Right Now, Tribe Counting on Good Things to Happen for Contention

Roughly two years ago, around this time, the Cleveland Indians announced the signing of free agent Nick Swisher to a four-year contract.

We bring this up, because it’s the last time the Tribe front office did anything off the field to excite its fan base.

There is no question the Indians are in a tough situation.  They have assembled a solid young core of talent that is under control for the next three to four seasons.

They have the reigning Cy Young Award winner in the American League in Corey Kluber and another player in Michael Brantley that finished in the top three in the AL MVP voting.

They have one of the top catchers in the game in Yan Gomes, and a host of good, young arms, albeit without extensive track records in the starting rotation.

However, the face of the franchise is probably their manager, Terry Francona.

GM Chris Antonetti has made one move this off-season, getting left-handed slugger Brandon Moss from Oakland for a minor league second baseman, but that move gives Francona a glut at 1B, RF, and DH with Moss, David Murphy, Carlos Santana, and Swisher, not to mention Ryan Raburn.

The Indians made the wild card game in ’13, and went to the final weekend of the 2014 season with a chance to repeat a post-season appearance.  So, they most definitely have to be considered a contender.

That’s why this would be as good a chance as any to take a shot and “go for it”, like many teams have this winter.

The franchise has needed another solid bat, particularly one from the right side for several years, and they could use another reliable veteran starter to go with the kids they’ve assembled.  However, the ownership’s glass ceiling of an $85 million payroll ties the hands of the front office.

Instead, the management talks about how the Tigers likely won’t be as good as they were this season, and the Royals look like they will lose James Shields, so the Tribe is in the mix.

It seems their primary plan to win is other teams not being as good.

Within their own division, the Tigers have a better hitting lineup on paper with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Yoenis Cespedes in the middle of the batting order, and Chicago has two top starters in Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija.   Not to mention the Royals are the defending American League champions.

The Indians are hoping Jason Kipnis has a rebound season, Lonnie Chisenhall hits in the second half like he did in the first half, and Michael Bourn and Swisher can stay healthy.

They also need seasons similar to last season from Brantley, Gomes, and Kluber.

That’s a lot of wishin’ and hopin’.

While defenders of the ownership will claim attendance has to improve for the team to spend, we are here to tell you there is a large core of baseball fans in the area who want the front office to show they are all in, much like the White Sox have shown their ticket buyers.

Imagine if the Indians traded for Samardzija or signed Melky Cabrera as a free agent.  The former would have formed a great one-two punch with Kluber at the top of the rotation, while the latter would have been a great fit in RF, a switch-hitter with a high average and some pop.

Yes, we know the White Sox play in one of the top media markets in the country, but Seattle isn’t and they signed a player who hit 40 homers a year ago.

We are excited about the Indians because they are a solid team, but they need a boost to make them a favorite for a division title, and to interest the fans in the area.

They still have two months until spring training starts, so there is still time for trades, but right now the Indians seem content to do what they normally do.

Fair or not, they need to do something to compete with the Browns and Cavaliers for the ticket money and headlines in the media.

MW

Manziel Not Good, But Several People Let Him Down

It turns out that Johnny Manziel is just like any other rookie quarterback who has entered the NFL in the recent future and is not named Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.

That is to say there is a learning curve and struggles early for most QBs in the NFL coming right out of college.

However, coach Mike Pettine gave the right answer after the game when asked who would be his starter at the position next week at Carolina when he gave Manziel’s name as the answer.

After all, there can’t be another first start for the former Heisman Trophy winner.  It should be only up hill from here if he has the talent to be successful in the National Football League.

Still, even in his dismal performance, and being 10 of 18 for 80 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 defeat is indeed dismal, there are several people who let the rookie down.  And in saying that, we realize both picks were plays that worked in college for Johnny Football, but don’t work for John Professional.

Kyle Shanahan.  We wanted to see Manziel run the offense that worked for Cleveland the first eight weeks of the season, meaning the attack Brian Hoyer ran, but with a quarterback with a stronger arm and more mobility.

Instead we got some elements of the read-option, an offense that really hasn’t work since Robert Griffin III’s rookie season.

On the Browns’ first possession, they faced a third and 2, and it looked like the play call was for Manziel to fake a throw and then run up the middle.  He was stopped short, and after the Bengals ate up seven minutes on their initial possession, they got the ball back after three plays.

Why not have Manziel rollout with the option of a short, safe throw?

Then, there was no attempt by Shanahan to establish the running game which was so effective against Cincinnati the first time the two teams met either.

After that initial series, eight of the next 11 plays run by Cleveland were passing plays.  So much for easing your rookie signal caller in.

It looks like the offensive coordinator got caught looking at Texas A & M game films from the last two seasons instead of what the Browns did well in their first 13 contests.

Receivers. It wasn’t the finest performance by the Cleveland receiving corps either, particularly Andrew Hawkins, who dropped a throw that could’ve kept the Browns on the field on their second possession.

After moving out of the pocket, Manziel threw a strike to Hawkins for a first down that was dropped after the wide out was hit by Reggie Nelson. Yes, it was a big hit, but we’ve seen Hawkins take bigger hits and hold on.  The drop forced another punt, forcing the defense back on the field.

Walt Anderson. Yes, today’s referee was a culprit as well. Apparently, Mr. Anderson likes being on television, calling nine penalties on Cleveland.  While some were deserved, two on the Bengals first drive aided them to a 7-0 lead.

The first was Barkevious Mingo’s roughing the passer call on a third down throw.  Yes, technically, Mingo’s helmet hit Andy Dalton’s, but the outside linebacker didn’t lead with his headgear.  Instead of forcing an early punt, Cincinnati kept possession.

The second call, a horse collar tackle on Justin Gilbert against Giovani Bernard didn’t give the Bengals a first down, but it was still terrible because Bernard didn’t go down as a result of the so-called illegal move.

Also, the illegal man downfield against Ryan Seymour on a screen pass to Jordan Cameron was also a reach.

In a 30-0 loss, pointing to the officials seems a little tacky, but could the game have been different if Cleveland forces a punt early?  We’ll never know.

The Defense. The Cleveland problem stopping the run reared its ugly head again today, as they allowed 244 rushing yards.  We don’t know the success rate of teams that allow over 200 yards on the ground in an NFL game, but it probably isn’t high.

Manziel didn’t play well in his debut, and the shutout loss today put the Browns out of the playoffs again barring some sort of miracle.  However, we should see progress next week.

That’s a reason to stay interested in this football team.

JD

Manziel’s Role Model Should Be Wilson

So, it’s now official.  Johnny Manziel will make his first start of the season this Sunday at First Energy Stadium against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Mike Pettine is 100% correct in saying the rookie currently gives his football team a better chance to win this week and for the final two games of the season.  The Cleveland offense under Brian Hoyer had become stagnant, and wasn’t able to take advantage of the turnovers and great field position the defense had given them.

It is refreshing to hear Manziel say that he will not be the player he was at Texas A & M, because he can’t be.  This is the NFL, and hopefully the former Heisman Trophy winner will change his style to adapt to the bigger and faster athletes in professional football.

Here’s hoping that Johnny Football emulates in style the Super Bowl winning quarterback of a year ago, Russell Wilson.

Wilson is around the same size as Manziel and he also has the ability to be mobile.  However, the Seahawks don’t run a lot of read option plays for Wilson, probably because they want him to stay healthy and limit the hits on him.

We know that offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan coached Robert Griffin III during his first two years in the league and Griffin ran the football a lot.  We hope that Shanahan has observed that style of offense doesn’t really work in today’s NFL.

We would like to see Manziel make most of his plays from the pocket, but with the added dimension of being able to move out of the pocket if the protection breaks down.  Certainly, the new quarterback has better arm strength, so the offense may be able to take some shots down the field.

As CBS college football analyst and former Browns’ QB Gary Danielson said earlier this year, Manziel needs to realize there are 4000 yards in the pocket, and maybe 500 yards running the ball.

Some quarterbacks struggle with making the conversion from college to playing inside the tackles in the NFL.  Griffin III is the most current example, but Michael Vick has had the same issues over his years in the league.

On the other hand, Donovan McNabb came into the league with the reputation of being a running quarterback, but quickly learned the lesson that playing from the pocket is what wins in the NFL.

Think about it.  The great passers currently in the NFL are pocket passers:  Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisburger.  The latter two can use their legs to extend plays, but they run the ball out of necessity, not generally from designed plays.

That’s the way to go if Manziel wants to have a long, successful career in the league.

As for this Sunday, if JFF can make some plays with his legs to revitalize what has become a moribund attack, then fine.  The team needs to win this Sunday to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Also, here’s hoping that Shanahan gives him some safe throws early in the game to ease him into his first start.  Although, it would be fun to see the rookie drop back on his first play from scrimmage and look deep for Josh Gordon, just to show Cincinnati the Browns now have the ability to stretch the field.

There is no question that Manziel brings a buzz to the “Battle of Ohio”.  But to have extended success in the NFL and have the chance to become the franchise quarterback for the Browns, he will need to make an adjustment in the style of play he used in college.

It may not be exciting for the Manzealots, but it’s the smart way to go.

JD

Tribe Gathers A Moss

We have advocated for a long time that the Cleveland Indians have strengths in their organization and needed to use some depth in those areas to acquire pieces the ballclub needs.

Those strengths are in the middle infield and bullpen depth.

Yesterday, they did exactly that, trading minor league 2B Joe Wendle to the Oakland A’s for 1B/OF/DH Brandon Moss.

Wendle is a solid prospect, but let’s face it, he stuck behind Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez with the big club, so future playing time in Cleveland has to be considered bleak.

Dealing from strength is the chief reason we like this trade from the Indians’ standpoint.

The other is Moss’s power.  Remember the end of August to the middle of September when the only Indian who could hit a home run was Carlos Santana?  Moss should take care of that, having hit 76 home runs over the last three seasons.

The newest Indian should enjoy not playing in Oakland’s pitching friendly park.  He hit .265 with 13 homers in 272 at bats away from the bay last season, posting an outstanding 831 OPS in 2014.

He is also reported to be a great clubhouse presence, which manager Terry Francona likes to have.  We don’t think the front office would bring in a player who would be a problem in the locker room.

He does strike out a lot, whiffing 153 times last season.

That’s just one of the reasons for concern.  Moss hit just .173 with 4 dingers in the second half of the season a year ago, battling a bad hip which he had surgery on in the off-season.  In fact, it has been reported he will not be ready for spring training.

He also is a left-handed batter, adding yet another to the collection that GM Chris Antonetti is putting together.  There is no question the Indians need a solid right-handed bat, and they may still be looking for one, but with Michael Brantley, Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Michael Bourn, the Tribe is vulnerable to southpaw pitchers.

You also have to wonder about the ramifications for the rest of the roster with this move.  Moss is primarily a 1B and a DH, he’s not particularly a good outfielder defensively, and the Tribe seems to have Carlos Santana and Nick Swisher currently manning those spots.

The Cleveland defense was shaky last season, so putting Moss and his surgically repaired hip in RF doesn’t really address that area.  You have to wonder if Antonetti’s next move is dealing Swisher, if that is possible.

The only way we can see that happening is if the Indians are willing to eat some of his large contract, something the current front office has been loathe to do.  We would do it because, let’s say you pay half of the $15 million owed each of the next two years, you would then have $7.5 million to spend elsewhere.

If we were Antonetti, we would still be looking for a right-handed hitter and another innings eater for the rotation.  The Tribe still has the bullpen depth and some young back of the rotation arms to dangle.

With the White Sox making a splash in trades and free agency, Antonetti can’t stand pat with the current roster.  He still needs to improve the club.  We are skeptical, but here’s hoping another decent move is coming for the Cleveland Indians.

KM

 

Pettine’s Loyalty Bites Him Today

Normally, when a defense forces four turnovers and scores two touchdowns at home, you can expect a victory.

The Cleveland Browns did just that today, yet still lost to the Indianapolis Colts, 25-24 at First Energy Stadium to drop their record to 7-6, and the light showing the brown and orange’s playoff hopes in flickering at best.

Early in the week, coach Mike Pettine showed his faith in Brian Hoyer by having his remain as the starting quarterback, but once the game begin and Hoyer turned it over in the red zone after a four play drive in which the Browns had excellent field position (they took over at the Indy 46), Pettine backtracked.

The play calling was such that the coaching staff was trying to protect Hoyer from committing more errors.

If you are going to do that, then he should have just played Johnny Manziel.

Cleveland left points on the board all day long.  In the first half, they started drives on their own 45, the Colts’ 46, and their own 35 yard lines, and scored no points.

The had just one scoring drive all day long, that late in the second quarter when the key play was a 27 yard toss to Travis Benjamin.  That may sound good, but on the previous play, Hoyer missed a wide open Taylor Gabriel overthrowing him by 1on yards.  An accurate throw there results in a touchdown.

That gives the Browns a 14-7 lead at halftime, the other score coming when Andrew Luck was sacked and fumbled, which was recovered in the end zone by Craig Robertson, who was all over the field today, for six points.

For the second straight week, the defense forced a turnover on the first drive of the second half, when Joe Haden forced a fumble which Paul Kruger recovered at the Indianapolis 38 yard line.

No points resulted, as the Colts forced a punt.

The defense, magnificent all day, took matters into their own hands again when rookie CB Justin Gilbert picked off Luck and raced 23 yards for a touchdown.  That was as good as it got, a 21-7 Cleveland advantage.

Another interception early in the fourth quarter, this one by Jim Leonhard, who had a sack as well, give the Browns the ball on the Colts’ 23 yard line.  A touchdown would have given the Browns a 28-19 lead with 12 minutes left.

The offense couldn’t move it again and Cleveland settled for a Billy Cundiff field goal keeping it a one possession game at 24-19.

Hoyer completed just 14 of 31 throws for 140 yards and two interceptions, the last on the penultimate play of the game, extinguishing any chance of the comeback win.

The defense gave Pettine every chance to win the game, the offense simply didn’t take advantage.  Hoyer was struggling so much that it wouldn’t have been a surprise if Manziel would’ve started the second half, but the coach stuck to his guns.

However, he shot himself in the foot.

More on the defense, which seemed to be on the field the entire second half.  Robertson and Leonhard were already mentioned, but Joe Haden and Buster Skrine were great today, and Barkevious Mingo deflected a pass and had a sack.

The way the entire unit played, they deserved to come away with the win.

The offense was simply not up to par with their teammates on the other side of the ball, nor was Cundiff, who missed another mid-range kick, this one from 40 yards.

The guess here is the Browns will have a new field goal kicker next week against the Bengals.

That will go along with their new quarterback, because if Pettine thinks about what’s best for his football team, he will give the nod to Manziel in the last home game.

Yes, the Browns are still in a race for the post-season, but they now need to win every game remaining on the schedule.  They showed today they are capable of that, but they need the offense to help.

Hoyer played the first 11 games because he gave the Browns the best chance for success.  We don’t think you can say that any more.

JD

A Plan to Rest LeBron

During the Cleveland Cavaliers’ slow start, David Blatt received a lot of criticism from people who expected the wine and gold to be 82-0 for the regular season.  After all, they added the best player on the planet, LeBron James and another all-star in Kevin Love to Kyrie Irving.

Now that the Cavs have won four in a row, some of that criticism has subsided, but there is one area that the new to the NBA coach needs to make an adjustment.  That would be controlling the minutes of James, who will turn 30 years old at the end of the month, and has a lot of miles on his legs, having spent 10 full seasons in the league, plus playoffs, and his stints with USA Basketball.

James is currently averaging 37.7 minutes per night, which is right in line with the last three years he spent in Miami.  However, he has accumulated more than 40 minutes in a game seven times in the season’s first 16 games.

That’s not going to help him or the Cavs if they do indeed make a deep run in the NBA playoffs.

So, Blatt has to make a conscious effort to limit James’ minutes, especially during this time of the regular season, when, let’s face it, the games don’t have a heck of a lot of meeting.

We are sure Blatt intends to give James around 35 minutes per night going into each game, but our guess is his competitive nature gets in the game, and as the contest goes on he wants LeBron on the floor so the Cavs have a better chance for victory.

Part of it could also be adapting to a 48 minute game too.  In a shorter contest, resting a player five minutes gets them to 35 minutes on the floor, in the NBA, a player has to sit out for 13 minutes to be at that kind of playing time.

As a compromise, we would suggest James sitting out the last three minutes of the first quarter and the first four minutes of the second quarter.  Currently, he is playing the entire first stanza.  This would give him seven minutes off in the first half, and if Love and Irving are on the floor at that point, the Cavs shouldn’t be in any danger of getting blown out.

In the second half, the coach can keep James off the floor the last two minutes of the third quarter and first two minutes of the fourth quarter.  That get James to 37 minutes per night.  And when the Cavaliers get a blow out win, he will get even more time off.

We also think having LBJ on the floor as much as he is provides a crutch to the players coming off the bench, meaning they think James will handle things, and they are reluctant to step up.

While James is resting, why can’t Dion Waiters pick up the scoring slack?  We know Waiters can put the ball in the basket, and if he can produce when he’s in there, it means LeBron can watch from the sidelines.

And that will also make the Cavs a stronger team.

If you spend as much time in the Association as James, it takes its toll.  That isn’t to say LBJ is no longer a dominant player, but he does need to start cutting back on his minutes if he is to be at top form when the playoffs start.  David Blatt knows this, he just needs to stick to the plan.

JK

Hoyer’s Lack Of Production Means It’s Time for Manziel

If you are a regular reader of this blog, you know that one of our central theories in evaluating players is the “can’t do any worse” theory.

Simply put, when looking at a veteran player’s performance, you have to determine whether a young player could do any worse than the incumbent, because it isn’t a stretch to believe the young player will get better with age and experience.

That’s where we are with the Cleveland Browns and their quarterback situation.

In the first nine games this season, Brian Hoyer provided stability at the position.  No, he wasnt’ Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Aaron Rodgers, but he moved the team and protected the football, leading the Browns to a 6-3 record, one far better than most figured at the beginning of the season.

He threw 10 touchdown passes and just four interceptions in those nine contests.

In the last four games, something has changed.  Hoyer has become turnover prone and his inaccuracy has become a huge problem.  He’s thrown just one TD pass and six interceptions in those three games.  His completion percentage, never high even when he wasn’t turning the ball over, is a paltry 50.8% over that span, which has resulted in two losses.

We understand that players have bad games, but the good ones rebound with a solid game the following week.  When a player like Hoyer, who really doesn’t have a proven track record in the NFL has three straight mediocre games, you have to question whether or not he is the guy to lead the team going forward.

And it’s not only protecting the ball either.  Hoyer isn’t taking advantage of the turnovers his defense is creating for him.

Against Atlanta, the Browns’ defense handed him the ball twice in Falcon territory and in both cases, Cleveland could only muster a field goal.

And Sunday versus the Bills, Joe Haden picked off Kyle Orton on the second play of the second half, giving the Browns the ball on the Buffalo 30-yard line.  This time, the offense was forced to punt the ball away when Hoyer took a critical sack.

That’s the kind of performance you would expect from an average or below average player at the position.  And because of that, the Browns need to find out if Johnny Manziel can be a difference maker.

We have said all along that the quarterback who gives the Browns the best chance to win should be the guy who plays, which is what Mike Pettine has always said.  Right now, do you really think Manziel gives Cleveland less of a chance of winning?

With all things being equal, why not play the younger, more athletic player?  Manziel has more upside and quite frankly, why not see what you have in a first round draft pick.

Had Hoyer been playing at the same level he was during the first half of the season, it would be ridiculous to make such a change in the middle of a post-season race, and make no mistake, despite not having the advantage in the tie breaking scenarios, the brown and orange are right in the thick of the playoff chase.

However, the offense has bogged down and the Browns need to score points to win.

Still, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and Pettine need to tell Manziel that possession of the football is a precious thing, and stress to him that the Cleveland formula for winning is the way they played during the first eight games, and that is mistake free/turnover free football.

If you can get the best of what Hoyer did in the first half of the season with Manziel’s arm and mobility, it may be just what the doctor ordered for the Browns.

The time is here.  Manziel should get the start against Indianapolis at home this Sunday.

JD

 

Browns Loss Sure To Be Overshadowed.

The Cleveland Browns were in trouble at halftime even though they were leading 3-0 over the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Why?  Because they pretty much dominated the half and yet had only a three-point lead.  Billy Cundiff missed a 37-yard field goal, his third miss inside 40 yards in the last three games.

The Bills had only one sustained drive, and that resulted in Jim Leonhard’s interception in the end zone.

Otherwise, the Browns controlled the game.  They had two drives of 15 plays and yet put only three points on the scoreboard.

Once the second half started, once again Cleveland made big plays yet couldn’t do anything.

Bills’ QB Kyle Orton’s second half of the half was intercepted by Joe Haden, giving the brown and orange the ball on the Buffalo 30 yard line.

But the offense could do nothing and a sack of Brian Hoyer resulted in the Browns having to punt, thus getting no points out of the turnover.

And that was really the story of the game.  Buffalo got 10 points off of the three Cleveland turnovers, while the Browns didn’t or couldn’t take advantage of the Bills’ two.

Yet, all anyone will be talking about is who will start at quarterback for the Browns next week at home against Indianapolis, because after Hoyer’s second pick, his fifth in the last two games without a touchdown, coach Mike Pettine decided to give first round draft pick Johnny Manziel a shot.

And the rookie took advantage on his first drive, moving the Browns down the field and getting into the end zone himself on a 10-yard run.

He looked poised and in charge, telling players to get in the correct position.  He didn’t look like he was unsure at all.

The next time Cleveland got the ball, he looked like a rookie, almost fumbling (the officials ruled his arm going forward) and throwing a 5-yard pass on 4th down and 6, thereby turning the ball over to Buffalo.

Still, we can understand Pettine’s decision.

Hoyer’s chief attribute this season was not making the big mistake and in the last two games he has committed five turnovers, putting undo pressure on the Cleveland defense.

If he’s not going to take care of the football, why not go with the guy with the better arm and more mobility.

That’s not to say that Manziel should be the starter next Sunday.  It could be that Pettine and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was sending a message to Hoyer that carelessness cannot and will not be tolerated.

Or perhaps the coaching staff feels Manziel is ready to play after watching 11 games from the sidelines, and his time is now.

It’s a delicate decision because only Cincinnati won in the AFC North today, meaning the Browns are still tied for second at 7-5 with the Steelers and Ravens, and don’t forget, the Bengals come here in two weeks.

There is no doubt that whatever Pettine decides it will over analyzed and over discussed.

Hoyer needs to have a strong running game to play well, and the Bills put eight and nine men in the box regularly, determined to stop the run.

Isaiah Crowell had just 29 yards in 17 carries, and even though Terrance West had 32 in seven attempts, his fumble gave the Bills a 14-3 lead when it was returned for a touchdown.  Cleveland gained just 2.8 yards in 26 attempts.

On defense, Joe Haden made life miserable for rookie WR Sammy Watkins, who caught just three passes for 11 yards.  After a slow start to the season, Haden is showing again why he is an elite cornerback.

Now, the season is into the last quarter, and the Browns, despite today’s loss are right in the thick of the playoff race.  So, while fans may want to look toward the future with Manziel, Pettine still wants to win games.  He now faces the controversial decision of just who gives him the best chance to do that.

JD

 

If Hoyer’s Not Hurt Last Year, Is Pettine in CLE This Year?

In a weird way, Browns’ coach Mike Pettine owes his current job to Brian Hoyer, and not because of the quarterback’s performance this year in leading the Browns to a 7-4 record thus far.

Let’s go back to last season, when Cleveland got off to a 2-2 start going into a week five matchup with the Buffalo Bills, who coincidentally are the brown and orange’s opponents this Sunday.

We all know what happened in that game, Hoyer tore his ACL and was out for the season, forcing then head coach Rob Chudzinski to have to use Brandon Weeden, who didn’t play well in a week one loss to Miami or a week two loss to Baltimore.

Later, Chudzinski went to Jason Campbell and back to Weeden because the former got hurt.

The effect we took away from the season was the Browns were a decent, competitive team when they received competent quarterbacking play, which is what they received from Hoyer in wins against Minnesota and Cincinnati.

Notice we didn’t say great QB play, just decent play.  That’s how close the Browns were to respectability in 2013.

We decided to test our theory, and used the average passer rating from last year, which was the 87.0 mark posted by Andrew Luck.  We arrived at this figure because there were 37 QBs who qualified for the rating and Luck ranked 18th, right in the middle.

Weeden achieved a QBR higher than 87.0 just twice last season.  He posted a 95.3 rate (13 for 24, 197 yards and a touchdown) in the game he relieved Hoyer in a 37-24 win over the Bills, and a 94.8 rating in a 32-28 loss to the Jaguars (24 of 40, 370 yards, 3 TDs and 2 interceptions).

Campbell had three games in which his rating was above 87.0.  He posted a 105.4 in a 23-17 loss to Kansas City, who was unbeaten at the time (22 of 36, 293 yards and 2 touchdowns), a 116.3 in a 24-18 win over the Ravens (23 for 35, 262 yards and 3 scoring throws), and a 116.8 in the heartbreaking 27-26 loss to New England that probably cost Chudzinski his job.

Campbell had three games with ratings of under 70, while Weeden had four such games.  As a point of comparison, Hoyer has had three games all year with a rating under 70, two of those coming in the last two weeks.

Hoyer did have a rating of under 70 in the first of his two starts last season, that being in the win over the Vikings in which he threw three interceptions.

This means last year, Browns’ quarterbacks had eight games, half the schedule, in which they received poor quarterbacking play.

Based on Hoyer’s performance this season, you would have to think Cleveland would have won two more games (23-10 loss to Miami, 14-6 loss to Baltimore, 24-13 loss to the Jets?) if their quarterbacks had done even a decent job in those contests.

If that occurred, the Browns would have finished 6-10 and the improvement from the season before perhaps keeps Chudzinski is in the job, and Pettine planning how to stop the Browns as Buffalo’s defensive coordinator.

On the other hand, two of those losses came before Hoyer took over as the starter, so maybe if Chud would have picked the more competent guy in the first place, the season would have started differently.

Nevertheless, Hoyer’s injury against the team Pettine was coaching sent the Browns into a death spiral, as they won just one more game the balance of the year.

If Brian Hoyer doesn’t get hurt, Mike Pettine may not have his current gig, and he’s right now a contender for AFC Coach of the Year.

It’s funny how things have turned out.

JD

In Sports, Consistency is a Talent Worth Having

Last week, we were involved in a debate on Twitter about the merits of Indians’ utility man Zach Walters, as we compared him (as we have many times before) to former Tribesman Russell Branyan.

We were quizzed that it sounded like that comparison was a bad thing, which we meant it to be.  Our opinion is that wild, streaky hitters like Branyan and Walters aren’t effective major league players.

Our contention is that consistency is a tool just like hitting with power, speed, and defensive ability.

Walters came to the Tribe at the trade deadline from the Nationals for Asdrubal Cabrera, and did whack some home runs immediately after being called up, hitting six dingers in his first 48 at bats.  The downside is he only had four other hits, leading to a .208 batting average and mixing in just three walks.

A true all or nothing hitter.

From August 27th to the last game of the season, when Walters went 2 for 4 with a home run, the switch-hitter went 3 for 36 with 16 punch outs and just two walks.  Do you think Terry Francona was anxious to put him in the lineup?

To be fair to Walters, it is a relatively small sample size and he is just 25 years old and could (and really needs to) change his approach at the plate.

Let’s go back to 2013 for a larger sample, using former Indian Mark Reynolds as the example.

Reynolds famously started on fire in April, hitting .301 with 8 HR and 22 RBI helping get the Tribe off to a good start.

However, in May, June, and July combined, Reynolds went 44 for 243, a .181 batting average, with 7 homers and 25 RBI.  Francona started easing him out of the lineup and when it was all said and done, the slugger wanted out and the Tribe was happy to oblige.

We understand that no one is perfectly consistent.  A .300 hitter doesn’t hit for that average every month, and neither does a .250 hitter.  However, from a manager or coaches’ standpoint, those guys are gold because for the most part, you know what you will get.

That’s why guys like Branyan and perhaps Walters get placed into reserve roles.  In the NBA, players with up and down performances are bench guys.  If they come in and are hot, the coach can ride them.  If they aren’t, they can be taken out and not be a part of the game going forward.

In Walters’ case, he is still young and many times it takes players without a lot of experience time to develop a consistent level.  When Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome first came to the Indians, they had severe ups and downs too, and Mike Hargrove had to manage that.  Heck, Thome was basically a platoon player in 1994 and 1995.

That’s something the front office has to keep an eye on with Jason Kipnis.  Kipnis made his season in ’13 with a tremendous June in which he hit close to .400 and he had a solid September as well.  The rest of the season?  He was below .250.  Just something to watch in 2015.

Remember how frustrated fans got with Lonnie Chisenhall last season?

That’s why players like Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes are even more valuable than you think.  They were consistent all year-long and have been for a while.

Gomes strikes out a lot, but more often than not, the guys who strike out at a high rate are players more prone to peaks and valleys.

Consistency equals dependability.  And that’s part of a player’s profile, one that shouldn’t be overlooked.

MW