The Continued Struggles Of The Guardians’ Starters

Last night was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Cleveland Guardians in terms of starting pitching. Tanner Bibee gave Steven Vogt six scoreless innings, great effectiveness and some decent length.

We know the rotation has been the weakness of the 2024 Guardians thus far. It is the only position on the squad where Cleveland ranks last in the American League in WAR (wins above replacement).

The last pitcher who went six frames in a game was Logan Allen on June 7th vs. Miami. Previous to Allen, it was Bibee, who went 6.1 innings on May 31st.

So, in the month of June, the Guardians have had exactly two outings where the starting pitcher completed six innings. Now, we understand the game has changed recently, but having your bullpen have to cover more than 12 outs on a nightly basis is not something usually equated with success throughout a six month season.

There were a few outings where Vogt yanked his starter in the sixth and perhaps, he didn’t have to. The starter could have got the last out of the inning.

We get it. When your bullpen has been as great as the Guardians’ have this season, it is tempting to get them in the game and have a guy like Sam Hentges, Tim Herrin, or Cade Smith overmatch the next hitter to end the inning.

We know the front office is aware of the problem, and we are also it is difficult to make a deal for a starter at this point. We also know there are a lot of teams looking for starting pitching, so it won’t be easy for Cleveland to pull off a deal.

Everyone is waiting for Gavin Williams to be back, but in his last outing in AAA, he threw 53 pitches, making over 30 in the second inning where he only recorded two outs before being removed.

So, it appears it will be a while before he can join the rotation.

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco and Triston McKenzie have to be a concern. Carrasco missed a couple of starts with a spasm in his neck, and since his return, his longest outing was five innings last Saturday, and he only went five because the Guards were trailing 5-0 and Vogt didn’t want to overexpose his relief corps.

He’s made just two starts where he went at least six innings, one against the Angels and the other vs. the White Sox. He has a 5.80 ERA for the year, and last year, it was 6.80 for the Mets.

McKenzie has had issues with the two things pitchers cannot do and still be effective, and that is walk people and give up home runs. When we were young, we used to hear about guys who gave up the long ball, but since they didn’t walk people, most of the dingers were solo shots.

McKenzie leads the AL in walks and is second in the Junior Circuit in giving up homers with 15. Thankfully, he doesn’t give up a lot of hits besides the home runs.

Perhaps Pedro Avila should get a shot. He started in San Diego last year and has been okay so far for the Guardians (2.60 ERA, 31 K’s in 26.2 innings). Or why not see what Connor Gillispie can do?

He has a 4.55 ERA at AAA, allowing 62 hits in 63.1 innings with 64 strikeouts. His last few outings have been much better than that. Maybe he can get into or complete six innings of a Major League game?

McKenzie and Carrasco’s struggles put more pressure on Bibee, Allen, and Ben Lively to pitch deeper into games.

The Guardians have a great thing going, sitting at 45-26 on the season. That doesn’t mean they are complacent. However, the more that duo struggles, the more of a burden they put on the relievers.

Some Changes Looming For Guards After a .500 Trip?

The Cleveland Guardians are coming off a solid trip. It seems like their early season success have some fans panicking when they lose a series, but they came off the eight game sojourn to three cities at .500, and that is just fine.

By the way, a quick look at the schedule shows Cleveland will play 40 of their last 60 games after the All-Star break at home. That’s a lot.

On a break-even trip, a couple of warts have shown up. The Guards are struggling a bit vs. left-handed pitching, partially due to David Fry returning to normal human being status (he’s “down” to a .356 batting average against them) and lately, Steven Vogt has taken to playing both Gabriel Arias and Austin Hedges against them, and that’s leaving the lineup two hitters short.

We may also be seeing the beginning of the end as a starting pitcher for veteran Carlos Carrasco. Since returning from his neck spasms, he has made three starts, totaling 13.2 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 17 hits.

We understand there aren’t many alternatives for the organization until Gavin Williams is ready to go (he threw just 53 pitches in his last rehab start), but we don’t know how you can give Carrasco another start. Perhaps you swap roles with Pedro Avila, who did throw 43 pitches in an outing on June 8th.

Or try Xzavion Curry again, although he has an ERA over 7.00 at AAA. There is no question starting pitching is the Guardians’ biggest need, and it’s a need that will be very difficult to correct. But sending Carrasco out for another start seems to be a wish on the organization’s part.

We also wonder if Kyle Manzardo might get sent back to Columbus to get every day at bats. Daniel Schneemann has been a hitting machine since getting called up, collecting nine hits in 24 at bats, including four extra base hits, and has walked five times.

Manzardo hasn’t been bad but has gone 3 for 20 over the last two weeks, since Schneemann has usurped some of his at bats. This is not writing Manzardo off. Plenty of players get called up and sent down once or even twice before sticking at the big-league level.

However, clearly playing once or twice a week isn’t helping the rookie find a rhythm at the plate.

If Manzardo goes back to the minors, it would mean Johnathan Rodriguez would likely stay as a right-handed outfield bat. He could platoon with Will Brennan in RF or be the DH vs. lefties, where Gabriel Arias has been recently.

Here’s something to keep an eye on: Juan Brito has started to play 1B at Columbus, increasing his versatility. Brito is 22 for 64 vs. lefties (.344 average, 1018 OPS) with 3 HR and 10 walks.

Usually, a position charge means the front office is trying to see if a player can fit on the big-league roster. Overall, Brito, a switch-hitter (adding more versatility) is hitting .249 with an 801 OPS after a slow start.

He also fits in with his strikeout to walk ratio for the season, which is 49 Ks and 49 BBs.

The Guardians are sitting at 44-25, but the organization isn’t going to be complacent with this team. Just wondering if some roster tweaks are coming.

Cavs Running It Back? Bad Idea

With the NBA Finals soon to be over, the NBA crazy time will start very quickly. The draft will occur at the end of the month, followed by the free agency period where trades will occur.

In his post-season press conference, Cavs’ president of basketball operations Koby Altman made comments alluding to the wine and gold’s “Core 4”, and his desire to keep them together.

After all, his supporters will say, the Cavaliers have made progress in each of the last three seasons, going from making the “play-in” tournament and losing to getting into a seven game series to winning a first-round match up.

While all that is true, it can also be true to realize that might be the ceiling for this group. And really, isn’t that what Altman is paid to determine.

The first thing for Altman to decide is who will be the new head coach. It seems like it is down to three candidates: James Borrego, Kenny Atkinson, and Chris Quinn. We would have no issue with either of them.

Our only issue with Quinn would be he is the first lieutenant to Erik Spoelstra, the league’s best coach. Sometimes, these guys try to be their mentor, and since they aren’t that guy, it doesn’t work.

The people who think staying the course with the Cavs led by Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, usually are thinking about it from (surprise!) the offensive end of the floor. However, we say it all the time, basketball isn’t just about scoring points.

Our feeling continues to be Cleveland cannot continue with the small backcourt because Mitchell and Garland do not complement each other, but also because it is not effective from a defensive standpoint. So many contending teams have size at the guard position, and the Cavaliers don’t.

That puts them at a disadvantage.

The other thing that bothers us is the constant talk of having to move Jarrett Allen. We get it, “you can’t win with two non-shooting bigs”, that’s the argument, correct? But what we find difficult to fathom is how you get better by trading your second-best player, and that’s what Allen was this past season.

He averaged 16.5 points and 10.5 boards per night, shooting 63.4% from the floor. If you could trade Allen for a player who has a chance at being your best player, then yes, you can trade him. We doubt that would be the case.

And yesterday, it was reported that Mitchell doesn’t want Allen moved, and that will have weight within the organization.

As for Mobley’s “dominant” series vs. Boston in the second round, need we remind everyone he didn’t do this against Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, or even Kristaps Porzingis, he did it against 37-year-old Al Horford, a solid pro, but not a player who should be giving a player like Mobley fits.

Also, trading Allen (or Mobley for that matter) would be removing one of the few players with size on the roster. We understand a big man would come back in any deal, but that player likely wouldn’t be as skilled.

And Cleveland needs to add size, not get smaller. That’s for sure.

If Altman can add a slew of wings in the 6’7″ to 6’9″ range and add another big man to back up Allen and Mobley without giving up one of his core players, then great. We just don’t think that’s possible.

Can Kwan Do Something That Hasn’t Happened in 70 Years?

We understand that batting average as a statistic has been devalued in today’s game and that on base percentage is more meaningful, after all baseball is about getting on base (thus avoiding outs) and moving once you are on, which slugging percentage measures.

However, back in the day, when we were growing up, it was a big deal, the man who led their respective league in average was considered the “batting champ”, and it is still considered part of the traditional “triple crown”, a player who leads the league in average, home runs, and runs batted in.

We bring this up because in our lifetime, Cleveland has never had a batting champion. The last Indian/Guardian to lead the American League in average was Bobby Avila, and that occurred way back in 1954.

No, we aren’t that old!

A few players have come close. In the 1994 strike season, Paul O’Neill of the Yankees was awarded the batting title with a .359 average. Albert Belle was second at .357 and Kenny Lofton was fourth at .349.

Belle also hit 36 homers and knocked in 101 runs in just 106 games. No doubt it is among the things fans were robbed of by the players’ strike/lockout.

We bet most people won’t remember the previous high finish in the batting race, but it belongs to Miguel Dilone, who hit .341 in 1980 to finish third behind George Brett’s epic season of hitting .390 and Cecil Cooper who hit .352.

Dilone was a speedster who wound up with a lifetime .265 average, but for that season, he was a catalyst, with a .375 on base percentage and 61 steals, which at that time was a club record, topping the 52 swiped by Ray Chapman in 1917.

Could the string be broken this season? We don’t want to jinx the incredible Steven Kwan, but it sure looks like a possibility.

Kwan is currently second in the AL batting race, but that comes with an asterisk. The official leader is Bobby Witt of Kansas City at .326, and Kwan is second only because right now he doesn’t have enough at bats to qualify for the lead. If you add the necessary at bats in, Kwan ranks second at .318, just three points behind Witt.

However, Kwan’s real batting average is .380, 54 points better than the Royals’s shortstop and as soon as the Guardians’ leftfielder has enough at bats, he will have a sizeable advantage in the race.

The Guardians have played 66 games, and a qualifier has the have 3.1 plate appearances per contest, meaning Kwan would need 205 times at the dish. He currently has 183. Keep in mind, he is a leadoff hitter, so he often gets five at bats per night, so he should close that gap very soon.

Kwan is also putting up great numbers in how the game is viewed now. His on base percentage is .445 which would also lead the league with enough at bats, and he is slugging .534. His previous career best in that category was his rookie season, when he slugged .400.

Can it continue? If you mean hit .380, that might be a bit much to ask, but could he become Cleveland’s first batting champion since 1954? Let’s judge it when he finally qualifies for the top spot and see what kind of edge he has then.

We’ve been watching baseball in Cleveland a long time and we don’t remember a hitter like Steven Kwan. And even though batting average isn’t as important as it once was, doing something that hasn’t been done for 70 years is very much an accomplishment.

Remembering When Starting Pitching Brought Confidence To Guardians’ Fans

As recently as 2018, fans of the Cleveland baseball team were spoiled by their starting pitching. The rotation consisted of Corey Kluber (who won 20 games that year), Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and a rookie fifth starter named Shane Bieber.

At the time, we thought going into every game, the Indians had a legitimate chance to win because they had the edge between the two starting pitchers.

Even into the pandemic season of 2020, Terry Francona’s starters were at the top of the sport. Bieber emerged as a Cy Young winner that season, and he was backed up by Carrasco, Clevinger (before he was traded), Aaron Civale, and rookie Triston McKenzie.

Baseball people started to refer to the “Cleveland Pitching Factory”, with the organization seemingly able to crank out starter after starter. Heck, it happened last season when McKenzie went down in spring training, Zach Plesac proved ineffective, and Cal Quantrill was hurt, the Guardians simply went to the farm and called up Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams.

Apparently, this season the factory has been shut down for repairs or something, because the organization is scrambling to put an effective starting pitcher on the mound each and every night.

It was certainly curious when the organization released Quantrill after the season rather than pay him through arbitration, where he figured to make about $6 million, not a lot of money for a guy who can give you innings.

The right-hander has pitched to a 3.58 ERA in Colorado this season logging a staff high 73 innings. By the way, those innings would also lead the Guardians’ staff.

The only pitcher signed over the winter was Reds’ castoff Ben Lively, who has been a savior for this year’s staff.

Bieber was lost to elbow surgery after two starts, leaving a huge void in the rotation, which coming into the season consisted of him, the three rookies, and McKenzie, who missed most of last year with an elbow issue.

Of the trio of first year arms called up last year and thought to provide the backbone of the rotation going forward, only Bibee has been close to his ’23 form, with a 3.73 ERA in 70 innings with 76 strikeouts and 19 walks.

Williams has missed all year with an elbow issue, but hopefully can return soon. Allen has made his 13 starts but has a 5.57 ERA.

McKenzie has not pitched like the guy who put up a 2.96 ERA in 2022. He has allowed a league leading 14 dingers (tied with his teammate Logan Allen) and also leads the league in walks with 36 in 62.2 innings of work.

Right now, the rotation has more holes than an old guy’s socks. And there were no solutions at hand.

Xzavion Curry has made three spot starts, one very good, the other two being “meh”. The ERA of the pitching staff at Columbus is 5.46 and the best starter down there is journeyman Connor Gillispie, who has a 5.02 ERA, although he has 60 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. He’s 26 years old.

The bullpen has taken on a heavy burden for the big club to get off to this 42-22 start. How long can they sustain the success pitching all of these innings? Could they do it all year? Sure, but based on the past, eventually it is going to catch up with them unless the starters start carrying their weight.

As we said, Lively has been a savior and Bibee has been solid. Carlos Carrasco has been a nice story in his return to the franchise, but he can’t be trusted to get through a lineup a third time.

McKenzie needs to throw strikes and he and Allen need to keep the ball in the yard.

More likely is the front office is going to have to overpay to bring in an arm. With the Cleveland bullpen, they may be able to get a guy who can soak up innings and keep the team in the game.

The rest of the team is doing too well for the rotation to be a burden.

Thoughts On Hoops And Cavs…

Some basketball thoughts and how they pertain to the Cleveland Cavaliers as the NBA Finals are in full swing.

**This has been a theme for us all year, but both the Celtics and Mavericks are significantly bigger all around the court than the Cavs. Boston goes with two 6’4″ guards, their forwards are 6’6″ and 6’7″ and with Al Horford at center they are still taller at three spots than the Cavs.

If Kristaps Porzingis is at center, they are taller at four spots with only Evan Mobley having a size advantage.

Dallas goes 6’10” at center, 6’7″ and 6’5″ at the forwards, and 6’7″ and 6’2″ in the backcourt. But they have two bigs they bring off the bench in Maxi Kleber and Dereck Lively, both of whom are 6’10”.

The Cavs simply have to get more size, particularly in the backcourt and small forward and running it back with the same crew simply doesn’t get that done.

Last year’s champs, Denver, goes 6’11”, 6’10”, 6’8″ up front with guards who are 6’4″ and 6’5″. The 2021 title holders, Milwaukee, started a 7 foot center, a 6’11” and 6’7″ pair at forwards and a backcourt of 6’4″ and 6’5″ players.

**Hall of Famer Becky Hammon, coach of the WNBA Las Vegas Aces, a great player and longtime assistant coach for the Spurs took some heat during the NBA season for suggesting it is difficult to win with a smaller player as your best player.

We agree with her. Think about it, how many small players were the best players on championship teams? We can think about only Isiah Thomas, who at 6’1″ led the Pistons to back-to-back titles.

It isn’t impossible. But that’s what the Cavaliers have to think about when building around Donovan Mitchell, should he agree to a contract extension.

And remember those Pistons’ teams had three big men, 6’11” or bigger among the top eight on their team in minutes, and one of the best wing defenders ever coming off the bench and getting starter minutes.

We aren’t saying they should abandon the Mitchell led team, but we are saying they need to put some size around him.

**Don’t forget the Cavs do have the 20th overall pick in the upcoming NBA Draft and there should be some size and experience there when they make their selection.

By experience, we mean players who have played a couple of years in college and because of that should be able to contribute right away. A couple of our favorites are 6’9″ Tristan da Silva, a four year college player at Colorado out of Germany and 6’10” Bobi Klintman, who played one year at Wake Forest, but is 21 years old.

We did see one mock draft with Cleveland taking a 6’5″ combo player and if that happens, we will lose any shred of confidence we have with the current front office.

It has been a while since the draft has been a thought in Cleveland. The Cavs did draft Ochai Agbaji in the first round in 2022, but he was quickly dealt to Utah in the Mitchell transaction.

Hopefully, whoever the Cavs select later this month will be around longer than Agbaji.

You’re A Candidate, You’re A Candidate…Cavs Coaching Search

By now, perhaps you too have received a request by the Cleveland Cavaliers to interview for their head coaching job. The Cavs have at least five or six candidates to date that they have received permission to interview.

That seems like a lot, particularly because when you made the decision to fire J. B. Bickerstaff, you would think they had at least one or two people in mind to take the job. That doesn’t seem the case.

We also wonder if there are so many candidates because they are looking for someone whose idea for the team is the same as Koby Altman’s, and that may be difficult to find.

We would think most coaches would look at the Cavaliers’ roster and say it will be very difficult to win in the playoffs with two small guards, two solid big men, and a bunch of undersized wings.

Our personal position is we would like someone with previous NBA head coaching experience. On the other hand, we don’t want a retread either. We consider the latter to be someone who has moved around the league from team to team, like a Doc Rivers or a Nate McMillan.

But someone who has had one job deserves a second chance. Isn’t everyone better the second time they do something? We have mentioned previously that we like Kenny Atkinson, who went 118-190 in four seasons with Brooklyn, and took them to the playoffs in one season.

James Borrego seems to be a solid candidate as well, after an interim gig with Orlando in 2014-15, he guided Charlotte for four seasons, the last one resulting in a 43-39 record, which you would think they would initiate statue building instead of getting a pink slip.

One of the candidates mentioned is troubling to us, and that would be Johnnie Bryant, reportedly someone with a close relationship with Donovan Mitchell. In our opinion, that would be a colossal mistake.

What happens if the Cavs aren’t winning with Bryant at the helm? Is the organization stuck with him because Mitchell likes him?

Bryant has no track record of being a head coach in the NBA. Could he lay the hammer down on Mitchell if need be? That’s a tough one because Mitchell would be the guy who got him the gig.

It also puts Mitchell in an imposing position within the organization, and frankly, he’s an excellent player, top 20 at least in the league right now, but he hasn’t earned that kind of gravitas.

It has been reported that Mitchell didn’t like the talk that he wanted Bickerstaff out, so does he want the pressure of being the guy who hired the next coach too?

If we were a candidate for the job, we would want to remake the roster to what currently works in the NBA, which means adding size, and we would want to know if the front office is amenable to doing that.

Especially if you are someone who didn’t play in the league and is hoping for a second chance to sit in the first chair. There aren’t many coaches who get a third chance without great success prior (see Mike Budenholzer).

Hopefully, this is Altman doing a thorough job in canvasing rather that an exercise in seeing who agrees with him.

We use this comment a lot in the world of sports: “The wise man knows what he doesn’t know”. We hope that doesn’t apply here.

Do Guardians Really Need A Shortstop? Not So Fast

As the calendar turns to June, the Major League Baseball trading deadline is now less than two months away. And with the Cleveland Guardians off to a tremendous start, speculation has started as to what the front office will be targeting at the July 30th deadline.

It doesn’t take in depth analysis to realize the Guardians need starting rotation help, although you could say that with most contending teams.

Obviously, losing Shane Bieber after two starts was a huge blow, and not having Gavin Williams to date, has really wiped out 40% of the rotation. Williams is making progress, making a rehab start last week, and perhaps he can be back before July 1st.

Still, although Tanner Bibee has been very good (4-1, 3.74 ERA) he is averaging less than 6 innings per start. The same is true of the other rotation pieces, Triston McKenzie and Ben Lively.

This is put a heavy toll on the bullpen, which has been the strength of the team. The list of the top ten in the American League in appearances features four pitchers wearing Cleveland uniforms: Emmanuel Clase is tied for the league lead with 30. Hunter Gaddis and Nick Sandlin are tied for fourth at 29, and Scott Barlow is tied for 7th at 28.

Add in Tim Herrin with 27 games and rookie Cade Smith with 25. So far, no one has lost effectiveness, but you would hate to get into August and have the relief corps suffer a downturn.

The other position that comes up is shortstop. However, if you look at WAR, the Guardians’ weakest positions have been RF and catcher. The rightfield issue may sort itself out as we wouldn’t be surprised if David Fry starts getting more playing time there now that Stephan Kwan has returned.

We have written about Fry before, and when you are hitting .355 with an OPS of 1128, your manager is going to figure out how to get you in the lineup.

Brayan Rocchio doesn’t have a lot of pop, and we are sure people look at his .203 batting average and say he has to be replaced. But looking inside the numbers, you see that Rocchio is tied for second on the team in walks with 23, behind only Fry with 24.

So is on base percentage is .308, which is the American League average. And Rocchio has been more than adequate defensively, which is important because first and foremost, shortstop is a defensive position.

Let’s not overlook the Guardians’ excellent start and the way the hitting has produced runs certainly buys Rocchio more time.

And we have always said this. If Cleveland was having problems producing offense, then Rocchio would certainly be under more scrutiny. But they are winning and scoring.

We have also always felt that good lineups need seven solid bats in the batting order to be productive. The league average OPS is 699 right now, and the Guards have five hitters over that figure, but over the last month, Tyler Freeman is close at 694.

We are willing to give Rocchio more time, especially because he has an acceptable strikeout/walk ratio, meaning he is not getting dominated by opposing pitchers.

If you are asking, we would add pitching first and foremost, because we agree with former skipper Terry Francona, when you think you have enough pitching, you go out and get some more.

We would rank the trade targets this way: 1). Starter 2). Reliever 3). Starter…….4). shortstop.

Six weeks from now, we may sing a different tune.

With Watson, We Have To See It To Believe It.

Since we live in northeast Ohio and football is discussed all year round, the talk about Deshaun Watson is relentless. So, we guess we will dive into the conversation about the Browns’ quarterback too.

We will start by not understanding how anyone can have confidence that Watson will be one of the best signal callers in the NFL. We do agree that at one point in his career, Watson was a top five QB in the league, but we are getting farther and farther away from that occurance.

We understand passer rating is not the true measure of quarterback play, but with Houston, Watson had a 104.5 rating and in his dozen games with the Browns, that mark has dipped to 81.7.

Every metric has decreased significantly from his time with the Texans–

Houston Cleveland
Completion % 67.8 59.8
Yards/Attempt 8.3 6.5
Interception % 2.1 2.6

In 2020, Watson completed 70% of his passes. In his 12 games with the Browns, he has had one game, last year’s win over the Titans where he initially was injured, where he completed that high of a percentage (27 of 33, 81.8%).

Can Watson get back to close to the level he played at in Houston? The Browns are trying everything to help him. They hired a new offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, who has experience guiding a mobile passer.

Perhaps the bigger question is what happens is the Browns get off to a poor start, and quarterback play is a large factor? Cleveland has a huge financial commitment to Watson and has it for three more seasons.

Meanwhile, the rest of the roster is set up to win now. Myles Garrett is 28 years old and in his prime, winning the NFL Defensive Player of the Year last season. Joel Bitonio is 32 and in his 9th season. Amari Cooper is 29, and David Njoku is now 27. Denzel Ward is 26.

They made the playoffs last season with Watson starting only six contests, and really only played in five. It would figure that if he played like he did in Houston, the Browns would be a Super Bowl contender.

The situation reminds us of the Odell Beckham situation. When the Browns traded for him in 2019, it had been two seasons since he was truly an elite receiver. Fans and media alike kept waiting for the guy who dazzled the NFL in his first three seasons, but that Beckham didn’t exist any more.

What if the same is true with Watson? Understanding the huge trade capital involved and the guaranteed money involved, if the quarterback cannot turn back the clock to 2020, what will Kevin Stefanski be allowed to do?

We understand everyone wants him to be that guy again, but because of circumstances, suspension, and injury, it has now been three seasons since anyone has seen it.

We would guess within the confines in Berea it has been discussed, because that’s what organizations due, and that’s why Jameis Winston was signed. The Browns need an alternative starting QB in case of injury or in case Watson’s play is just slightly above average.

Until we see the 2020 version of Deshaun Watson, we will remain skeptical. We would bet there are folks who think the same way within the offices in Berea.

Can’t Focus On One Thing In Evaluating Baseball Players

Baseball is changing, and we don’t mean the rule changes put forth by the commissioner a few years ago. For the record, we like the pitch clock and don’t have an issue with limiting the number of pick off throws by a pitcher.

As for the “ghost runner” in extra innings? Well, you can’t win them all, right Rob Manfred?

Over the past 40 years, there have been many new statistics, most of them add a lot to the game and give more information as to how valuable a player can be. Others, such as numbers reflecting expected numbers, tell both fans and front offices to be patient with players, particularly young ones.

A statistic that has come under fire recently, mostly because of a comment made by ESPN’s Michael Wilbon, is exit velocity. Quite frankly, it is cool to measure how hard players are hitting the baseball.

One issue among some fans is they take a number like exit velocity, and it is the only thing they look at. For Cleveland fans, Steven Kwan has a very low exit velocity, but there is no question he is a good hitter.

Two-time batting champ (and hitting for a high average still helps teams) Luis Arraez also doesn’t hit the ball that hard. Yet, in an interview a couple of years ago, Shane Bieber said he was one of the players he hated to face.

The point is while it is something that can be measured, it really has nothing to do with how good a player is performing.

We hear this locally when hearing about Guardians’ infielder Gabriel Arias. His fans constantly point out how hard he hits the baseball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit it all that often. He has an average exit velo of 89.8, and a hard hit rate of 39.7%. He also strikes out 31.7% of the time.

Compare those number to Kwan, a much more accomplished hitter. His exit velocity average is 82.3 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is 18%.

Let’s compare Arias to a less accomplished major league player, Tyler Freeman. He has an average exit velocity of 89.1 MPH, a tick below Arias, and his hard-hit percentage is 41.4%. His K rate is just 15.9%.

Those numbers would indicate why the Guardians’ front office have stayed with Freeman longer despite struggling early this year.

By the way, the Guardian who ranks 7th in hard hit percentage. It’s Jose Ramirez. And Arias’ exit velocity is also a tad higher than Ramirez. The difference is the five-time all-star only strikes out in 11.3% of his plate appearances.

We understand to market itself, especially to younger fans, baseball tries to point out excitement, the spectacular play, the rocket off the bat, etc. However, lost in that is what helps teams win games, which is the object of the sport.

It’s not sexy or exciting to hit a ground ball to the right side to move a runner to third base with less than two outs or hit a sacrifice fly, but it helps winning.

Sabermetrics is a good thing, but it seems to have gone overboard. A recent question about what the biggest problem about baseball was recently asked, and someone said the overuse of analytics in today’s game.

There were a lot of responses agreeing with that sentiment.

The point is in evaluating players there are many things to look at, no one should focus on just one. And also, people need to remember the game is not a skills competition, they keep score for a reason.