The Cleveland Indians’ offense continues to sputter after ranking 5th in the American League in runs scored last season.  In 2005, the Tribe ranks 10th in the league in scoring.  What was been the biggest reason for the drop off?  You can start by checking out how often the team strikes out.  Unfortunately, it ranks 2nd in the AL in that category.

 

Situational hitting is greatly helped by being able to put bat on ball.  Moving runners over, scoring with outs, getting runners in from third with less than two outs, all of these things require hitting the baseball.  This team has too many players in the lineup who whiff in critical situations.  That’s why they struggle with these opportunities. 

 

This is not to say that striking out is the worst thing in the world.  The Texas Rangers lead the AL in K’s, but they also rank 3rd in league in runs scored.  This is due to hitting 52 more home runs than the Indians total of 120.  So, the Tribe ranks 6th in round trippers, but 2nd in striking out.  Not a good combination.

 

In Saturday’s loss to Seattle, the Indians had a chance to tie the game late with the bases loaded and one out in the 8th inning, trailing 3-2.  But, Jason Dubois and Grady Sizemore both fanned, and the tying run was left at third.  This happens far more often than not.

 

To make things worse, Cleveland’s hitters do not walk much either making the team rank 10th in the AL in on base percentage.  In fact, only three Tribe hitters have OBP’s above .350:  Travis Hafner (.416), Jhonny Peralta (.355), and the recently traded Jody Gerut (.357).  Here is another stat which shows the lack of plate discipline on the team.  The only Indians who have NOT struck out twice as much as they have walked are Hafner, Victor Martinez, reserve catcher Josh Bard, and barely Coco Crisp (55K’s, 28 walks).

 

Among the horrific K/BB ratios are:  Grady Sizemore (86/32), Aaron Boone (62/19), Jose Hernandez (42/8), Peralta (70/27), and Casey Blake (73/30).  It is much to late in the season to expect these guys to start making contact to advance runners. 

 

Tribe Manager Eric Wedge is asking the impossible.  It is like he expects my Chrysler Sebring to win the next NASCAR race.  It simply isn’t going to happen. 

 

One of the newest Indians fits right into the whiff machine, outfielder Jason Dubois.  The righthanded "hitter" has fanned 17 times in 31 official at-bats.  If Wedge thought he was going to tie the game on Saturday, he’s not as smart as I thought he was. 

 

That’s why GM Mark Shapiro has to make contact more of a priority for Cleveland both the rest of this season and next year.  Too many K’s leads to not enough R’s.

 

MW

 

So many of the experts have concluded that the Cleveland Indians’ biggest need is a right handed power hitter.  Although it would be nice to have a proven bat behind Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez in the batting order, it doesn’t appear there is one available on the trade market.  The best hitter who appears to be available is Tampa Bay 1B/OF Aubrey Huff, and he bats left handed.

 

However, maybe a leadoff hitter could be the missing piece, and I have a guy in mind who GM Mark Shapiro could probably acquire:  Reds’ infielder/outfielder Ryan Freel.  Freel is a right handed batter who can play 2B, 3B, and the outfield.  He has a lifetime on base percentage of .378, and this year has walked more than he has struck out in over 200 at bats.  He is also a base stealer, swiping 28 bases this season and 37 in 2004.  He doesn’t have much pop in his bat, but he is only 29 years old and isn’t making a whole lot of cash, an important factor for owner Larry Dolan.

 

This move would also enable the team to move current lead off hitter Grady Sizemore into the middle of the order.  Sizemore’s on base average of under .330 indicates he is not a true table setter, and his rank of second on the team in RBI’s shows he is a run producer.  He could drop to fifth or sixth in the order where he will have the opportunity to drive in more runs.

 

Getting Freel would also allow the team to bench the struggling Casey Blake.  Blake was dropped to ninth in the batting order recently, but potential rallies continue to find him.  If he is not dealt, Blake could become a utility man filling in at first base, third base, and the outfield. 

 

I would still pursue Huff, as he would be a major upgrade at 1B over current starter Ben Broussard.  The pitching has continued to be strong, save for C.C. Sabathia, so the opportunity is still there.  The offense has to be improved, and getting a slugger isn’t the only way to go.

 

MW 

 

With the Cleveland Indians remaining just 2-1/2 games behind Minnesota and Oakland in the Wild Card race, it would seem pretty obvious General Manager Mark Shapiro should add to the current roster to stay in the race.  However, it is a much more complicated question than it would appear.

 

Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane has mastered the art of buying and selling in the same trading period.  Shapiro should do the same thing.  Trading potential free agent Kevin Millwood before the July 31st deadline may say the team does not think it can get to the post season in 2005.  But if dealing the right hander could bring a hitter to bolster the Tribe’s attack, it may not be a sign of surrender.

 

Let’s face it, Millwood has only won four games for this team.  I know, I know, he has pitched well enough to win twice that amount.  If the Tribe could deal Millwood to the Angels or Rangers and get a productive hitter and then turn around and deal some prospects and spare parts to another team for a pitcher, it could be the move to get the Indians headed in the right direction.

 

For a mid market team, the idea of buying and selling before the deadline might make the most sense.

 

Patting myself on the back…Several media outlets including The Plain Dealer and Tribe announcers Mike Hegan and Rick Manning were critical of the Tribe’s move involving the recall of infielder Brandon Phillips.  This space told you the move stunk last Wednesday. 

 

Wickman going?  It has been reported that Cleveland has been talking to Boston about a possible deal involving the Tribe’s closer.  I don’t think it will happen because Wickman’s presence all year has solidified the bullpen.  Wicky may retire at the end of the year, but I don’t think he will head to the Red Sox until the Tribe falls way out of it. 

 

MW

 

It’s not bad enough that the Indians have lost 10 of their last 12 games, including getting shutout in half of their games after the All-Star break.  For some reason, the Tribe has decided to spot their opponents a player and will play with 24 guys for awhile.  No, the Tribe still has 25 players on the team.  But, they have decided that infielder Brandon Phillips will be on the team for instructional purposes, not to play.

 

Since the Indians are still only three games out of a playoff spot, this type of thinking is stupid.  Why not get a player who can help the team win?  This is the big leagues!  You can’t convince me that it is worth taking up a place on the team so Phillips can be exposed to the Major League staff.  What does this say about the coaches you employ in the minors?  If the young infielder needs more seasoning, send him back to Class AAA Buffalo and bring up someone who might be able to play and get a base hit.

 

If Phillips is here because the team is shopping him, his market value is not exactly rising while sitting on the bench.  This type of thinking does not exactly sell tickets, which is very much on the mind of Tribe Owner Larry Dolan.

 

The Indians did make a trade on Monday, sending outfielder Jody Gerut to the Cubs for outfielder Jason Dubois.  Although not a blockbuster trade, it’s worth the gamble.  Gerut never lived up to the promise of his rookie year, which was not surprising since he never put up numbers like that in the minors.  Dubois is a power bat that the team desperately needs.  He has had problems making contact in brief major league appearances, but with some consistent at-bats he may develop. 

 

MW

 

The Chicago White Sox sweep of the Cleveland Indians over the weekend means the Tribe has now lost nine of their last ten games, and is now only two games over the .500 mark at 47-45.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is the team is still only three games out of the American League Wild Card chase.

 

As usual, it is much too early to look at the Wild Card standings on a day by day basis.  But, it is too early to write off the Indians because they lost four games to the team with the best record in baseball.  I don’t think Major League Baseball will deny Cleveland entry in the playoffs because they have a bad record against good teams.  Much has been made about the White Sox 30-5 record against the Central Division teams.  The Indians have pinned three out of the five losses on the Pale Hose.  That means the Twins, Tigers, and Royals are a combined 2-20 versus Chicago.  Why is there no hand wringing about the Twins lack of success against the Sox?

 

What was disturbing about the four straight losses at home by Cleveland was the lack of hitting.  The Tribe scored just three runs off the White Sox starters in the four games. Manager Eric Wedge and GM Mark Shapiro can play Dusty Springfield records ("Wishin’ and Hopin’) all they want, but he still is not getting any offense at three positions.  Jody Gerut has apparently been benched in right for Casey Blake, who has less RBI’s on the season than Aaron Boone.  Gerut has not shown much pop this year, but he does get on base.  Perhaps moving him to the leadoff spot and dropping Grady Sizemore into a run producing spot would jump start the offense. 

 

Ben Broussard looked feeble at the plate during the series, and is hitting just .210 since the end of May.  If Shapiro can’t get a first baseman in a trade, perhaps the recall of Ryan Garko is imminent. 

 

Wedge gets a lot of flack for not bunting, but you have to get guys on base with no one out to do that.  The past few games, any rally the team starts is with one or two outs.  It is up to the players to get runs home.  Ronnie Belliard knows to get a run home with less than two outs, but isn’t patient enough to wait for a pitch he can elevate.

 

This team still needs to do the things listed in a previous blog.  There is still plenty of time left to do it, and who knows, a week from today, the Indians could be just a game out of the playoffs.  The big picture says the Tribe is still a playoff contender.

 

MW

 

The All-Star break is over and the Cleveland Indians return to the diamond tonight with the first of a four game set with the Central Division leading Chicago White Sox.  This is the first of an eleven game home stand for the Tribe.  If Cleveland wants to advance to the post season for the first time since 2001, here is a list of things that must occur:

 

1).  Start winning at home and in the division.  The Tribe is just 21-19 at home in 2005, and just 15-21 against division foes.  A change in this trend can start tonight.

 

2).  Victor Martinez must resemble the player who made the All-Star team in 2004.  With Travis Hafner leading the American League in OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage), Martinez has to start hitting or Hafner will be walked on a continuous basis.

 

3).  The bullpen has to continue its first half pace.  The Tribe’s relievers are ranked #1 in ERA, but recently have shown some wear and tear due to ranking 4th in the AL in innings pitched.  In particular, Bobby Howry and Arthur Rhodes have not done well over the last ten games.  They have to right themselves as play starts in the second half.

 

4).  C.C. Sabathia has to have a better second half.  The big lefty is not a true #1 starter yet, but he has to improve on his performance over the last month.  Sabathia has to start giving the team 7 innings on a consistant basis. 

 

5).  Add a power right handed bat.  Three positions could use a offensive upgrade the rest of the season.  At first base, Ben Broussard is too streaky to be in the middle of the lineup for a contender.  Aaron Boone’s hitting struggles have been well documented, and in right field Jody Gerut started with a bang after being recalled, but now has settled into the way he hit in 2004.  A trade to improve any of those spots would be welcomed.

 

If GM Mark Shapiro can pry Wily Mo Pena out of Cincinnati for Gerut and some prospects, that would be excellent.  Pena is still just 23 years old and has power potential galore.  If the Reds don’t want him, it would be good to see him stay in Ohio and move up north. 

 

6).  Take advantage of the schedule.  The Indians play the least amount of games against teams with a .500 record of any of the Wild Card contenders.  Cleveland must beat up on these teams the rest of the way.

 

Let the games begin again. 

 

Cavaliers’ management did the right thing in reaching an agreement with center Zydrunas Ilgauskas for the next five years.  That move coupled with the signing of free agent guard Larry Hughes last week, gives the Cavs a big three on offense, and makes power forward Drew Gooden a complementary player.

 

Everyone in Cleveland can tell you what Ilgauskas cannot do:  He’s not quick, not a great defensive player, not a good passer, but the fact is he is one of the best centers in the NBA.  He averages 17 points per game, and more than 8 rebounds a contest as well.  He also forces the opposition to double team him when he gets the ball in the post.  Ask LeBron James how important that is.

 

Z is never going to be Bill Russell offensively, but if your point guard doesn’t carry a red cape on defense (Jeff McInnis), he does an acceptable job.  Remember, these fans were the same people belittling Brad Daugherty’s contribution to the team in the 90’s.  But when Daugherty’s back went bad, it sent the team reeling into a situation that didn’t right itself until James was drafted.

 

Getting Hughes improves the Cavs on both ends of the floor.  He is not a one dimensional shooter who cannot do anything else.  He can pass, he can rebound, and he was a 1st Team All Defensive Player.  In basketball coach speak, he is a player.  Having two guys like Hughes and James who have multiple hoop skills is better than adding a shooter who can’t play D (Michael Redd) or is on the wrong side of his career (Ray Allen). 

 

GM Danny Ferry’s next move must be to find a point guard because the team can’t expect Eric Snow to play 30 minutes per game.  Getting that position filled, along with finding a good back up big man, could get the Cavs into the post season for the first time since Shawn Kemp wore the horrible periwinkle blue and black jerseys the team wore before going back to the Wine and Gold before the 2003-04 season. 

 

With all of the hand wringing about the Indians losing the first two games of a four game set against the Yankees, the team remains just one game out of a playoff spot heading into the last game prior to the All Star break.  The biggest question in whether or not the Tribe can make the post season is can they start to win at home.

 

Only the Red Sox have played more road games in the American League than the Indians, and only the White Sox have won more road games.  However, at Jacobs Field, Cleveland has just a 21-19 record, the poorest among the contenders for the Wild Card berth. 

 

After today, the Indians will have 74 games remaining, 41 of those at Jacobs Field.  It is said that good teams split their road games and win at home.  If a team does that, they will go 41-41 on the road.  To win 90 games, which would seem to insure a playoff spot, that same team must go 49-32 at home.  For the 2005 Indians to achieve that record, they will have to go 28-13 the rest of the way at Jacobs Field. 

 

Cleveland is already finished with Boston and Los Angeles at home this season.  They have only three games remaining at the Jake with Minnesota, Texas, and New York.  They played seven with the White Sox, including the first fur coming out of the break.  That is 16 of those 41 games.  The other 25 games are against teams around or below the .500 mark. 

 

So, it is possible to improve the home record.  It is imperative to come out of the break and play well against Chicago to set a tone for the second half.  Hopefully, the young Indians can take advantage of the home cooking down the home stretch of this long season.

 

MW 

 

The fans are jumping of the Titanic after last night’s 7-3 loss to Detroit yesterday.  Heading home following the game last night, I heard people calling the talk shows saying now the Tribe will get swept in the upcoming four game series against the Yankees, how the team needs to make massive changes, and how left hander C.C. Sabathia should be traded for prospects.  This sort of talk amuses me.

 

It is true the team laid an egg last night, their first clunker in a while.  After sweeping a doubleheader on the 4th of July, Cleveland lost a close game on Tuesday, 3-2 before getting just a split in the four game set with Wednesday’s defeat.  Fans said the team didn’t capitalize on the momentum gained with the sweep on Monday.  Baseball followers will tell you that in this sport, momentum is based on your team’s starting pitcher.  Each game is different, and if you are facing good pitching, your streak can end.

 

The truth is the Indians are playing well, still just a game out of second in the AL Central Division.  But listen up fans…THERE STILL ARE 78 GAMES LEFT IN THE SEASON.  Being four games ahead or four games behind at this point in the season doesn’t matter.  There still is a long, long way to go in the season.  This team is a contender for post season play after half of the schedule has been completed.

 

This is not to say this is a perfect team.  The biggest need in my opinion is a right handed hitter who can hit in the middle of the lineup.  They need to upgrade the offense at third base, first base, or rightfield, so that is the direction they should look.  The pitching staff is fine at this point of the season, and Jason Davis’ peformance in Monday’s second game shows that reinforcements are there if injuries come up.

 

As for Sabathia, we must remember that he still has not reached his 25th birthday, and has a career record of 60-40.  Is he a top of the rotation pitcher at this point?  No, but he is definitely headed in that direction.  His most glaring need is to pitch his way out of trouble, instead of just rearing back and firing.  He will learn that.  A couple of weeks ago, no less than Curt Schilling took the big lefty aside to council him.  If Schilling thinks C.C. is the read deal, that’s good enough for me. 

 

If the Tribe can split four with New York, it’s a good series for them.  It will mean a 48-40 record at the All Star break, and they will be in the thick of the postseason race.

 

The hottest team in Major League Baseball is right here in Cleveland, but it is possible that fans of the Cleveland Indians are the only ones who know that.  The Tribe is 33-17 over their last 50 games, almost a third of a season.  If the Indians had started the season with that record, it would have been a major story.  However, a 13-19 start has relegated the team to flying under the radar.

 

After winning the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader with the Tigers, Cleveland finished the first half of the season with a 45-36 mark, on pace to win 90 games.  But when the national pundits talk about the American League wild card (The Tribe is not catching Chicago), you hear talk of Minnesota, Baltimore, New York, and Texas.  Forget about the fact the Indians have a better record than all of those teams excpet for the Twins. 

 

This team has moved from 13th in the AL in runs scored to eighth in a matter of three weeks.  Parlay that with a pitching staff that ranks in the top five in ERA, and has the league’s top bullpen, and you will find one of the better teams in the Junior Circuit. 

 

The media can ignore the Cleveland Indians all they want, but the team is for real.  Adding another productive right handed bat can make the Tribe a serious contender for the post season in 2005. 

 

MW