In Pro Sports, Consistency Is The Key

In the social media era, opinions on players and teams can change on a daily basis, particularly in baseball and basketball, where games are held often, in baseball, pretty much every day for six months.

So, when a much maligned player has a good game, his supporters are very proud to point that out.  Really, the opposite doesn’t happen much, because guys like LeBron James, Francisco Lindor, or Jose Ramirez are universally regarded as among the best players in their sport.

In professional sports though, consistency is the best talent you can bring to the table.

Think about it, if you are talking about a professional athlete, they have enough ability to get to the highest level of the sports in which they play.  This means they are very capable of getting four hits in a baseball game, scoring 20 points in an NBA game, or catching eight passes in an NFL contest.

The problem is what happens the next night.

Back when Danny Ferry played for the Cavaliers, let’s just say we weren’t a fan.  We discovered early he was a “tweener”, too small to play power forward, and not quick enough to play small forward.  In spite of this, he became something of a crowd favorite.

A Ferry fan asked us why we were critical of the player the Cavs gave up Ron Harper AND two first round draft picks for (the worst trade in NBA history in our opinion).  Our explanation was simply this–we would give the fan $5 every time Ferry played a good game, and he would do the same if he played a poor game.

Naturally, the fan turned down our request.  Point made.

The sports landscape is filled with outstanding performances by average or below average players.  This past NBA season, Trey Burke scored 42 for the Knicks, and Alan Crabbe had 41 for the Nets.

Burke averaged 12.8 points per game, and Crabbe 13.2 this season.

Look at the Browns.  How many wide receivers have flashed by having a good game here or there?  Then, defenses pay more attention, and they can’t get open any more.

Remember a Tigers’ hitter named Chris Shelton?  He ended April 2006 with a .326 batting average, 10 home runs and 20 runs batted in.  He did have a decent 2005 season too.

The rest of that season, he hit six homers and knocked in 27.  The following year, he was back in the minors, and played just 50 more games in the big leagues afterwards.

That’s why you need to see sustained success before you should be excited.  Take a guy like Jason Kipnis.

First of all, we don’t root against him.  We would love it if he got hot and started to hit like he did in 2016.  He got off to a horrible start in 2018.  However, over the last 14 days, he’s hitting .243.

The last 28 days?  If you said .243, you’d be correct.

He’s had one full month (June) where he hit above .237, although he is hitting well to start August.  But, you have to maintain consistency.

These guys are professional athletes, and you don’t become that without talent.  There is an old adage that it is tougher to stay in the big leagues than it is to get there.

When you are consistent, the coach or manager can rely on you.  That’s why sometimes Terry Francona gives veterans who have performed for him the benefit of the doubt.  They’ve earned it.  (There is still a fine line between patience and stubbornness).

It’s what every professional athlete strives for.  In the case of Lindor and Ramirez, it is consistent excellence.  For others, it’s being a guy who can be trusted.

MW

 

 

 

Tribe Needs Encarnacion, Alonso To Be Productive In October

We have been talking about the Cleveland Indians’ offense for over a month now and how strange it is that the Tribe ranks 3rd in the AL in runs scored per game with really only three players having above average seasons.

We will point out again that Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are having arguably two of the five best hitting seasons in baseball, because if they weren’t, the Cleveland offense would be in big trouble.

Can they win in the post-season with only three players carrying the load at the plate?

Terry Francona’s squad ranks 4th in the American League in on base percentage, despite having only those three hitters above the league average in that category (.317).

Yes, Erik Gonzalez and Lonnie Chisenhall are higher, but they have limited plate appearances.  Edwin Encarnacion sits right at the league average, while Yonder Alonso is just below at .314.

Alonso has an OBP of .365 in 2017, and his career mark is .336, so he is well below both of those marks.  Encarnacion was at .377 last season, his highest mark since 2012, mostly because he reached a career high with 102 walks.

This season, his walk rate is down, and so is his batting average, down to .229 currently after hitting .258 a walk ago.

Here are the other on base percentages for the players who get the most playing time for the Tribe:

Yan Gomes                 .300
Jason Kipnis               .307
Brandon Guyer         .284
Rajai Davis                 .296
Greg Allen                  .264
Roberto Perez           .247

The Cleveland attack is inconsistent because of it.

Among the teams with the highest run scoring totals in the AL, it was surprising to see the Indians ranking only behind Boston and New York in terms of number of games scoring three runs or less.  The Tribe has done this 43 times, compared to 30 for the Yankees and 34 for the Red Sox.

By contrast, Houston has scored less than four runs 47 times, Texas 50 times, and Oakland 51 times.

The Indians do rank behind only Boston in number of games with 10 or more runs, having done that 14 times (Red Sox 17).

The concern for us is how this will work in the playoffs.  The other teams are going to go out of their way to not allow Lindor or Ramirez to beat them, so it is important that someone, anyone, steps up.

It won’t be unusual to see managers pass Lindor to get to Brantley, and/or skip Ramirez to get to Encarnacion.  Really, who else is going to hurt them the way the lineup is currently constructed.

The point is someone else has to step up or the front office is going to have to get another bat.

Leonys Martin looked like he could help vs. right-handed pitching, but he looks like he may be out of the lineup for awhile with a non-baseball related issue.

Will Chisenhall be able to get back in the lineup, and even if he does, can he stay healthy for the post-season?

We would say at this point, neither Martin nor Chisenhall will be useful come playoff time.

So, can the offense be more consistent and efficient unless changes are made?  We’d say the most likely scenarios would be Encarnacion or Alonso getting better because they were better a year ago.

Gomes is who he is, and Kipnis hasn’t been good at the plate since the World Series in 2016.  That’s a long slump.

Until then, we are officially worried about the hitting come playoff time.  That’s the problem relying on two players, no matter how good they are.

MW

 

Don’t Forget, Dorsey Is Human

Tonight, the newest edition of the Cleveland Browns take the field in an exhibition game (we refuse to call them pre-season) against the New York Giants.

We really aren’t going to pay attention to the final score (it doesn’t matter) or get overly enthusiastic about the performance of players because we don’t know how the two head coaches are playing the game.

That is to say, are they playing a vanilla defense (probably), how much will the starters play (not much), and are they forcing things for different players, mostly guys on the bubble, to see how they handle it?

Remember, the Cleveland Browns, 0-16 in the regular season in 2017, went 4-0 in exhibition games.

If that’s not Exhibit A in making the argument that these games don’t matter, then nothing is.

However, the Browns were in the news this past week, because of the debut of Hard Knocks on HBO, and because their wide receiving position came under scrutiny.

GM John Dorsey traded former first round pick WR Corey Coleman to Buffalo for a 7th round pick in 2019.  We don’t understand this move at all, but our reaction to the media’s coverage was interesting.

Why not keep Coleman around during the exhibition season to see what he can do?  Coleman battled injury issues in both of his seasons with the Browns, playing in just 19 of 32 games, catching 56 passes with five touchdowns.

Did he deserve his draft status?  No, but to be fair, he’s been injured.  We agree that availability is an ability, but it’s also not as though the Browns’ wide receiver room has a plethora of talented wide outs.

We don’t know what Coleman is like in the locker room, and for all we know, he’s a giant pain, which may be the reason he was moved early in training camp.  But the fact that not many reporters really took task with the GM about the trade shows the sheep mentality of the people who cover the Browns.

We get the feeling that Dorsey could deal Myles Garrett for a fourth round pick and he would get support.

This isn’t an indictment on Dorsey, even though we didn’t like the move.  However, Dorsey will make mistakes, and it is alright for the media to disagree with him.

Remember, many of them clamored for a “football guy”, and they got him.  We guess that means they have to follow in lock step.

The GM’s gamble to draft WR Antonio Callaway may also be coming back to haunt.  Callaway had a boatload of issues in his career at Florida, and had a diluted urine test at the NFL Combine.

No doubt he has a load of talent, but is he worth the potential headaches he might provide.  The first headache is already here and we haven’t even played the first practice game.

Perhaps this will be the last time Callaway ever has a problem.  However, it’s not a good look for a new GM trying to change the culture in Berea.  The Browns have had a bunch of craziness at the wide receiver spot over the last several years.  Jarvis Landry can change all that, Callaway continues the problem.

No matter, Baker Mayfield will probably play well tonight, and we can start the fans and media alike clamoring for him to play right away.

Don’t get hooked.  The best thing for the first overall pick is to watch and learn.  Somehow, we think logic won’t get in the way for the people who watch.

JD

 

Cavs Focusing On Youth and Athleticism

The rebuild of the Cleveland Cavaliers continued in the past week with the acquisition of two more young players.  And they also continue to add wing players, which should make for great competition during training camp.

Last week, they signed David Nwaba, who played for the Chicago Bulls a year ago, as a free agent.

Nwaba is 6’4″ and will start the season at 25 years old.  He averaged 7.9 points per game playing 23.5 minutes a night, including 21 starts.  He also gathered almost five rebounds per game, and was one of the Bulls’ better defenders.

On Sunday, GM Koby Altman traded a trade exemption to the Los Angeles Clippers for former first round draft pick Sam Dekker, who is 6’9″ and just 24 years old.

Dekker, who played the first two years of his career in Houston, saw a loss of playing time with LA, dropping from 18 minutes per game with the Rockets, to just 12 with the Clips.

His three point percentage also dropped from 32% in 2016-17, to just 16% last season.

He is certainly worth a gamble, especially because the Cavs gave up nothing to take a look at him.

These pick ups are just an example of the wine and gold collecting a bunch of young players and hoping at least a few of them will become the core of the next playoff team in Cleveland.

They have surrounded Kevin Love with a bunch of athletic players in their mid-twenties. In addition to Nwaba and Dekker, you also have rookie first round pick Collin Sexton (19), Larry Nance Jr (25), Cedi Osman (23), Ante Zizic (21), Rodney Hood (26 at the start of the season), and Jordan Clarkson (26).

And don’t forget another rookie in Billy Preston (21 shortly after the season starts).

Coach Tyronn Lue has always talked about playing faster, but the Cavaliers ranked 12th in pace this past season and they were 15th the previous season.  When your roster is headed by a superstar in his early 30’s, and he is surrounded by veterans, it is tough to play fast.

That will no longer be a factor in this season.  Our guess is that this season’s edition of the Cavs will feature pushing the ball at all times, looking for easy baskets.

It will be a season of learning and judgment for the coach and GM, trying to figure out who has a future with the Cavs and who won’t be able to fit in with Lue and Altman’s vision.

Make no mistake, there are more roster moves coming.  There are rumors that Altman is shopping two more veterans.  Kyle Korver, still a threat from long distance, but now 37 years old, is rumored to be heading to Philadelphia, and JR Smith, who will turned 33 years old next month, has been talked about in a deal with Houston.

We also would not be surprised if Tristan Thompson is elsewhere when the season opens in mid October, but only if another big man comes in return.

Don’t forget, they have Love, Frye, Nance, and Preston who can play the four, and we are sure they want to get Zizic more time at the five.

On the other hand, they may pair Thompson with Love/Frye, and team up Zizic with Nance.  Our guess is Preston plays a lot in Canton.

If nothing else, this year’s Cavs will be interesting to watch at the start of the season.  The question is, will they win enough early on to stay interesting.

JK

The OPS Debate

Right before the Major League Baseball trade deadline, the was a lot of talk about the relative value of players, and of course, statistics were brought up.

At this point, we would like to point out that we regularly purchased and read Bill James’ Baseball Abstract and found it fascinating, a different way of looking at the game and the players on the field.

So, we understand many of the sport’s new statistics, like OPS, and we usually list a player’s OPS when discussing his offensive prowess.  We also look at WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in terms of a player’s profile, but our opinion is it is biased toward middle of the diamond players, Jose Ramirez’ current season notwithstanding.

By the way, that’s our opinion, so save the anger.  But when Matt Chapman, third baseman from Oakland (we know not a middle infielder) measures to have the fifth highest WAR this season, it raises an eyebrow.

This isn’t to say Chapman isn’t a good player.  He has an 830 OPS and is a great defensive player.  He isn’t the 5th best player in the sport this season, and for that matter, Milwaukee’s Lorenzo Cain isn’t 6th either.

Let’s get back to OPS though.  James’ original premise was a batter who had an on base percentage of over .350 and a slugging percentage over .450, therefore displaying an ability to get on base and drive the ball, is a very good offensive player.

Today, there seems to be a group of people who value players who have high OPS due to dominance in the slugging area, leading to players who have low batting averages/on base percentages getting a lot of playing time.

The players who has the highest OPS with out being over the .350/.450 threshold in each category are as follows:

Javier Baez               914 OPS (.333 OBP/581 slugging)
Khris Davis              863 OPS  (.326/.536)
Gregory Polanco     862 OPS  (.344/.517)
Xander Bogaerts     855 OPS  (.342/.513)
Joey Votto                 852 OPS  (.425/.427)

Out of those players, which one would you like to have?

For us, it would be Votto, who by the way, also has the most distinguished career out of the group, although to be fair, he’s also the guy who has been around the longest.

One thing we would like to point out about the on base percentage and slugging percentage.

A player with a 1.000 on base percentage never makes an out, while a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage can arrive at that figure by going 1 for 4 with a home run.

And we would also add is making outs is the only way “time” is measured in a baseball game.  A team only gets 27 of them, and players who make them frequently shouldn’t be as valuable.

Look at the strikeout to walk ratios of the first four players–

Baez             101 K/17 walks
Davis            116 K/38 walks
Polanco          91 K/48 walks
Bogaerts        72 K/31 walks

In watching these guys hit, our feeling in watching them against the Indians is that in a tight situation, you can strike Baez and Davis out.  They swing at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, and if we can see that, we are sure major league pitchers know it too.

We noticed in this summer’s amateur draft, the Indians went for players with good contact rates, that is to say, they didn’t strike out much.

This could be due to the success of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, players who are good hitter, and can develop power later.

A look at the bottom ten teams in MLB in on base percentage shows nine teams not in the post season picture (Arizona is the lone contender).  As for slugging percentage, there are three teams above .500 (Giants, Phillies, and Rays) in the bottom ten.

What does it all mean?  We believe many people look at the statistics first in making judgments about players, and they value the total OPS.  We believe you have to see how the stat is compiled to determine the value of the player.

Just something we wanted to get off our chest.

MW

The Yandy Question.

One of the great conundrums of this baseball season is the Cleveland Indians’ offense.  The Tribe ranks 3rd in the American League in runs scored, yet it seems like it could be even better.

Part of that feeling is well documented on this site, the offense is very top heavy.  Jose Ramirez may just be putting together an MVP season, and no doubt Francisco Lindor will be in the top ten, and maybe top five as well.

Ramirez is threatening to put together the greatest season ever by a major league third baseman.  Think about that for a second.

As great as that duo has been, and they have been supported by Michael Brantley, and to a lesser extent, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso, the bottom of the order can have either three or four hitters who are struggling.

The need for another solid bat makes the handling of Yandy Diaz more curious.

In the minor leagues, Diaz has been an on base machine, a .454 figure last season at Columbus, followed up by a .414 figure this season.

Unfortunately, the Indians’ organization has pigeonholed him as a third baseman, and as we already mentioned, that spot is being manned in Cleveland by perhaps the AL most valuable player.

Diaz doesn’t fit the new hot thing in baseball today, which would be launch angle.  Although he hits the ball as hard as many in the sports, but he doesn’t hit it in the air, and that results in very few extra base hits.  His slugging percentage is at .392, down from last year’s .460.

So, why the Joey Gallo’s of the world are thought to be good hitters, Yandy Diaz is not.

While Diaz doesn’t hit with power, what he doesn’t do is make outs.  He gets on base over 40% of the time, and even last year with the Indians, he had an OBP of .352 in 2017.  That figure would rank behind only Ramirez, Lindor, and Lonnie Chisenhall on this year’s roster.

Remember, when Cleveland had their 22 game winning streak in 2017, Diaz was basically the regular third baseman because Jason Kipnis was hurt, and Ramirez was moved to second.

The big question for us is with the issues the Tribe has had in the outfield this season, why didn’t they move Diaz to RF and work with him in spring training.  He played 27 games there in 2016 and nine games in 2017.

Couldn’t he play the position at least as well as, let’s say, Melky Cabrera?  No one expects him to be Roberto Clemente out there.  What we’ve seen of him at the hot corner doesn’t suggest that he’s a butcher in the field.

It would seem to us that his bat could help the big club.  He takes walks, makes contact, and when he was called up for four games right after the All Star Game, he went 7 for 14 with the Indians.

Diaz’ offensive prowess is being wasted because he will be 27 years old in a few days (August 8th to be exact), but for some reason, the organization doesn’t seem anxious to find a way to get his bat into the lineup.

A lineup that needs a boost.  A lineup that is short on players who can get on base.  A lineup that lost one of its best on base percentage guys last off-season in Carlos Santana.

What is the organization’s problem with Yandy Diaz?  Instead of looking for a way to get his bat in there, there seem to be burying him.

MW

 

 

Tribe Makes A Solid Move In Getting Martin

It wasn’t a splashy trade deadline for the Cleveland Indians, but since play resumed after the All Star Game, there is no question the front office tried to address the Tribe’s weaknesses.

Getting Brad Hand and Adam Cimber helped the bullpen for sure, and in fact, with Cody Allen struggling a bit, it seems like Terry Francona is reshuffling the deck with how he uses his relief corps.

Yesterday, the Tribe improved their centerfield spot by trading for Leonys Martin, getting him from Detroit for SS Willi Castro, who was playing at AA Akron.

Martin replaces Tyler Naquin, who isn’t really a centerfielder, and Greg Allen, who was being rushed to the majors.  Since Naquin was getting the bulk of the playing time, the defense also gets a boost.

A left-handed hitter, Martin was batting .251 with 9 HR and 29 RBI (731 OPS) with the Tigers, but vs. right-handed pitching, he’s hitting .275 with a 783 OPS.

We say center isn’t totally improved because Martin is a platoon piece, and against lefties, Rajai Davis, with an OPS under 600 against southpaws, will still be out there.

While Martin isn’t a “big name”, he definitely improves the Cleveland roster.  The acquisition reminds me of getting Brandon Guyer at the deadline in 2016.  That move wasn’t greeted with enthusiasm either, but Guyer was a big factor in the Tribe’s march to game seven of the World Series.

The front office made a rare trade of minor leaguers too, getting OF Oscar Mercado from the St. Louis Cardinals for Connor Capel, who was at Lynchburg, and Jhan Torres, who is in rookie ball.

Mercado was ranked the Cardinals’ 8th best prospect by Baseball America in their mid-season prospect ratings, and the report is he has developed a short quick stroke with power.  He is regarded as a very good defensive outfielder and top flight speed.

At 23 years old, he is playing at AAA Memphis, hitting .285 with 8 HR and 42 RBI (759 OPS) and 31 stolen bases.

If he doesn’t get called up before this season ends (he likely will be after September 1st), he could be a candidate for a starting job next season, particularly with Bradley Zimmer possibility out until the all star break next season with a shoulder issue.

We would have liked to see another bullpen arm, especially with Neil Ramirez leaking oil just a bit, but Andrew Miller could be back as soon as next week, and as we all know, that could be a gigantic piece if the big lefty is back to form.

And while Martin does help, it would have been nice to have an everyday guy in centerfield instead of a platoon piece.  Terry Francona is a master at using the platoon advantage, but we are sure he would like to do that on a limited basis.

Right now, we still think the batting order is one hitter short of being elite.  There are too many games where the bottom of the order is contributing only a couple hits.  That puts a lot of pressure on the top of the order, and with Michael Brantley struggling since the break, the offense isn’t clicking.

Leonys Martin isn’t a flashy name, but he’s a solid defensive centerfielder and can be a good bat against righties.

The Indians roster is better today than they were yesterday morning.  That means the front office did their job.

MW

The Tribe Outfield Dilemma: Need Offense and Defense

The Major League Baseball trading deadline is just hours away and the Cleveland Indians still some holes they need to fix if they want to compete the “big three” of the American League:  The Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.

As has been documented before, the Cleveland lineup is very top heavy.  Once you get past the first five hitters in Terry Francona’s batting order, it is a virtual desert.

In our opinion, to have a good offense you need to have seven solid bats in the lineup.  That leaves the Tribe two good hitters short.

It is a testament to how great Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso have been that the Indians rank 2nd in the American League in runs scored.

The balance of the order, particularly the outfielders, aren’t getting it done.  Yes, Brandon Guyer has started hammering lefties lately, but the centerfield platoon of Tyler Naquin and Rajai Davis isn’t getting it done, and Melky Cabrera has a 626 OPS as well.

It’s particularly tough for the offense when Roberto Perez, hitting .144, is catching.

Suffice it to say, the Tribe could use another bat or two to protect itself for when the top five is having a rare day where they aren’t hitting.

But here is where the rub is, the other problem for the Indians is their defense in the outfield.  Davis has been okay defensively, but Naquin is a corner outfielder at his core, and struggles in center.

In rightfield, Cabrera is below average with the glove, and Michael Brantley is at this point in his career probably should be a designated hitter.

When your starting pitchers are as good as Cleveland’s, shouldn’t you support them with solid defense?

Right now, no one is giving up centerfielders who can go get balls in the gap and can also be a factor with a bat in his hand.  So, it seems Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff have a decision to make.  Do they just punt on the defense and go for the bat, or get a solid glove man and try to manufacture runs some other way.

One move the team could make is the same one they made late last season, moving Jason Kipnis to center.  That would allow Francona to move Ramirez to second base, and have Yandy Diaz, an on base machine to man the hot corner.

It would seem that Diaz in the lineup over Naquin and his .295 on base percentage (651 OPS) would help the offense.

Getting a better platoon partner for Guyer in RF would also help, and we would suggest getting former St. Ignatius High standout Derek Dietrich from the Marlins if possible.

Dietrich has a .348 on base percentage and a .824 OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season, which would be a perfect match for Guyer.

We are definitely not a fan of Joey Gallo, also mentioned in rumors.  He has a 751 OPS vs. righties and his numbers away from Texas (.167 batting average, 656 OPS) aren’t ideal.

That’s the dilemma for the Cleveland front office.  They need an offensive boost, mostly in the outfield, but they need an upgrade defensively out there as well.  It doesn’t appear there is a player available out there that fixes both problems.

So, it may be that two moves are needed.

There is some pressure on Antonetti and Chernoff, unless they want to move Kipnis, but we don’t know if that move fixes either issue.

MW

Building Around Love…Kevin, That Is

Most basketball observers figured that after LeBron James departed the Cavaliers for the Lakers, the next logical move for the wine and gold would be trading Kevin Love for young players and/or draft picks.

So, it was a surprise Tuesday that Love was offered and accepted a four year extension with the team, making him the centerpiece of the retooling of the franchise.

Love is surrounded by a group of young players, notably rookie first round pick Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr., Rodney Hood, Cedi Osman, and Ante Zizic.

While it is not the direction we would have went in, we wouldn’t rebuild around a 30 year old player, we can understand GM Koby Altman and coach Tyronn Lue wanting to see what the 2018-19 edition of the Cavs would look like with a five time all-star as the cornerstone.

We do feel that Love will put up better numbers as the primary scoring option, getting back to the 20-24 points per game level in addition to his usual outstanding rebounding total.

Remember, no player sacrificed more of their game with James on the roster than Love.  That’s not a criticism, it’s a compliment.  And Love has a championship ring for being a great teammate.

It made more sense to strip the franchise down when James left following the 2010 season, because of who remained on the roster.  The best players remaining then were Anderson Varejao, Mo Williams, and an aging Antawn Jamison.

The only young players who people thought had potential were J.J. Hickson, Danny Green, and Boobie Gibson.  And the team cut Green prior to the next season.

We have said it before and nothing has changed our opinion, this team is set up far better to deal with the loss of James than they were in 2010, because of the young talent currently on the roster.

Will all of those players become all stars?  Of course not.  Could they become serviceable NBA players?  We see the potential in most of them that they could be, and they can be more than good players on a bad team.

And why not give them an opportunity to find out while playing with an all star player.  Remember, Love was second team All-NBA twice in his career with Minnesota.

As for criticism of those Timberwolves teams not being very good, that’s not entirely fair.

In Love’s first breakout season with Minnesota, the second best player on the team were either Luke Ridnour or Anthony Tolliver.  Not a surprise the Wolves were not a very good basketball team.

The following season was the strike shortened season, and Minnesota’s winning percentage would have equated to 32 wins (+15) in an 82 game schedule.

Love missed most of the year the following season, but Ricky Rubio was developing and the Timberwolves won 31 games, and the next year finished just short of .500 at 40-42.  That squad had Love, Rubio, Corey Brewer, and bruising big man Nikola Pekovic.

They were showing steady improvement, but Love came to the Cavs after the season.

So, when they had some talent, Love and the Wolves weren’t a terrible basketball team.

As for trading Love and bottoming out?  That doesn’t always work either.  Look at franchises like Sacramento, Orlando, and the Knicks.

Why not try to see how good you can be and reassess things?  As for being “stuck in the middle?”, it’s only a bad thing if you stay in that spot for a few years.  Making the playoffs and being ousted in the first round three straight seasons is bad, doing it once isn’t.

We still think the Cavs are trying to move veterans like Kyle Korver, JR Smith, and perhaps Tristan Thompson and George Hill too.  They will continue to try and bring in younger, more athletic players.

It’s tough to argue with the cornerstone being a five time all star.

JK

 

The Kipnis Question

Certainly, one of the Cleveland Indians who has stirred up much debate this season is Jason Kipnis.

From the time he was called up in 2011 to the end of the 2016 World Series, Kipnis was a mainstay for the Tribe, one of their core players and one of their best offensive players.

However, since that time, Kipnis has battled injuries and a lack of production.  And because his salary has jumped from a reported $9.17 million last season to $13.67 million in 2018, there are a lot of fans who want to move on, feeling that amount of cash could be spent elsewhere.

Last year, Kipnis batted .232 with a 705 OPS, this year, those numbers have declined further, with a .219 batting average and a 669 OPS.

His supporters will say he was turned the corner after a rough April and May, but since June 1st, he’s batted .252, with 7 HR and 20 RBIs.  Over the last 28 days, he’s at .242 with an 800 OPS.

He hasn’t been able to maintain any success though.  Over the past 14 days, his average is .207 with a respectable 757 OPS.

Defensively, he’s average at best, although my eyes tell me he doesn’t get to the balls he used to get four to five years ago, and he’s never been tremendous turning double plays.  This isn’t to say he’s horrible with the glove, but we think having Jose Ramirez there (and we know he’s having a historic season at 3B), would improve the defense.

Kipnis’ struggles at the plate are magnified by the Indians’ problems in centerfield and rightfield.  If they were getting decent production out of those spots, the scenario would be more like “if Kip would just get going, it would be great”.

As it is, when Roberto Perez is behind the plate, Terry Francona puts out a lineup where the 6th through 9 hitters in batting order are pretty weak.  Besides Perez (459 OPS), he puts out Rajai Davis (606 OPS), Brandon Guyer (640 OPS), and Kipnis.

That isn’t good enough for a contending team.

We have seen people talk about how well Kipnis has hit since June 1st.  In fact, several people have pointed out that he was hitting better than the recently traded Manny Machado since that point.

However, that’s the problem with picking an arbitrary date.  As Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson used to point out, the season starts on a certain date.  The games starting on Opening Day count just as much as the ones played today.

Besides, on June 1st, Kipnis was hitting .199 with a 586 OPS.  He’s raised his average only 20 points in that time, and his OPS is up 83 points.

We reported what he has done since June 1st above.  It’s not like he’s been at an all-star level since that date.  He’s been a little better than average.  So, he was terrible for the first 55 games, and above average since.  It’s not as though he’s been torrid since then.

We didn’t advocate dealing Kipnis during the winter because coming off a bad year, they would be getting fifty cents on the dollar.

Now, the front office will be in a position where if they want to move him, they will likely have to pick up some of his $14.6 million salary for next year.

Perhaps Kipnis will get blazing hot from now until the end of the year.  After almost a year and a half of mediocrity, that doesn’t seem likely.  It is something the Tribe will have to face up to before July 31st.

MW