Author: MW

Attendance Was Up For Guardians, Now How About Payroll?

The Bally Sports situation is troubling for many baseball teams, we understand that. Losing the rights fee for organizations is definitely a loss of revenue.

However, let’s not forget that these ballclubs will be paid by some entity to televise their games in 2024. It may not be as much as Bally’s was paying, but there will be income coming in.

We also need to remember that nobody uses this time of news better than mid to small market Major League Baseball owners. We already have heard a few teams telling their fans they have to cut payroll due to this situation.

Recently, Guardians’ president Chris Antonetti said the organization let right-handed starting pitcher Cal Quantrill go because what he figured to get in arbitration didn’t fit in with the teams’ payroll structure.

To us, if you can’t spend $6 million on a serviceable starting pitcher, it raises an eyebrow. After all, Cleveland already had the second lowest payroll in the big leagues last season, ahead of only Oakland. (according to Baseballreference.com)

It’s also a good time to remind you that the Guardians had the fourth biggest gain in attendance in ’23, behind Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. We know some folks will argue they were low-cost tickets that caused the spike, but we would argue the main thing is getting people in the park, remember, no team is selling concessions at cost.

This organization have always implied they couldn’t spend money on players because of dwindling attendance figures. So, attendance went up last year, and now it is the possibility of losing the television deal that won’t allow the Guardians to spend money on players.

We have always said we understand the Guardians can’t have a $200 million payroll, they certainly don’t generate the same type of revenue that teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Phillies can.

However, last season they outdrew Kansas City, who had a payroll $18 million higher than the Guards. Miami spent $114 million on players, and Cleveland outdrew them by 650,000 people.

The Brewers and Twins are similar market sizes, and both teams’ salaries for players were almost $140 million. By the way, Minnesota is saying they will have to cut payroll because of the local broadcast situation.

Now, one of the reasons Cleveland’s salaries are low is because they are the youngest team in the majors, so many of their players are on minimum contracts because they haven’t reached arbitration yet.

Don’t they have room to add some veterans who can help the team?

So, local television deal or not, the Guardians need to increase the amount they are spending on players for the 2024 season.

Let’s face it, coming off a 92 win season and a division title in 2023, last season was a disappointment. They have a new manager in Steven Vogt and should want to get him all the help he needs.

And you can’t forget the elephant in the room: 1948. The fans came out last season, now the front office should hold up their end of the bargain.

Nothing major, but how about not being in the bottom five in the league in payroll. We don’t think that’s too much to ask.

Our Likes And Dislikes So Far For The Cavs

After a bit of a slow start, the Cleveland Cavaliers have reeled off four victories in their last five games and in five of the last seven. They have now played 15 games and we feel that’s enough contests to see some trends, both good and bad.

First, the good.

Winning Despite Injuries. As we said, we are only 15 games into the 2023-24 season and only three Cavaliers have played every game: Evan Mobley, Max Strus, and Georges Niang. Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, and Jarrett Allen each missed five games, and Caris LeVert and missed three.

Those guys are four of the top six players on the roster, and the Cavs are 8-7 anyway. That is absolutely a good thing.

Max Strus. We weren’t as enthused as many about the signing of Strus because of his size and his defense, but he’s provided another playmaker, which wasn’t thought to be a big part of his game.

He is averaging a career high 3.9 assists per contest, almost two more than his previous season high. The same for his rebounding, where he is at 5.6 per game, his career high set last year was 3.2. Add in 37.7% shooting from three-point land, and he’s been better than expected so far.

The Rookie. We know many people thought the Cavs got a steal in second round pick Emoni Bates, but we thought he was very raw. The real story so far is undrafted free agent Craig Porter Jr.

Because of injuries, Porter has played in 10 games, averaging 8.0 points and 2.9 assists per night. He’s fearless driving to the basket and looks like he can be a contributor this season. It will be interesting to see how defenses approach him as he gets more playing time.

Now, the not so good

Turnovers. This isn’t a team wide problem; the wine and gold are 17th in the league in this department. It has been an issue for Darius Garland though. Garland cut down last year going from 3.6 per contest in his third year to 2.9 last season.

This year, he’s up to 4.5 compared to six assists, also down from 8.6 and 7.8 in the previous two seasons. He penetrates and is either stripped by a defender or throws a difficult pass to connect on far too often. A possession without a shot attempt is lost opportunity to score.

Make the basic play, and not the one that gets you on highlight reels.

Criticism of Mobley. We know everyone wants the third-year pro to develop into Kevin Garnett in his prime, but really, Mobley isn’t going to score more unless he gets more shots, and that is a challenge with two scoring guards in Mitchell and Garland.

The big man from USC has increased his shooting percentage (55.4% to 56.7%), rebounding (9.0 to 10.5), assists (2.8 to 3.1), and blocks (1.5 to 1.6) from a year ago.

So, he can’t shoot threes. Big deal, at least he knows he’s not a good three-point shooter hoisting them anyway. He’s only 22 and still getting better. Maybe get him more touches.

Free Agent Disappointments. After the big splashes of signing Strus and Niang, who is slowly hitting his shooting stride, Koby Altman signed two players we thought could help in Ty Jerome and Damian Jones.

The duo has combined to play 54 minutes to date. Jerome has had a severe ankle sprain, which is unfortunate, but on the other hand, the most games he’s appeared in a season is 48. Hopefully, he can contribute soon.

Jones has appeared in just nine games, making all three of his shots and grabbing seven rebounds. Obviously, J. B. Bickerstaff has no confidence in him, because the Cavs could use another serviceable big man in the rotation.

The biggest issue for the Cavaliers has been the injuries. That said, it’s more important to have everyone healthy in April and May.

Browns Stack Another Win With Another Gritty Performance

Before the Browns started this rugged pair of games, media people and fans were saying they were hoping for a split of the contests with the Ravens and Steelers. At the time, we felt that was the difference between the fan bases between Cleveland and Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Those folks would not accept a split, they would want to take both games.

Fortunately, the players and coaching staff don’t think like the fans because they expected two victories and they got them, winning Sunday on the last second field goal by Dustin Hopkins to beat the Steelers, 13-10, and raise the Browns’ record to 7-3.

The Browns believe they can win every game they play, mostly because of their incredible defense, which outside of Jaylen Warren’s 74 yard run (we know, Butch Davis math), held Pittsburgh to 175 yards, 3 of 14 on third down conversions, and sacked Kenny Pickett three times.

And after a rough second half where Cleveland couldn’t move the football, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson came alive with 1:18 remaining in the game, completing four of five throws to get the Browns into field goal range.

Overall, the rook went 24 of 43 for 165 yards, and he threw that much only because Cleveland’s vaunted running game was stymied after halftime. The Browns were held under 100 yards on the ground for only the third time this season, getting just 96 on 29 attempts.

Once again, the defense was dominant, forcing nine punts, and getting the ball back for DTR after Cleveland had to punt it away themselves with under two minutes to go.

They should have recorded safeties on Pittsburgh’s first two offensive plays, but because of the league officials’ reticence in calling the two point defensive score, neither were called. It was also the fourth game this season, Cleveland allowed less than 100 net yards passing.

In today’s NFL, that’s incredible.

It was the Browns’ fourth win by three points or less this season, but those wins are against San Francisco (7-3), Baltimore (7-3), Pittsburgh (6-4) and Indianapolis (5-5). They also have three victories by more than 20 points this season, the same as the Ravens and 49ers.

As a comparison, Kansas City has one, Miami has two, and Philadelphia, with the league’s best record, has none. So, it is not as though Cleveland is doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Apparently, the Browns will be signing veteran Joe Flacco as insurance for the rest of the season, but unless Thompson-Robinson starts to turn the ball over, our guess is he’s the starter going forward. Flacco is just there to provide professional quarterback play should something happen to DTR.

Kevin Stefanski wanted his rookie to take care of the football and for the most part, he did just that, and he put together a drive at the end to get the team in position for a game-winning field goal.

Why wouldn’t you keep him in there?

We have been a fan of the Browns for a long time, but this team has renewed our love for the team. This team plays with heart, they are physical, and they don’t make excuses. They treat each game as its own entity and views it as an opportunity to go 1-0 as their coach says.

After watching the opening win against Cincinnati and the way the defense played, we felt this team would be in every game.

It’s right there for the 2023 Cleveland Browns. They will look to go 1-0 next week at Denver.

Moving Quantrill Is Odd, Getting Barlow Is Good

Former Guardians’ manager Terry Francona, and yes, it’s weird to write that, used to say that when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more. Apparently, Cleveland is no subscribing to that adage with one of their first off-season moves.

In order to add rookies Daniel Espino and Cade Smith to the 40-man roster, the Guardians designated Cal Quantrill for assignment.

Quantrill will likely never be in the conversation for a Cy Young Award, but he is a reliable starting pitcher.

The Guards received minor league catcher Kody Huff from Colorado, he played in A ball last season. Team president Chris Antonetti said the Guardians didn’t think Quantrill was worth the likely $6 million he would receive in arbitration, and in a vacuum, he’s probably right.

However, sometimes there is hidden value. With Shane Bieber (who may be traded) and Triston McKenzie coming off injuries, if they aren’t ready, the starting rotation right now looks like Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, and a mixture of Hunter Gaddis, rookie Joey Cantillo, Xzavion Curry, and perhaps Cody Morris.

That would be three second-year starters, who have no proven track record in the bigs, and a bunch of arms without a track record in the majors.

Wouldn’t Quantrill, a proven big-league starter have some value to Cleveland? He has made 94 big league starts, pitching to a 4.06 ERA in those outings.

If you were a contending club, or one who says they are, you would want pitchers who you know can give you a decent outing. And as much as we like Bibee, Williams, and Allen, we don’t know if they will pitch as well in 2024.

So, if we were Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, we’d be looking for an established starting pitcher. Our philosophy as a GM would be to guard against things as best you can if things go wrong. With the injuries to Bieber and McKenzie, and depending on second-year players, we think a lot could go wrong.

Cleveland did make another trade on Friday, getting reliever Scott Barlow from San Diego for Enyel De Los Santos.

De Los Santos had two solid years here, pitching in 120 games with a 3.18 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 119 innings, but seemed more comfortable in a sixth or seventh inning role. His ERA is almost a run higher in the 8th than in the 7th in his career.

Barlow has closing experience, saving 53 games with the Royals from 2021 to 2023, including 13 last year before being dealt to the Padres. He’s also a strikeout pitcher, fanning 393 hitters in 332 innings for his career.

He should give Emmanuel Clase some relief at times, because he seemed to be the only reliable alternative the team had in ’23.

And he would also seem to move Trevor Stephan, who struggled mightily in the second half last year into more of a 7th inning role.

The Guardians also signed Ramon Laureano to a one-year deal, after he hit .243/.342/.382/724 after being released by Oakland. He also has a career 791 OPS vs. lefties since coming to the major leagues.

They paid Laureano a reported $5.1 million next year, and that makes us wonder about Myles Straw’s future. Laureano can play CF and RF, and is a good defensive outfielder. It’s hard to see Cleveland paying Straw $4.9 million (and it escalates in ’25 and ’26) and Laureano.

Just something to keep an eye on and the hot stove season moves on.

No Watson, But Browns Will Need To Find A Way

Well. it didn’t take long for the euphoria of a road win over Baltimore to be drowned out. Yesterday, the Browns announced that Deshaun Watson has a fracture in his shoulder and will miss the rest of the regular season.

Suddenly the Browns, sitting with the third best record in the AFC at 6-3 are unstable at the most important position on the field. Watson was coming off an excellent second half against the Ravens, completing all 14 of his passes and leading the team back from a 31-17 deficit in the fourth quarter.

It’s a tough blow for the Browns, but it will be interesting to see how the organization will go from here.

We understand that fans will be downhearted and thinking “woe is us”, but GM Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski will not be doing that. They will be figuring out how to win without their starting quarterback going forward.

We didn’t think Stefanski was thrilled with P.J. Walker’s play after the Seattle game because of all the turnovers, so apparently rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get the nod vs. Pittsburgh.

We are sure the offense will also play it close to the vest in an effort to limit turnover opportunities and that’s fine. We saw in exhibition games that the rookie’s legs can be a weapon.

However, you would think Berry will be looking over what QBs are available now that the trading deadline has passed. The best candidates seem to be Joe Flacco, Colt McCoy or Nick Foles.

If you sign a veteran, it will take him some time to ramp up and learn the offense, so it would seem it’s DTR for the next few games, unless he plays good enough to win games.

Among the veteran free agents, Flacco is 38-years-old and played in five games with the Jets last season, famously guiding New York to a comeback win over Cleveland. He completed 57.6% of his passes with five touchdowns and three interceptions. He also brings the mobility of a flagpole.

McCoy is 37 and played in four games with Arizona last year, completing 68.2% of his throws with a TD and three picks. It would seem he could handle a short passing offense right now.

Foles is the youngest at 34, and he played in just three games with the Colts last season, completing 59.5% of his throws with no touchdowns and four throws to the opposition. Since leaving Philadelphia after the 2018 season, he’s been pretty mediocre.

Before the season started, we had the opinion the success of the Browns hinged on the play of Watson. If he was back to his Houston form, the Browns would be a very good football team in 2023. And if not, Cleveland made a big mistake.

Because the defense has played this well in ’23, we have changed our opinion. This team can still get to the playoffs without Watson this season. If Stefanski can coax decent quarterback play out of whoever starts, we still believe the post-season is in play.

The players and coaching staff are not going to give up on the season. Both groups understand how talented this football team is. We said earlier in the week that the Browns were a power running team and that hasn’t changed with Watson’s injury.

The timing of this, coming off a big win, does suck though. No disputing that.

Make No Mistake, The Browns Are One Tough Football Team

The Cleveland Browns showed unbelievable toughness and patience in a huge road win at Baltimore Sunday, defeating the Ravens 33-31 to move to 6-3 on the season.

The toughness was evident in running for 178 yards against the league’s second-best defense. Led by Jerome Ford’s 107 yards on 17 carries, the running backs and offensive line set a tone in the trenches, and it was a huge factor in the game.

The patience is from the coaching staff. Cleveland trailed 14-0, 17-3, 24-9, and 31-17 in this game, and Kevin Stefanski stuck with the game plan, continuing to mix the run and the pass, and it paid off with a win.

We think Stefanski in the past would have gone pass happy being down two touchdowns, even in the first half, but perhaps with his experience, he has learned it is a long game. Maybe that sort of thing happens when you keep a head coach for more than two years.

For many years, we have been envious of Pittsburgh and Baltimore and the winning culture developed by both teams over time. Well, it looks like the Browns are starting to develop a culture, a style of play.

Many fans and media rhapsodized about Deshaun Watson directing a wide-open offense, with five receivers spread out, and the team throwing the ball all over the field. But that’s not what this team is about.

The 2023 Browns are a physical power running team even without Nick Chubb. Cleveland has run for 150 or more yards in six of the nine games this season, while only one opponent (Indianapolis) has been over that mark.

It’s an old football adage that you can’t win in the NFL unless you can run the ball and stop the run. Right now, the Browns are doing both pretty well.

In the passing game, Cleveland is getting the ball to their playmakers. Amari Cooper had another fine game with six catches for 98 yards, and TE David Njoku shook off an early drop to grab six passes for 58 yards, including a play on the final drive where he carried a Baltimore defender for at least 10 yards.

Defensively, it was another solid performance by the #1 unit in the league statistically. The scoreboard shows Cleveland allowed 31 points, but seven came off the pick six on the game’s second play, and another touchdown came after James Proche fumbled a punt on the Browns’ 11 yard line.

And in that latter situation, the Ravens were stopped twice only to see a couple of “ticky tack” calls give them more opportunities. It was like an 11 play drive to get those 11 yards.

Both teams had a defensive score, as Greg Newsome took his first NFL interception to the house, and Jim Schwartz’ unit held the Ravens to 306 yards and sacked the elusive Lamar Jackson three times.

And of course, they had a key stop in the fourth quarter to get the ball back for the game winning drive.

It’s the second time this season the Browns have defeated “the best team in the league”, having defeated the 49ers earlier, and the Ravens were getting that label before this week.

Next Sunday is another opportunity to avenge a defeat with Pittsburgh coming to town. A look at the conference standings shows only Kansas City with less losses than the Browns.

This is tough football team, northeast Ohio, just like you always wanted. And there is no reason to think the Browns won’t be in the thick of the playoff chase as the calendar turns to December.

Helping Mobley And Questioning The Cavs’ Pace

It’s still early in the NBA season for sure. Common wisdom says the season doesn’t really begin until the Christmas Day games are played. We aren’t worried about the Cleveland Cavaliers at this point, but we do wonder about some things.

As pretty much every coach does, J.B. Bickerstaff said he wanted the Cavs to play with more pace this season. They were last in that category a year ago and they have moved up to 11th in 2023-24.

However, that increased pace has come with a price. The wine and gold led the NBA in defensive efficiency last season and have dropped to 11th this season. To be fair, the Cavaliers have played the league’s best offense in Indiana twice and have also played high octane Oklahoma City twice.

We understand Koby Altman wanted to improve the three point shooting this season, signing Max Strus and Georges Niang. However, can the Cavs play a style that spreads the floor while still playing their defensive anchors, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Many teams have shifted to an offense with one man inside and the other four players spread out around the perimeter. With Allen and Mobley, the Cavs cannot do that.

That’s okay. It’s not necessary to play like everyone else. There are many ways to win in the NBA.

The key in our opinion is Mobley. We have heard fans and media alike complain the third-year player has not taken “the leap”. To date, he is averaging 16.1 points per game, down a bit from the 16.2 a year ago. His rebounding, assists, and blocks are all up.

Our response when we are asked about the big man is usually what are the Cavs doing to help him put up better numbers. We feel a more productive Mobley makes the wine and gold a better team.

Bickerstaff and his staff have to make it a point to get Mobley involved in the offense more, and the easiest way to do that is to get him the ball at the high post, where with his height and court vision, he can be effective. Think about him as sort of a Nikola Jokic type, without the dribbling up the court.

From there, he could play the high/low game that has been effective with Jarrett Allen on the blocks, attack the basket, or if a double team comes, he can find the open man. The underrated part of Mobley’s game is his passing in our opinion.

What is needed though is some sacrifice from Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell to get Mobley some touches at the elbow. For Mitchell, he can pass the ball and then get it back off a cut.

That would require more of a half court approach, and that would mean slowing the pace a bit, which is turn probably helps the defense. Again, it’s early and with the injuries that cost Allen and Garland time in the season’s first two weeks, perhaps Cleveland just needs to find a rhythm.

On the other hand, maybe it’s just a matter of getting done with this trip and having a stretch of seven of eight games at home. However, it does appear quickening the pace has hurt the Cavs’ defense.

It’s a season of adjustments, and maybe Bickerstaff has to pull back on the throttle a bit to find the team’s comfort zone.

On The Guards’ New Skipper

The Cleveland Guardians picked the successor to Terry Francona earlier this week when they tabbed Steven Vogt to be the new skipper of the Guards.

Is it a good move? We have no idea. Vogt just retired as a player after the 2022 season and spent last year as Seattle’s bullpen coach. He just turned 39 years old earlier this week. He made two all-star teams as a player.

That’s what we know about Vogt. We aren’t going to make any claims as to how he will do as a manager because he’s never done it before. And that doesn’t mean he will not be good at the job; it simply means he has no track record.

The front office did their due diligence reportedly speaking to Francona and other experienced skippers about what they feel was the best attributes to having success as a manager. They felt Vogt had those qualities and it is a good thing that he can still recall what it was like to be a player.

It reminds you what things you can ask a player to do.

Apparently, Sandy Alomar Jr. will remain on the coaching staff and his experience should be invaluable to Vogt as he navigates his way through a 162 game regular season. And Carl Willis, the Guardians’ long time and very successful pitching coach will also remain on the staff.

Vogt couldn’t hope for two better guys to be able to bounce ideas off, and hopefully, he listens to them as well in terms of communication from a manager’s standpoint, rather than that as a veteran leader.

He should develop a relationship with Jose Ramirez as soon as possible. Ramirez is the Guardians’ de facto captain and bonding with him and getting his support will go a long way into having the rest of the roster buying in.

Francona liked having veteran leadership in the locker room. In his first year in Cleveland, he had Jason Giambi in that role. Because Ramirez has been here awhile, an older player isn’t needed for that purpose, but Vogt and Ramirez need to be a team.

We would like to see the new pilot and the organization be a little more flexible about starting the season with rookies in everyday spots. Francona seemed to be a little more concerned with cold weather affecting the performance of rookies, but we would like to see them as opposed to mediocre veterans with track records.

It is a bold choice for sure and for that we commend the front office.

Speaking of the front office, they already improved the catching situation by claiming Christian Bethancourt on waivers from Tampa Bay. He belted 11 homers last season (635 OPS) and has a rocket for an arm, he pitched for a bit in the minors early in his career.

He doesn’t have a great strikeout/walk ratio, but is certainly better than Cam Gallagher, who put together one of the worst offensive seasons we have seen in a long time.

We don’t understand the other waiver pick up, 1B/OF Alfonso Rivas, who slashed .303/.422/725 with Pittsburgh and San Diego last season. He’s not an on base guy and doesn’t have a lot of pop either. He is having a good winter league season and had good numbers in AAA last season.

Just seems like a AAAA player right now. However, he may not be on the 40-man roster by the time spring training begins.

And that spring training will be guided by a new manager for the first time since 2013. Maybe Vogt can be the first World Series winning manager for Cleveland since 1948.

Workmanlike Win, Big Week Ahead For Browns

Workmanlike. Professional. Those are the words we are using to describe the Browns domination of the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Cleveland won 27-0 and moved to 5-3 on the season.

The Cardinals came into the game with a 1-7 record and were starting a rookie, Clayton Tune at quarterback. So, the Browns did what should have been expected by every fan going into the contest. They totally controlled the game.

Still, Arizona is in the NFL but the Cleveland defense held them to 58 yards of total offense and sacked Tune seven times. We didn’t get excited about the performance, but it was still satisfying, if that makes sense.

We wanted Deshaun Watson to play in this game in order to get the rust off before a couple of big divisional games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and he did just that, completing 19 of 30 throws for 219 yards and a couple of touchdowns.

He also ran three times for 22 yards, but there were a couple of plays early when he could have run and instead dumped short passes to Jerome Ford. We thought that was good thinking on his part and something the coaches reminded him of before the game.

However, even with Watson, Kevin Stefanski ran the ball a lot, 40 times to be exact, although that includes the three carries by Watson. Certainly, having Watson available is much better than playing P.J. Walker, but we couldn’t help thinking the Browns are a power run team, even though Nick Chubb isn’t playing.

Cleveland has run for 150 yards or more in five of their eight games and has only been below 100 yards twice, the first two games after Chubb was injured.

Stefanski is still using a lot of not only two or three tight end sets, but he is using offensive lineman Nick Harris at fullback to add another blocker to help the running game. Right now, that’s the Browns’ offensive identity.

Also, this was the first game all year where the brown and orange did not turn the ball over. It was only the second time they won the turnover battle (the Colts’ game was the other) and they are 2-0 in those contests.

That trend will need to continue in the next two games against the Ravens and Steelers. Baltimore allows just 262.5 yards per game defensively, second to Cleveland’s 234.8. It shapes up as a rugged defensive battle.

Remember the Browns started Dorian Thompson-Robinson the first time these two teams met, and Cleveland turned it over three times, gaining just 166 yards for the game. And the 131 yards rushing Baltimore gained was exceeded only by Indianapolis’ 168 in the 39-38 win on the road.

Jim Schwartz knows Baltimore will want to establish the run, as the Ravens are the #1 running team in the NFL and making the job more complicated is having to keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket.

And it would also be nice if TE Mark Andrews was kept in check, he has killed the Cleveland defense so many times in his career, it borders on ridiculousness.

There are now only three teams in the AFC and five overall with less losses than the Browns are we are now into November. The next two weeks should serve as a measuring stick as to where this team, and both its offense and defense are as the holiday season commences.

We are still confident this is a playoff team. Here’s hoping next Sunday doesn’t shake that feeling.

Reviewing Cleveland’s Prospects From Five Years Ago

We believe that the basis for having a good organization in major league baseball is to have a very good player development program. Especially if you are a smaller market team.

Although we think every major league team could spend tons of money on players (after all, they are all millionaires or billionaires), many teams have a philosophy of not spending, a lot of them because the bang isn’t worth the buck.

For every Corey Seager or Marcus Semien from the newly crowned world champion Texas Rangers that works out, you have a Javier Baez or Jason Heyward.

However, in building a farm system, fans need to understand that the payoff rate for prospects is also not good.

We like to do this every winter, but let’s take a look at the Guardians’ farm system from 2018, five years ago. A system that ranked in the middle of the pack among major league teams, at #15.

Who has worked out, who hasn’t. Here is the list from Baseball America:

1). Francisco Mejia
2). Triston McKenzie
3). Bobby Bradley
4). Nolan Jones
5). Shane Bieber
6). Yu Chang
7). Willi Castro
8). Greg Allen
9). George Valera
10). Will Benson

In our books, there is one all-star type player from this list, and that’s Bieber, who won a Cy Young Award in the COVID shortened season of 2020. He’s 60-32 lifetime, made two all star appearances and thrown 200 innings twice. He has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons.

Although we think McKenzie is very good if he can stay healthy, and he was good in the second half of 2021 and in ’22 (11-11, 2.96 ERA), right now, there is concern over his elbow. But, if he can pitch, he’s a very good starting pitcher.

Mejia was the most highly regarded prospect, but we don’t think the organization felt he could be a full time catcher and traded him to San Diego for Brad Hand. In over 1000 big league at bats, he has a 678 OPS (.239/.284/.394). He never reached what was projected for him.

The book is still out on Jones and Benson, both of whom had very good seasons after being traded by Cleveland after the ’22 season. Jones had a 931 OPS for Colorado, but we worry about a strikeout rate that is over 30% in his time in the big leagues.

Benson had an 863 OPS with Cincinnati, but he fanned in 31.3% of his at bats. High strikeout rates don’t bode well for long term success in the majors.

Bradley, Chang, and Allen never found extended success in the majors, and although the latter two played in the bigs last season, neither are on 40 man rosters heading into the winter.

Castro was traded to Detroit, but had his best year with the Twins this season as kind of a super-utility player, playing six positions, and had a 750 OPS with 33 stolen bases.

What was funny to us was that we’ve been talking about Valera for so long. He had an 816 OPS between AA/AAA in 2022, but fell to 718 at Columbus last season, fighting a lot of injuries. He has pop and patience, but the batting average in his minor league career is just .242, but he gets on base 36.3% of the time.

So, out of the top ten, the successes are Bieber, McKenzie, Jones, Benson, and Castro, although the latter three should be re-evaluated at this time next year.

Valera is still a prospect, probably still top ten in the Cleveland system. The other four simply didn’t pan out.

Keep that in mind when you look at the list that will come out this winter.