime average, but has slumped horribly from his 2013 campaign where he hit .321 with the Braves. He’s a high strikeout, low walk hitter, but has been pretty successful vs. lefties in his career (.313 average, 788 OPS).

And yes, we know, the Tribe pitched in $10 million in the deal to make it happen, so to be sure, we will hear how the ownership is willing to spend money. However, we would prefer that the spend cash to get good players, not to make bad ones go away.

The pitching staff now ranks in the top half of the American League, which was expected at the beginning of the season, but the offense has been putrid, as the Indians rank 12th in the AL in scoring, 12th in home runs, and 10th in batting average. They are 9th in OPS as a team.

Before the July 31st trading deadline, Antonetti started to clean house, moving a slumping David Murphy to the Angels, and a disappointing Brandon Moss, who hit a few homers but little else, to the Cardinals. The Moss deal actually netted Cleveland a pretty good prospect in southpaw Rob Kaminsky.

So, the Tribe is now is spring training mode, trying to see if Lonnie Chisenhall can play right field, and giving auditions to guys like Jerry Sands, to see if he can be their version of Detroit’s J.D. Martinez.

It would not be a shock to see Ryan Raburn moved before the end of the season to a contender to open up another spot on the 25 man roster to look at yet another young player. That’s really all the Indians have left at this point.

They can see if Johnson can take over Raburn’s role in ’16, since Cleveland has to pay him $9 million.

They can see if Jose Ramirez can rebound from a bad start to the year, and become a viable utility player, or re-establish his trade value.  Remember he is still just 22 years old.

They can look at potential centerfielders, hopefully this means Tyler Naquin when he comes off the disabled list in Columbus. Tyler Holt got a whopping 20 at bats, so we wonder who will be in center tonight. Hopefully, it’s not Michael Brantley, whose defense is no longer adequate for the spot. It will probably be Abraham Almonte, just acquired from San Diego.

The Tribe owes it to the pitching staff to put a good defender out in the middle of the outfield. So, a promising season has come down to playing out the string and finding out if any of the young players will be able to be contributors in 2016.

This sad baseball season has only one-third of it left. At least for the Cleveland Indians. MW

How The Cleveland Media Covers Our Teams

We refuse to be political here, but everyone knows when it comes to news, the liberals watch MSNBC for their slant, while the conservatives favor Fox News.

That got us to thinking…what kind of bias do the people who cover Cleveland sports have?  We will look at it team by team, in our humble opinion, of course.

Cavaliers. Right now, Dan Gilbert’s franchise is the favored child by the writers and broadcasters, because they present the best hope for a title on the North Coast, which would be a great story.

However, make no mistake, there is bias.  Whenever there is any problem with the team, there is no question that David Blatt is probably the root of the issue, at least according to those who cover the team.

Blatt is a man full of confidence, which doesn’t sit well with the media.  So, they will constantly pick on his problem with being called a rookie NBA coach, and because he can be condescending to them at times, they love to point out any errors he may make.

There is also a slant toward LeBron James, who is the best basketball player in the world, but he is a human too, and is not infallible.  There are those who question James on how he relates to Blatt, but for the most part, James is right, and Blatt has no clue.

Browns.  The most popular word to use to describe Cleveland’s professional football team is “dysfunction”. The GM and coach aren’t on the same page.  The owner meddles.  What will be the story if the Browns improve once again in 2015.

GM Ray Farmer is another guy who exudes confidence and that turns off some reporters as well.  So, they like to point at his draft record, which isn’t sterling when it comes to first round choices.

However, it is kind of comical when 8th overall pick CB Justin Gilbert is passed over for first team reps in practice by last year’s 4th round selection Pierre Desir, Farmer takes a hit because Gilbert doesn’t get the nod.

Who do they think found Desir? Santa’s elves?

Mike Pettine is a serious man, and seems like he will be a solid NFL coach, but he is down to earth with the media, and in turn, you never hear a peep about him being at fault if the team goes 3-13.

And the scribes turned against owner Jimmy Haslam this week when he made some comments about reporters being accountable for their stories.

Guess some people should play along so the media will like them.

Indians.  For a franchise that has produced just four winning seasons in 15 years, and just two playoff appearances, you don’t hear a lot of criticism being thrown toward the Dolan family, and the front office.

Our opinion is the guys at the top at Progressive Field are genuinely nice people, so they seem to get a free pass.

No one questions them about their horrible record at drafting in the 00’s, or why they seems to do nothing to put a team over the top when in contention.

The Indians are very media savvy, and seem to feed reporters with facts that make the organization look favorable, and they are reported without question.

But it is very quiet this summer despite being picked to win the AL Central Division for the first time since 2007.

We guess it pays to be nice.

Again, these are our perceptions about how the teams are portrayed locally.  It would be nice if the personalities involved didn’t seem to have as much to do with how the coverage is slanted.

MW

Sometimes “Conflict in Front Office” Is Good.

The other day, we wrote about how the Cleveland Browns get no credit for trying something different, when the Cleveland Indians are a stand pat organization, and they get criticized for not making any changes.

There is another way the two organizations are different as well, and it has to do with the relationship between the front office and the head coach/manager.

On the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, it’s a Kumbaya fest.  Everyone seems to be on the same page and have the same opinion.  In fact, it is difficult to tell who is doing the talking sometimes, be it president Mark Shapiro, GM Chris Antonetti, or Terry Francona.

They always seem to be in lock step, at least publicly.

On the other hand, the media loves to report about the discord between Browns’ GM Ray Farmer and head coach Mike Pettine.  It is further proof of the team’s “dysfunction”.

The reality is behind the scenes, there should be some disagreement between the coach and the person who picks the talent, because they should be coming at it from two different perspectives.

The coach or manager is trying to win, and win right now.  That’s the way he gets to keep his job, and also, he is ultimately the person who the wins and losses are assigned to.

When the Browns have a 4-12 record, no one is saying that Ray Farmer’s squad has that record.  It goes on Pettine’s record.

The general manager has to look at not only this year’s team, but also the future of the franchise, and if football’s case, salary cap implications.

Many coaches fall into the trap of favoring veterans with little upside because they are dependable, instead of going with a young player, who may have a bigger upside.

Think about the Indians in this situation.  Terry Francona likes to have his bench filled with veterans like Ryan Raburn, Mike Aviles, etc., instead of keeping younger players like Tyler Holt or Jesus Aguilar.

In baseball, the GM has to weigh the positives of major league experience against not playing.  For young players, they need to play.  No one gets better by watching extensively.  If that occurred, there would be a lot of fans who would be suddenly able to play professional sports.

When a team is in a situation like the Cavaliers are, it is easy for the coach and GM to be on the same page, because there, the goal is clearly stated.  The Cavs are trying to win a title now, and everybody is “All In”.

However, in other situations, there is a different point of view for both the front office and the coaching staff, and that is healthy.  It’s why you also don’t want to have a coach/GM in charge.

We remember Butch Davis proudly saying that all of his draft picks made the team.  Of course, they did, because he was in charge of keeping them or letting them go.

Now, you don’t want the two people is total disagreement to the point where they cannot work together either.  But, they should not be in lock step with each other.

To be sure, there have to be players that Farmer likes, that Pettine doesn’t, and vice-versa.  It’s healthy and necessary in a winning organization.

The Indians seem to have a “group think” approach, and that’s not working well for them.

So, don’t be concerned that Ray Farmer and Mike Pettine don’t see eye to eye on everything.  They have two different points of view.

JD

Browns Get Criticized For Doing What We Wish Tribe Would Do

Yesterday, Browns’ owner Jimmy Haslam took some members of the media to task for some of the reports regarding the “dysfunction” of the team.

We believe that the sports journalists, both print and broadcast, criticize GM Ray Farmer because the Browns aren’t being built the conventional way.

That way would be to find a “franchise” quarterback and then construct the rest of the team around said QB.  Because the Browns do not have that guy, and they weren’t willing to overdraft in last April’s draft, it means Cleveland once again doesn’t have a clue, at least in terms of the Cleveland sports media.

By the way, doesn’t it say something that Farmer didn’t repeat the mistake, if he indeed made one, of picking another quarterback in the first round after the struggles of Johnny Manziel in his rookie season?

Farmer has said this publicly and apparently the people reporting on the Browns do not listen.  He said the reality of the situation is that very few NFL teams has an elite passer, so those teams have to figure out another way to win.

The Browns’ front office recognizes this, and one of the things you always hear about the Indians situation when they complain about their small market status, is that other teams in the same situation figure out how to win, so why can’t the Tribe?

Haslam, Farmer, and head coach Mike Pettine have decided to try a different way to win, and that is building through a strong defense and a solid running game.  It may not be the sexy way to compile victories, but they know that Josh McCown and/or Manziel aren’t top-notch quarterbacks, but they don’t use it as an excuse for not winning.

Pettine says it all the time, it’s a pass/fail league.  And they don’t use not having an Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger as a reason to just punt the season.

Instead, they have decided to build the rest of their football team, and make each game about playing in the teens or low twenties, and putting up just enough points to claim a win.

And early last season, it worked.  They dominated the Steelers at home, and the Bengals in Cincinnati.  They lost to Pittsburgh on the road and the Ravens at home on last second field goals.

Yes, yes, we know those were losses, but losing on the last play is a bit different that leading going into the fourth quarter and getting hammered then.

Part of the problem the media has with Farmer is his attitude toward them.  He’s not warm and fuzzy, and comes off at times like he’s smarter than the people who cover the team, which he is.  If he wasn’t, their situations would be reversed.

The Indians front office acts like that all the time, yet no one challenges them, and if fact, because they are nice people, they seem to escape the criticism for their poor results.

If Farmer and Pettine turn this thing around, guess what.  They will be even more detached from the media because they will have been correct.

Haslam set himself up yesterday by saying he like the direction of the team and there aren’t plans to make changes if the Browns have a bad season last year.  However, at this point, he should be taken at his word, even though his track record says otherwise.

The reality is no matter what kind of schedule the Browns played a year ago, they did get better by three wins.  The five straight losses is what makes everyone so down on the team.

Just think what the perception of the team would be is the season had been reversed, and the Browns lost their first five, and then rallied to a 7-9 season.

We both know that Farmer and Pettine would be hailed for putting the team in the right direction.

This is a key season because the slate is tougher in 2015. But give the Browns credit for not saying woe is us, we don’t have Tom Brady, so we are just going to finish 3-13.  They have a plan, it’s just now one the media agrees with.

JD

Tribe Makes Some Moves, We Wished For More

The Cleveland Indians made a series of trades before the July 31st trade deadline, moving two left-handed bats in David Murphy and Brandon Moss, and they also moved lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski.

We have no problems with any of the moves, as the deals with open up the roster for some younger talent.

Our regret is they didn’t do more.

The first trade, which sent Murphy to the Angels, is simply a case of the outfielder having a club option at the end of this year, which the Indians weren’t willing to pick up.  So, they moved him for a minor league SS in Eric Stamets.

Stamets is purported to be a good athlete, and excellent defender who cannot hit, batting under .250 each of his last two seasons in the minor leagues.

But really, there isn’t a huge demand for corner outfielders who don’t have a lot of pop.  The only question is getting another shortstop with Jose Ramirez (who can play other spots) and Erik Gonzalez already trapped behind Francisco Lindor.

The Moss deal was a surprise, but the 1B/OF was an all or nothing hitter with Cleveland, and that Antonetti was able to get one of St. Louis’ top prospects made this transaction a no-brainer as well.

The southpaw Cleveland received in return, Rob Kaminsky, is 6-5 with a 2.09 ERA this year in high A, and we hope he goes to Akron.  In his three years in the minors since being the Cardinals first round pick in 2013, he has a 2.15 ERA.

He is said to have a deceptive delivery and hitters have a hard time picking up the ball.  He’s also a strike thrower with just 68 walks in 217 minor league innings.

The return for Rzepczynski was OF Abraham Almonte, who is a .233 hitter in over 300 big league at bats, of which he was struck out in about a third of them.  So, he’s more like a guy who will spend a lot of time in Columbus.

We would have liked to seen the Tribe move OF/DH Ryan Raburn too, and that might still happen before the August 31st waiver deal deadline.  Raburn got off to a hot start, but has been mediocre with the stick since the middle of May.

The front office also didn’t resolve their Michael Bourn problem, so the outfielder who had a mini-renaissance this week (his OPS is up to 600 folks!), is still here and we assume that Terry Francona will continue to write his name in the lineup.

There were rumors that Cleveland was dangling Carlos Carrasco in the deal which would have brought back the impact bat, the team desperately needs, but nothing happened.

At the very least, these moves give the Indians an opportunity to look at some young players, like Tyler Holt and Jerry Sands, just recalled, and lefty Michael Roth, who came up earlier this week.

It also gives Lonnie Chisenhall one last chance to prove he can be a big league hitter.

The reshaping of the Indians’ roster has started.  It’s unfortunate that the weaknesses of this team, that were evident as early as the beginning of May, weren’t addressed sooner.

MW

Tribe Uses Stats to Deflect Criticism

We have been watching baseball for a long, long time, but we don’t dismiss some of the statistical analysis that is somewhat new to the game.

In fact, we were faithful readers of Bill James’ Baseball Abstracts when they first reached baseball fans’ consciousness and we agree with many of the things he first brought to light.  Some of these concepts was the importance of on base percentage, and that OPS is a very good judge of offensive talent.

However, the game isn’t played on paper, it takes place on the field, and so it galls us when we read how the Tribe PR department, front office, and the fans who don’t think they do anything wrong, tell us how “unlucky” the current Indians are.

For example, it’s not bad luck that four to five hitters in the Tribe lineup on a regular basis are hitting under .230.

The biggest debate from the stat people is 1B Carlos Santana, who is revered by the sabermetric crowd because of his ability to draw walks.  Despite his .224 batting average, he gets on base 35.4% of the time.

There is undoubtedly value in that.  Another thing we learned from James is that the game of baseball is played based on the number of outs.  Each team gets 27 of them.  So, Santana has value in that he makes outs just 64.6% of the time, compared to let’s say, Brandon Moss, a player with a similar batting average (.220), but he makes outs 70.8% of his at bats.

However, the Tribe needs Santana to provide pop in the middle of the lineup, which he’s been unable to do. His career slugging percentage is .435, not sufficient enough for a middle of the order hitter.

Therefore, Santana really shouldn’t be hitting in the #4 or #5 spot in the batting order.  Ideally, he would be more effective either hitting in front of someone who can drive him in, so he should be hitting #7 or #8 to get on base in front of Jason Kipnis, or in the two hole so Michael Brantley can get him home.

The organization is also guilty of using small sample sizes to deflect criticism.  They are quick to quote that a certain player has had success over something like a 10 game stretch.  Big deal.  Most decent major league players can stretches that long where they appear to be pretty good.

The reality is you have to look at the season as a whole.  Now, if you want to say a player got off to a slow start, and over the last 60 games, they are having success, we will listen to that argument.

The only statistic that matters is the winning percentage of the team.  And right now, the Cleveland Indians are failing in that regard.  No team gets to move up in the standings because the numbers show they aren’t as bad as they appear.  It’s akin to putting lipstick on a pig.

Here’s another statistic we like to use:  In the 14 years that Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti have been in charge, the Indians have four seasons over .500 and two playoff appearances.  Guess what?  Not good.

Are some of the hits by the opponents lucky?  Perhaps.  On the other hand, right now the starting pitchers are putting this team in a hole on a nightly basis.  Last night, they were down 3-0 after the first inning.

Saturday night, they were losing 5-0.

Thursday, it was 4-0 after four frames.

This team’s offense doesn’t allow them to come back, so it is incumbent on the starters to put some zeroes on the board early.  Is there any statistic that covers that up?

The entire organization needs to examine itself and look at different ways of getting it done.  It’s not working right now.

What Tribe Should Do In The Last Two Months

It is more apparent than ever that the Cleveland Indians need to do something about this roster as they head into the July 31st trading deadline at the end of the week.

The Tribe needed a good start to the second half, as they had nine games against the weaker squads in Major League Baseball (Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and the White Sox) and to this point are 3-5 against them.

Cleveland has demonstrated nothing to hang your hat on in the second half.  The offense has been deplorable, the starting pitching has collapsed, and while the defense is better than the horrific first two months of the year, it still makes key mistakes at the most inopportune times, and the pitching staff cannot pitch around them.

The front office is asleep at the switch, seemingly refusing to address any of the problems this team has, and make no mistake, they have been around since day one of the season.  And we have to take Terry Francona to task as well, as he hasn’t made any adjustments to what he has either.

This is a team with little home run power, yet he still sits back and plays for the three run bomb.

Look, the Indians’ hitters don’t strike out a lot, so why not send runners every once in a while.  And SS Francisco Lindor, who stole nine bases in AAA, has attempted just one with the Indians, and that was in his first big league start.

So, perhaps the front office can improve the current roster by trading some of the veterans on the roster.

The obvious duo is the platoon tandem at DH in David Murphy and Ryan Raburn.  Now, before you say these are two of the team’s better hitters, let’s look inside the numbers.

Over the last 28 days, Murphy has hit just .184 with a home run and seven RBI (569 OPS).  In the same time period, Raburn has batted just 22 times, hitting .182 with three runs batted in.

Of course, that hasn’t stopped Francona from continuing to hit them both in the clean up spot on a regular basis.

Moving those two players and removing Michael Bourn from the roster would give GM Chris Antonetti three roster spots to work with.

That would enable the organization to find out if Jesus Aguilar and/or Jerry Sands can contribute to the team going forward, and also give Tyler Holt and/or Tyler Naquin some big league experience.

Naquin would be the most intriguing because he is the best prospect of the group, but Sands knocked in six runs in his 24 at bats here, which is three less than Mike Aviles for the entire season.

We are tired of hearing the argument that Bourn has to stay because of the amount of money he is owed by Cleveland.  It’s a ridiculous argument.  No player, repeat, no player should get at bats because of what they are making.  YOU HAVE TO PAY HIM ANYWAY!  There is no need to have him decrease the team’s chances of winning.

Why aren’t we hammering Nick Swisher for the same reason?  One, he’s not on the roster right now.  Two, he’s only had 101 at bats this year.  If he is reactivated and he still is not doing anything, then he will draw the same ire as the centerfielder.

Of course, Antonetti said earlier this week that he is still confident in the team he opened the season with.  Either he is dumb or a liar, because if you watch the games, you couldn’t possibly come to that conclusion.

This team’s only chance, and it gets slimmer by the day, is to make these chance and hope the younger players come through.

And if they don’t, then at least the front office knows who can contribute in ’16 and who cannot.

KM

Despite Criticism, We Think Tribe Still Has a Chance

If you read this blog on a regular basis or follow us on Twitter, you might think we feel the Cleveland Indians should forget about this season and start working toward the 2016 campaign.

And you would be wrong.

Why?  Because a quick check of the standings shows the Indians are still just 5-1/2 games out of a playoff spot.  The truth is, that’s why we keep pushing for the Tribe front office to make some moves, because there is still very much hope, although not with the team as it is currently constituted.

We grew up in the era where a contending team didn’t come around all that often.  Okay, it didn’t come around at all.  That was baseball in this town from 1969 through really, 1993.  There weren’t too many reasons to get excited about the squads that toiled at old Municipal Stadium.

That’s why we can’t bring ourselves to look toward the 2016 season.  There is a legitimate chance here is the front office stops looking through rose-colored glasses and sees they need to take action for the rest of the season.

This past week, we read various things about how the Indians are unlucky.  They hit the ball hard often, but don’t get hits, Their opponents hit bloopers that fall in, etc.

First, to borrow from the sport that uses an oblong ball, as Bill Parcells says, you are what your record says you are.

And the Tribe is currently four games below the break even mark at 45-49.  And that’s a mediocre record.

What gives us hope is the starting pitching staff, which is capable of shutting down teams on a nightly basis.  You can say with conviction that Terry Francona’s team in capable of holding the opponents to two runs or less every night.  That doesn’t mean they will, but they have starters capable of doing it.

The problem is with the offense, and the baseball fairies aren’t going to come down and sprinkle magic dust on the Indians’ bats and they will finally start to hit.

To the “bad luck” folks, we say this:  Is it bad luck that on most nights, Francona writes out a lineup that includes four hitters batting .230 or less, and only three hitters with a mark of over .260.

We know, we know, stat people, batting average is overrated.  The league average for OPS is 718.  A typical Cleveland lineup with contain five batters with an OPS under the league average.  And since you are statistically driven, that would be more than half of the team they put on the field each day.

One of those hitters is OF/DH David Murphy, who the optimistic fan base thought was going to hit .325 all year.  Murphy has started to regress to his normal batting mark of around .270, so if the front office were to deal him sometime next week, we would not consider that folding up the tent.

The season is more than half over, so pretty much what you see is what you are going to get from these players.  Sure, Carlos Santana and/or Brandon Moss are capable of getting hot, and perhaps Yan Gomes too, but will all three get hot at the same time?

And really, your basing your success on players getting red-hot?

The Indians need to make some moves, even if it is just giving some more young players a chance, if they want to contend for the playoffs.

They are too close to just throw in the towel.  Moving on with an eye toward next year will just further alienate an already apathetic ticket buying public.

MW

Lack Of Pop Biggest Reason For Tribe Hitting Struggles

You may guess that the Cleveland Indians might be among the leaders in the American League in leaving runners on base, and you would be correct.

In fact, they lead the AL with 670 LOB to this point in the season.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because it shows they do indeed get base runners, they just lack the ability to get a hit to score them.

Second in that category is the Boston Red Sox, another team who is having problems putting runs on the board, but the next two teams in leaving runners on are Oakland, who ranks 7th in runs scored, and New York, 2nd in the AL in runs per game.

One statistic to look at in examining Cleveland’s problems is slugging percentage, which is the ability to get extra base hits.  The Indians rank 4th from the bottom in that category, ahead of only Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Chicago in the junior circuit.

Those three teams are also the same trio that are behind the Tribe in average runs per night.

Cleveland does hit plenty of doubles, they are second in the AL in that stat due to the presence of Jason Kipnis (tied for the AL lead) and Michael Brantley (4th in the AL), but the absence of the long ball is hurting the ability to put up runs.  The Indians are second to last in dingers ahead of only the White Sox.  Chicago’s inability to hit homers is really telling in that they play in a home run friendly park.

Thank goodness for the acquisition of Brandon Moss, who has hit 15 bombs this season, despite his struggles at the plate.  Otherwise, Terry Francona’s squad might rank last in home runs.

What this means is that on most nights, Cleveland needs three hits to score, which might be easier if their team batting average wasn’t .249, and on usually they have only three hitters with averages over .250 in the lineup:  Kipnis, Brantley, and David Murphy.

Moss is on pace for over 20 dingers in 2015, but he’s the only Tribe hitter who is on pace to reach that plateau.  Carlos Santana is the only Tribesman in double figures at the moment, and he has just 10.

Look at what happened Saturday night, when the Indians hit three homers.  They scored nine runs.  It makes it a lot easier when you can get three runs on one swing as they did on the long balls by Brantley and Yan Gomes.

And the way the lineup is constructed, you have Kipnis (.405 OBP) and Brantley (.371) hitting at the top of the order, and the batting averages of the players following them (excluding the Murphy/Raburn platoon) on most nights are usually this:  .222, .222, .220, .231, .229.  Yikes!

And Murphy is a guy to keep an eye on.  He’s a lifetime .275 batter, currently hitting .307.  Over the last month, he’s dropped to .255, which means he is regressing to his normal statistics.  That’s not going to help.

It is doubtful the Tribe can do anything about the power at this point.  Perhaps bring up Jerry Sands again or maybe Jesus Aguilar, who have the ability to hit some home runs.  Could GM Chris Antonetti find some better hitters for average on the market?  It’s probably more likely than getting someone who can hit 25 homers, so maybe that is possible.

Francisco Lindor is starting to hit a little better, but that only helps the top of the order, which isn’t really the problem right now.

It’s not as simple as the guys in the lineup getting better.  It’s flawed right now.  The guys with the low batting averages aren’t just having bad years, they don’t hit for high averages.

If the Indians want to generate more offense, they need to correct that problem.

KM