When baseball’s GM meetings took place a week ago, the rumors started that the Cleveland Indians were willing to move some of their veterans, excluding MVP candidates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.
Then came word the Tribe was talking to the Yankees about starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in a big time trade.
That got us thinking…who would the fans rather see moved, and more importantly, who might bring the haul if they were moved.
Certainly, Kluber has had the more accomplished career. He’s a two time Cy Young Award winner, has finished in the top three in the voting four times, and is coming off his first 20 win season.
Carrasco has been one of the sports’ best starting pitchers since 2015, winning 60 games over the past four seasons, with an ERA under 4.00 each season. He has fanned 200 or more hitters in three of those seasons.
However, Kluber is older, he’ll be 33 on April 10th, and has more miles on his arm, having thrown 200 or more innings in each of the last five seasons. It also appears to many people that his arm slot became lower as the season went on in 2018. Kluber has the longer contract, which would give potential targets cost certainty for the next three seasons.
But the deal is for big dollars, he will earn $17 million in 2019, $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021. Those last two years are at a team option.
Carrasco is signed for the 2019 season with a club option for 2020, at a deal that is far below what his performance has merited. He is making slightly over $7 million for ’19, and has a club option for $9.5 million for 2020.
Based on this information, Carrasco might bring back more in a trade than the Indians’ ace. The lure of getting a top notch starting pitcher at below market dollars could bring a huge return from other teams.
The market would seem to be contending teams for Kluber, while Carrasco could interest teams that are building for a playoff run in 2019.
Regardless, teams that would be a good match for the Indians would be organizations that have a very good farm system, particularly with major league ready talent.
A perusal of the top farm systems in the sport show several teams that would be interested in adding a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Those teams would be the Braves, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A’s, and Dodgers. The Tribe wants to get younger on the field and would likely be looking for a young, controllable pitcher as well.
The Indians are able to consider such a move because of the depth of the starting rotation. Let’s say Carrasco is moved. The rotation would still be comprised of Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber.
The fifth spot would be between Adam Plutko and either a decent veteran signed in free agency, or somebody obtained in the deal for Carrasco.
Not many teams have that kind of rotation depth.
By the way, we like the minor trade the Tribe made yesterday getting OF Jordan Luplow from Pittsburgh for utility man Erik Gonzalez.
As we have said for years, we don’t believe Gonzalez will ever be a productive regular because of his lack of strike zone judgment. His career strikeout to walk ratio is 79:9.
Luplow has hit .300 in AAA with a 857 OPS at that level, and is solid defensively. That resume would put him in line to start in 2019 based on who the Indians have right now.
We are sure there will be more to come.
MW
Cleveland Sports Perspective 