Opening Day is less than one week away. Monday night, the Cliff Lee will toe the rubber against the Rangers in Arlington as the 2009 season gets underway. How will the Indians do this season? Will Travis Hafner come back? How will the bullpen perform? Will the starting rotation turn into “Carmona and Lee then get down on your knee”?
I would love to say the Cleveland Indians will win the 2009 American League Central Division, but I can’t. My gut tells me we are looking at a third place finish this year, behind the Twins and White Sox, and the biggest reason for that is the starting pitching.
This has nothing to do with Cliff Lee’s struggles in Arizona, either. Lee’s a proven veteran, and he looks at spring training as a way to try out different things against hitters, and as a way to get his arm ready to make 35 starts throughout the next six months. Fausto Carmona looks good too. He seems to have recovered the control he lost in 2008, and is throwing strikes. AL hitters can attest that if Carmona gets ahead of you, he’s very difficult to hit.
I haven’t seen enough of the rest of the starters to foresee a first place finish. Carl Pavano has looked good in his last two spring starts, but you have to remember that they came against the Padres. Anthony Reyes has pitched well all spring, but his elbow is definitely a question mark. Neither right-hander has healthy for a full major league season since 2004. It’s a giant leap of faith to expect it in 2009.
As for the fifth starter, it will be done as a committee approach as the roster will extend to Class AAA Columbus. Scott Lewis will not have a long leash, especially after yesterday’s game, as Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey, and David Huff are waiting in the wings. It would not be surprising to see Huff with more starts than the others come the end of the season.
The bullpen will be fine with Kerry Wood as the anchor, and Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, and Rafael Betancourt setting him up. Joe Smith is a good pick up as a situational right-hander. And another lefty, Tony Sipp, will start the year in Columbus, but could make an impact before the season is done.
This team will score runs, with or without a healthy Travis Hafner. Victor Martinez’ return will give the lineup another professional hitter with power, and count me among those who believe Shin-Soo Choo will have a big year at the dish. Mark DeRosa looks to be a good fit hitting second behind Grady Sizemore, as he is a patient hitter with some pop. Also, having an in shape Asdrubal Cabrera will give the bottom of the order a quality hitter.
This is not to say the Cleveland Indians cannot win the division, but there are too many question marks in the starting rotation for me to feel confident that they can win. I think the Indians are a good team, and they will win between 85-90 games. However, with the rotation in a state of flux, they will probably be on the lower end of that range. That won’t be enough to get to the playoffs.
If Mark Shapiro can deal some of his excess at the 1B/OF/DH spots and turn them into a reliable starting pitcher, the Indians can win. However, I don’t have the confidence that this will happen. Therefore, I have to think third place for the ’09 Cleveland Indians.
MW