The Cavs’ Slow Down Offense.

We have discussed a few times how the Cleveland Cavaliers have changed their offensive style of play since Larry Drew took over as head coach six games into the season.

The Cavs are one of the most workmanlike teams in the NBA with the ball, ranking ahead of only Memphis and Houston (surprisingly) in pace of play, and ranking last in the league in assists (tied with the Knicks).

They are also dead last in scoring, but is up to 14th in the association in defensive scoring, despite being behind only San Antonio in worst field goal percentage against.

The wine and gold haven’t turned into playoff contenders under Drew, but they are 5-13 since he took over the reins, and the most points they’ve allowed in a game under the new head man is the 129 allowed last night against the defending champion Warriors.

They allowed more than 130 twice in the first six games under Tyronn Lue.

Part of the reason for last night’s performance was the Cavs got caught up playing Golden State’s game.

And we have said many times, you try to play that way against them, they are better at it than you.

Four times since Drew became head coach have the Cavs held teams under 100 points, which never happened in the first half dozen contests.

This isn’t to say the Cavs are suddenly a decent defensive squad or that Lue was a terrible head coach.  We are saying that the slower pace seems to be suiting this group of players better.

Which brings us to the Cavaliers’ offensive strategy, which allows them to control the pace of play.

While they certainly run when they get an opportunity, mostly off of turnovers, not defensive rebounds, when Cleveland gets in a half court situation, they are very deliberate.

On many possessions, they run the shot clock down to around ten seconds, and run a play, a lot of times some kind of curl move into the paint which results in a decent shot, a mid range shot.

If the defense reacts well, the Cavs don’t get a good look.  We guess that’s fine with Drew because his club is controlling the tempo.

Cleveland is also in the top ten in offensive rebounding, led by the irrepressible Tristan Thompson, who is second in the league in the category.  The extra possessions helps slow down opponents too.

And that could help explain the low assist totals.  Thompson gets a lot of hoops that way, and there is no passing helping him.

The Cavs also don’t take a lot of three pointers, even though they are in the middle of the pack in percentage.  In watching the games, they do take the wide open looks, but they aren’t forcing long jumpers.

We know the analytics say to take three pointer instead of long twos, but is it better to miss a three or make a two?

While the Cavs aren’t winning, other teams are having success playing slower.  Among the teams playing with a slow pace are Memphis (13-9), Indiana (14-10), and the most successful team is Denver (16-7).

It seems some teams are figuring out you can’t beat the Warriors playing their style.

We will have to see how the offense evolves when Kevin Love returns to the lineup.  He should provide better spacing because whoever is playing the power forward, whether it be Larry Nance Jr. or Cedi Osman, aren’t a threat from behind the arc.

However, controlling the pace is the best way for the Cavs to remain competitive most nights.

That’s good coaching.

JK

 

 

Browns Youth Shows Up Vs. Texans

Any chance, however how remote, the Cleveland Browns had of making the playoffs went away after Sunday’s 29-13 loss to the Houston Texans.

The Browns dropped to 4-7-1 on the season as the Texans won their ninth straight contest.  Cleveland took a step up in class after beating Atlanta and Cincinnati, and failed the test.  Houston looked like a team that could have some success in the playoffs against Gregg Williams’ squad.

The Browns have played a number of the top teams in the NFL this season:  New Orleans, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Chargers, and Houston.  The Texans rank right up there with Kansas City and the Chargers as the toughest foes for the Browns.

We are sure there will be those complaining about Baker Mayfield’s performance in the game, but to us, it was just a reminder that last year’s Heisman Trophy winner is a rookie.  He hasn’t played like it for, really, most of the season, but he still has played only 10 NFL games.

It was a learning experience, and our guess is Mayfield will learn from it, and be better this Sunday at home against the Panthers.

Think about how few games many of the best players on the roster have played in the league.  Besides Mayfield, Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, Denzel Ward, David Njoku, and Larry Ogunjobi have all played less than two complete seasons in the league.

And we would bet at least two of those players will be Pro Bowl selections this season.

As for Garrett, we can’t believe some fans are disappointed in last year’s first overall selection in the draft.

He’s second in the NFL in sacks this season, for cryin’ out loud!

We think there are some fans who think Garrett should sack the opposing quarterback on every certain passing down.  It just doesn’t work that way.

Garrett commands double teams and opposing offensive coordinators make sure they know where is at on every down.  Believe us, they are aware of him.

Since sacks started being tracked as a statistic in the NFL in 1982, the Browns all time leader is Clay Matthews with 62, followed by Michael Dean Perry with 51-1/2.

If Garrett gets four more before the end of this season, he would join the top ten all time for the Browns, tying Kennard Lang and Jamir Miller.

In two years!

Barring injury, he is going to be one of the cornerstones for this franchise as they move into playoff contention.

With four games left in the season, and none of them against the class of this year’s NFL, the Browns have a very good chance to finish the season 6-9-1 or even 7-8-1.

This week’s opponent, Carolina, is reeling with four straight losses and is 1-4 on the road.

Traveling to Denver is always tough, even if the Broncos are 6-6.  They have won three in a row.

Then come divisional games against Cincinnati at home, and the non-passing Ravens in the season finale.  Andy Dalton is done for the year, getting hurt last week against the Browns, and although Baltimore is a playoff team right now, it will be interesting to see how the league adjusts to the Lamar Jackson experiment.

Six or seven wins coming off a winless season would be phenomenal improvement, and so would not finishing last, which is also very possible.

On the other hand, it’s tough to gauge how this young football team will handle, what for many, is their first 16 game schedule.

For the first time in a while, the last four games should be interesting to watch, at least from a developmental standpoint.

JD

 

Gomes Move Is First Step To Reallocating Payroll

The Indians dealt another key member of the team over the last five seasons on Friday, moving catcher Yan Gomes to the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers (the 7th and 8th prospects on Baseball America’s mid season report.

Immediately, the criticism began from the Tribe is cheap faction in fandom.  We say let’s see.  If the Indians’ payroll is not close to where it was last season, then there is a valid argument.

However, as we have said all along, if Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff want to improve the 2018 Indians, they will need to clear some cash from the books, and that would give them the flexibility to add some players.

The Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes said it is difficult to contend while you rebuild, and while we agree in most cases, when you have two of the league’s top ten players in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, it is a bit easier.

Gomes will turn 32 next July, so he is past his prime.  While still an excellent defensive catcher and handler of a pitching staff, here are his OPS since coming to Cleveland in 2013:

2013:  826
2014:  785
2015:  659
2016:  527
2017:  708
2018:  762

Last season was Gomes’ best offensively since ’14, so logic tells you he was going to slip back a bit in 2019.  He’s not a guy who has real strike zone judgment either, his career high in walks being 31 in 2017.

In our opinion, that doesn’t lead to a player sustaining decent offensive numbers as he ages.

With Gomes making $7 million this year and with club options for ’20 ($9 million) and ’21 ($11 million), the brass figured they didn’t want to pay that kind of money for a season that probably won’t be as productive as last, so they dumped his salary.

That doesn’t mean there is a “fire sale” going on, it simply means the Indians are doing what we said they need to do since the off-season began, and that is reallocate the payroll.

They have a lot of money tied up in players who no longer are producing up to the level of their contracts:  Edwin Encarnacion ($21.7 million), Jason Kipnis ($14.7 million), and Yonder Alonso ($8 million).

All of these guys are on the other side of 30 years old, and there performance has declined.  Let’s say the Indians could manage to trade all three of them, plus Gomes, and that would clear over $51 million in salary, and if they plan to have a payroll close to 2018 level, it gives them a lot to spend.

If they decide to deal a starting pitcher, again, it is a move designed to reallocate funds and also a trade made from strength.

With the emergence of Shane Bieber, and the coming arrival of Triston McKenzie, there may be no better time to move a starter.

We would hate to see Corey Kluber dealt, but he will be 33 in April.  If you can move him and get a young hitter and another young pitcher in return, you have to think about it.

You still have Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Bieber, and you can get another veteran starter with the money you save to hold you over until McKenzie is ready.

Remember too, the three pitchers Cleveland was obtained since the end of the season (Chih-Wei Hu, Walker Lockett, and Jeffy Rodriguez) all have starting experience in AAA.

So, don’t make any rash judgments on what the front office is doing until they are finished.  We aren’t someone who think the Dolan ownership does no wrong, but right now, we believe the front office is just moving soon to be dead money in favor of younger players with upside.

And that’s what they should do.

MW

Tribe Roster in ’19 Will Look Very Different.

Little by little, the Cleveland Indians we have come to know are leaving the team.  Some we knew quite well, others passed through quickly.

Lonnie Chisenhall, one of the longest tenured players in the organization signed a one year deal with the Pirates on the same day Josh Donaldson, who spent less than a month with the Tribe, signed with Atlanta.

And of course, there have been rumors of trades, mostly regarding more players who have been with the Indians since Terry Francona was hired prior to the 2013 season.

Players like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis, and Yan Gomes are primarily mentioned.

While not all of them will be traded (we think), there is no question the 2019 edition of the Cleveland Indians will look very different from the past.

Obviously, no matter what occurs in the next couple of months, the Tribe will be led by Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, both of whom finished in the top six in the American League MVP voting, and regardless of a trade, a stout starting rotation.

We have read comments from fans and media alike calling this a fire sale, or the Indians cutting payroll, but we don’t believe that’s the case.

Any moves made will involves redistributing the money the ownership can spend, because right now, they have a lot of money tied up in players in the decline phases of their careers.

Take Gomes, for example.  He is scheduled to make slightly over $7 million next season.  He’ll be 32 during the 2019 season, and had his best offensive season (762 OPS) since 2014 (785 OPS).

Why not trade him now after a good offensive season, in addition to his excellent defense and handling of a pitching staff?  And you give yourself some additional money to address other areas of need.

As for Kipnis, it’s a matter of moving a player who appears to have peaked in 2016 and is owed a lot of money next season.  It is doubtful the veteran will bring a lot in return because of his bloated salary.  In fact, the Indians may have to kick in some cash to make the deal.

Even if they have to throw in $4 million, that still gives the organization an extra $10 million to upgrade other areas.

And we still believe Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff will move one of the starting pitchers to bring in the biggest prize, a young controllable bat who can add depth to the batting order.

We still believe Carrasco will bring the biggest return.

It may not end there either.  The front office would love to move Yonder Alonso and/or Edwin Encarnacion freeing up more cash to spend, not to keep.

While we have seen some moves around baseball already, our guess is the Tribe will look to deal off some veterans before adding the new faces to the roster.

However, we reiterate that what the front office is doing to reallocating the payroll to try and prop the window open for several more years.  At the end of the season, we came to the realization that everyone in their normal lineup was over 30 years old, save for Lindor and Ramirez.

That’s not a recipe to get better, especially offensively.

That’s the off-season goal of the front office in our opinion, to get surround the two MVP candidates with players with upside.

That, and rebuild the bullpen.

MW

Texans Are Browns’ Toughest Foe Remaining.

We have always thought playing the NFL schedule game before the season starts is idiotic because so much happens during an NFL season, particularly injuries.

After the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Gregg Williams’ head coaching debut, the Browns rebounded to knock off Atlanta at home and followed up by breaking their 25 game losing streak on the road, beating the Bengals 35-20 on Sunday.

Now at 4-6-1, it appears the toughest remaining opponent on the schedule comes up next weekend when the Browns take on Houston, currently leading the AFC South at 7-3.

Another win and the Browns will be in playoff contention, believe it or not.

This is not to say Cleveland will be favored in any of those remaining games, heck, only two of them will be at home, a December 9th visit from Carolina and the Bengals come in for a game two days before Christmas.

However, no one would be shocked if Gregg Williams’ team won any of the five contests left on the slate, which also includes road games at Denver (5-6) and Baltimore (6-5).

This is a different team than the one that lost to Pittsburgh on October 28th.

Changing the play calling has helped Baker Mayfield be a more efficient quarterback, completing almost 74% of his passes over the last three weeks, with nine touchdown throws and just one interception.

Gone are the constant downfield throws which Hue Jackson used last year with DeShone Kizer and Todd Haley continued over the first eight games this season.  Mayfield is throwing a lot of short, quick routes, getting the ball out of his hand quickly, and using his accuracy.

That doesn’t mean he’s become a dink and dunk guy though.  When need be, he can fire the ball downfield, like the pass over the middle to TE David Njoku on Sunday.

Speaking of Njoku, we don’t hear (or see) the dropped passes that had some in the media suggesting he is a bust anymore.

Nick Chubb continues to impress as well, still averaging over five yards per carry.  Chubb finally passed the traded Carlos Hyde in carries against the Bengals, and he’s been the featured back for the past five games.  That’s how the old regime forced the ball into Hyde’s hands.

Hyde is a reliable back for sure, but Chubb is too and he can break the big run as well, which makes him the more dynamic runner.

Another observation we have on the Browns is on defense.  Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, both high first round draft picks get a lot of attention, and rightly so, but watching Sunday’s game, man, is Joe Schobert a heck of a football player.

It seems whenever the defense makes a good play, he is in the center of it.  He plays and run and the pass both very well, and as Williams pointed out earlier this season, he is responsible for making sure everyone is lined up in the right place too.

The pick was criticized when it was made, people blaming analytics for the choice because Schobert doesn’t look like Dick Butkus.  But in today’s NFL, he’s a perfect middle linebacker.

He made the Pro Bowl a year ago, and we would not be surprised if he made it again.  He’s that good.

JD

 

Solid Efforts Starting To Appear For Cavs

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won two straight and now no longer have the worst record in the NBA.  Add in a very close loss at home to the Lakers on Wednesday night, and you have three consecutive solid efforts for Larry Drew’s crew.

Once again, the chief reason for this is slowing down the pace.  Cleveland is now 28th in the NBA in pace.  We have said it before, if you are short on talent, it is ludicrous to try to run up and down the court with squads that have more talent than you.

The Cavs are taking better shots too.  They are up to 17th in the league in field goal percentage, and although they don’t take many three point shots, they are last in the NBA in attempts at 23.6 (the Rockets and Bucks both take more than 40), they are 7th in the Association in percentage made at 36.3%.

They have cut way back on the number of possessions in which they just come down the floor and jack up the first open shot, no matter if it is one the shooter can reasonable make.

They run when they get the opportunity, and if the numbers aren’t their, they are patient.  They are also third in the NBA in offensive rebounds, led by Tristan Thompson, who is second in the league in that category, so they extend a lot of possessions.

First round draft pick Collin Sexton is playing much better too.  The rookie, who was getting criticized heavily by some veterans, has settled down and shown he has game.

He’s scoring 14.6 points per night, and since moving into the starting lineup when George Hill got injured, he’s just under 20 per night, shooting 50% or better in six of those eight games.

Yes, we would like him to average more than 2.4 assists per game, but none of the Cavs have gaudy assist totals.  Kevin Love still leads the team at 3.5 and Hill is next at 3.0.  Sexton is fifth behind a pair of forwards, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman.

Right now, opposing teams are playing off of Sexton, seeing if he can make the jumper consistently.  If he continues to do it, that will open up driving lane and hopefully, the rook will get defenders to collapse and then find the open man.

Another change Drew has made is dusting off a guy we have been begging to play more in David Nwaba.

The soon to be 26 year old from Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo isn’t spectacular, but he’s the best perimeter defender on the roster, and having him, Osman, and Thompson on the floor at the beginning of games gives Drew a defensive presence.

Putting Nance in there provides another.

Teams are leaving Nwaba open from beyond the three point line, and we would like him to not concede and shoot that shot.  He is open for a reason.  We know the long range two is not a good shot analytically, but a made 22 foot shot is better than a missed three.

We understand the Cavs are going to have ups and downs, but the last three games are encouraging and yes, watchable.

You are starting to see some roles develop.  Thompson is becoming a leader.  Jordan Clarkson is become a go-to scorer in the fourth quarter.  Nance and Nwaba are energy guys.

That’s a good sign.

The Cavs are 4-8 after losing their first six, and it looks like Drew has provided a trusting voice for the players.  Beating two playoff teams in a row in Philadelphia and Houston should solidify that trust.

JK

Keeping Lindor Should Be Tribe’s Priority

Earlier this week, Major League Baseball announced a television broadcast contract extension with Fox, which will pay each team an additional $24 million starting in 2022.

Coincidentally, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor is eligible for free agency following the 2021 season.  So, we’ve found a good way for the Indians to spend that extra TV money.

We have pounded the drum on this for the past few years.  If you can keep Lindor with the Indians for a total of at least ten seasons, or through the 2024 campaign (when he will be 31 years old), we will become universally recognized as the best position player ever to don a Cleveland baseball uniform.

Lindor currently has accumulated 23.9 WAR over his four years with the Indians.  The all time franchise leader is Napoleon Lajoie with 79.9.  The recently turned 25 year old shortstop had 7.9 WAR in 2018, and at his age, it would not be a stretch to think he will improve for the next several years.

So, let’s say he averages 9.0 WAR over the next six years.  That would get him to 77.9 for his career, very close to Lajoie’s total, and ahead of Tris Speaker for second place.

However, this statistic has Kenny Lofton 4th in club history.  We loved Lofton as a player, and believe he should have received serious Hall of Fame consideration, but he’s not the fourth best position player in team history.

Let’s look at traditional statistics.

Lindor has 665 base hits currently, getting 183 a year ago.  If he averages 180 over the next six years, he would have 1745 knocks, which would rank 5th on the Indians’ all time list.

Home runs?  The switch-hitting Lindor has 98 dingers to date.  Averaging 30 through the 2024 season would give him 278 homers, second in club history behind recently inducted Hall of Famer Jim Thome.  Keep in mind, Lindor has hit more than 30 in each of the last two years.

As for RBIs, Frankie is sitting at 310, getting 92 last year.  If he averages 90 through ’24, that would give him 850, tying him for 7th with Ken Keltner in Indians’ annals.

Our guess is Lindor will be moved down in the batting order as soon as this year to take advantage of his pop, so that estimate might be conservative.

And in runs scored, Lindor has 377 runs, scoring 129 in 2018.  Averaging 100 per year for the next six seasons would give him 977 tallies, putting him 3rd on the Tribe’s all time list.

So, as you can see, keeping Lindor for ten seasons puts him near the top in most of the major categories in Indians’ history.  And we were conservative with some of the numbers because, so he might rank higher.

Keeping him beyond that, or dare say, for his entire career would probably put him at the top of those lists.

Also, at 25, and with just three full big league seasons under his belt, he has three top 10 MVP finishes.

We understand it takes two to tango, and Lindor has to want to stay here for awhile.  But we say make it worth his while.

The big contracts this off-season will be Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Once those deals are agreed to, the Tribe front office should have a good idea of what it will take to sign the shortstop.

We don’t want to hear about being a small to mid market in this case.  Lindor is one of the top ten, if not five players in baseball.  If you have to go over your comfort level to keep him, you have to do it.

You drafted and signed this guy, and watched him become a great player.  They need to make sure he never plays anywhere else.

And your fan base deserves a player who never plays anywhere else too.

MW

LeBron’s Version Is A Bit Of Hindsight.

With LeBron James coming back to Cleveland as a member of the Lakers tomorrow night, the events of the summer of 2017 is being rehashed, particularly the trade of Kyrie Irving to Boston.

As we said and thought at the time, despite the narrative LeBron and his camp what to put out there now, this is what we think.

First, we don’t believe James and Irving could have co-existed in 2017-18, because Irving was tired of playing with James, and having two all star players not getting along is a recipe for disaster.

Look at what happened in Chicago with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  Remember the whole Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant issues with the Lakers.  You can’t force two guys to get along when one party doesn’t want it to work.

Second, the Irving trade rumors came before the ’17 Draft, and when David Griffin was still GM.  Was Griffin working because owner Dan Gilbert wanted Irving out?  Or did Irving ask the organization for a deal?

We believe Griffin knew the only way to improve the roster, and make it deeper, was to move a very valuable commodity in Irving.  Getting a solid point guard in return and adding another young, athletic player would help the Cavs win another title.

That was supposedly the move with Phoenix, with Cleveland getting Eric Bledsoe and the 4th pick in the 2017 draft.

Were talks really going on with the Suns?  We don’t know for sure, but the rumors were out there.

It was reported that James did not want the deal to happen, although, behind the scenes, he was perfectly happy with the move, because he thought (and we agree) that Irving plays for himself first, which is against James’ style.

However, when he was asked if he would commit to the Cavs long term if Irving was not moved, James declined.

Now, thinking about this at the time (not now with hindsight being 20/20), why would you hold on to Irving without a commitment from James to keep the “Big Three” together for a few more years?

If he wanted to, James could’ve killed the deal if we would have been willing to sign a contract extension.

Without that, the Cavs were looking at a rebuild after the 2017-18 season anyway, because a Irving-Kevin Love led team isn’t going to win an NBA title.

Look, he get that James didn’t (doesn’t) trust Dan Gilbert, and he has every reason not to, but Gilbert had to do what was best for the future of the Cavaliers.  And if Brooklyn would have played to expectations a year ago, maybe Luca Doncic, Jaren Jackson, or another top rookie is in Cleveland today.

Kyrie Irving is a popular player in today’s NBA.  He’s flashy, he can handle, and he is a tremendous finisher at the rim.  In short, he’s a highlight reel player.

However, he’s a poor defender and not exactly a great or willing passer.

It’s not in James’ best interest image wise to say he was in favor of the Cavaliers moving on from Kyrie to improve ball movement and defense, which would have helped in beating Golden State.

Having James and Irving at odds going into last season would not have helped the wine and gold.  Getting prepared for life after LeBron is just being prudent.

Now, the plan didn’t work because the Brooklyn draft pick wound up being the 8th pick and not a top five choice.

That’s the biggest problem with the trade.

JK

What Does Drew Do With Returning Cavs?

The Cleveland Cavaliers had their best game of the season Tuesday night when they beat the Charlotte Hornets convincingly at Quicken Loans Arena.

They followed that up the next night getting hammered by the Washington Wizards on the road.

That’s the life of a team trying to discover themselves after they lost the beat player in the league.  They have to realize what happened the night before has no bearing on the next game.

You have to have sound habits and solid defense every night to win in the NBA.  Consider that game one of the “lessons” former coach Tyronn Lue talked about when training camp started in September.

Larry Drew’s next challenge will be fitting in the returning injured players.  For whatever reasons, and we know analytically it doesn’t make sense, the Cavs have played better with Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Jr. at the big man spots.

So, it would seem putting Cedi Osman back at the small forward spot is a no-brainer.  JR Smith has played well defensively, but he is still shooting just 35% from the floor, and just 32% from three.  Osman hasn’t done much better, but might be better served with the slower pace, taking more mid-range jumpers and getting to the rim.

And, we have always thought Osman was a solid defender too.

Kyle Korver should be back tomorrow night, but Drew has already said David Nwaba will not lose playing time, and why should he?

Nwaba has the highest offensive rating on the team (which we would say is not sustainable), and has the second best (behind Nance) defensive rating.  He’s shooting 51.5% from the floor, which isn’t likely to continue, but it is what it is.

It is also hard to imagine Collin Sexton will go back to the bench when George Hill returns.

Since becoming a starter, the rookie has averaged 18.8 points per game.  We would like to see more than 2.5 assists per night, but he’s shooting 48% from the field, and has made 7 of 10 from three.

And for people who said Sexton couldn’t shoot, he’s making 92.7% of his free throws.  People who can’t shoot don’t do that.

Whether or not Hill will be happy coming off the bench could be an issue, but at least for now, Sexton should get the majority of the playing time.

He still needs to get better defensively, but he does seem to make an effort on that end of the floor.

Sam Dekker is still a ways from being back, but we felt he was miscast as a power forward before he was hurt, but maybe he fits better as Osman’s backup after deals are made to move veterans like Smith and Korver.

And of course, when Kevin Love returns, that will cause Drew to make another adjustment, probably moving Nance to the bench.

The point is finding the right combination of players who can play together with the new pace of play established by the new coach.

It also appears that Tristan Thompson is taking a leadership role in the locker room, something very important for a younger group of players.  They need one of their own to hold players accountable.

We aren’t saying the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to make the playoffs this season, but we also don’t think this is a 2-12 team either, the Wizards’ game notwithstanding.

More changes will be coming, as it would not be shocking to see Korver, in particular, moved to a playoff contender soon.  But it looks like Drew is open to seeing who is playing well, and giving them more time.

That’s how it should work.

JK

 

 

Bigger Market For Kluber Or Carrasco?

When baseball’s GM meetings took place a week ago, the rumors started that the Cleveland Indians were willing to move some of their veterans, excluding MVP candidates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Then came word the Tribe was talking to the Yankees about starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in a big time trade.

That got us thinking…who would the fans rather see moved, and more importantly, who might bring the haul if they were moved.

Certainly, Kluber has had the more accomplished career.  He’s a two time Cy Young Award winner, has finished in the top three in the voting four times, and is coming off his first 20 win season.

Carrasco has been one of the sports’ best starting pitchers since 2015, winning 60 games over the past four seasons, with an ERA under 4.00 each season.  He has fanned 200 or more hitters in three of those seasons.

However, Kluber is older, he’ll be 33 on April 10th, and has more miles on his arm, having thrown 200 or more innings in each of the last five seasons. It also appears to many people that his arm slot became lower as the season went on in 2018. Kluber has the longer contract, which would give potential targets cost certainty for the next three seasons. 

But the deal is for big dollars, he will earn $17 million in 2019, $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021.  Those last two years are at a team option.

Carrasco is signed for the 2019 season with a club option for 2020, at a deal that is far below what his performance has merited.  He is making slightly over $7 million for ’19, and has a club option for $9.5 million for 2020.

Based on this information, Carrasco might bring back more in a trade than the Indians’ ace.  The lure of getting a top notch starting pitcher at below market dollars could bring a huge return from other teams.

The market would seem to be contending teams for Kluber, while Carrasco could interest teams that are building for a playoff run in 2019. 

Regardless, teams that would be a good match for the Indians would be organizations that have a very good farm system, particularly with major league ready talent.

A perusal of the top farm systems in the sport show several teams that would be interested in adding a top of the rotation starting pitcher.  Those teams would be the Braves, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A’s, and Dodgers. The Tribe wants to get younger on the field and would likely be looking for a young, controllable pitcher as well. 

The Indians are able to consider such a move because of the depth of the starting rotation.  Let’s say Carrasco is moved.  The rotation would still be comprised of Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber.  

The fifth spot would be between Adam Plutko and either a decent veteran signed in free agency, or somebody obtained in the deal for Carrasco.  

Not many teams have that kind of rotation depth.  

By the way, we like the minor trade the Tribe made yesterday getting OF Jordan Luplow from Pittsburgh for utility man Erik Gonzalez.  

As we have said for years, we don’t believe Gonzalez will ever be a productive regular because of his lack of strike zone judgment.  His career strikeout to walk ratio is 79:9.

Luplow has hit .300 in AAA with a 857 OPS at that level, and is solid defensively.  That resume would put him in line to start in 2019 based on who the Indians have right now.  

We are sure there will be more to come.

MW