Fall is approaching and the cracking of pads and banging of helmets can be heard all over the Buckeye state.  This is a big weekend for football in Ohio, as the #1 ranked Buckeyes take on #2 Texas, and the NFL season opens with the Browns taking on the New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns Stadium.  I’m saying we will be smiling on Monday night, basking in the glow of two victories.

 

The difference in Austin tomorrow night will be the same as last year’s game in Columbus, that is the play of the quarterbacks.  Last year, OSU’s Troy Smith was coming off a one game suspension and Justin Zwick shared time with him.  Zwick displayed once again that he was not very good, and Texas’ Vince Young made the big plays in the fourth quarter to make the difference in the game.

 

Young is now with the Tennessee Titans, and the Longhorns’ QB is now Colt McCoy.  Troy Smith is firmly entrenched as the Buckeye starter, and OSU has the Heisman Trophy candidate signal caller.  That will make the difference is this year’s game between the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country.  The Buckeyes will do what Texas did last season and will score the road win in a high scoring game and maintain it’s place on the top of the polls.

 

On Sunday, it will be the opposite type of game, a low scoring affair with the Browns emerging with a home victory.  The Saints have a new QB in Drew Brees, and some inexperienced offensive linemen, which should allow the brown and orange to apply some pressure.  This will help a banged up secondary. 

 

Offensively, Cleveland will run the ball and ask Charlie Frye not to make mistakes.  When they throw, it will be short ball control tosses to Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius.  Reuben Droughns will grind out the tough yards, and rookie third down back Jerome Harrison will make a impact as well.

 

If the Browns don’t get this one, it could be a loooong season. 

 

KM

 

 

In looking at potential free agents in the off season in baseball, the names of Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee jump out.  They are clearing the best offensive players available this winter.  Indian fans and talk show hosts have fantasized about getting the Nationals’ left fielder, moving him back to 2B, his position up to this year, and batting him fourth in the lineup behind Travis Hafner.  I say signing Soriano would be a mistake for several reasons.

 

First, Soriano is clearly having the best season of his career.  He is also 30 years old.  It is very likely he will never have a season like this again.  However, teams will line up to pay him based on this season.  My guess is Soriano will get around $15 million per year for 5 years.  That’s too much money for a player of his type.

 

Which brings up to point #2.  What kind of player is the former Yankee and Ranger?  He’s a fantasy players dream, a guy who can belt 30 HR’s and steal 30 bases.  However, he’s better on paper than on the field and not a good fit for the Tribe.  Why?  He’s not a very good defender, especially at second.  It’s no coincidence that the Indians started to play better when Shin-Soo Choo and Andy Marte, better defensive players than the guys they replaced, were put into the lineup.  And for all the Ronnie Belliard fans, yes, Belliard could turn the double play, but he is a below average defender.  The Indians don’t need the defense regressing in 2007.

 

Reason #3 is Soriano’s inability to make contact.  The Tribe already leads the American League in striking out, and Soriano fans an average of 140 times per year.  Stat guys don’t mind whiffs, but situational hitting depends on making contact, and the Indians already have several guys who struggle to make contact (Peralta, Sizemore, and Hafner will all whiff over 100 times in ’06).  This is the reason Soriano has never been a big run producer.  Despite four seasons of over 30 HR, his career high in RBI’s is only 104.  This season, he has only 88 ribbies with 44 dingers.  That means he is really only knocking in himself. 

 

There is no question the Indians could use a right handed "professional" hitter for 2007 to back Hafner.  The ballclub probably has some interest in Carlos Lee, and there is no question he is a better fit.  Lee’s a lifetime .285 hitter who has never struck out 100 times in a season.  He’s hit 30 HR’s the last four years, and knocked in 100 three of those years (99 in the other).  He plays LF, the least important defensive spot.  The problem with him is the same as any other marquee free agent, getting him to come to Cleveland.  Not to spend Larry Dolan’s cash, but a 3 year, $40 million deal seems appropriate.  That should be followed by inking Hafner for the same time period, at a little more moolah. 

 

MW

 

 

I don’t have anything against Casey Blake.  He’s a solid major league player.  He persevered in the minors for a long time before finally getting a chance with the Indians, and he took advantage of that opportunity.  However, he’s not one of the "core players" for the Tribe in 2007.  The problem is that Eric Wedge keeps treating him like he is.

 

I understand that managers have favorites, and Blake is that for Wedge.  But, this season has turned into finding out who can help this team next season, and I was dismayed on Saturday night to see the veteran in RF instead of Shin-Soo Choo with the Rangers starting a young right hander in Volquez.  I was further irritated when Blake dropped a fly ball down the right field line in the 2nd inning, a ball Choo with his speed would have easily handled.  Blake has done a solid job in RF, but the Tribe’s outfield defense is better with Choo in right and Blake in LF. 

 

Choo has hammered right handed pitching since being traded to the Indians, and he should have been in there.  If Wedge wants to give Casey Blake playing time, he should do it at the expense of Jason Michaels, not Choo.  Blake could still have a role with this team next season as a guy who can fill in at 1B, 3B, LF, and RF.  He could get 300 at bats doing this and he would still be a productive player for the Indians.  But I worry that if he still is here, he will get 500 at bats and cut into the time of younger and possibly more productive players.  Blake is a good fall back guy if Ryan Garko is the first baseman and he slumps, or if Andy Marte struggles.  That should be his role for the rest of this season as well.

 

With Travis Hafner out of the lineup due to a hand injury, isn’t this a great opportunity to move Grady Sizemore into the #3 hole?  The skipper could use Joe Inglett, Choo, or Michaels in the top spot and drop Sizemore in the order.  Wouldn’t this be preferable to moving Michaels into the third spot like Wedge did in Sunday’s game?  After all, Sizemore could be driving in some runs with his league leading total of extra base hits.  With Hafner in there, leading off the All Star makes sense, but without Pronk in there, Grady Sizemore should be batting third.

 

The Indians called up reinforcements from Buffalo, mostly to help out in the bullpen.  However, what difference does it make when the only guys the manager will use with a lead are Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera, and Tom Mastny.  Again, with the season being all about next year, it is important to use guys like Edward Mujica and Jason Davis to see if they can handle the pressure.  It is important for the players currently on the team to win, but Wedge paints himself into corners by limiting his relief corps in this manner.  Last year, it was Cabrera, Howry, and Wickman in late game situations, and I think Howry showed a little weariness in the last week of the season.  I would like to see the skipper have four or five dependable late game guys to keep everyone fresh. 

 

JK

 

The Browns concluded the "pre-season" portion of their schedule with a lackluster 20-7 loss to da Bears last night at Browns’ Stadium.  I’m not one to put a lot of stock in these games, because you don’t really know the agenda of the coaching staff.  Is the staff trying to find out what works and what doesn’t work?  Are they trying to avoid showing early opponents trends in down and distance situations?  I don’t have any better idea of what will happen against New Orleans on September 10th than I did before these games were played.  Here are some observations on the 2006 edition of the Cleveland Browns.

 

1).  The offensive line is still iffy.  Losing LeCharles Bentley was a huge blow, and Ryan Tucker has missed most of training camp, but as a whole the line has not looked good.  Charlie Frye is constantly getting out of the pocket to bide time.  I know Frye throws on the run well, so some of that is by design, but last night the QB was under pressure the entire time he was out there.   Getting Tucker back will help, but this area of the team has been a weakness since returning to the NFL, so I still need to see improvement before I believe it.

 

2).  The secondary will be fine.  Even though it has looked shaky thus far, the reason for that is the team has used guys who will be special teamers or will be cut opposite Leigh Bodden.  Getting Gary Baxter and Daylon McCutcheon back will solidify the unit.  Bodden may be turning into one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.  The safety position is solid with Brodney Pool, Sean Jones, and Brian Russell.  The unit will be okay assuming everyone stays healthy.

 

3).  Savage’s drafts.  Last year’s draft, Savage’s first as GM, is looking a little iffy.  Only Edwards and maybe Pool are starters, and most of the others (Nick Speegle, David McMillan, etc.) barely show up on the depth chart.  However, Kamerion Wimbley looks like the real deal at OLB, and D’Qwell Jackson should start at ILB.  Jerome Harrison will make an impact as a third down/change of pace back.  He’s making William Green and Lee Suggs expendable.  LB Leon Williams and WR Travis Wilson look to have solid futures as well.

 

4).  The next few days.  It will be interesting to see if Savage can recoup some draft choices before the final cutdown.  Green and Suggs should have some value.  Chaun Thompson might be moved.  You have to know that Savage hated to part with picks to get centers Ross Tucker and Lenny Friedman.  The GM will also be searching for a back up quarterback on the waiver wire. 

 

Keep in mind that none of this will matter once the regular season starts a week from Sunday.  Coach Romeo Crennel is still going to be conservative with the offense, have them "manage" the game, and don’t allow it to create problems for the defense.  Get ready for a lot of 16-13 and 14-10 type games.  That will be the norm at CBS this season.

 

JD  

 

With the Indians’ recent August surge, winning 15 out of their last 20 games, maybe talk show hosts (read:  WKNR) seem to be upset that the ballclub is finally playing well.  I can understand the frustration since this season started with so much optimism, but continuing to be angry about the situation is a little odd.

 

When a team determines that they are out of the race, they can do two things:  1).  They can continue to play the same people showing their fans they haven’t given up (Baltimore, Chicago Cubs) or 2).  They can start looking at things with an eye toward the next season, like Mark Shapiro did.  I prefer the latter. 

 

I grew up in the sixties and seventies when the Indians were out of the race by June in most seasons, and they did little to find out about the young players they had during the periods of non-contention.  Instead, they were happy to keep playing the Tom Veryzers and Duane Kuipers of the world, not bothering to find out if younger guys could help the team.  Instead of giving guys like Lou Piniella, Richie Scheinblum, and Jay Bell chances to play on bad teams, the front office let them go.  None of those guys could play for a team usually in the bottom half of the standings?

 

As for this year’s team, should they try to lose the rest of their games?  They brought in some young guys who appear to have some talent and can help this club in 2007 and beyond.  That’s what the Indians should do.  Find out about the Joe Ingletts and Ryan Garkos and Kelly Shoppachs.  This knowledge will help them in the off season as to what their needs are. 

 

I always laugh at people who complain about winning.  If the Tribe continued to lose, they would bitch and moan whether the squad was ever going to turn it around.  These same people are irritated that some of the wins came against the Royals and Devil Rays.  Would they prefer getting swept by those teams? 

 

What is happening is that the Indians are showing they were not that bad all along.  They aren’t the best team in the American League, but they are clearly better than the two teams just mentionned along with the Mariners and Orioles.  Things are beginning to balance out.  A little too late for a playoff run, but not too late to give hope in 2007.

 

MW

 

Do you want proof the young players brought in by the Indians have energized this team?  The Tribe has won 13 of its last 18 games.  Critics will say sure, but the schedule lightened up with seven games against the Royals and three with Tampa Bay.  However, Cleveland won a series vs. the contending Angels to open this streak, and took two of three against the team with the best record in the American League this weekend.  It hasn’t all been a cake walk for the young Wahoos.

 

One reason for optimism was the comeback victories against Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander.  The Tribe put a three run frame against Bonderman and a six run inning against Verlander.  Both big innings were accomplished without a home run.  The bullpen also did its job both nights, putting up five zeroes combined in the two games.

 

Yesterday was a different story.  Cliff Lee continued his struggles giving up three HR’s to the Tigers in a 7-1 loss.  Lee has now allowed 30 more hits than innings pitched, and hitters are batting .291 against him this year, compared to a lifetime figure of .263.  The lefty from Arkansas has not been the same pitcher he was last season, when he went 18-5.  The ballclub needs a return of the 2005 version of Lee to become contenders in 2007. 

 

One of the dingers by the Tigers was a little suspicious.  Marcus Thames hit a low and in fastball over the fence in centerfield for a two run bomb.  On television, the ball looked like a routine fly to center off the bat.  I understand the ball was carrying well at Jacobs Field yesterday, but still…  I wonder if Thames’ bat could be used to seal up a wine bottle. 

 

The Tribe announced Fausto Carmona had been sent to Buffalo to "lengthen" him out.  I guess he will come back a little taller.  It appears the Indians will give rookie Jeremy Sowers two more starts before being replaced by Carmona in the rotation.  GM Mark Shapiro said around four hurlers will be recalled after the September 1st roster expansion.  I’m guessing Rafael Perez, Carmona, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brian Slocum are the four in question.  Among position players, it will probably be only Franklin Gutierrez and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  The Indians only have 37 men on the 40 man roster, so they have room to add some guys not currently on the 40 man. 

 

On the field, it’s the first look at the Blue Jays with six games against them over the next week and a half.  When the team leaves for Texas on Thursday, they will get some reinforcements.  The Wahoos need to go 21-12 the rest of the way to get back to .500.  If they continue to play as they have for the past three weeks, it’s an attainable goal.

 

JK

 

I had plenty of time to think while watching the Tribe overcome a 10-1 first inning deficit Wednesday night.  Here are some of the things I was pondering…

 

Wedge’s handling of the pitching staff.  I realize that having a horrible bullpen makes a manager gun shy.  What worries me is the extended outings demanded of the starters in a season going nowhere.  Last night, C.C. Sabathia threw 122 pitches in his win over Kansas City.  The big lefty is the Tribe’s best starter, and putting extra wear and tear on his arm at this point in time in this season is not very smart.  The skipper has also extended Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd in recent weeks.  Use the young guys in the pen for an inning at a time and bring them in to start the frame.  It does no good to hurt the arm of a Sabathia or Westbrook in a season where you are going to finish fourth.  I want Wedge to try to win, but keep an eye on 2007 too.

 

Cavs sign Scot Pollard.  A solid signing for GM Danny Ferry.  He gets a veteran who is willing to bang to be the fifth big man in the rotation.  The one flaw for Pollard is durability.  In the last four seasons, the most game he has played in a campaign was 61 in 2003-04.  The last time he played 80 games was five seasons ago.  I’m sure Mike Brown is not expecting Pollard to play 70 games this season, in spite of Kenny Roda’s insane thought that Pollard should start.  He’s a veteran who knows the league and wants to win.  He should help the Cavaliers this season.

 

Should Edwards play?  Why not.  If the doctors clear him, then why shouldn’t Romeo Crennel give him a few plays in a live game.  He has to get on the field at some point, and do you really want that moment to be in a regular season game.  Yes, he could re-injure the knee, but he could get hurt in practice too, or don’t you remember LeCharles Bentley.  I’m pretty sure the Browns’ team physicians wouldn’t say last year’s #1 draft pick could play if his knee was in bad shape.

 

The return of Casey Blake.  Blake has had a fine season, although has had to go on the disabled list twice.  But, if Eric Wedge is going to put him back in the lineup, and he will, it should be mostly as a left fielder.  It would be doing a disservice to the franchise to cut the playing time of Ryan Garko, Franklin Gutierrez, and Shin-soo Choo in order to play the veteran.  Again, he need to find out about these guys for 2007, and they need to get as many opportunities as possible.  This is something to keep an eye on down the stretch.

 

Enjoy the start of the high school football season this weekend.  Those kids play for the team, not the individual.

 

KM

 

As the Cleveland Indians front office looks forward to 2007, I have looked at their roster and needs as well.  One thing this ballclub needs is a proven right handed hitter to protect Travis Hafner.  More and more teams are pitching around Pronk to get to Victor Martinez, who is a good hitter, but doesn’t have a lot of home run power, nor does he run well.  The best spot in the lineup for Martinez might very well be lower in the order, perhaps in the #6 hole.

 

Couple this with the defensive weaknesses, mostly in regards to throwing, and you have to wonder about the catchers’ future with the Indians.  Yes, he has been playing some 1B since Kelly Shoppach was returned to the big club, but is Martinez’ bat good enough to play that position on a contending team?  Unless he can jack the number of home runs per season to 25+, the answer is probably no.

 

Yes, I realize that the Tigers went with Chris Shelton and Sean Casey, and the Yankees played Andy Phillips at first for most of the year.  Power isn’t a prerequisite to play 1B on good teams.   However, Martinez’ power numbers are starting to drop.  After belting 23 HR’s and 108 RBI’s in 2004, his numbers dropped to 20 dingers and 80 ribbies last year.  This year, the HR number will drop to 16 to 18.  Maybe playing 1B most of the time will give his power numbers a boost, since the wear and tear of crouching behind the plate will be reduced, if not gone.  As a catcher, his impact as an offensive player is starting to diminish.

 

So, it might be the ideal time to trade Victor Martinez.  He is the type of player who should bring considerable return for the franchise.  The Indians need a power hitting corner outfielder, preferably a right handed hitter.  It needs a second baseman, and a lot of help in the bullpen.  Dealing Martinez might fill two of those holes.  I understand that the switch hitter is a core player, but it appears he is starting to decline a bit, perhaps due to catching around 140 games the past two seasons. 

 

Remember what Branch Rickey said, it’s better to trade someone a year too soon, than a year too late.  This is a huge decision for GM Mark Shapiro.  Remember that Shapiro dealt Roberto Alomar, who never had a very good year after leaving here.  He took a lot of flak, and the return from the Mets wasn’t what was expected, but the GM’s evaluation of Alomar was correct.  If Shapiro has those feelings about Victor Martinez, he should pull the trigger and fill some holes in return.

 

MW

 

Friday night’s debacle against the Devil Rays really was hard to take.  C.C. Sabathia pitched another fine game, but left after the 8th inning with a lead.  Sabathia was over 100 pitches, so Manager Eric Wedge went to his struggling bullpen.  Jason Davis is inconsistent, but had the team’s only save, so he was the leading candidate to be brought in.  However, Wedge decided to go with Brian Sikorski, who has allowed four HR’s in nine innings thrown in a Tribe uniform.  Why?

 

I understand that the rest of this season is to see what the club has for next year.  But, the skipper still has an obligation to Sabathia, who has been a loyal soldier to the organization.  The big lefty has been pitching lights out over the last month, and is not getting any wins to show for it.  Out of all the options at hand to pitch the ninth, Sikorski would have been the fourth option to me. 

 

First, I would have used Davis.  Yes, he runs hot and cold, but he did earn the save at Fenway Park earlier this month, and he didn’t hold the lead in his most recent chance against the Royals because of Hector Luna’s error.  My second choice would have been Tom Mastny (this was before his save on Saturday) since he has done nothing but get guys out since being called up from Buffalo.  I would have used Fausto Carmona ahead of Sikorski, just based on pure stuff. 

ir

So, Sikorski comes on and Travis Lee hits one off the fence immediately.  The manager waited until the game was tied to get Davis into the game, and the big righty gave up a walk and the game winning hit to Carl Crawford.  Keep in mind that Davis is horrible when entering the game with runners in scoring position.  What gives?  What turned into a series win against the D-Rays should have been a series sweep.  The next night, Mastny did come on and pitched two impressive frames, striking out three.  Before yesterday’s game, the STO announcing crew told me that the rookie righthander may not get the next save situation.  Why the hell not?

 

Eric Wedge has been the Tribe’s manager for four seasons.  The bullpen has been in shambles for 2-1/2 of those years.  Only when Bob Wickman was here and everybody knew he was the closer, has the relief corp been settled.  It appears that Wedge or Carl Willis do not know how to identify a guy who can wrap up a game.  I agreed with their assessment of Carmona, but when that plan failed for the moment, there’s no alternative.  Mastny got the last save, so he should get the next opportunity.  If he fails, he’s the lastest who did.  If he succeeds, maybe the Indians found a guy who can close. 

 

This is not to say that Tom Mastny is the next Mariano Rivera, but he has demonstrated the ability to get guys out.  He deserves the chance, and he deserves it more than a guy who’s allowed four dingers in the equivalent of one game. 

 

JK

 

The Cleveland Cavaliers signed restricted free agent forward Drew Gooden to a three year contract the other day, putting another piece from last year back in place.  The debate as to whether or not it is a good signing will be waged, but it doesn’t hurt to keep a starter from a team that won a playoff series on the squad.

 

Gooden is one of the favorite whipping boys for the fans since most people would like a Karl Malone type as the team’s power forward.  But, the Kansas alum is a serviceable player, and sharing time at the #4 spot with Anderson Varajao isn’t a bad twosome to have at the position.  I believe Gooden could provide more offense if the team ran a few plays for him.  Actually, it would be nice if they ran plays for anybody. 

 

Another year under Coach Mike Brown’s defensive system should improve Gooden’s ability to defend the pick and roll, a major weakness for him last year.  That’s the main reason the former Jayhawk star would sit late in games in favor of Varajao.  It’s likely Brown will go with a four man rotation at the 4/5 positions with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Donyell Marshall.

 

The Cavs still have a glut of wings.  Besides starters LeBron James and Larry Hughes, GM Danny Ferry still has Sasha Pavlovic, Luke Jackson, Stephen Graham, Ira Newble, and rookie Shannon Brown on the roster.  They also still need a point guard.  Eric Snow can probably still give the team 20 good minutes per game in the regular season.  Who plays the other 28?  It’s obvious the wine and gold have soured on Damon Jones.  I’m sure Hughes can give them some minutes at the point, but he is not the long term answer at the position.  Rookie Daniel Gibson might work out down the road, but not this year.  This is still an area needing a solution. 

 

The Cavs might still be able to get a good solid role player at this late juncture in the free agent period.  Training camp starts in six weeks, so it is getting late quickly.  Starting the season with basically the same team will help the Cavs get off to a good start, but the roster has to be upgraded to advance further in the playoffs.

 

JK