Analyzing The Guards’ Offensive Woes.

The Cleveland Guardians raised their record to 66-56 on August 24th when they beat San Diego 7-0. Since then, it has not been pretty for Terry Francona’s squad and ugly for the offense.

Cleveland has lost 8 of 11 since that win, scoring more than three runs in a game just three times (all of the wins) and being shutout four times in that span.

Seven of those contests were against Seattle, with the Mariners taking six, but we would not say the Guardians were dominated, but their hitters were. Two of the games went to extra innings, and in three others, Mariners’ hitters could muster only three runs in each game.

They’ve had more than one extra base hit in just four of the last 11, winning three of the four. And they have just three home runs, all coming in wins–Jose Ramirez connected in the 4-3 win at Seattle, and Josh Naylor hit one in the 5-1 win over the Orioles, and another in last night’s win over Kansas City

The Guardians don’t walk much (enough) as a team any way, ranking 12th in the American League, but the base on balls have hard to come by too. They’ve drawn more than three walks in just two games, but Sunday night’s game was one, as they drew five, but two of those were intentional in the 10th inning.

They’ve had nine hits in half of the games, but without mixing in some doubles, triples, and homers, it’s very difficult to score unless you string hits together, which currently they are not doing.

The Guardians don’t hit the long ball but are 6th in the AL in doubles and 3rd in triples, so they have extra base hit ability, but it has disappeared as of late.

It doesn’t seem like any more help will be coming from the farm system either. Despite the offensive issues, when the rosters expanded to 28 on September 1st, the Guards brought up Ernie Clement, who was hitting .238 in AAA, and was sent to the minors because he hit .203 with the big club.

Clement seems to be superfluous on a roster that already has Owen Miller and Tyler Freeman on it, especially when the latter has problem getting at bats.

Nolan Jones and/or Will Brennan (.360 OBP/801 OPS) would seem to be better fits, particularly with Oscar Gonzalez in a bit of a slump and Myles Straw in a massive one.

We’ve all seen the numbers on Straw. He’s hit .159 (382 OPS) since the All-Star break, and we’ve said this repeatedly over the years, it doesn’t matter how good you are defensively (and Straw is very, very good), if you can’t hit, you can’t play regularly in the major leagues.

Apparently, unless you play for Cleveland.

We aren’t sure if Will Benson can succeed in the bigs, but he’s received just 42 plate appearances over the last month, so it’s not like he’s received a real big chance.

We also know about the offensive issues at the catcher’s spot, except for Luke Maile’s hot August nights (nod to Neil Diamond), so the 8th and 9th spots in the batting order have become designated outs for opposing pitchers.

The frustration for fans is the lack of activity by the manager or the front office. We respect and acknowledge Francona’s impact on this team, but we’ve also said his biggest weakness is his patience can turn into stubbornness.

Despite all this, the Guardians are still tied for first in the Central. If they can start scoring runs again, they can still be playing in October.

Cavs Make A Big Swing, Now How Does It Work?

We always thought the Cleveland Cavaliers would get involved when Donovan Mitchell was traded, but not in a million years did we think the Cavs would be the team getting the three-time All-Star.

First, kudos to Koby Altman and Mike Gansey for swinging for the fences and getting a player that is one of the top 20 players in the league, and they didn’t have to surrender either Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, or Evan Mobley.

However, the proof will be when the wine and gold take the court in the regular season.

Going into the off-season, we felt the Cavaliers needed to shore up the small forward spot (#3) and get more outside shooting.

After this deal, those needs are still there, and we also didn’t like the small backcourt when it was manned by Garland and Collin Sexton, who was sent the Jazz in this trade. Guess what, Mitchell is only 6’1″, so Cleveland is still small at guard.

Ochai Agbaji was supposed to help with the shooting, and he was also sent west in this transaction, and Lauri Markkanen was part of the unique trio of seven footers J.B. Bickerstaff started last season and was a problem for opposing teams.

He’s gone too.

Mitchell is a dynamic scorer, averaging 23.9 points per game in his career, but our question with him (and we aren’t going to hide it now) has always been can he be the best player on a title contending team? We don’t think he is.

However, that could be a moot point because soon, maybe this year, Mobley will be the wine and gold’s best player, and by the way, we also said that a year ago when people were debating about Garland, Sexton, or Allen.

Last season, Mitchell averaged 20.5 shots per game, and Cleveland’s leader was Garland at 17.3. No doubt, this is the most talented team Mitchell has played with. With Utah, the Jazz’ second best player (or best early in Mitchell’s career) was Rudy Gobert, a great defensive player but not someone defenses focused on.

The third best player was Joe Ingles, who we really like as a player, or Mike Conley or Bojan Bogdanovich. In Cleveland, we will play with two All-Stars from last year in Garland and Allen, and Mobley.

If the Cavs’ trio from last year keep improving, and they should they are all very young, especially Garland and Mobley, Bickerstaff would seem to have a quartet of very good players to build around.

So hopefully, Mitchell comes in with a “just want to win” attitude and isn’t hung up on number of shots he gets or points he scores.

Again, we don’t know that he thinks that way either.

Who replaces Markkanen as a starter? We would try Caris LeVert or Cedi Osman there, because he’s a better offensive threat and taller than Isaac Okoro.

That assumes Altman and Gansey are done making moves this off-season, and we know they are always looking to improve the roster.

If LeVert starts, the bench would be made up of Kevin Love, Okoro, Osman, and we would guess Lamar Stevens and Dean Wade.

Not a lot of shooting in that group except for Love, and really Okoro and Stevens are very similar players.

We have seen speculation that Okoro could start, but maybe Stevens is a better choice unless Okoro makes a big leap offensively. At the end of last season, other teams stopped guarding the second-year player out of Auburn, and that causes problems for the offense.

Again, perhaps another move is coming.

Give the Cavs tremendous credit for going out and getting perhaps the best player on the market this off-season. Should bring a lot of excitement to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse this winter.

Evaluating Minor Leaguers Isn’t An Exact Science

The late, great Cleveland sports talk host Pete Franklin used to say something similar to this about minor league baseball players–until proven otherwise, prospects should be considered suspects.

The meaning being no matter how good a player performs in the minors, the big leagues are different.

Former Rockies’ and Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as baseball’s newest phenom after hitting .328 with 16 homers (978 OPS) at AAA in 1977. He wound up playing just 515 games in the majors, hitting .259 with 32 dingers (745 OPS).

Gregg Jefferies was another phenom after hitting .367 in AA with 20 homers in the Mets’ organization (1021 OPS). He wound up playing parts of 14 years in the majors, and made two All Star teams, but he never became the superstar he was projected to be.

More recently, the top prospect in baseball in 2013 was Texas’ Jurickson Profar after he hit .281 (820 OPS) at age 19 in AA as a shortstop. Profar is still in the big leagues, but has a career .237 batting average (709 OPS) and is currently a LF for the Padres.

No doubt the ranking of minor league prospects has become more sophisticated in recent years. Among the current players who were named the sports’ best are Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Adley Rutchman, Wander Franco, and Bobby Witt Jr.

However, here are two players who were considered top five prospects in all of baseball who are struggling. They may get everything to click at some point, but right now, they haven’t fulfilled what others thought they could accomplish.

Detroit took Spencer Torkelson with the first pick in the 2020 draft, and to date, in 264 at bats, he’s hit five homers and batted .197. He’s back in AAA with a .228 batting average and coincidentally, five long balls.

The Angels’ Jo Adell was a consensus top five prospect after hitting .289 with 23 home runs in AAA at age 22. To date, the majors have been a much bigger challenge, with a .215 batting average and 13 dingers in almost 500 plate appearances.

Why do we bring this up? Because he see various comments from Guardians’ fans pining for the youngest team in the sport to bring up even more rookies.

Complicating the matter is the Guards being in contention for the playoffs. If they were on pace to lose 90+ games, it would be a no-brainer to bring guys up and play them. So when Nolan Jones goes two weeks doing nothing at the plate, Terry Francona can’t afford to be patient.

And nothing causes a manager to lose the trust of his players than putting someone out on the field who doesn’t deserve to be there.

Also, just because someone is highly touted as a prospect doesn’t mean they will be better players at the big league level than the person currently at that spot.

For example, we think Brayan Rocchio is going to be a very good big league shortstop. However, to say he is better than Amed Rosario right now is crazy. He might be, but no one should be stating that as a fact.

We are sure Tigers’ and Angels’ supporters were saying the same thing about Torkelson and Adell not so long ago.