Is The Tribe Bullpen A Liability?

Before the season started, and we predicted an AL Central Division title for the Cleveland Indians, one of our reservations was the bullpen.

Was it good enough to put the Tribe over the top.

Watching the games unfold, the relief corps has sprung its share of leaks.

Early in the year, Bryan Shaw was knocked around like a pinata, and you had to wonder if the heavy workload he has had over the past three seasons had caught up to him.

Cody Allen gave up two walkoff wins in one week, a seven day span that saw Cleveland lose five contests in a six game span by a single tally.

Now, Shaw and Allen seem to have returned to their norm and Zack McAllister, the other reliever Terry Francona has entrusted in the late innings is scuffling.

Our thought was the Cleveland bullpen walks too many hitters and gives up too many home runs.

Looking at statistics, that really isn’t the case.

The Tribe ‘pen has allowed 13 dingers to date, but that ranks 18th in the major leagues.  As we have seen, the Cincinnati Reds lead in this dubious stat, giving up an unbelievable 33 circuit clouts to date.

Cleveland’s total is less than the vaunted Yankee bullpen, but the relief corps allowing the least bombs are the Mets and White Sox (each seven), while the Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Royals, Dodgers, and Red Sox have allowed nine.

A year ago, Tribe relievers allowed the fewest homers in the American League.

In terms of walks, the Indians’ relievers have allowed the 14th most walks (48).  Again, Cincinnati’s gang of gas cans have walked a whopping 85 hitters thus far.

The five bullpens allowing the fewest free passes are Houston, the Yankees, Washington, Toronto, and Detroit.

The Indians were tied for 5th in all of baseball last season in allowing walks.

The Tribe’s bullpen is also 14th in ERA and 20th in strikeouts.

So, although there are far worse bullpens in the big leagues, there is also no doubt Cleveland’s relievers are not performing up to the standards of last season.  There has been a regression.

Francona’s plan in close games in to use McAllister in the 7th, Shaw in the 8th, and Allen in the 9th.  Do you know how many times he has used them that way and all three gave him a scoreless inning?

Once, on April 6th, the second game of the season and the Tribe’s first win.  It hasn’t happened since.

McAllister has allowed 14 hits and struck out 16 batters in 14-2/3 innings, but he’s walked six hitters.

Shaw has given up 15 hits and fanned 19 batters in his 17 frames, but he has walked seven and allowed four homers.

Allen has allowed a scant 12 hits in 18-2/3 innings striking out 20, but he’s given 11 free passes and served up three bombs.

And Jeff Manship seems to be regressing to his career norm (5.20 ERA), giving up 14 hits and six bases on balls in 11-2/3 innings.

Perhaps it is time to give Joba Chamberlain (0.66 ERA), Tommy Hunter, and Dan Otero, who saved last night’s win some chances in higher leverage situations.

The margin for error in the American League is very slim because there aren’t any dominant teams, nor are there any bad squads.

Getting the bullpen back to the level of the last couple of years could be what puts the Indians ahead of the pack in the Central Division.

KM

 

A Look At Cavs-Raptors Matchup

And then there were four…

The NBA playoffs started what seems to be eons ago with 16 teams in the tournament, and now we are down to just a quartet, and the Cleveland Cavaliers are one of those teams.

Tonight, the Cavs and Raptors open the Eastern Conference Finals at Quicken Loans Arena.

The two teams met three times in the regular season with the Raptors winning two of them, although Cleveland’s starting point guard in one of the losses was Jared Cunningham, because both Kyrie Irving and Matthew Dellavedova were out nursing injuries.

Remember that the Raptors finished one game behind Cleveland for the best record in the East, and they also have an all star backcourt in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.

Toronto is one of the league’s best shooting teams from three point range, with the 5th best percentage in the league at 37%.

The also take a ton of free throws, ranking third in the NBA in that department.  LeBron James alluded to their shooters making a lot of pump fakes and that Cleveland defenders must stand their ground.

Despite those numbers, the Raptors rank 13th in the league in scoring (the Cavs are 8th), so Toronto doesn’t play as fast as the wine and gold, something Tyronn Lue’s club will try to take advantage of, pushing the tempo.

Defensively, the Raptors rank one spot above the Cavs in points allowed per game, giving up a tenth of a point per contest less than the Cavaliers.

They do rank 5th in field goal percentage against, but they are second worst in the league in defending the three point shot.

So, if the Cavs want to get to the basket they will need to do so in transition because Toronto is going to do what the Hawks did, pack the paint, and allow their opponents to beat them from outside.

Of course, that didn’t work for Atlanta.

The Raptors are a little more physically imposing as the Hawks are, especially if Jonas Valanciunas can play in the series.  If we can, they have three solid inside defenders in Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, and Luis Scola.

They also have DeMarre Carroll, who has given LeBron James more trouble than most defenders.

The Cavs can counter these inside presences by using Channing Frye to draw the big men away from the hoop, and you may see some Timofey Mozgov to bother the Raptors’ bigs defensively.

Remember that until he was hurt, Valanciunas was probably Toronto’s best player in the Miami series, so he can be a force.

As has been a constant during these playoffs, a big key for Cleveland defensively will be stopping penetration, particularly by Lowry.  This means once again all eyes are on Irving, who has been much better in the post-season on the defensive end.

Two other factors could come into play in this series. One would be fatigue.  The Raptors have played 14 games since the regular season ended, while Cleveland has played eight.  With the extra intensity involved in playoff games, you have to wonder if the Cavs’ fresher legs give them an advantage.

The other thing is the satisfaction level of Toronto.  Are they happy with getting to the conference finals for the first time in their history?  Sometimes your goal isn’t what you think it is.

If the Cavs continue to play like they did in the first two rounds, they will be Eastern Conference champions again.  There isn’t any reason why that level of play cannot continue.

JK

 

Does Tribe Need To Exercise More Patience With Injuries?

We were hoping against hope that Michael Brantley’s shoulder was fine when he was activated from the disabled list at the end of April.

Unfortunately, history was not on our side.

When Brantley came back, manager Terry Francona said the outfielder would play two days in a row, then get a day off.  This course of action was followed until the Detroit series last week, when the skipper wrote Brantley’s name in the lineup four straight days and in five of the six games on the homestand.

It was after the plan was altered that soreness we appeared in Dr. Smooth’s shoulder, which resulted in putting him back on the disabled list yesterday.

Again, we were hoping that Brantley recovered sufficiently from his surgery to allow him to have a normal season, but recent history should have taught us something different.

In 2014, Jason Kipnis pulled an oblique muscle on April 29th.  He was coming off his first All-Star Game appearance in 2013, and although his batting average wasn’t great at that time (.239) he had an OPS of 763, thanks to a .360 on base percentage.

The second baseman made it back to the lineup on May 28th, and struggled for the most part the rest of the season.

The highest his batting average hit the rest of the year was .261 (his career mark is .272) and he wound up hitting just .240, with 6 HR and 41 RBI.  He knocked in his last run of the season on August 29th.

And yes, he did play regularly in September.

Yan Gomes was coming off a year where he won a Silver Slugger Award as the best hitting catcher in the American League when he injured his knee on April 11th.

Gomes was struggling at the plate to that point in the season, but the campaign was only five games old.

The catcher returned to the lineup on May 24th, didn’t hit a home run until his 10th game back, and wound up hitting just .231 for the season with 12 HR, a drop from 21 the year prior.

His numbers prior to the All Star Game were 234/327/560, while after the break, they were closer to his career norms at 289/435/725.

Were both players rushed back too soon?

First, we are sure both players said they were ready.  We do not think the Indians’ front office and training staff pressured either Kipnis, Gomes, or Brantley to get back in the lineup.

All three are the team’s leaders, and probably feel obligated as leaders to get back on the field.

Since those players are keys to the Indians’ offense, having them out there at less than 100%, or let’s say 80% doesn’t allow them to hit like they normally do, and that creates even a bigger burden on the ballclub.

Wouldn’t it be better to have them take an extra two weeks to get even more rehab and more healthy before putting them right back in the starting lineup?

Let’s say the Tribe waited an extra couple of weeks with Brantley, had him get more at bats in minor league games and activated him on May 15th (today).  Could he play the rest of the year like Michael Brantley?  And wouldn’t the Indians be better off if he could?

We will never know, but it behooves the organization to get the leftfielder back to 100% when he does return, because his bat is so important to the team.

They say those who don’t learn from history are destined to repeat it.  The Indians aren’t learning from the mistakes of the past.

MW

 

Analyzing The Tribe’s Veteran Signings

During the hot stove season, the Cleveland Indians decided to try to improve their team by signing some veterans to one year contracts.

Over the years, we have not been thrilled by this strategy for several reasons, mostly that it shows the organization doesn’t trust their young players.

And we also feel that part of the reason for the sluggish starts by the club over the past few seasons is they spend the first 40 games seeing if these veterans have anything in the tank, and a lot of times, bringing up the young players gives the Tribe a spark.

This season doesn’t seem to be any different.

While Mike Napoli has been productive despite striking out a lot, he has a .504 slugging percentage and leads the team in home runs and RBIs, the other vets are struggling.

Rajai Davis, 35-years-old,  has an on base percentage of .265 and an OPS of 620.  You would have to think a player like Tyler Naquin could do at least that well.

We realize Naquin’s numbers may not hold up with more at bats, but our biggest concern with the rookie offensively was that he wasn’t drawing walks.  Guess what?  Neither does Davis, who has walked just five times on the year.

Making the Davis issue worse is Terry Francona continues to hit him in the leadoff spot, despite a career .315 on base average.

Juan Uribe (age 37) was brought in because the management didn’t feel comfortable using Giovanny Urshela at 3B to start the season.

However, Uribe thus far has demonstrated no pop in his bat, with a slugging percentage of .306 and an OPS of 619.  Uribe started the year playing pretty much everyday at the hot corner, but is starting to lose playing time to Jose Ramirez at that position.

For the record, Urshela had a 608 OPS last season while battling injuries, and figured to improve with experience.

Thirty eight year old Marlon Byrd is the other veteran signed by the Indians, he inked his deal during spring training.  Byrd has been decent, with a 684 OPS and hasn’t been the hammer vs. left handed pitching he was purported to be.

We wouldn’t have a problem seeing him a couple of days per week as long as he is still contributing.  He seems to get one big hit per week.

We understand that the season is just 31 games old, and we recognize this constitutes a small sample size.

We also know the American League playoff race will probably be very close all year long and one game here or there could make a big difference.

The Cleveland Indians feel they are a contending team, which is probably the reason they made the moves to sign these players, but being a contender also means there is a short leash for players who aren’t getting it done.

With Michael Brantley’s availability up in the air right now, Terry Francona can’t use his considerable patience hoping that Davis and Uribe will get it together soon.  If they aren’t hitting, the lineup is full of holes.

Our fear when the Tribe signs this type of player is what will happen if they aren’t swinging the bat well.  Tito gives veterans the benefit of the doubt, so his inclination is to keep giving them at bats with the hope they will snap out of their slumps.

He can’t wait much longer.

And as for a possible release of either player, remember they are on one year deals, so there is no long term investment in Davis or Uribe.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on both players through the end of May to see what the front office may do.

The bigger question here is why not give the young players the first shot at the job, and bring the veterans in if they don’t work out?

KM

 

 

Are The Cavs A Three Point Team?

After the barrage of three point shots the Cleveland Cavaliers made in their Eastern Conference semi-finals sweep of the Atlanta Hawks, people have been asking if Tyronn Lue’s squad has decided that it is better to live and die with the outside shot.

Certainly, the game has changed greatly since the advent of the three point line in the late 70’s when the NBA took it from the ABA.

At the beginning it was used more as a means to catch up in a game, to give you a chance to tie a game up when you were losing by three late in a contest.

Now, pretty much every team in that plays the sport embraces the long distance shot.

We saw the change coming in the late 80’s/early 90’s at the high school and AAU levels, when we saw players pulling up for threes off of fast break opportunities.  Until then, you were taught to get the easy basket, to get the ball as close as possible to score.

When you think back in Cavaliers’ history, the “Miracle of Richfield” teams were based on the perimeter scoring of guys like Campy Russell, Bingo Smith, Dick Snyder, and Austin Carr.

They may not have been shooting from a three point line distance, but their ability to make jump shots consistently was a key to their success.

So, have the current Cavs developed into a team that lives and dies by the three?  We would say no.

One of the biggest reasons for all of the open threes converting by Cleveland in the Atlanta series was that the Hawks were determined not to get beat in the paint.  They blitzed Kyrie Irving to force the ball out of his hands so he couldn’t drive, and there was certainly a huge amount of traffic when LeBron James tried to get the ball to the basket.

On the other hand, Lue’s crew shot 138 threes in the four game sweep of the Pistons, compared to the 152 they hoisted against the Hawks.  Those numbers are pretty comparable.

In the Warriors first round series vs. Houston, they attempted 144 shots from behind the arc, an average of almost 29 per game.  The Cavaliers averaged 34.5 per contest in their four game sweep.

Golden State is averaging 31 threes per game in the second round series against Portland, compared to Cleveland’s 38.5 in the whitewashing of Atlanta.

That would seem to make the wine and gold being more of a long distance shooting team than the squad who seemingly invented the style, the defending champions.

It would probably surprise you to know the Warriors only had two players who averaged more than four three point shots per game:  Stephen Curry (a whopping 11.2/game) and Klay Thompson.

The Cavaliers have four players who shoot from behind the line more that four times a game on average:  JR Smith (6.6), Kevin Love (5.7), Kyrie Irving (4.9), and Channing Frye (4.4).  James is close at 3.7 per game during the regular season.

The Cavs are following the “analytics” that show a three point shot is more efficient than a long two point attempt.

So, the answer is yes, the Cleveland Cavaliers are most definitely a team relying on the three point shot.

Our fear is that when the long distance shot isn’t falling, which hasn’t happened in the playoffs yet, they will forget to attack the hoop.

Of course, if you have four or five players who shoot it from out there regularly, what are the chance all of them will be cold.

That’s what Tyronn Lue and the Cavs are banking on.

JK

 

Tribe Positives and Concerns Over First 27 Games.

The Cleveland Indians hit the 1/6th mark of the season with a 14-13 record.  They didn’t have the great April they needed to get casual fans revved up about them, but they didn’t bury themselves either.

And that can be done during the season’s first month, just ask the Minnesota Twins.

The biggest problem for the Tribe is the Chicago White Sox, who have ridden excellent pitching to take a five game lead in the AL Central.

Of course, they is a long way to go to make up that deficit.

Anyway, here is what we see as positives over the first 27 games, and also, things were are concerned about.

POSITIVES

Nobody doubts the talent of Francisco Lindor, but right now, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of a sophomore slump.

The 22-year-old is hitting .324 (814 OPS) thus far and is making a defensive gem on a nightly basis.

If you had Josh Tomlin as the staff leader in wins before the season started, you were in the minority.  But the right hander sits at 5-0 with a 3.72 ERA and is showing remarkable control as usual with a 19 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio.

It seems like over the last few seasons, one starting pitcher makes a step toward elite status, and this year it is Danny Salazar following in the footsteps of Corey Kluber (2014) and Carlos Carrasco (2015).

Salazar has allowed just 18 hits in 37-2/3 innings, while striking out 43 batters.  Yes, his walks are high (16), but for the most part, he has been dominating each time he takes the mound.

The Indians have been searching for a right handed power bat for years and years, and they may now have one in Mike Napoli.  Yes, he strikes out a lot, on pace for close to 200 whiffs on a 500 at bat season, but he also has six homers and 20 RBI.

His history says the strikeouts will taper a bit, and he does see a lot of pitches, but he has a chance to belt more than 25 bombs this season.

CONCERNS

The bullpen still scares us and we know that Bryan Shaw has pitched better lately.  Terry Francona likes to use Zack McAllister in the 7th, Shaw in the 8th, and Cody Allen in the 9th if the starting pitcher can only give him six innings.

You can probably count the game where each has provided a clean inning in the same game on one hand.

McAllister started great, but has struggled his last few outings.  Shaw was a mess early on, and Allen still seems to go through periods where he can’t throw strikes.

Maybe Tommy Hunter can provide a lift here.

Yan Gomes is also having a hard time at the plate, hitting just .176 (541 OPS).  Gomes has walked just four times, compared to 22 punch outs.

He never has walked a lot, and you have to wonder if many the word is out that you don’t have to throw him a strike to get him out.

He also needs to start taking the outside pitch to right centerfield.

Jason Kipnis’ diminishing contact is also troubling.  He has almost struck out as much as Napoli.  His career high was 143 in ’13, but right now, he is on pace to fan over 160 times.

Our last concern is the usual veteran problem.  How long of a rope does Francona give some of these guys.

Juan Uribe has an OPS of 652.  Rajai Davis’ is 690, and Lonnie Chisenhall’s is 626.  Under 700 isn’t very good.  The team already sent out Tyler Naquin who had a 753 OPS (.315 batting average) to the minors.

When you are a contending team, which the Indians are, you can’t wait too long to replace players who aren’t producing.

Francona needs to use Jose Ramirez more, because he has been productive (783 OPS), and he needs to leave Carlos Santana in the leadoff spot. We know it is a small sample size, but Cleveland is 8-1 when Santana leads off.

He walks a lot, and has already led off two games with home runs.

Overall, the offense has made a big improvement, ranking 4th in the AL in runs scored per game, and the pitching is starting to pick it up, ranking 7th in ERA.

Again, our biggest concern is the bullpen.  With some improvement over the first 27 games in that department, the Indians could have been 17-10 instead of 14-13.

MW

Game 3 Won’t Be Easy For Cavs

After last night’s blowout victory at Quicken Loans Arena by the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Atlanta Hawks, fans seem to be not only regarding the Hawks as a speed bump on the way to a title.

Not to be a wet blanket, but we believe Friday night’s game could be the sternest test the wine and gold have faced in the playoffs thus far.

Mike Budenholzer’s team was thoroughly embarrassed yesterday.  He pulled his starters toward the end of the third quarter.

Despite the lopsided win yesterday, and the nine straight victories by Cleveland over the last two seasons, the Hawks aren’t the Philadelphia 76ers.  They won 60 games last season and won 48 this year.

And if they have any pride at all, and we believe they do, they have some pro’s pros over there in Paul Millsap and Al Hoford, they will come out Friday night and fight on their home floor to get back into the series.

TNT’s Charles Barkley hammered the attitude of the Hawks as well, basically saying that Atlanta’s players lost their fight after halftime, when they needed to set a tone for game three.

Our guess is the series will take a physical tone too, especially from the home team, because they will be playing angry.  They have to be sick and tired of the Cavs beating them, particularly in the playoffs.

This doesn’t mean the Cavaliers won’t win, because at this point, Cleveland has to be in the heads of the Hawks.  They have to wonder what they have to do to defeat the number one seed in the East.

All we are seeing is that last night’s game was probably an anomaly, the Cavs aren’t winning by more than 20 points again in the series.

Since we don’t take anything for granted, fans shouldn’t think for a minute that if Cleveland advances to the conference finals, that will not be a cakewalk either.

The fans need to slow their roll a tad.

The guys wearing the wine and gold uniforms are saying the correct things and the supporters of the squad should listen.

JR Smith said it right after the game.  All the Cavs did was hold the home court, and now they have to go on the road for the first time in the series and win in Atlanta.  They weren’t sending the NBA a “message”, they were just doing what they were supposed to do.

It is understandable that the fans are getting excited.  The Cavs are the only team that hasn’t lost a playoff game, and through six post-season games, their outside shooting is on point.

Last night’s 25 three point makes is proof of that.

But remember that for the most part, NBA players have pride and they don’t like to be embarrassed.  That’s why we think it won’t be easy on Friday night, that’s all.

Now, if the Cavs can overcome the Hawks’ emotion in game three and come out with a victory, this series won’t come back to Cleveland.

Atlanta likely will not have anything left.

Remember, every playoff game is different.  Friday night will be no exception.

JK

Grading Browns Draft? Stupid To Do Now

No one can evaluate how the Cleveland Browns did in the NFL draft for several years.  Anyone who wants to tell you differently is insane.

All of the analysts who rank the drafts for each team are doing so based on how they ranked each player prior to the selection process.

For example, if the writer/analyst liked Corey Coleman and let’s say, Carl Nassib, then they would probably say the Browns had a very good draft.

If they didn’t like those guys, then they are panning Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta for not taking Laquon Treadwell with the 15th overall pick.

It really is that simple.

That’s why you see a large disparity of grade on the Browns’ draft.  Pro Football Focus gave them an “A”.  Mel Kiper gave them a “C”. Pete Prisco gave them a “C-“.

Lord knows what famous Browns critic Jason LaCanfora gave them.  Is there a grade lower than F?

One thing we can say is Brown and company are trying to make this team younger, and with 14 picks and the acquisition of CB Jamar Taylor from Miami, the roster will have a drastic turnover from a year ago.

We have written several times about the players over 30 years of age on this roster.  The choices Cleveland made indicate more of this group will be gone by the time training camp starts in July.

Paul Kruger said a lot of good things at OTA’s a few weeks ago, but with the drafting of Emmanuel Ogbah, Nassib, and Joe Schobert, there doesn’t seem to be room for him to play.

Grabbing Taylor in the deal with the Dolphins likely will mean that Tramon Williams will not be with the Browns for long.

And with four wide receivers being picked, one of them the first rounder, will Andrew Hawkins be in Berea by the end of summer?

If those players aren’t here, that will leave punter Andy Lee, Joe Thomas, John Greco, and Gary Barnidge as the only players on the wrong side of 30.

The lightning rod pick was taking QB Cody Kessler from USC on the third round.  That’s what a lot of people want to talk about, with most of the objections being that he was a third round pick.

While that is true, he was picked 93rd, and Cleveland had (at the time) the 99th and 100th overall picks.

If Kessler were chosen with one of those selections, would that appease the critics?  In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn’t mean much difference.

And for the people who wanted the Browns to take local boy Connor Cook?  A bunch of teams passed on him multiple times.  And to reiterate what we used to say about Brian Hoyer, just because a player is from here, doesn’t need they will be good quarterbacks.

Not everyone from northeast Ohio is Bernie Kosar.

Also, Kessler’s presence may mean another member of the over 30 set could be gone soon.  It wouldn’t be a shock if Josh McCown is dealt before the beginning of the regular season.

We knew going into this off-season that the Browns were going to overhaul their roster, and by getting 15 new players last weekend, the process has started.

But judging the draft now, and putting a grade on it is based on bias and is out and out stupid.  You also can’t pin the sins of past administrations on Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta.

The Browns are sticking to a plan right now.  Whether they can stick to the plan will probably determine how successful they will be.

JD

 

Previewing Cavs-Hawks

Last year, the Cleveland Cavaliers swept the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference finals and earned their second berth in the NBA championship round in the franchise’s history.

This year, they take on the Hawks in the conference semi-finals after Atlanta eliminated Boston in six games in the first round.

What can the Cavs expect starting on Monday night?

For the season, the wine and gold averaged 104.3 points per game compared to 102.8 for the Hawks.  Defensively, the Cavaliers allowed 98.3 points (4th) compared to 99.2 (6th) for the team from the Peachtree State.

After last season, the Hawks were branded as a ball movement team that relied on the three point shot, led by Kyle Korver.  Actually, the Cavs took 100 more shots from beyond the arc, and finished 7th in threes made, compared to Atlanta’s middle of the pack rank (15th).

Down the stretch, the Hawks became a tenacious defensive group, allowing the worst field goal percentage in the NBA at 43.2%.  Tyronn Lue’s group ranked 14th in this category.

Mike Budenholzer’s squad also ranked 5th in defense against the three point shot.  So, there is no doubt that Atlanta is very good at defending shooters.

However, it becomes a problem for them once a shot is missed.

The Hawks are simply not a good rebounding team.  Twenty three teams had more rebounds than them, and they allowed the 4th most offensive rebounds in the sport.

Cleveland was 9th in total rebounds and allowed the fifth least offensive rebounds as a team in 2015-16.

That makes Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love keys to this series.  If they can keep possessions alive after missed shots and can convert, that’s very demoralizing to opposing teams.

Jeff Teague improved his long range shooting tremendously this season, hitting 40% of his three point shots, compared to 34% a year ago.  He can be a handful for Kyrie Irving, who must stop penetration.

He did not shoot well from distance against Boston, so we would test his ability to make shots early in the series.

His backup, Dennis Schroder, who plays a lot, isn’t a good shooter from outside.

Atlanta’s best player is veteran Paul Millsap, an undersized four at 6’8″, but a very good scorer at 17 points per night.  He is very good at converting second chances, Love, Thompson, and company must keep him off the boards.

Because of Millsap’s size, it will be easy for Lue to use LeBron James at the four.  The Cavs should be able to match up easily if they want to go small.

Al Horford is Atlanta’s third leading scorer, and he’s a bit undersized to play the center spot.  Also, he seems to want to take more shots from the perimeter, which if we were playing defense, would be exactly what we wanted him to do.

And there is no question that Cleveland has to keep an eye on Kyle Korver, one of the NBA’s best long range shooters.

His three point shooting dropped by 10% this season, but you can’t let him get open looks.  You are surprised if he misses those.

Also, when he is on the floor, you have to go at him defensively.  He’s not a strong defender, and now 35 years old, isn’t getting any quicker.

With the home court advantage, it will be critical for the Cavs to come out and win the first two, obviously.  If they can win big, after last year’s sweep, the Hawks could be demoralized early.

This also shouldn’t be a physical of a series as the first round match up vs. Detroit was.  Atlanta doesn’t have the big bodies, but they are a better defensive team.

If Love and Irving are shooting well, we would figure the Cavs in no more than five games.

JK

Browns Finally Pick Someone

Several members of the media have criticized the Cleveland Browns over the years for not getting playmakers.

Tonight, they picked a guy in the first round who scores touchdowns in Baylor WR Corey Coleman, who scored 20 of them last season.

We doubt that Coleman is the guy who Sashi Brown was talking about as the guy they were targeting at the eighth overall pick, we figure that was Oregon DE DeForest Buckner, who was taken one spot ahead of Cleveland at #7 to the 49ers.

So, the front office traded down to #15, picking up another third round pick this year (the Browns now have five of the top 77 choices and seven of the top 100), and another second round pick in ’17, meaning they have two choices in that round.

You can make your Ray Farmer jokes about small wide receivers, because Coleman is just 5’10” and weighs 194 pounds.  But the scouting report on Coleman is that he is a home run hitter, a deep threat, someone who can score from anywhere on the field.

That’s something the Browns have lacked for years.

Coleman’s weaknesses are his hands, which causes us to raise an eyebrow, and that he played in a spread offense, so he hasn’t been exposed to the different routes they run in professional football.

We do have confidence in this coaching staff that they will address a players’ weakness and get them to improve. We don’t know if we could have said that in the past.

However, we still feel that by moving down to #8, and then to #15, Cleveland missed out on an elite talent.  Perhaps the best player in this draft, Buckner, went one pick ahead of their selection, and if he was the guy they wanted, they should have stayed at #2 and picked him.

That’s the point we have been making for the last three weeks or so.  The Browns need elite talent.  Why not start collecting it now.

Coleman looks like a good prospect, and he definitely fits an area of need, but is he potentially a dominant player?  None of the scouting reports we have read reflects that.

We felt the Browns had an opportunity to get a dominant player, which Buckner could be.  He was rated the best pass rusher in the draft and Cleveland could have had him if they just would have stood pat at #2.

That’s why we were thumbs down on trading out of that pick.  And it kind of blew up in the Browns’ face when the Niners took Buckner.

It doesn’t mean that Coleman is a bad choice.  Hopefully, he will give the Browns a player at the receiver position that other teams will have to game plan for.  That’s been a need for a long, long time.

However, the question is he a difference maker?  A player who will be a foundation for the building process this regime is putting together.

We don’t think we will be sitting here five years from now, with the Browns making their first playoff appearance since 2002, and saying that it all started with Corey Coleman.

Could you imagine that if they had picked Buckner, or Joey Bosa, or even Zeke Elliott?

So, today the Browns have another chance to take the best player still remaining on their board.  Our guess is they will trade down again.

This is not to say Brown and his crew will not be successful.  We like their plan of starting over completely.

But passing on what could be elite talent needs to be questioned.

The gathering of extra picks will no doubt help the Browns develop the depth needed to compete in the NFL, but you need great players too.

JD