Author: MW
A Look at the '10 Tribe Pitching
The other day, we talked about the Indians’ projected lineup for 2010. That was the easy part. Today, we are looking at the make up of the ’10 pitching staff, and there really aren’t any anchors to this part of the team going into the off-season.
If healthy, the first couple of guys that come to mind are left-hander Aaron Laffey, and recently acquired righty Justin Masterson. Laffey didn’t start the year with the varsity, but was called up in April and has started and relieved this season. Overall, he has been very effective with a 7-3 record and 3.42 ERA with one save. It is difficult to imagine the southpaw not having a spot on next year’s pitching staff.
Masterson will be on the 2010 Tribe in some capacity, either in the rotation or in the bullpen, as he did both with the Red Sox. Masterson has good stuff, although he does get hit by left handed hitters, but I would prefer him starting because it is more important to have guys who can get 18-20 outs than three. He’s a slinger, but he’s allowed less hits than innings and has struck out 81 hitters in 88-2/3 frames, while walking just 36.
And unless he’s traded during the winter, Kerry Wood will be the Indians’ closer next season. Wood has had some rough spots, particularly with control of his breaking pitch, but has saved 16 games in 21 opportunities. With his contract being a little pricey, he will be with Cleveland in 2010.
The rest of the staff is filled with question marks.
Several young relievers have pitched very well for the Indians this season, but without a real track record, it’s tough to gauge how they will perform in the future. Lefty Tony Sipp and right-hander Chris Perez have replaced the old Raffy Right and Raffy Left duo. Sipp needs to improve his control (17 walks in 26 IP), but has the ability to miss bats (29 K’s and only 17 hits allowed).
Chris Perez has been sensational since his first two outings with the Tribe, allowing just 12 hits in 18-2/3 innings and has struck out 22 hitters while walking just five.
Joe Smith has pitched well, mostly against right-handed hitters and deserves a spot in the ’10 bullpen. He generally throws strikes and keeps the ball in the park.
That leaves three spots in the rotation and three more places in the bullpen.
As for the rotation, the team is hoping Jake Westbrook will finally get over the elbow soreness that plagued his comeback from Tommy John surgery and take a regular turn as a starter. It has been reported there is no structural damage in the joint, so he should be back. Fausto Carmona is showing signs that he can be at least a guy who can provide decent starts since his return from the minors. Those two take two spots on the pitching staff.
That leaves the competition for the last spot in the rotation to David Huff (8-7), Jeremy Sowers (5-9), Carlos Carrasco, and Hector Rondon. I like Huff despite the high ERA (6.50), because he shows the ability to keep his team into games better. However, Carrasco has been lights out since coming over from the Phillies organization, and Rondon is pitching at AAA at 21 years of age.
Here’s hoping the front office picks the guy who pitches the best in spring training rather than having an agenda based on something other than performance.
As for the bullpen, I would assume that Rafael Perez gets one of the spots based on past performance. He was one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball in 2007 and 2008, and he deserves the chance to show this year is an aberration.
The last two spots would seem to have Jess Todd and Jensen Lewis’ names on them, but GM Mark Shapiro could look to bring in more power arms in trades or free agency. Todd has been spotty in limited appearances. He has fallen into Eric Wedge’s plan of only certain guys can pitch with a lead, and he currently isn’t one of them.
Lewis is a Wedge favorite, so if the skipper isn’t back, he could have a tough time making the roster. I would give Lewis a look as a starter though. His biggest drawback is the gopher ball, which would be minimized as a starter. He has allowed less hits than innings pitched and has struck out over twice as many as he has walked.
There is also the possibility of some youngsters currently in the minors being in contention for spots as well. Southpaw Rich Rundles or newcomer R.J. Swindle could be used as situational guys, while Steven Wright, who is 10-0 at Akron, Josh Judy, or Connor Graham, who came from the Rockies for Rafael Betancourt deal, could contend for a spot in the relief corps.
If the team has some money available for free agency, I would recommend signing another bullpen arm and a starter who can eat some innings to provide some stability in the pitching staff. Obviously, these wouldn’t be high-ticket guys, but perhaps some guys who get past the first wave of free agency and are still looking for contract in January.
If the Tribe is going to make a run in ’10, the quality of their pitching will be the reason why.
KM
A Look Ahead at '10 Tribe Hitters
The Cleveland Indians are doing what they usually do, that is they are finishing the season strong. Unfortunately, much like 2008, the chance to make the post-season ended sometime at the end of May. It was certainly over once the Tribe visited Wrigley Field, where they blew three straight games to the Cubs.
So now it’s time to start looking toward 2010. For starters, the Indians need to get off to a better start to the season, something they have really only done once (2007) in the last seven years. Strangely, those seven seasons tie in to the tenure of Eric Wedge as the Cleveland skipper. They also need to do better in interleague play, which has become a problem the past two seasons.
In terms of players, who is a keeper and who should be replaced? Surely, the Indians have some talent on the roster, particularly among the everyday players. It’s one of the reasons the decision to deal Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez is galling, particularly the southpaw who is currently terrorizing the National League. It would certainly be nice to have a legitimate ace on the staff.
Despite the trade of Martinez, the Indians still rank fifth in the American League in runs scored. With all of the young players, the offense can be inconsistent, but that may change with a new hitting coach.
Certainly, Grady Sizemore is a fixture in the lineup. Sizemore’s elbow has bothered him this season, but he still has a 780 OPS despite this, and recently is starting to hit like the Sizemore of 2007 and 2008. It would be great if he cut down on his strikeouts, but he’s a fixture in the 2010 batting order.
The outfield is two-thirds in place because of the emergence of Shin-Soo Choo. Choo followed up his excellent second half of ’08 with a solid season. He is among the league leaders in on base percentage and has 48 extra base hits to date. He’s another who could stand to cut down on whiffing, but to his credit, he has been quoted as saying he needs to do that.
Asdrubal Cabrera is the last of the “for sures” in the ’10 Tribe lineup. He was moved to shortstop to upgrade the defense at that position, but he has raised the offense at the spot as well with an 813 OPS. He may have a higher batting average (.314) than he will carry in the future, but he should improve his power numbers, as he gets older. Remember, he’s just 23 years old.
That leaves six spots in the lineup.
Travis Hafner figures to be the DH, especially with his big contract. He has been pretty productive overall this season with an 858 OPS, including a .500 slugging percentage, and 28 extra base hits in 248 at bats. He may never be "Pronk" again, but he could be a 26 HR, 80 RBI guy, which isn’t the end of the world.
Matt LaPorta figures to be in the lineup somewhere, either at LF or 1B, but he is young and GM Mark Shapiro needs to have a veteran on the roster to serve as the back up plan should the key player in the C.C. Sabathia trade struggle early. Luis Valbuena continues to impress, and should be at least half of a platoon set up at 2B. He is hitting better the more time he gets in the majors, which is a good sign. He’s also an extra base hit machine with 29 in 249 at bats, meaning he has more than Hafner in one more at bat.
That leaves catcher, third base, and either LF/1B depending on where LaPorta winds up.
I have a hard time believing Kelly Shoppach will be on the team next season because he has been terrible and he is eligible for arbitration. The catching duo for 2010 will likely be Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, unless Carlos Santana wows everyone in training camp. However, based on the way the Tribe does business, Santana will start the season at Columbus.
The hot corner is a difference of opinion for me and the Indians. I would be looking to replace Jhonny Peralta who continues to show he is nothing more than an average player, one who will make almost $5 million next season. That’s too much for a team crying about a high payroll. I would move Peralta for more pitching, and find a stop gap free agent to play third next season. You can probably get a serviceable player for about $2 miilion, one that can give you the productivity of Peralta. Keep in mind, the third baseman of the future is a year or two away in Lonnie Chisenhall.
If Andy Marte continues to hit, he could play 3B as well, and then you would need a veteran to man left field or first base. Or the team could give Jordan Brown (hitting .330 at Columbus) a shot at first. GM Mark Shapiro will have to add a mid-level free agent to provide insurance.
We will look at the pitching staff later this week.
MW
Browns Look Better
Things That Bother Me
This is a slow time for Cleveland sports. The Indians’ season is winding down, and for all intent and purpose has been over since the end of May. The Browns laid an egg in their first pre-season game, and everyone seems to be depressed about the season. Everyone is excited about the Cavaliers, but training camp doesn’t even start for them for another five weeks.
However, there are still things that are bothering me. Here is a list…
· The Browns are starting to complain about Eric Mangini’s training camp being too tough. I say too bad. I understand they grew accustomed to the “country club” atmosphere under the previous regime, but they finished 4-12. If you want comfort and warm and fuzzy feelings, play better football.
· Braylon Edwards explaining that his drops are part of the game. Wide receivers are paid to catch the football, it’s part of the job requirement. No one thinks he should catch every ball thrown to him in a year, but one drop per game is too many. The other frustrating thing about Edwards is his ability to make sensational plays, but then drop a ball right in his hands.
· Mangini should decide on a quarterback sooner than later. In fact, I think he should make a decision after this weekend’s game against the Lions. The quicker the receivers, offensive line, and the coordinator know who the man is, the better off this football team will be.
· The Indians continuing their act as the spin kings, giving out the AL Central standings after the all star break showing the Tribe as having the best record in the division from that time. Unfortunately, this isn’t the minor league where there is a first half and second half. Also, the season starts in April, not in the middle of July.
· I know Andy Marte hasn’t hit like he showed in Columbus, but until he plays every day for two weeks, I will keep wondering if he can be a productive player at the major league level. I realize he struggled in Cleveland the past two years, but he had his best AAA season to date, and deserves a chance to see if it translates. Playing every other day doesn’t give him a full shot.
· His first appearance with the Tribe was a debacle, but Chris Perez looks like he can become an important part of the Indians’ bullpen next year. He throws hard and has a wicked breaking ball. He has been very good since that first outing.
· Much like Trevor Crowe early in the season, right now Chris Gimenez looks overmatched at the plate. He should be sent back to Columbus to get a tutorial with hitting instructor Jon Nunnally. By the way, shouldn’t Nunnally get a shot on the big league staff next year?
MW
Meet the New Browns…
The Cleveland Spinners?
The Cleveland Indians are an organization under fire. The team has been a disappointment the past two years, and their fans are angry. They have played well since the all-star break for the second straight year, but that is fooling no one. The fans want answers, but all we are getting are excuses. That might be biggest reason for the angst.
The organization is in full cover your butt mode. They can give you all kinds of reasons as to why the 2008 and 2009 seasons went down the toilet, and they can tell you how the system is unfair. However, they haven’t told you that they are going to change the way they do business.
Since there are a lot of bad feelings out there among the fans, the front office, including the owners, should be laying low and waiting for the public’s attitude to become less edgy. In other words, stop the spinning and the talk about revenue streams. The Dolans should be kept quiet.
No one wants to hear about the $16 million they are losing this year. In fact, I would be asking them how much money they made in previous years. They certainly didn’t have a press conference to announce profits since they’ve owned the ballclub. If they are going to cry about the losses, then tell us how much has been made over the years.
Nor should the front office tell us about the team playing better over the past three weeks. Once again, the Tribe is winning when it doesn’t matter. The Indians are still fifteen games under .500 when being at that mark would make them contenders. There aren’t many people getting excited about winning series against the Central Division leaders. In fact, it’s depressing because it just shows that those teams aren’t very good.
Also, stop patting yourselves on the back about the high ceiling of the prospects obtained in the recent deals. You traded a Cy Young Award winner and an all-star! You should have at least received some good prospects.
Following a 93-win season in 2005, three of the last four seasons have been disappointing. Most of the players have changed. The only regulars remaining from that ’05 team are Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, and Travis Hafner. The manager is still there. So, when the front office tells you they have tried everything to see why the Indians haven’t played to expectations, they haven’t. Sometimes, firing the manager works (see: Rockies, Colorado).
The folks at WTAM (the Indians’ flagship station) will tell you what a great baseball man Eric Wedge is, and their afternoon drive time host will say Wedge will get a job instantly if Cleveland lets him go, but the reality is the guy has been here for seven years and has a .500 record. He’s been to the post-season once. That host even said Paul Dolan called him after a comment that Mark Shapiro lied to him. Think the Dolans want to control what’s said about their team?
Why isn’t Matt LaPorta on this team? Don’t the Indians need to find out if he can help them before next April? The company line is that the team needs to find out about Andy Marte. If this is so, why isn’t Marte in the lineup everyday?
Those are the questions the fans want answered.
I hope I am wrong about the Indians. I want them to be good. I still watch the games. I want them to be contenders in 2010. However, I’m tired of hearing excuses and spin. Make the team better. We want results, not clichés and rhetoric.
KM
Powe A Good Gamble
Cavaliers’ GM Danny Ferry isn’t afraid to take a gamble, a refreshing difference from the other people who run teams in this city. He went out and acquired Shaquille O’Neal after the disappointing loss to Orlando in the conference finals.
He gambled on Mo Williams last season when many thought he was just another shoot first point guard, but he was the correct piece on a team that has LeBron James setting up much of the offense.
Now, it appears that Ferry has done it again, signing free agent forward Leon Powe to a two year contract even though Powe will not be able to play until after the All Star break.
It seems like one criteria that the Cavaliers use in judging talent is how they play against the wine and gold, which when you think about it is pretty smart. The Cavs are one of the league’s best teams and if you can play well against them, you can be a contributor for them.
The Cavs used this philosophy in getting Williams, who gave them fits while playing in Milwaukee for the Bucks, and it looks as though they are going it again with Powe, who had some of his best games for the Celtics against Cleveland.
The Cavaliers never had an answer for Powe’s inside game. He seemed able to score no matter how many bodies wearing Cleveland jerseys were in the paint with him. Obviously, this skill impressed Ferry and Mike Brown, and they were anxious to get the former Cal product into the wine and gold.
Powe will spend the first half of the season rehabbing his knee, which suffered a torn ACL during the last season’s playoffs. If his rehab goes well, Powe will bring a fresh, big body to a team and league that has already played half its games. It would be like making a deal at the trade deadline.
Meanwhile, Ferry keeps stockpiling big men, which is always a good thing. The more depth up front a team has, the better. I’m sure the team hopes second year men J.J. Hickson and Darnell Jackson will continue to improve, but they can’t be sure of that, particularly with Hickson’s back problems. So it would not be a surprise to see the Cavs re-signing veteran Joe Smith.
With both O’Neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas in their thirties, the Cavs need depth so they can limit their minutes and perhaps give either one an occasional day off. The GM is doing just that. It appears he is eliminating any obstacle in bringing a championship to Cleveland. Maybe other Cleveland teams should take note.
JK
Questions for Camp
- The quarterback question: All eyes will be on the signal caller during the first two games, and here’s hoping the decision is made after those contests. The team needs to establish its leader as early as possible, and deciding the starter will give that player three quarters of action in the third preseason tilt. Everyone should have an open mind in these first two games.
- Wide receiver: There is no question Braylon Edwards will start, but who will man the spot opposite him? The frontrunners are rookie 2nd round picks Brian Robiske and Muhammad Massaquoi. It may just come down to who blocks better downfield. There is no question that veteran Mike Furrey will be the slot guy and the first down specialist.
- James Davis: Is Davis the recincarnation of Ben Gay or is he a legitimate NFL running back. Davis probably would have went higher in the draft had he left school after his junior year, but can he be the guy if something happens to Jamal Lewis. Jerome Harrison will be the change up third down back, but the Browns need someone who can handle the bulk of the carries if Lewis were to go down.
- Kamerion Wimbley: Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan seems committed to moving Wimbley around in his schemes, but in turn Wimbley must put pressure on the quarterback. The linebacker has to shake the growing label on him that he’s a good athlete, not necessarily a football player.
- Stopping the Run: This has been an achilles heel for the franchise since returning to the league in 1999. You simply cannot win in the NFL without being able to accomplish this. Mangini brought in a couple of guys from the Jets to take care of this (Kenyon Coleman, Eric Barton) and boost the team’s rank in this area.
- Improving the Secondary: All signs from camp point to Abram Elam being an impact player at safety. Getting Rod Hood from Arizona means the Browns will no longer have to start two cornerbacks with a total of seven years experience at the position. At this vital position, experience is always key.
- The Savage Guys: It will be interesting to see how the new regime treats the players drafted by the Browns’ former GM, especially those who didn’t play for Romeo Crennel. Mangini seems to like OLB Alex Hall and WR Paul Hubbard, who were both largely ignored by Crennel. Will they play a bigger role for the ’09 Browns?
Most people will focus on the quarterback play, but as you can see, there are plenty of other things for fans to watch when this football team starts going against different competition.
JD
There is Talent on Tribe
After the Indians took two out of three against the Detroit Tigers last weekend, a caller on Michael Reghi’s great show on WKNR asked the host which team he would rather have, the Tribe or the Tigers. Reghi, of course, said the Motor City Kitties, but it got me thinking.
Most definitely, Detroit’s pitching staff is much better than Cleveland’s, especially with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson at the top of the rotation. However, the everyday line up isn’t that much different, even with the trade of Victor Martinez.
It reinforced why the trades made last week were most definitely a curious decision at best.
1B: No contest for Detroit. Miguel Cabrera is vastly superior to Andy Marte, Chris Gimenez, Matt LaPorta, or whoever else the Indians want to place at the position.
2B: The Tribe is platooning Luis Valbuena and Jamey Carroll and the Tigers have Placido Polanco. The latter’s batting average is down to .263 and he never had a lot of pop, but he still gets the edge here. However, in a year or two, there is no question to me that Valbuena will be the better player.
SS: Cleveland gets the edge here with Asdrubal Cabrera over Adam Everett. Cabrera has an OPS of 808 compared to Everett’s 621. Everett is an excellent glove man, but his slight edge there doesn’t make up for the fact he is terrible offensively.
3B: This is where it gets a little tricky. Certainly, this year Brandon Inge is having a better year than Jhonny Peralta. However, Inge is having a career year and overall I would rather have Peralta playing the hot corner. In fact, with Peralta’s recent hot streak, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tribe third baseman winds up having better numbers than Inge at the end of the year.
LF: No contest. Marcus Thames is better than any concoction the Indians have played in leftfield this season.
CF: This is another tricky one. Before the season, most people would have considered Grady Sizemore a little better than Curtis Granderson. This year, of course, Sizemore has been hurt and has performed well below his normal statistics. Meanwhile, Granderson is having a year like Sizemore had last season, which would have put him in contention for an MVP award had Cleveland been a contender.
RF: No contest in Cleveland’s favor. Shin-Soo Choo is much better than the combination of Magglio Ordonez and Clete Thomas for the Tigers.
C: With the Martinez deal, neither team is looking for a lot of offense from the position. Kelly Shoppach actually has a higher OPS (717) than Gerald Laird of the Tigers (646). Rate this position as even.
DH: Both teams have had injury issues here. The Tigers used Ordonez here for a while,and is now using Carlos Guillen, while Travis Hafner has been the Tribe’s primary DH, although he has missed considerable time. When Hafner has been in the lineup, he has been productive for the most part, thus giving the Indians a slight edge.
The verdict is the Tigers have clear edges at 1B and LF, while the Indians enjoy the same at SS and RF. The other positions could go either way.
This shows the everyday talent for the Detroit Tigers isn’t much better than the Indians, and they are leading the division. The difference is pitching, and that’s why dealing Cliff Lee, one of the best pitchers in the American League is galling. Add to Lee, and the Tribe could be sitting on top of the division in 2010. Now, there is a snowball’s chance in…
Yesterday, Indians’ president Paul Dolan announced that the ballclub is going to lose $16 million this season, a comment that interests no one except the team’s financial people. Fans don’t care. They want to see a winning baseball team in this city.
If you can’t sustain a loss of revenue like this, then you probably shouldn’t own a major league baseball team. I’m sure the Indians aren’t the only team losing money, but their owners aren’t talking about it. The baseball fans of Cleveland are looking upon the owners are crying about it.
Other things from his statements that should be refuted are his claim that team Eric Wedge inherited in 2003 was like an expansion team. Expansion teams generally don’t have players like C.C. Sabathia, and players such as Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, and Brandon Phillips is their system. The cupboard was not as bare as Dolan would like us to believe.
The other comment that bugged me is that fans would really be upset if they didn’t make the trades last week. I still maintain this team could have contended next year, and as we all know by now, if you get into the playoffs, you have a chance to win. I think the fans would like to have had a shot next year, they were denied that opportunity.
Dolan should learn that the only statistic fans are interested in is the win-loss record, not the bottom line.
These guys should run for public office the way they spin.
MW