To draft a quarterback or not to draft a quarterback? That’s the debate raging amongst Browns’ fans and media as the NFL Draft approaches at the end of April.
We looked at the quarterbacks taken early in the draft from 2014-2023. We did not look at last year, because even with the success of Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix leading their teams to the playoffs, we don’t like to evaluate QBs based on one season.
There were 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round from 2014-2023, and 15 of them are currently starters in the league. At least for now. Anthony Richardson (’23) is included as the starter for Indianapolis, and the rumors are the Colts would like to replace them.
Based on that number half of the starting signal callers in the NFL right now were taken in the first round in this span. In reality, it’s a higher percentage because we have five teams who right now do not have a legitimate starter: Jets, Steelers, Browns, Raiders, and Giants.
So why do the Browns need to use a first round pick to draft a QB? Current data says 56% of the teams in the NFL have done it.
Now, let’s look at the teams with the best record in the league last season. Kansas City and Detroit were both 15-2 and they had Patrick Mahomes (10th overall in 2017) and Jared Goff (1st overall in 2016) at the helm.
The Vikings (14-3) had Sam Darnold (3rd overall in 2018) and Buffalo (13-4) has Josh Allen (7th overall in 2018). The lone exception of the best regular season records are the Super Bowl champion Eagles, who selected Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round in 2020.
To see if this is the exception, let’s look at 2023. The Ravens (13-4) had the best record and their QB is Lamar Jackson (32nd overall in 2018). Detroit, San Francisco, and Dallas were next at 12-5 and two of those squads have outliers in Brock Purdy (7th round) and Dak Prescott (4th round).
Of the 11 win teams, Buffalo (Allen), Miami (Tua Tagovailoa, 5th overall in 2020), Kansas City (Mahomes), Philadelphia (Hurts), and the Browns (the famed four QB season), three used first round QBs.
Obviously, teams can have great luck at the most important position in professional sports. Hurts, Prescott, and Purdy have all had success in the NFL, but that’s three out of 32 teams, less than 10%. In this age of gambling on anything sports related, does anyone really like those odds?
The proliferation of taking passers high in the draft comes and goes. In 2011, there were four taken, but only Cam Newton would be considered successful. The following year, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were the first two picks, with two more, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden selected later.
We remember people advocating for the Browns to take Tannehill. That would have been a solid choice.
Since 2016, there have been at least three QBs taken in the first round with the exception of the Kenny Pickett year in 2022. Fifteen quarterbacks have been taken in the top three picks of those nine drafts.
So, do the Browns need to take a quarterback early in this year’s draft? It seems that they do. That’s kind of the way every other team has gotten their guy.
Unless you want to go with luck being your guide. And no, we don’t mean Andrew Luck.
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