For Browns, A Win is A Win

After spending much of the last two seasons having a chance to win football games in the fourth quarter, only to see victories slip away, no one should complain about any win. 

The Browns did not play an artistic game, particularly on offense, but they made plays when they needed to, and ran their record to 2-1 on the season with a 17-16 triumph over the Miami Dolphins.

Pat Shurmur didn’t get good news when he arrived at the stadium, learning that Peyton Hillis was still too ill to play, and he was sent home.  If Hillis watched the contest, nothing he saw made him feel any better until the end.

The west coast offense sputtered and the running attack was ignored early.  Colt McCoy started out very inaccurate, hitting just 2 of 8 passes at one point, and his interception set up the only Miami touchdown. 

And with Hillis out and Josh Cribbs hampered by a groin injury, the head coach couldn’t get the special teams spark from Cribbs he normally does.  The Browns look lethargic.

The Dolphins were poised to score again until Jayme Mitchell forced a Reggie Bush fumble on the Browns’ 22.  Cleveland recovered to dodge one bullet.

On their next possession, Miami again moved into Browns’ territory, but Dan Carpenter missed a 51-yard field goal, and that was the wake up call Cleveland needed.

Making Hillis’ replacement, Montario Hardesty, a part of the offense for the first time (two runs and a pass), Cleveland struck pay dirt for the first time, with McCoy hitting Cribbs (who else) for a 33-yard TD pass off a designed rollout.

Miami kicked a field goal right before halftime on a drive that stalled inside the Cleveland 5 right before halftime to take a 10-7 advantage, but by then defensive coordinator Dick Jauron had started to dial the heat up on Dolphins’ QB Chad Henne.  The Browns finished the game with five sacks in total.  By contrast, McCoy was not sacked at all.

The Browns converted the first drive of the second half into a game tying field goal, and looked to have momentum when they pinned the Dolphins inside their own 5 on the next drive, but a questionable roughing the passer call on rookie Jabaal Sheard gave Miami new life.

McCoy was the benefit of the same call later in the game, and really both calls were ticky tack.  No wonder scoring is up in the NFL, the defensive players have to be playing in fear of hitting people.

Two Miami field goals, the last one coming with 3:23 left in the fourth quarter gave the visitors a 16-10 lead, and it didn’t look good for Cleveland, particularly the way the offense was playing.

Suddenly, the attack showed life.  Rookie WR Greg Little became a factor, catching three balls.  McCoy connected on a series of short passes to keep the chains moving, the biggest one converting a 4th and 4 with a swing pass to Hardesty can gained 10 yards.

Finally, McCoy hit Mohammad Massaquoi for a 14-yard TD pass over the out stretched arms of a Miami defender to give Cleveland their first lead, with Phil Dawson’s extra point, with :43 left.    Those were the only balls Little and Massaquoi caught all day. 

However, a celebration penalty after the score and a horse-collar tackle on the kickoff gave the South Beachers life.

But the defense did not allow any yards to be gained and when Mike Adams picked off Henne’s last pass, the victory was sealed.

McCoy ended up 19 for 39 for 210 yards, 2 TD’s and a pick, while Montario Hardesty gained 67 yards in 14 carries and caught three passes in replacing Hillis.  Ben Watson caught five of McCoy’s tosses for 84 yards.

Defensively, Ahtyba Rubin had eight tackles and 1-1/2 sacks, the same number as Mitchell.  Sheard put heat on Henne all day, and fellow rookie Phil Taylor was stout as well.

And, as usual, you can’t say enough about CB Joe Haden, who held WR Brandon Marshall, one of the league’s best, to just 4 catches for 43 yards.

WIth Tennessee coming to town next week, the Cleveland Browns have a chance to go 3-1 going into the bye week.  You couldn’t ask for anything better than that.

JD

The Tribe Pitching Myth

Most of the good feeling that has surrounded the Cleveland Indians season in 2011 has been directed at the pitching staff. 

The hurlers have garnered a great deal of kudos for the Tribe being in contention for most of the season, and a possibility of a .500 record for the campaign.

However, no one should get carried away.

The Indians rank 9th in the American League in ERA, ahead of teams who are recognized as having shaky pitching:  Boston, Toronto, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Baltimore.

In reality, the good feeling generated for the guys on the mound should be directed at the relief crew, which ranks 3rd in the AL in ERA and 5th in the league in innings pitched. 

The starting pitching ranks both 10th in the junior circuit in ERA and innings pitched. 

Why would anyone think this team doesn’t need to improve the staff going into next season?  It would be crazy to stand pat during the off-season.

Especially with the elbow injury to Carlos Carrasco, who was in the rotation for most of the year.

Certainly, there have been some positives for the rotation in 2011.  Justin Masterson has shown that he is indeed a starting pitcher, and has had a good season with a 12-10 record and 3.15 ERA. 

That ERA is a little inflated from the past month when he may have been a little tired and/or left in some games a little longer than he should have.

Josh Tomlin showed he is a guy who can be counted on to keep his team in games on a regular basis.  He went at least five innings in all of his starts except his last, after which he reported an elbow problem that ended his season.  He wound up at 12-7 with a 4.25 ERA.

And picking up Ubaldo Jimenez gives Manny Acta one more starter he can count on. 

After his first few starts, which were marred by an inability to throw strikes, Jimenez has been solid for the most part over the last month. 

And he gives the Tribe a starter who can strike opposing hitters out, averaging a strikeout per inning.

That leaves the poster boy for inconsistency, Fausto Carmona, and a bunch of unproven youngsters as candidates for the rest of the rotation.

The other problem is that most of the Cleveland starters don’t work deep into games, which creates a strain on the bullpen.  Tribe pitchers had two complete games all year long.

Jimenez is prone to high pitch counts, which prohibits him from eating innings, and Acta seems hesitant to let Tomlin go more than six innings.

Another problem for Cleveland is the bullpen is usually the most volatile part of any major league team.  That doesn’t bode well for next year either.

The Indians have a closer in Chris Perez, who had 35 saves this season, and some good young set up men in Tony Sipp and Vinnie Pestano.  Pestano is a great swing and miss guy with 80 punchouts in 59 innings.

Still, look for a few changes in the ‘pen.  The organization will try to work southpaw Nick Hagadone into the mix for ’12, and either Zach Putnam or Josh Judy will likely be a part of next year’s roster.

The stats for the pitching staff aren’t as good as one might think this season. 

Therefore, GM Chris Antonetti has to be looking to add some help for the mound next season. 

Starting 2012 with the same names and faces isn’t going to lead this team into the playoffs.

KM

 

Tribe Needs to Spend Wisely

My favorite part of the Sunday Plain Dealer sport section is reading Terry Pluto’s column, usually encompassing a comment on each of Cleveland’s professional teams. 

Last week, he discussed the Indians and their approach to the off-season, mostly in how they will handle the upcoming team options on both Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona. 

Pluto figured the Tribe would pick up both options because their 2012 salaries would figure to be what each player would get on the open market. 

However, should GM Chris Antonetti be making that decision based on what other teams might pay?

If Cleveland raised their 2012 player payroll to $80 million, then exercising the options on Sizemore and Carmona, together with Travis Hafner’s salary, would cost the team almost $30 million.

Would it be prudent for a mid-market team like the Indians to commit over 1/3 of the payroll to three players who are question marks for next season?

It says here, no.

It is understandable that this is a tough decision to the Indians’ front office, as all three players have been in the organization for a long time. 

There probably isn’t anything the team can do with Hafner, whose market value isn’t good because he can’t play in the National League, and there aren’t many American League teams interested in a player who can’t play in the field at all.

If Antonetti wants to trade Pronk, the Indians would likely have to absorb a good part of his salary.  And Hafner really isn’t an offensive force anymore, as his slugging percentage has dipped below .450.  He’s not a middle of the order force anymore.

Sizemore looks totally out of sync at this point after three consecutive injury plagued years.  He’s no longer the elite leadoff man he was in his heyday (2005-08), and his strikeout rate in alarming. 

If someone wants to take a chance on Sizemore and pay him close to the $8.5 million he would get from Cleveland next season if his option is picked, good luck to them.  At 29 next season, it is doubtful he can get back to his prime form.

If Sizemore wants to take less cash next year and give the ballclub an extra couple of years, that might be doable.  However, he would have to understand he may need to move out of the leadoff spot and also centerfield.

As for Carmona, would it really be a good idea to pay $7 million for a starter as inconsistent as the former 19 game winner?

One thing needed from a starting pitcher is the ability to keep their teams in games.  That’s the appeal of Josh Tomlin.  You know, for the most part, you will have a chance to win any game he starts.

Since his 19-7 record in 2007, Carmona has put together one decent year (13-14, 3.77 ERA in 2010) in the last four.  That’s doesn’t merit that kind of money.

Now, Carmona’s option may be worth picking up if only to see what kind of interest there may be in a trade.  Some team may want to take a chance on his stuff, which can be tremendous, if you can live with poor performances.

If the Indians want to take the leap into being real contenders to get to the playoffs next season, they will have to do more to the roster than just tweak it.

They need to get a legitimate right-handed hitter and another dependable starting pitcher.  They will need money to get both players, probably in a trade with a team looking to trim payroll.

To base picking up options on struggling players based on market value doesn’t seem to be the smart move for a franchise on a fixed income.

MW

Scoring TD’s Makes the Difference

There were several times in the past few years when the Browns scored the same number of times as their opponents, but Cleveland put just three points on the board, while the other team scored touchdowns. 

We used to say the Browns brought field goals to a touchdown fight.  And if you do that, you will lose all the time.

Today, the shoe was on the other foot.  Pat Shurmur’s team scored touchdowns while the Indianapolis Colts scored field goals, and the Browns came away with a 27-19 win on the road to even their record at 1-1.

Imagine the panic that would have swept Cleveland had this one went the other way.

The easy reason for the win was that the Browns got into the red zone four times and scored two touchdowns, while Indianapolis got there three times and only reached the end zone once, because the statistics are virtually identical.

The Browns gained 303 total yards, the Colts 285.  Cleveland ran for 106 yards, Indianapolis 109.  The brown and orange gained just 21 more passing yards than the Colts. 

Cleveland had an edge in two departments:  Turnovers (2 to 1) and return yards (160 to 66).  The latter number was thanks to Josh Cribbs, who is silencing his critics from last year, when he played injured trying to help his team.

Someone might want to tell the Browns that the early games kickoff at 1 PM, because once again the team looked to be lethargic in the opening quarter.  Also, that same person may want to tell the team that they don’t have to wait for Cribbs to do something to get it going. 

It was a 52 yard kickoff return that sparked the offense and got the team started on a drive, which culminated in a 16 yard TD pass from McCoy to Evan Moore to give Cleveland a 7-6 lead.

The former Kent State QB also caught a key third down throw from Colt McCoy for 25 yards to help Shurmur’s crew take a 14-9 lead on Peyton Hillis’ one yard run. 

Cribbs also set up the Browns last touchdown, which gave Cleveland a 24-12 advantage late in the fourth quarter by returning a punt 43 yards to the Indianapolis 28.  Two plays later, Hillis’ 24 yard run sealed the game for Cleveland. 

When Josh Cribbs in healthy, he is indeed a difference maker.  And for good measure, he also recovered the onside kick after the Colts scored late to cut the Cleveland lead to 27-19. 

McCoy was a proficient passer today, the kind needed in the west coast attack, hitting on 22 of 32 passes for 211 yards and the touchdown toss to Moore.

Hillis touched the ball 31 times (27 carries, 4 receptions) accounting for 117 yards.  It was interesting that Montario Hardesty had just three carries in the game, none until the fourth quarter. 

Greg Little caught four passes for 38 yards, and Mohammed Massaquoi hauled in three for 45 yards.  Brian Robiskie was shut out for the second straight week, and will likely lose playing time to Little.

Defensively, D’Qwell Jackson was solid again, as were the two guys in front of him, DTs Ahtyba Rubin and rookie Phil Taylor.  Taylor looks like a player, folks, and Rubin had one of the two sacks on Kerry Collins.  Another rookie, Jabaal Sheard, had the other, forcing a fumble in the process. 

Usama Young had the defense’s other turnover, picking off Collins early in the fourth quarter.

One disturbing element for Cleveland was four fumbles, although only one was recovered by Indianapolis. Everybody who played in the Browns’ backfield lost the ball (McCoy, Hillis, Hardesty, and FB Owen Marecic).  That cannot happen on a weekly basis.

So, the Browns come home at 1-1, and will likely be favored next week against the Dolphins. 

As for the Colts, people who picked them to win figured one player (Peyton Manning) couldn’t make that much of a difference.  By the end of the year, they will see that somebody like Manning does.

JD

 

Tribe Needs to Be Aggressive in Off Season

The Detroit Tigers have made the AL Central Division race a runaway, winning 12 games in a row, and 26 of their last 33 games. 

Even if the Indians had split the six games against the Motor City Kitties instead of losing all six, it still wouldn’t be a race. 

That means it is time to start looking at next season, once again, for the Indians’ front office. 

And they should not be taking the conservative route in terms of their off-season moves.

Really, they can’t do that anyway.  After making the deal for Ubaldo Jimenez at the July 31st trade deadline, the front office signaled they are in a win now mode. 

By making that deal, the organization has to follow-up by improving what has become a .500 team, and make it into a team that can get to the 90 win level in 2012.

First of all, that means increasing the budget for player salaries.  Because of the early success of this year’s team, attendance will be over a half million more than expected by management at the beginning of the season. 

Therefore, fans should be spared all of the rhetoric about the payroll being tied to the number of fans who enter Progressive Field. 

While we can all debate whether or not Jimenez is a number one starter, now that he is here and under Cleveland’s control through 2013, you have to build a team that can win while he is here.

Still, there are tough decisions for GM Chris Antonetti and president Mark Shapiro. 

They have to decide what to do with Grady Sizemore and his $8.5 million option for next season.  Sizemore produced in 2009, although not at the level he showed in the past, but the last two seasons have been washouts.

Injuries are the biggest cause for Sizemore’s problems, but when he has been healthy, he hasn’t done the job.  His swing has more holes than a screen door, and there doesn’t seem to be any change in his approach.

The centerfielder’s batting average is down to .223 and he has struck out a whopping 82 times in 276 plate appearances.  When he makes contact, he can drive the ball, as evidenced by his 32 extra base hits, which still ranks 4th on the team.

However, another thing to look at is that Sizemore hits left-handed and the Tribe figures to start two other outfielders that bat the same way in Michael Brantley and Shin-Soo Choo.

There is no question that this team needs someone who can provide some pop from the right side, and having available the cash from turning down Sizemore’s option would help in that regard.

The Indians also need to get another solid starting pitcher, because even including Josh Tomlin, the Tribe only has three reliable starters, and that includes Jimenez.

There are plenty of options available, but none can be considered proven commodities.  Fausto Carmona simply can no longer be counted on every fifth day.

Since Shapiro took over for John Hart, he has stressed a pitching rich approach, and when you think about it, Cleveland has produced two Cy Young Award winners in his tenure.

Still, you have to score runs to get to the playoffs, and the Indians need to do better in that area.  This is where the team needs to spend money.

Want proof?  Oakland, Seattle, Chicago, and Los Angeles all are among the teams with staff ERA’s under 4.00, and only the Angels have a chance at the post-season.

Trading for Ubaldo Jimenez is setting the tone for the next two seasons.  Ownership cannot make that trade and spend the winter not doing what is needed to win the division in 2012.

KM

Give Shurmur a Learning Curve

It’s amazing that Cleveland Browns’ fans, who spent much of the last two seasons complaining about Eric Mangini, now are complaining about his successor, Pat Shurmur.

The complaints came after the Browns’ 27-17 loss to Cincinnati in their opener, when the team was heavily penalized in the first quarter, and allowed a go ahead touchdown when the defense fell asleep on a quick snap by the Bengals.

There is no question that Shurmur is probably not happy about these events, but seriously, one week?

Plus, other fans want the team to go back to Mangini’s offense, feeling that the new coach passed too much in the opener.  They wanted Peyton Hillis and Montarion Hardesty to get more carries.

Let’s remember a few things.  First, it was Shurmur’s first game as an NFL head coach.  Yes, he made some mistakes, but let’s give him the benefit of the doubt, and assume he will correct those errors.

Second, this is a new offense, and surely, the coaching staff spent much of the off-season and training camp putting in a professional passing attack, something not seen in Cleveland for many years.

So, it’s natural to want to play with your new toy. 

Shurmur probably called too many pass plays and ignored the run a bit, but once again, let’s see what he does this week against an Indianapolis team, which struggled stopping the ground game this past week, adding to its history of coming up short in this area.

If the Browns don’t try to run the ball early and often against the Colts, then these people would have a valid criticism.

Remember that this is the first regular season game Pat Shurmur has been the head coach.  Why would you expect him to be on the same footing as coaches like Mike Tomlin, Marvin Lewis, and Andy Reid.

To be sure, all of those guys made mistakes early in their coaching careers, we just didn’t see them because they were in other cities. 

Look at perhaps the man considered the best coach in the NFL right now, Bill Belichick.  Do you think he made mistakes in his first go round as head coach?

Of course he did. 

He made errors in handling players, clock management, and in-game strategy.  He has publicly acknowledged learning greatly from his time in Cleveland as the coach of the Browns.

Belichick was too stubborn at the time to listen to people, so his growing pains took too long.

By contrast, you can be sure that Shurmur is meeting almost daily with team president Mike Holmgren, a Super Bowl winning coach, and The Big Show is going over any mistakes made by the rookie head coach, and giving him advice on what he should be doing.

If we are still seeing these mistakes and lapses of judgment in November and December, then people can start wondering about whether or not Pat Shurmur can be a good NFL head coach.

It is understandable that Browns’ supporters are impatient, with just one playoff appearance in the last 12 seasons.  However, you can’t run a guy out on a rail after just one game.

Did these people know everything there is to know about their jobs the first day they did it?  Of course not.

Give Shurmur some room to grow.  The fact that he didn’t name his starting quarterback right before kickoff should show he has potential to get better.

JD

Sloppy Play For Browns Equals 0-1

The Cleveland Browns got off to a slow start in their opener against the Cincinnati Bengals, and they finished poorly as well, leading to a 27-17 defeat at home.  Once again, for the 12th time in 13 seasons since returning to the NFL in 1999, the Browns are 0-1.

In between, the team played pretty well, overcoming an early 13-0 deficit set up by giving the Bengals excellent field position as a result of poor special teams play, to take a 14-13 halftime lead, which they extended to 17-13 early in the third quarter.

However, they couldn’t put their foot on the Bengals’ throat and allowed them to stay in the game with a less than aggressive attack, and then gave up fourth quarter touchdowns on a pair of blown defensive assignments.

The worrisome part of the 2011 edition of the Browns is their offensive line and it would be difficult to change that thought after watching this game.  Early false start penalties, two by guard Shawn Lauvao  put Cleveland in long yardage situations in the first quarter, and a horrible first punt by Richmond McGee gave Cincy great field position on their first three drives resulting in a 13-0 lead.

Josh Cribbs changed the momentum with a 51 yard kickoff return after that lead, and four plays later, the Browns were on the scoreboard after a 34 yard TD from Colt McCoy to TE Benjamin Watson. 

From then until the middle of the fourth quarter, Cleveland controlled the football game, forcing punts on seven consecutive Cincinnati possessions. 

Cleveland scored on its next possession on a 2 yard pass from McCoy to TE Evan Moore, but managed only one field goal the rest of the game.  That field goal came the first time the Browns had the ball after the half, meaning Cleveland had scored on three of their last four possessions. 

At that point, things were looking very good for new coach Pat Shurmur to get his first win as an NFL head coach.

The Browns tried to put the game away in the middle of the third quarter after stopping the Bengals.  A pass interference call gave Cleveland a first down on the Cincinnati 33, but a reverse to Cribbs lost three yards on first down, and McCoy was sacked on third down to force a punt.  That would be the closest the Browns would come to scoring for the rest of the game.

Except maybe for a punt late in the fourth quarter, with the Bengals leading 20-17.  Cribbs looked like he had some daylight on the return, but in blocking his man, rookie Greg Little ran into Cribbs, essentially tackling him on the CLE 44.  Without that incident, who knows how long the former Kent State product would have run.

The Bengals out gained the Browns on the ground, 139 yards to 83, but 39 for Cincinnati came on the game clinching run by Cedric Benson, so really the defense controlled the run. 

Cleveland didn’t get their ground game going, only attempting 26 runs while throwing the ball 40 times.  This despite having the lead for much of the game from the middle of the 2nd quarter until about five minutes left. 

McCoy was only sacked twice, but he was hurried throughout, probably causing shorter completions that Shurmur wanted in his version of the west coast attack.

On the flip side, the Browns had four sacks, but didn’t put consistent pressure on Bengal QB’s Andy Dalton and Bruce Gradkowski.  It was an uneven effort to say the least. 

Joe Haden showed last year was no fluke, breaking up several passes, and even though he was probably the victim on the pass to A. J. Green that gave the Bengals the lead, he wasn’t the only Cleveland player unprepared for the start of the play.

It is no doubt disappointing to the players and the fans that the Browns lost this football game.  It was indeed winnable, but too many mistakes spelled defeat. 

Now, it’s on the Indianapolis to take on the Peyton Manning-less Colts, who were spanked by Houston today.  Without question, they will be hungry for a win. 

Shurmur needs to clean up the mistakes and get the offensive line playing better.  Without improvement in that area, the new offense may not have a chance to succeed.

JD

Does Moneyball Work?

The commercials are all over television promoting the new movie Moneyball, which details the success of the Oakland A’s in the early 00’s. 

Oakland GM Billy Beane used a statistic based approach, featuring the use of on base percentage and slugging percentage to take a team from a small market and make it a contender.

The A’s won some division titles, but never got to the World Series, let alone winning one. 

Several other teams use similar approaches to building their clubs, and the Indians are among them.  Of those teams, only the Red Sox have ever won a World Series, and you can make the argument  their triumphs are dependent more on their large payroll than the “moneyball” approach.

A lot of this approach makes sense.  For example, having a leadoff man with a high on base percentage is perfect logic.

Carlos Santana is a player you might think is having a poor season because he’s hitting .235, but he gets on base almost 35% of the time, and his slugging percentage has been over .450 for most of the year.

He’s having a solid season.

However, there are things that the moneyball people overlook. 

One is baseball IQ.  Older baseball people used to call this “doing the little things”.  This includes things like hitting behind the runner, hitting a fly ball with a man on third and less than two out, and hitting the cut off man.

With power numbers down in the sport, these things are becoming more and more important. 

It’s an area the Cleveland Indians need a lot of improvement in.

A second area overlooked is making contact.  The “seamheads” will say a strikeout is just another out, the same as a flyball and groundout. 

These people revere the “three outcome player” (home run, walk, or strikeout).  Guys like Adam Dunn or Russell Branyan.  However, those guys aren’t run producers for the most part.  Their RBI totals are low compared to their home run totals.

Of course, the stat people undervalue RBI’s in general, saying it is dependent on the number of times you hit with men on base.

This argument does have some basis in fact, but can they explain why Manny Ramirez drove in more runs than Jim Thome when they played together with the Indians?

The reason is Ramirez put the ball in play, driving runners home with singles and outs. 

If you read this blog regularly, you know this is another area where the Tribe needs to get better in.

The stat based people have even influenced the way the sport’s major award are voted on.  Last year, Seattle’s Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award despite winning just 13 games. 

Yes, he had an ERA of 2.27, but isn’t the starting pitcher’s job to win games?

This year, many of those writers are thumping for Toronto’s Jose Bautista to win the AL MVP, although the Blue Jays have virtually the same record as the Indians.

Old school people would point out that although Bautista is having a marvelous season, Toronto could probably finish 4th without him.

The point is that statistics need to be looked at and taken for what they are.  Manny Acta overlooked them in watching Orlando Cabrera, but in that case the intangibles didn’t outweigh the lack of production.

But devaluing strikeouts and not looking at the baseball smarts of players shouldn’t be overlooked. 

Hopefully, the Cleveland Indians keep that in mind this off-season.

KM

Still No Playoffs, But Browns Will Improve

In a few days, the NFL regular season opens up with the now traditional Thursday night contest between the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers and the previous year’s winners, the New Orleans Saints.

As for the local team, the Browns will start playing for real on Sunday when the Cincinnati Bengals visit the lakefront. 

If autumn is coming in Cleveland, then fans are strangely optimistic about the Browns. 

This year, they have some right to be. 

For the first time in who knows how long, the front office and the coaching staff are on the same page.  They both want to win, and they both want to accomplish it in the same manner. 

You couldn’t say that when Eric Mangini was in charge, you couldn’t say it when Romeo Crennel was the coach and Phil Savage was the general manager.

Really, the only time you could say it since the team returned to the NFL in 1999 was when one guy held both jobs, like Butch Davis and in Mangini’s first year.

With a back loaded schedule that includes six winnable games in the first seven contests (Bengals, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, Seahawks, 49ers) , it says here the Brownies will finish the season 7-9 or 8-8.  And they could make the playoffs if they can win three or four divisional contests, which is difficult because four of the games are against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

The Browns have a QB in Colt McCoy that is perfectly suited for the west coast offense which new coach Pat Shurmur will run this season.  They will have a solid running game with 1000 yard rusher Peyton Hillis, who took basically no punishment in the pre-season to keep him fresh, and Montario Hardesty.

And the passing game will look like a legitimate NFL offense, which will make the performance of the young wide receiving crew look much better than they did in 2010.  McCoy will also exploit his very good tight end corps of Ben Watson and Evan Moore. 

The biggest question will be whether or not the offensive line can keep McCoy’s jersey clean, and more to the point, healthy.  The injury to G Eric Steinbach hurts, and T Tony Pashos needs to stay on the field, which hasn’t happened in the last two years.

It is said that the only thing worse than being a bad team is being a bad, old team.  Since the Browns were 5-11 last season they can be classed as a poor team.

And last year on defense, they had a lot of age with veterans like Shaun Rogers, Ben Coleman, David Bowens, and Eric Barton. 

That’s not to denigrate those players, several of whom played well for Cleveland last year.  It’s just not the way to build a team.  That has to be done with younger guys.

This season, the defense has just two players with 10 or more years of experience, CB Sheldon Brown and LB Scott Fujita.  So, this is a unit that should improve as the year goes on.

GM Tom Heckert rebuilt the defensive line by drafting DT Phil Taylor and DE Jabaal Sheard, one year after he changed the secondary by picking CB Joe Haden and S T.J. Ward in the draft, and acquiring Brown in a deal.

You would think next year the linebacking crew will be the object of Heckert’s revamping.

The Cleveland Browns are on the right track.  They are getting younger, building through the draft, and have a young quarterback who can lead the team in place.  They may not challenge for the playoffs this year, but they are no more than a year away. 

Browns’ fans can finally see light.  The chaos which surrounded the franchise since 1999 is finally being put in order.

JD

Is The Tribe’s Future Really That Bright?

After a tough loss to Kansas City, coupled with a comeback win by Detroit, the Cleveland Indians have dropped to 6-1/2 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central Division.  Barring a sweep by the Tribe this week, it’s likely that this race is over.

Many experts have talked about how this season was a year early, that 2012 was supposed to be the year Cleveland was supposed to be in the hunt for a post-season berth. 

Really, how true is that?

The Indians are tied for ninth in the AL in runs scored, and despite claims of a great pitching staff, they are tied for 8th in the league in ERA, meaning there is work to do on both sides of the equation.

Offensively, right now the Indians have two legitimate hitters in the lineup:  SS Asdrubal Cabrera and C/1B Carlos Santana.  You would think that RF Shin-Soo Choo will rebound from a poor ’11 season, and Michael Brantley will improve on a season that started strong. 

But where will any more improvement come from?

Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner have proven to be unreliable over the last three and four seasons, respectively.  The front office simply cannot count on them to boost the run production.

Rookies Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall could wind up playing 2B and 3B in ’12, but this season has not proven either to be a sure thing because of injuries (Kipnis) and inconsistent playing time (Chisenhall).  It says here that the latter should have been sent back to AAA at the beginning of August to play every day.

The organization has to decide what to do with Santana as well.  If he plays first, then that leaves light-hitting Lou Marson behind the plate.  That may be the correct move, but it really doesn’t help the offense.  If Santana stays behind the plate, then the Indians need a first baseman because it doesn’t appear that Matt LaPorta can hold down an everyday job.

And don’t forget the need for the solid right-handed bat, which the team has needed all year.  The organization craves a professional hitter that bats from the right side.  It looks like a trade would have to be made to bring one in.

Declining Sizemore’s option for next year (estimated at $9 million) would give the front office some money to play with in that pursuit.

On the mound, the strength is in the bullpen and anyone who knows anything about baseball knows that area is volatile from year to year.  So, you can’t really etch anyone of those names in stone.

In fact, Chris Perez could be a possible trade chip to fill some needs because Vinnie Pestano looks like he could close, and Cleveland does have some relief depth in the minors in LH Nick Hagadone, RHs Josh Judy, CC Lee, and Zach Putnam.

As for the starting rotation, right now, the Tribe has one guy they can really count on every fifth day in Justin Masterson, and perhaps another if Josh Tomlin is healthy, although he should be a back of the rotation guy. 

If you can tell me whether Ubaldo Jimenez and Fausto Carmona are going to pitch great when they take the hill, you should be setting odds in Las Vegas. 

As for the rest of the starters, David Huff has shown promise in 2011, but the Indians will need hurlers like Jeanmar Gomez, Zach McAllister, and Scott Barnes to be contributors next year, particularly if Carlos Carrasco misses 2012 with elbow surgery.

Cleveland has a promising future, but some of the organizational depth was dealt away to get Jimenez, and they didn’t find out if other young players could perform due to other things, mostly injuries.

Let’s not be so hasty to pencil the 2012 Tribe in as Central Division champs.

MW