First off, making any inferences about a baseball team after just 12 games isn’t a wise thing to do.

You have to look at the schedule because there is no way you could have played all of the good teams in your league after that amount of time.  And as we’ve said before, a better time to check is after the first 27 games of the regular season, when one sixth of the slate has been played.

After a dismal opening homestand in which they went 1-4, the Cleveland Indians have picked up the pace on their first trip of 2012, so far going 6-1 against Kansas City, Seattle, and Oakland.

This is where the schedule comes into play.  The teams regarded as the best in the American League coming into the season were the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, and Angels.  The Tribe has played zero games against those squads.

Still, the hitting has been better statistically to start the year with Cleveland ranking 3rd in the AL in runs scored.  However, a closer look shows that almost half of those tallies (32 out of 68) came in the three game series against the Royals. currently losers of seven straight.

The good news there is that KC doesn’t have the worst pitching in the league statistically.  In fact, their staff ERA ranks higher (9th) than the Indians (11th).

At this point though, the Tribe has cut down on strikeouts at this early juncture.  They rank 9th in the Junior Circuit, a big drop from the past few years when they ranked in the top three in the AL.

They also lead the league in walks, although outside of last season, they have been in the top half of the AL since 2008 in that category.  Shelley Duncan has been a surprise in this statistic, drawing 12 bases on balls in the first dozen games.

The only real bad strikeout to walk ratios on the club right now belong to Jason Kipnis (11 whiffs, 3 BB) and Jason Donald (10 K, 1 BB).  That’s outstanding.  Drawing walks drives up pitch counts and gets into the opponent’s bullpen, where the less talented pitchers are.

However, the starting pitching so far has been a bit of a disappointment, mostly because they have not been able to soak up their share of innings.  Cleveland starters have gone five innings or less in half of their appearances, although one of those was due to Jeanmar Gomez’s ridiculous ejection for protecting Shin-Soo Choo vs. the Royals.

This has put a strain on the bullpen, who for the most part has been up to the task.

Chris Perez rebounded from Opening Day to record five straight saves, and he has fanned five hitters in 6-2/3 innings.  Vinnie Pestano has done well, and newcomer Jairo Asencio has contributed.

One area of concern is Tony Sipp, who has allowed seven hits and three walks in 3-2/3 frames.  Sipp could go back to Columbus in favor of Nick Hagadone, when Asdrubal Cabrera returns from his grandfather’s funeral.

One thing that is concerning is the lack of swing and miss guys on the Tribe staff.  Cleveland ranks 11th in the league in striking out hitters, yet have issued the fifth most walks.  That doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season.

Granted, it’s only three starts, but Manny Acta needs Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin to give him at least six innings per start.  Ubaldo Jimenez had one good start (vs. Toronto), but in his last two, he has been inconsistent in the strike throwing department.  Derek Lowe’s had two good starts, and battled through a six walk outing to keep his team in the game.

Any success Cleveland will have in 2012 in based on good starting pitching, which so far hasn’t been there.

Still, at 7-5, it’s been a good start to the season, but it’s too early to get carried away, just like it would be too early to panic if they started 4-8.

Manny Acta would agree though, that it’s better to win early in the year, than to lose.

KM

Next week, the NFL Draft finally arrives.  Undoubtedly, this will creative a tremendous void in the programming of Cleveland sports talk shows, who will no longer be able to discuss the merits and problems involved if the Browns pick Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne, Justin Blackmon, or Ryan Tannehill.

There will be no more talk about trading down for more picks, or trading up to get yet another marquee talent.

To be sure, after the football draft, the discussion will shift to what the Cavaliers will do in late June in the NBA Draft.

With two picks in the first round, basketball fans in northern Ohio will alternately swoon or be irritated with the possibilities of getting Michael Kidd-Gilchrest, Brandon Beal, Andre Drummond, or Jeremy Lamb.

WKNR’s Greg Brinda once said the draft is like the Super Bowl for Cleveland sports fans.

That’s fine for now.  The Browns season doesn’t start for another five months, and the Cavs have just six games remaining before their campaign ends.

After the wine and gold make their pick in June, there should be more talk about draft picks.  It’s time for both teams to start winning and start making considerable progress right now!

For the Browns, it is ridiculous to contemplate another top ten draft pick in 2013.  After all, in the last several years, Cleveland has had the opportunity to pick  in the top ten four consecutive times.

Twice, they’ve traded the choice.  Last year, of course, dealing with Atlanta, who drafted WR Julio Jones in the 6th spot, and in 2009, when they made a deal with the Jets, who selected Mark Sanchez.

It has been four seasons since the last time the Browns were over the .500, which was when Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage led the team to a 10-6 record.

Mike Holmgren has already gone on record as saying improving to 6-10 in 2012 is not acceptable, so his football organization has to make a large turnaround to get close to being an 8-8 squad, one that is poised to make a playoff run in 2013.

So, no more talk from Browns’ fans about picking USC QB Matt Barkley with the #1 pick in next April’s draft.  It’s time to start taking steps, and giant ones at that toward not just respectability, but the NFL post-season.

The same is true for the Cavaliers, although the discussion is not as loud among their fans, it comes more from the media, who hope the wine and gold lose, and take joy in every defeat.  Games like last night’s in Detroit, doesn’t do the franchise any benefit, no matter if it improves the draft position.

GM Chris Grant will likely have a top five choice come late June, which will give him three picks in the first five the last two drafts combined.  He his a home run with the probable rookie of the year in PG Kyrie Irving, and he picked a solid power forward in Tristan Thompson.

It says here he needs to get a big time scorer in the top of this year’s draft.

The Cavaliers have already surpassed last year’s total of 19 wins in a lockout shortened season, so they have made progress.

However, next year, they better be in the mix for a playoff spot, especially since they play in the Eastern Conference, where a .500 record puts you in contention.

There has to be significant progress made during the next 12-14 months.  Since there are only 15 players on an NBA roster, getting a premier player is a huge step for a team, and getting Irving accomplishes that.

The fans of Cleveland sports teams love to discuss the future of the Indians, Browns, and Cavaliers.  That’s great.  However, a year from now, we better be talking about the present.  It’s time to stop pining for what may be and start winning.

MW

After starting the season 1-4, and the offense struggling mightily to put anything together, the Cleveland Indians made what some observers saw as a panic move, signing free agent OF/DH Johnny Damon to a contract.

It’s seems to be part of the grand experiment the Tribe is conducting, that is, seeing how many left-handed hitters in the lineup is too many.

The Damon deal seemed odd, not only because of the timing, but because GM Chris Antonetti is penciling in the veteran as sharing the LF job with Shelley Duncan, who is off to a good start.

It’s odd because the past few years Damon has done a lot of things on the baseball field, but playing OF wasn’t one of them.  He played just 35 games in the outfield with the Tigers in 2010, and a paltry 16 games in the field with Tampa Bay last season.

For a team which claims to emphasize defense, it is curious to put a 38-year-old with a weak arm in the field on a regular basis.  As for the DH spot, if Travis Hafner stays healthy (which is a big if based on the past few years), there doesn’t seem to be much time available there.

And if Aaron Cunningham is the player on his way out when Damon arrives, who is the backup CF?  Jason Donald?

There is no question Damon can contribute with the bat.  He had a 743 OPS last season, although for the first time in a while his on base percentage dropped under .350 (last time was 2003).  He did hit 16 HR with the Rays last season and did appear in 150 games, again though, mostly as a DH.

Can he maintain that level of health playing regularly in the outfield?

The only other argument on the signing, his defensive prowess being the first, is he brings yet another left-handed bat to the lineup.  Assuming he takes Duncan’s spot in LF, it would give Manny Acta seven left-handed batters and two switch-hitters in what would figure to be his regular lineup.

Can anyone else think of a lineup that dominant from one side of the plate?

Since the Indians play 76 games within the AL Central Division, it is interesting to see the make up of the other teams current starting rotations–

Detroit:  Justin Verlander (R), Doug Fister (R), Rick Porcello (R), Max Scherzer (R), Adam Wilk (L), Drew Smyly (L)
Chicago:  Jake Peavy (R), John Danks (L), Gavin Floyd (R), Chris Sale (L), Philip Humber (R)
Kansas City:  Bruce Chen (L), Luke Hochevar (R), Jonathan Sanchez (L), Luis Mendoza (R), Danny Duffy (L)
Minnesota:  Carl Pavano (R), Nick Blackburn (R), Francisco Liriano (L), Anthony Swarzak (R), Liam Hendriks (R)

Out of the 20 regular starters (not sure who will replace Fister in Detroit’s rotation for the time being), just seven are southpaws.  That would seem to be in the Indians favor.  However, a closer look shows five of those guys are mainstays in the rotation, and most have been historically tough on the Tribe.

The Indians showed research that lefty hitters are more successful at Progressive Field, but that may just be because their best hitters in recent seasons have been left-handed (Sizemore, Hafner, Choo, etc.) and also because outside of C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee, Cleveland hasn’t had real good lefty starting pitchers.

And neither of those guys has thrown a pitch in a Tribe jersey since the middle of the 2009 season.

It does seems like the Tribe is susceptible to tough southpaws, which was in evidence last week when Danks and Sale put the Cleveland bats to sleep.

Acta has no choice but use the left-handed bats against tough left-handed pitchers, but will have to mix in Jason Donald, Jose Lopez, and Cunningham where he can to balance the batting order.

One of the things to keep an eye on this season for the Indians is whether the left-handed experiment works.

MW

With the Cleveland Indians off to a slow start after the first home stand of the season, the debate on the North Coast centered on why fans were so quick to turn on the Tribe after just five games.

Attendance was terrible with back-to-back “crowds” of under 10,000 for the two weekday games against the White Sox.  Sure, the weather was nasty, one game was snowed out, but in other northern markets (like Detroit) plenty of people showed up for the game.

We can only speak for ourselves, but the real problem is the distrust in the Dolan ownership.

Most of the problem could be alleviated if Larry and Paul Dolan stopped talking, but that will likely never change.

For the people in our season ticket group, the last straw came when the Indians traded Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez near the 2009 trading deadline, a full year and a half before either could become free agents.

We called our account manager shortly thereafter and told them we would not be buying in 2010, despite having season tickets since 1993.

We decided that as long as the Dolan family wasn’t going to try to win, we were not going to spend our cash.

When the family announced the purchase of the Indians, Larry Dolan said something about not being satisfied with one World Series winner, he wanted multiple titles.  However, since that time, Cleveland has made just two post-season appearances (2001 and 2007), and has produced losing records in eight of the last ten years.

Still, it was the events of 2009 that have our group and many other fans peeved.

According to many reports, then GM Mark Shapiro was told to cut payroll, so he was forced to trade Lee, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and Martinez, who cried upon being dealt, even though they could have opened the 2010 season with the Tribe.

For Lee, the Indians received utility man Jason Donald, back up catcher Lou Marson, injured starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco, and the big prospect in the deal was right-hander Jason Knapp, who had shoulder problems at the time, and has been hurt most of the time he has spent in the Cleveland organization.

At least Shapiro received Justin Masterson in the Martinez deal with the Red Sox.

Still, could the Indians have put together a contending team in 2010 with one of the best pitchers in the game at the top of the rotation and a professional switch-hitting catcher/1B in the middle of their lineup?  Of course they could have.  However, they chose not to.

The reason the Indians gave for making the trade well before they had to was they could get more by guaranteeing a full season for each player for the team they were dealt to, thus being able to get more.  And Martinez is the type of player who would have been willing to stay with the Tribe for the long term.

As you can see, outside of Masterson, there wasn’t much of a bounty for the Indians.

Up until that point, the Indians had rebuilt from their power teams of the 1990’s, and produced a team that just missed the playoffs by one game in ’05, and went to the American League Championship Series in 2007, taking Boston to seven games.

Since the deal, Cleveland has wallowed under the .500 mark perpetually, although they had a good run early in the 2011 season before fading.

The perception of many fans changed forever with those two trades, and the recent finding of Forbes Magazine that the Indians made a $30 million profit last year only reinforces that skepticism.

And after contending for most of last year, GM Chris Antonetti basically did nothing during the off-season to fortify the 2012 Indians.

So when people wonder why there is a certain amount of apathy in Cleveland baseball fans, they need to look no further than 2009.

MW

The NFL Draft will take place two weeks from tomorrow.

Thank goodness because the subject of what the Cleveland Browns will do in the first few rounds is just about exhausted. 

Heck, even on the Indians’ home opener, sports talk shows in Cleveland had discussion as to who GM Tom Heckert should take in the selection meeting at the end of the month.

Should they take a running back, or is the #4 pick too early for one?  How about a wide receiver, can Justin Blackmon be the Browns answer to Cincinnati’s A. J. Green?  Is it too much of a reach to take Texas A & M quarterback Ryan Tannehill with the fourth pick?

Should the Browns trade down from #4?  Should they trade up from #22?

Soon, it will all be over.

We’ve been tempted by Tannehill, but in the end, what the Browns should do is pick Alabama RB Trent Richardson with the fourth pick in a couple of weeks.  Why?

Because as a running back, he can get more touches on offense than anyone else on the field, save for the guy playing quarterback.  And offense is where Cleveland needs the most help, by far.

OT Matt Kalil would be an intriguing pick if some team trades up to #3 to get Tannehill, probably Miami, but the Browns need playmakers.  A guy who the defense has to account for.

Kalil would strengthen the offensive line and give the team a pair of bookend tackles, but no matter how good a pairing of Joe Thomas and Kalil may be, they can’t put the ball in the end zone by themselves.

Richardson can touch the football 20 times per games on handoffs and another three to five time via short throws.  A productive running back will take a lot of pressure off QB Colt McCoy.

Lest you don’t think it matters, check out these statistics.  Keep in mind, McCoy’s overall passer rating was 74.6 last year, and his average yards per attempt was 5.9 for the season.

Here are the games where the Browns had their best success running the football in 2011:

Jacksonville –148 yards.  McCoy’s passer rating was 92.2 and his average yards per attempt was 8.3
Seattle–141 yards.  McCoy’s rating was 59.0 with 5.1 yards per throw
Cincinnati (2nd game)–134 yards on the ground.  McCoy:  67.2 passer rating, 4.4 yards/attempt
St. Louis–126 yards.  McCoy had 97.5 rating, averaging 8.1 yards/attempt
Indianapolis–106 yards.  Mc Coy:  97.3 rating and 6.6 yards per pass.

The games against the Jaguars, Rams, and Colts were McCoy’s best three games statistically on the year.  And while it is true that he had some clunkers with a running attack, he does have a better chance to play well when backed up with a solid ground game.

The Browns did gain more than 100 yards in two other contests, but those were games started by Seneca Wallace. 

The NFL is a passing league right now, without a doubt.  But if you don’t have an elite quarterback, then you better be able to run the football. 

That’s where Trent Richardson comes in.

If Richardson can be a very good back, not even saying he has to be elite, that will give defensive coordinators around the NFL something to game plan against. 

For most defenses, taking something away involves giving something up.  Perhaps, opponents will have to bring an extra man in the box to take away the run, and that will allow passing lanes for Pat Shurmur’s offense.

Getting Richardson may not make Colt McCoy a top ten passer, in fact, it probably won’t.

However, it will allow him to be better.  And if you aren’t getting Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, or another hot-shot college QB, having an improved McCoy is better than the one who played in 2011.

JD

Because Cleveland is by and large a football town, the early part of the baseball season gets fans going crazy one way or another.

When the Indians lost the first two games of the 2012 campaign in extra innings, fans were quickly jumping off any bandwagon that may have existed. 

People were blasting Manny Acta, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Vinnie Pestano, and virtually anyone else who wore a Cleveland uniform over the weekend.

It’s really silly because there are still 159 games left in the season.  Of course, we all know that baseball is a marathon not a sprint, and the Tribe has just barely taken the first few steps of the journey.

Heck, the Indians have a better record that the vaunted Yankees, Red Sox, and Atlanta Braves, who have all started out 0-3. 

We predicted a fourth place finish for Cleveland this year, so a good season isn’t expected, but three games shouldn’t make anyone start to panic or be concerned.

We don’t think Michael Brantley will hit .077, nor will Shin-Soo Choo bat .154 for the season.  As anemic as the Tribe offense has looked, they will be better than they showed in the three game set against Toronto.

However, it is a bit concerning right now that the offense has been far too dependent on the home run, considering no one considers Cleveland a power based team.

Right now, if there aren’t any long balls, there aren’t any runs being scored. 

That’s a big reason the Indians have batted in 36 innings so far this season and scored in only six of them. That doesn’t bode well for things to come.

Right now, you would have to look at the Tribe as a team with little power and little speed.  That isn’t a good mix if you want to score runs. 

Cleveland baserunners were thrown out on the basepaths all weekend. 

On Opening Day, Choo was thrown out at home and at second base.  Brantley was caught stealing after drawing a no out walk, and Cabrera was gunned down trying to advance on the pitch in the dirt.

Yes, they did go from first to third on the balls hit to right field, but only Jason Donald, pinch-running for Travis Hafner was able to steal a base.

On the flip side, it is doubtful the starting pitching will be as good as it has been in the first three games. 

Justin Masterson was magnificent in the opener, throwing eight innings, allowing just two hits, striking out ten.  The big right-hander is good, but he’s not going to do that in every start.

Nor is Ubaldo Jimenez going to pitch six hitless innings on a regular basis.  Derek Lowe is a veteran who will soak up innings, but he also was outstanding in his first start in a Cleveland uniform.

The point is you cannot make any judgments on a baseball team after three games.  Last year, the Indians lost their first two games, and then won 30 of the next 43 contests.

Baseball executive say you have to wait until 40 games are played before making any decisions.  That may be a little too patient, but don’t really look at records until a sixth of the season has been played (27 games).

That gives everyday players about 100 at bats, and starting pitchers will have five starts under their belt. 

So relax, and enjoy that baseball is back and being played on a daily basis. 

Have fun second guessing too, but realize it’s just a sliver on the entire picture that is the regular season.

KM

Right now, the Cleveland Cavaliers are an injury riddled group, and it is reflected in the win-loss column.

The wine and gold broke a nine game losing streak by beating Toronto 84-80 last night, and have fallen to the fourth worst record in the NBA, something all of the fans who promote losing to get a better draft pick have to be excited about.

Before the trading deadline, the Cavs’ five best players were Kyrie Irving, Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao, Ramon Sessions, and Alonzo Gee.  Right now, only two are playing, Jamison and Gee, and the former hasn’t been shooting the ball well, last night notwithstanding.  One can assume this is due to the absence of an experience point guard, because right now, D-League pick up Donald Sloan is getting the bulk of the minutes there.

Some idiots have questioned Byron Scott’s ability as a coach, failing to understand the Cavaliers stayed in the playoff hunt until the all-star game mostly because of Scott’s tutelage. 

Sure, fans have disagreements with every coach, but most of those come from not understanding the game of basketball. 

Still, thinking ahead to next fall, when Cleveland reports to training camp, there is likely to be about a 50% change in personnel.  Therefore, GM Chris Grant and Scott will have more of an opportunity to mold the team in their image.

Of the starting lineup that the coach used when everyone was healthy (Irving, Anthony Parker, Jamison, Gee, and Varejao), at least two of those players will be elsewhere at the start of next year.  Those two will be the eldest players, Parker and Jamison.

Jamison’s departure will be due to free agency, and will open up a starting spot for rookie Tristan Thompson at power forward.  Thompson’s averaging 8 points and 6 rebounds per night in a little under 23 minutes per game.  As a starter, he’s scoring 11 points and grabbing 7.3 boards per night.

Parker, also a free agent, will likely be replaced through the draft, probably with the wine and gold’s higher first round pick.  Cleveland needs to get a player who can step right in and contribute immediately at the #2 guard, because Varejao and Thompson should be solid up front, and the new backcourt mate for Irving will be able to pick up Jamison’s scoring.

It is probable that only one of the reserve shooting guards currently on the roster will remain.  Daniel Gibson plays solid defense and can still stroke the three-point shot when healthy, which isn’t all that often.  Lester Hudson is intriguing, and Manny Harris hasn’t played well when Scott has given him the opportunity.

At forward, Omri Casspi will likely return, but only because Grant can’t get comparable value for him.  Luke Harangody has spent most of the year in Canton, and will have to catch on with another team for 2012-13.  Luke Walton will have his salary for ’12-’13 and his expiring contract used in some sort of trade.

With Ryan Hollins already gone, Scott has went with Thompson, really a power forward, at center because he’s lost faith in Samardo Samuels and Semih Erden.  Of the two, Samuels is more likely to be back, if only because he shows some toughness and a decent shooting touch, and also because he should have been a senior on Louisville’s Final Four team.

Look for Grant to add another veteran big man to the mix, and rumors have circulated that one target in free agent Omer Asik, currently with Chicago (3.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 13 minutes).

That leaves the following keepers:  Irving, Gee, Thompson, Varejao, Casspi, Samuels, and maybe Sloan and Hudson.  That’s eight players, meaning a little less than half the roster will be new players. 

That means a summer of change for the Cavaliers.  And it will be a key summer because with two first round picks and salary cap space, Grant and Scott can lay the foundation for the next playoff team in Cleveland.

JK

Since we talked about the fortunes of the Indians earlier this week, we decided to look at how the rest of baseball shapes up for 2012 with our fearless predictions:

AL EAST:  1.  New York, 2. Tampa Bay, 3. Boston, 4. Toronto, 5. Baltimore

The Yankees weakness last year was their starting pitching and they’ve added Hiroki Kuroda in free agency and Michael Pineda in a trade with Seattle.  They are aging offensively, but should have enough to win.  Tampa Bay is adding a likely rookie of the year candidate Matt Moore to their starting rotation.  Boston has the potential to be a train wreck with Bobby Valentine in charge.  Toronto is good, but their in the wrong division, although if they jumped ahead of Boston it wouldn’t be a surprise.  The Orioles languish once again.

AL CENTRAL:  1. Detroit, 2. Kansas City, 3.  Chicago, 4. CLEVELAND, 5. Minnesota

The Tigers got one of the biggest prizes of the off-season in Prince Fielder, and should win again, although it will be closer than in 2011.  The Royals have oodles of young talented hitters coming up, so they will score runs, the pitching is still suspect.  The White Sox will get a bounce back year from Adam Dunn, and they still have decent starting pitching.  The Twins have to stay healthy (Mauer and Morneau in particular) if they want to stay in the race.

AL WEST:  1.  Texas, 2. Los Angeles, 3.  Oakland, 4. Seattle

This division may have the league’s two best teams and the two worst.  Texas has a solid lineup that can produce runs in their bandbox, and have power arms in the rotation to help combat the park.  The Angels have Albert Pujols, who will find the AL a little tougher than the NL, but the Halos rotation is loaded with Dan Haren, Jerad Weaver, Ervin Santana and C. J. Wilson.  The A’s are looking forward to find their way to San Jose.  Seattle can’t hit, and Ichiro Suzuki started showing his age last year.

WILD CARDS:  Tampa Bay and Los Angeles

NL EAST:  1.  Philadelphia, 2.  Atlanta, 3. Washington, 4.  Miami, 5. New York

The Phillies hitting may be showing some age, but their rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels will pitch them to another division title.  The Braves will get a bounce back year from Jason Heyward and still are solid on the mound.  The Nationals have some big time young talent (Zimmerman, Strasburg, Harper) and will improve.  The Marlins have potential, but need to prove it on the field.  The Mets have started to rebuild.

NL CENTRAL:  1.  St. Louis, 2.  Milwaukee, 3. Cincinnati, 4. Chicago, 5. Houston, 6. Pittsburgh

The defending world champions replaced Pujols with Carlos Beltran and get former 20 game winner Adam Wainwright back.  Milwaukee lost Fielder, but still has a strong starting rotation.  The Reds are going for it, getting Mat Latos from San Diego, but pitching in their hitting friendly park will hurt him.  The Cubs are starting another rebuilding process with Theo Epstein in charge.  The Astros young players will surprise.  The Pirates’ progress hits a speed bump.

NL WEST:  1.  Los Angeles, 2. Arizona, 3. San Diego, 4. San Francisco, 5. Colorado

The Dodgers have new ownership, the NL’s best player (Matt Kemp) and the best pitcher (Clayton Kershaw).  They’ll have the financial means to add talent at the trading deadline.  The Diamondbacks will get some fall back in numbers from some of the guys who helped them win last year.  The Padres are better than many think.  The Giants have great pitching, but can’t score runs.  The Rockies can score, but their pitching is very young (save for 49-year-old Jamie Moyer).

WILD CARDS:  Atlanta and Milwaukee

MW

Last season, the Cleveland Indians led the AL Central Division for a little over three months before being surpassed and then blown away by the Detroit Tigers in August. 

They wound up the season 15 games behind the Tigers.

Then, in the off-season, the front office basically did nothing to shore up the weakness on the team.  Last year’s Indians finished 9th in the AL in runs scored and 10th in ERA.

They added Derek Lowe to the starting rotation, but lost Roberto Hernandez, and offensively, they did nothing to improve a hitting attack that badly needed some right-handed hitting.

It is entirely possible for the Indians to catch lightning in a bottle if an awful lot of things go their way, but there are too many question marks to think the Tribe will make the playoffs this season.

We’re predicting a fourth place finish behind the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox, and around 73-75 victories.

In the American League, you need seven good hitters in your lineup to score enough runs to win.  Right now, Cleveland has five:  SS Asdrubal Cabrera, RF Shin-Soo Choo, C Carlos Santana, DH Travis Hafner, and 2B Jason Kipnis. 

The other four regulars (1B Casey Kotchman, 3B Jack Hannahan, CF Michael Brantley, and LF Shelley Duncan) simply do not do enough with the bat on a consistent basis. 

Out of those four, Brantley has the best chance to make a quantum leap to become a quality offensive player, but he needs to improve his on base percentage in order to do so.

If two of those four produce (or are replaced by quality hitters) then the Indians may be able to score enough runs to win in the American League.

The pitching staff is said to be the strength of the team, but the statistics say otherwise.  Outside of Ubaldo Jimenez, there isn’t any swing and miss stuff in the starting rotation, and certainly Jimenez is the key to the success of the rotation.

Since being acquired for the cream of the organization’s pitching prospects in late July, the big right-hander has been painfully inconsistent. 

If he starts to resemble the guy who won 19 games for Colorado in 2010, the Indians will be contenders.  If he languishes around the .500 mark and takes 100 pitches to get through six innings, then it will be a tough season for Cleveland.

Justin Masterson should be able to build on a solid 2011 campaign, but the biggest problem most of the starters will face could be lack of run support.

Lowe should be able to soak up innings and keep his team in games on most nights, and Josh Tomlin’s success is based on his pinpoint control. 

We’ve always liked Tomlin, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he finished with an ERA near or over 5.00 because he doesn’t have the greatest stuff in the world.

The bullpen was the strength of last year’s team and allowing for the instability of relief pitchers, should be again.  Hopefully, Chris Perez’s elbow soreness from last year lowered his strikeout rate, and not a sign of decline.

Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, and Rafael Perez have a track record of success, although expect Joe Smith to not be as good as he was in 2011.

The starters need to go deep into games to prevent the bullpen from being overused.

If the Indians don’t play well and fall out of the race early, it will probably mean Choo will be traded as he will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and Scott Boras is his agent.

That’s just something else to look forward to.

There are just too many question marks surrounding this team to think they can come close to a 90 win season.

Hopefully, we’re wrong, but it’s tough to feel optimistic about the 2012 Cleveland Indians.

MW

In spite of all of the support given to Colt McCoy this week by coach Pat Shurmur, the fact remains the Browns keep trying to replace him.

Even the coach’s comments were guarded, saying McCoy was the Browns’ starting quarterback for the moment. 

Don’t think for a minute that Cleveland would love to find another passer between now and the end of the season.

So, it comes down to talent evaluation, and your trust that GM Tom Heckert can make the correct call in bringing players in.  With 13 picks in the selection process, if he hits on most of his choices, the team will get a huge windfall of talent.

That said, if the Browns think Texas A & M quarterback Ryan Tannehill can be very good in the NFL they should pick him with the fourth overall pick, although if they could trade down to #6 or #7 and pick up an extra pick, that would be fine as well.

The objections to Tannehill don’t hold a lot of merit.  Again, if Heckert, Shurmur, and new offensive coordinator Brad Childress think he’s the real deal, then they need to put him in a Cleveland uniform.

The first objection is that the Browns need to take someone who will be on the field for the season opener.  Why?  They’ve picked plenty of players over the years who couldn’t start in the opener.

In fact, with another first round pick at #22, this is the perfect time to take him.  They have that choice plus a high second round pick to get two players who can start immediately.

Another objection is that Tannehill is the third best quarterback in this year’s draft.  Do you know who was the third best QB in 2006?  That would be the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger, who by the way, has won two Super Bowls.

Heck, Dan Marino was the sixth passer taken in the 1983 draft.  The position ranking is meaningless once the games start.  You are judged by how you play.

The fact is the best quarterbacks in the NFL come from the first round.  If you made a list of the top players at the most important position on the field, you will find most are taken in the opening round. 

That doesn’t mean all first round picks turn out to be great QBs, but the good ones are taken there.  And Tannehill was judged by many talent gurus to be a first round pick, but more often than not, later in the round.

However, Miami is known to want the former Aggie, so Cleveland has to stay ahead of them at #8.  It would be nice if Heckert could nab Tannehill at #22, but it doesn’t look possible. 

So, if the Browns think he’s their guy, they have no choice but to take him in the top ten.

There’s no question it’s a risk, but then again all picks that high have the potential to be huge busts.  Remember Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren?  The former had injury problems, but getting virtually nothing out of those picks still haunts the franchise.

But Cleveland needs a franchise quarterback if they are ever going to make the leap into playoff contention.  McCoy’s a nice player, but he’ll never be an elite player at the position.

The point is this, Browns’ fans can make a million excuses not to take Ryan Tannehill, but they’ll rip the front office if he becomes an All Pro. 

It comes down to talent evaluation like everything else in professional sports.  If Tom Heckert thinks Tannehill can be great, they have to pull the trigger and make sure he winds up in Cleveland.

JD