Tribe Coming Down The Stretch. What Does That Mean In 2020?

The Cleveland Indians start play on Sunday with just 21 games remaining in this COVID abbreviated season. And they are in the midst of a pennant race, or are they?

Currently, the Tribe is a half game behind the Chicago White Sox, who sit in first place and they are virtually tied with Minnesota for second place.

With eight teams in the American League making the playoffs, it would be shocking in all three Central Division leaders didn’t advance to the post-season. There are no first round byes, so the trio is playing for playoff seeding and right now, the Sox would take on the Yankees, the Indians would get the Houston Astros, and Twins would take on Oakland.

Chicago and Cleveland would be designated as the home team for each game of the first round, best of three set, because the Indians have the edge by percentage points over Minnesota, and would be designated as the Central Division’s second place team, with the Twins getting a wild card position.

Of course, the lack of separation between the three teams make this situation very fluid. By the end of today, the Indians could be the 7th seed as a wild card, or the third seed as division leader.

Cleveland has a three game series at Target Field next weekend against the Twins, and host a four game set vs. the Pale Hose the last week of the season. The Tribe is currently 3-4 vs. Minnesota and are 4-2 against the Sox.

The White Sox host the Twins for a four game set, after the Tribe plays Rocco Baldelli’s squad, and of course, has the four game set in Cleveland, while the Twins have seven straight games vs. the other two contenders, followed by three against the NL Central leading Cubs.

We will know a lot about the Twins after that potentially brutal 10 game stretch.

Within the three teams, the young White Sox have fared the worst so far, going 4-8 against the other two top teams in the Central. They have dominated everyone else, going 20-7 against the rest of the schedule.

Minnesota has fared the best, going 8-5 in games between the three squads, with Cleveland being 5-6.

Chicago has ridden their offense so far, ranking second in the AL in runs scored per game at 5.26. But in six games against the Cleveland pitching staff, they’ve scored just 17 tallies, and that’s just 2.8 per contest.

The Twins have had a lot of injuries to date, which has hurt their highly touted offense. They’ve had Josh Donaldson for just 11 games and catcher Mitch Garver for just 17, so they rank just 11th in runs scored per game at 4.38.

FYI, the Indians average just 4.18 runs/game.

Against, the Tribe, Minnesota has scored only 18 runs in seven contests. That’s 2.6 per game.

So, while the AL Central top tier will probably all make it to October, that doesn’t mean the games aren’t important. Having the opportunity to bat last in the first three games during the post-season is important.

As for the overall AL post-season raced, it’s not much of one. Currently, Baltimore and Detroit are the first two teams looking in, and they are both three games behind the eighth spot, with Seattle four games out. With only between 20-25 games remaining, that will be tough to make up.

Both of those squads are below .500, so the Indians need to only win six games to probably be in, while we figure around 35-25 will get you home field for the first round. To do that, Cleveland needs to go 11-10 the rest of the way.

The bigger thing to watch for the Tribe is how they play against the Twins, Cubs, and White Sox coming down the stretch. Those are the best team remaining on the schedule.

We know Cleveland can beat the likes of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, but they are 5-8 against the three teams mentioned before (meaning they are 19-7 against everyone else).

It’s not September baseball as we know it because of the expanded playoff system. Can you imagine the excitement about the division race, under the normal format? Because likely one and perhaps, two teams could be left out, and the wild card teams would have just the one game to get to the Division Series.

Still, the Tribe has questions. Can their hitting survive games where better pitchers are facing them? Can the bullpen remain solid? Can they find some production out of the outfield?

That’s the reason to watch these last 21 games, even if it seems the Indians will qualify for the playoffs.

Baker Deserves The Benefit Of The Doubt, But Still A Big Year For Him

There is no question that the Cleveland Browns were a disjointed mess in 2019. If you think of them as a jigsaw puzzle, there were just too many pieces that were either missing or didn’t fit together.

It didn’t seem like the offensive coordinator fit with the head coach, and the general manager traded for an elite wide receiver for a group which had success running the football during the second half of the 2018 schedule.

Because of inexperience or perhaps star worship, head coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator seemed to feel obligated to force the ball to Odell Beckham Jr., and as a result the Browns got away from the things that led to a solid finish the year before.

All of this contributed to second year quarterback Baker Mayfield taking a step backwards.

The former first overall pick in ’19 saw his completion percentage drop (63.8% to 59.4%), his yards per passing attempt diminish (7.7 to 7.2), and his interception rate increase from 2.9% to 3.9%.

Not exactly what you want to see in terms of growth from your supposed franchise quarterback.

Did Mayfield prepare his body for the rigors of an NFL season during his first off-season? We believe he would admit (and has) he should have worked harder.

Did he let his success as a rookie go to his head a bit? Look, part of the reason John Dorsey chose him first overall was his self-confidence, so without question, he likely felt pretty good about himself after leading the Browns to their best record since 2007 as a rook.

This season, the chaos surrounding the team seems to be gone. Expectations has been tempered by last year’s disappointing 6-10 record, and new coach Kevin Stefanski seems more like a CEO than a football coach.

Stefanski came from Minnesota, where they loved to run the football (4th most attempts in the NFL in 2019) and so we would anticipate the emphasis in Cleveland will be establishing the run, much like it was in Mayfield’s first season.

That reliance on the ground game doesn’t mean Mayfield isn’t a “franchise” quarterback either. The Seahawks ran the ball the third most times in the league a year ago and no one thinks Russell Wilson is just along for the ride.

So, while some fans and media members have written off Mayfield as the future for the Browns, we chalk up his performance as a by product of the mess surrounding him last season.

The offense was different and you can’t tell us everyone in the organization felt pressure to force the ball to the shiny new toy that was Beckham. We think you could feel it from the moment the season kicked off in Cleveland against the Titans.

However, there is no question this is a huge year for the third year passer. A season that looked more like 2019 than 2018 will no doubt put question marks in the heads of the folks who run football operation in Berea. Andrew Berry didn’t draft him and Stefanski wasn’t given input on the choice either.

So, there is pressure on Mayfield to perform well this season, and without a normal training camp and even a half of pre-season play (probably the only action he would have seen), he is at a slight disadvantage.

But it seems the things the new coaching staff want to do offensively should emphasize the quarterback’s skill set. And certainly, the talent the Browns have accumulated helps immensely.

We are willing to write off last season as a result of the dysfunction within the building for Baker Mayfield. He won’t have that benefit this season. He has to produce.

Tribe Got Talent, Just Not What Was Needed

The Cleveland Indians did pull off a deal before the Major League Baseball trading deadline, in fact, it was a mega-deal, perhaps the biggest in the game.

It was the type of deal a rebuilding team makes, the kind that accelerates the process of returning to the post-season.

However, the Indians currently reside in first place in the American League Central Division. We are sure the Twins and White Sox, the other two teams vying for the division lead are thrilled that the Tribe dealt their #2 starter, Mike Clevinger, to the San Diego Padres.

Team president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff got a lot of talent in the transaction, they usually do. But the Indians need help right now. And once again, this seems like a trade made for the future.

Clevinger and OF Greg Allen and a player to be named later to San Diego for OF/1B Josh Naylor (whose brother was the Tribe’s first round draft pick in 2018), P Cal Quantrill, C Austin Hedges, and three minor leaguers who were in the Padres’ top 15 prospects according to Baseball America, SS Gabriel Arias (#9), LHP Joey Cantillo (#11), and INF Owen Miller (#15).

Cleveland has a glaring weakness in the outfield, where they collectively have a batting average under .200, but didn’t address it with a proven bat.

We like Naylor, a left-handed hitter, but he has 289 big league at bats. He does have great numbers away from Petco Park, a lifetime 807 OPS, and his reputation is that of a guy who works the count and doesn’t strikeout a great deal. He should get time in LF. He hasn’t faced a lot of southpaws (51 AB’s), but has 16 hits in those opportunities.

Quantrill, a right-hander, should claim a spot in the Tribe bullpen, and could convert to the rotation next spring. A former 8th overall pick in 2016, he has a 2.60 ERA in 17 innings this year, with 18 whiffs.

Hedges is 27 and has been around for six seasons in San Diego. He’s an excellent defensive catcher, which is what the Tribe wants in the position, but can’t hit. He has a career .199 average (616 OPS). He’s not eligible for free agency until 2023.

As for the prospects, Arias and Cantillo haven’t played above the Class A level. Arias has some pop in his bat (17 HR last season), but strikes out a lot (over 128 in his last two minor league seasons). Cantillo is a power arm, with 144 punchouts in 111 innings in 2019.

Miller is older (23) and has a lifetime minor league batting average of .307 (808 OPS), and primarily is a second baseman. He probably would have been at the AAA level this year, if there was a minor league season.

Still, fans should be disappointed that Naylor was the only thing done to correct a huge weakness on a contending team, especially when the Indians gave up perhaps the best pitcher on the market. While Clevinger was the Tribe’s #2 starter, he’s an ace for most teams in the league.

Meanwhile, Cleveland still has a gaping hole in CF, and apparently, the organization spun the wheel and it landed on Oscar Mercado, who will get another opportunity according to some.

The Indians made a deal from depth, because they can replace Clevinger with Zach Plesac, who will start Tuesday night in Kansas City and they still have Triston McKenzie in the rotation. And they have Adam Plutko, Scott Moss, and Logan Allen, among others in reserve.

However, they didn’t get the professional bat they desperately needed, and that’s why there is a tinge of regret in the move. Perhaps Naylor fills the void, but again, no one will know right away.

What the Tribe did was add more prospects to an already strong farm system, particularly at the lower levels. And while Arias has some ability, Cleveland is filled with prospects who play middle infield spots, including four of their top ten players.

Remember the old kids game, Kick the Can? That’s what it seems the organization is doing, kicking the can down the road of contention. They are getting like the Browns in terms of promising to try to be all in next season.

It’s a strange move by a team in first place. Instead of making a deal to put them over the hump in 2020, the Indians looked toward 2021 and beyond.