One of the problems with “sports revolutions” is sometimes the new idea gets carried too far. The NBA’s love of the three-point shot is one of those in our opinion.
The theory is sound. If you make 60% of your two point field goal attempts, you get 12 points. However, if you make just four shots from beyond the arc, you get the same 12 points.
Of course, this is predicated on shooting 40% from long range, and the league average is currently 36.6%. That doesn’t change the theory, because if you make half your shots from the field, you only need to make 33.3% of the long range attempts.
That Golden State won four titles around Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson (a.k.a. “The Splash Brothers) reinforced that shooting from long distance was the way to go.
Of course, this discounts that Curry is probably the greatest long-range shooter the game has ever seen. His career mark from behind the line is 42.7%, and feel free to scan above to see what the current league average is.
As for Thompson? He knocks them down at a 41.4% rate.
If you have two shooters like this, we would probably play that way too.
This season, NBA teams on average are taking 35 three-point shots per contest. Just 10 years ago, before the Warriors run to titles, the number of three-pointers was just 21 per game. And in the “good ol’ days”, just 20 years ago (LeBron James was part of the league as a rookie), that number was 14.9 long range shots.
We aren’t saying the three-point line should be eliminated. It’s been a part of the game since the ABA was around. What we are saying is maybe players who cannot make the shot on a regular basis shouldn’t be taking it. And make no mistake, players are encouraged to develop the shot.
If a player can shoot like Curry and Thompson.
The problem with this new style of basketball is that it is kind of forcing players who are borderline from long distance to go away from the mid-range shot. And that’s where we are at with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cleveland is one of the NBA’s worst shooting teams from three-point territory, in fact 5th worst, behind only Memphis, San Antonio, Orlando, and Detroit. However, they take the 12th most three-point shots in the league.
Orlando and Detroit are teams in the bottom three in attempts, while Memphis and San Antonio take even more than the Cavs. Which style works more? Well, the Magic have the same record as Cleveland, while the other three teams are near the bottom of the league standings.
To us, the problem for J.B. Bickerstaff’s squad is will the percentage of made shots come up as the season goes on? Right now, only one member of the wine and gold shoots better than the league average, and that’s Sam Merrill, who just started to play with the injuries to Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, and he’s taken just 85 threes.
Dean Wade is at league average, and he generally only takes threes.
The high volume shooters are all at 35% and below. Donovan Mitchell takes almost nine per game and Max Strus is at 8.3. Caris LeVert takes 5.7 attempts, but only makes them at a 33% clip.
Georges Niang, who had a career mark of 40% coming to Cleveland, is making just 33% in a Cavs’ uniform. And Isaac Okoro sits at 35.9%, but he still seems reticent to take the shot, especially if he misses early in a game.
The Cavaliers are telling us they have adopted more of a three-point centric offense since the injuries to two starters and are succeeding because of it. They are 6-3 since Garland and Mobley were hurt.
We would say it is not the style of play, rather the quality of opponent. Of the six wins, only Dallas (7th in the West) and Houston (8th) would play in the post-season if the season ended today. The only loss to a non-playoff team is Monday’s defeat at Toronto.
We would like to see Cleveland take threes but be a bit more judicious in terms of when and who. It can definitely be a weapon, but as we always say, a made two is better than a missed three.
Is that analytics?
Cleveland Sports Perspective 