Tribe Roster in ’19 Will Look Very Different.

Little by little, the Cleveland Indians we have come to know are leaving the team.  Some we knew quite well, others passed through quickly.

Lonnie Chisenhall, one of the longest tenured players in the organization signed a one year deal with the Pirates on the same day Josh Donaldson, who spent less than a month with the Tribe, signed with Atlanta.

And of course, there have been rumors of trades, mostly regarding more players who have been with the Indians since Terry Francona was hired prior to the 2013 season.

Players like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis, and Yan Gomes are primarily mentioned.

While not all of them will be traded (we think), there is no question the 2019 edition of the Cleveland Indians will look very different from the past.

Obviously, no matter what occurs in the next couple of months, the Tribe will be led by Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, both of whom finished in the top six in the American League MVP voting, and regardless of a trade, a stout starting rotation.

We have read comments from fans and media alike calling this a fire sale, or the Indians cutting payroll, but we don’t believe that’s the case.

Any moves made will involves redistributing the money the ownership can spend, because right now, they have a lot of money tied up in players in the decline phases of their careers.

Take Gomes, for example.  He is scheduled to make slightly over $7 million next season.  He’ll be 32 during the 2019 season, and had his best offensive season (762 OPS) since 2014 (785 OPS).

Why not trade him now after a good offensive season, in addition to his excellent defense and handling of a pitching staff?  And you give yourself some additional money to address other areas of need.

As for Kipnis, it’s a matter of moving a player who appears to have peaked in 2016 and is owed a lot of money next season.  It is doubtful the veteran will bring a lot in return because of his bloated salary.  In fact, the Indians may have to kick in some cash to make the deal.

Even if they have to throw in $4 million, that still gives the organization an extra $10 million to upgrade other areas.

And we still believe Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff will move one of the starting pitchers to bring in the biggest prize, a young controllable bat who can add depth to the batting order.

We still believe Carrasco will bring the biggest return.

It may not end there either.  The front office would love to move Yonder Alonso and/or Edwin Encarnacion freeing up more cash to spend, not to keep.

While we have seen some moves around baseball already, our guess is the Tribe will look to deal off some veterans before adding the new faces to the roster.

However, we reiterate that what the front office is doing to reallocating the payroll to try and prop the window open for several more years.  At the end of the season, we came to the realization that everyone in their normal lineup was over 30 years old, save for Lindor and Ramirez.

That’s not a recipe to get better, especially offensively.

That’s the off-season goal of the front office in our opinion, to get surround the two MVP candidates with players with upside.

That, and rebuild the bullpen.

MW

Texans Are Browns’ Toughest Foe Remaining.

We have always thought playing the NFL schedule game before the season starts is idiotic because so much happens during an NFL season, particularly injuries.

After the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Gregg Williams’ head coaching debut, the Browns rebounded to knock off Atlanta at home and followed up by breaking their 25 game losing streak on the road, beating the Bengals 35-20 on Sunday.

Now at 4-6-1, it appears the toughest remaining opponent on the schedule comes up next weekend when the Browns take on Houston, currently leading the AFC South at 7-3.

Another win and the Browns will be in playoff contention, believe it or not.

This is not to say Cleveland will be favored in any of those remaining games, heck, only two of them will be at home, a December 9th visit from Carolina and the Bengals come in for a game two days before Christmas.

However, no one would be shocked if Gregg Williams’ team won any of the five contests left on the slate, which also includes road games at Denver (5-6) and Baltimore (6-5).

This is a different team than the one that lost to Pittsburgh on October 28th.

Changing the play calling has helped Baker Mayfield be a more efficient quarterback, completing almost 74% of his passes over the last three weeks, with nine touchdown throws and just one interception.

Gone are the constant downfield throws which Hue Jackson used last year with DeShone Kizer and Todd Haley continued over the first eight games this season.  Mayfield is throwing a lot of short, quick routes, getting the ball out of his hand quickly, and using his accuracy.

That doesn’t mean he’s become a dink and dunk guy though.  When need be, he can fire the ball downfield, like the pass over the middle to TE David Njoku on Sunday.

Speaking of Njoku, we don’t hear (or see) the dropped passes that had some in the media suggesting he is a bust anymore.

Nick Chubb continues to impress as well, still averaging over five yards per carry.  Chubb finally passed the traded Carlos Hyde in carries against the Bengals, and he’s been the featured back for the past five games.  That’s how the old regime forced the ball into Hyde’s hands.

Hyde is a reliable back for sure, but Chubb is too and he can break the big run as well, which makes him the more dynamic runner.

Another observation we have on the Browns is on defense.  Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, both high first round draft picks get a lot of attention, and rightly so, but watching Sunday’s game, man, is Joe Schobert a heck of a football player.

It seems whenever the defense makes a good play, he is in the center of it.  He plays and run and the pass both very well, and as Williams pointed out earlier this season, he is responsible for making sure everyone is lined up in the right place too.

The pick was criticized when it was made, people blaming analytics for the choice because Schobert doesn’t look like Dick Butkus.  But in today’s NFL, he’s a perfect middle linebacker.

He made the Pro Bowl a year ago, and we would not be surprised if he made it again.  He’s that good.

JD

 

Solid Efforts Starting To Appear For Cavs

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won two straight and now no longer have the worst record in the NBA.  Add in a very close loss at home to the Lakers on Wednesday night, and you have three consecutive solid efforts for Larry Drew’s crew.

Once again, the chief reason for this is slowing down the pace.  Cleveland is now 28th in the NBA in pace.  We have said it before, if you are short on talent, it is ludicrous to try to run up and down the court with squads that have more talent than you.

The Cavs are taking better shots too.  They are up to 17th in the league in field goal percentage, and although they don’t take many three point shots, they are last in the NBA in attempts at 23.6 (the Rockets and Bucks both take more than 40), they are 7th in the Association in percentage made at 36.3%.

They have cut way back on the number of possessions in which they just come down the floor and jack up the first open shot, no matter if it is one the shooter can reasonable make.

They run when they get the opportunity, and if the numbers aren’t their, they are patient.  They are also third in the NBA in offensive rebounds, led by Tristan Thompson, who is second in the league in that category, so they extend a lot of possessions.

First round draft pick Collin Sexton is playing much better too.  The rookie, who was getting criticized heavily by some veterans, has settled down and shown he has game.

He’s scoring 14.6 points per night, and since moving into the starting lineup when George Hill got injured, he’s just under 20 per night, shooting 50% or better in six of those eight games.

Yes, we would like him to average more than 2.4 assists per game, but none of the Cavs have gaudy assist totals.  Kevin Love still leads the team at 3.5 and Hill is next at 3.0.  Sexton is fifth behind a pair of forwards, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman.

Right now, opposing teams are playing off of Sexton, seeing if he can make the jumper consistently.  If he continues to do it, that will open up driving lane and hopefully, the rook will get defenders to collapse and then find the open man.

Another change Drew has made is dusting off a guy we have been begging to play more in David Nwaba.

The soon to be 26 year old from Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo isn’t spectacular, but he’s the best perimeter defender on the roster, and having him, Osman, and Thompson on the floor at the beginning of games gives Drew a defensive presence.

Putting Nance in there provides another.

Teams are leaving Nwaba open from beyond the three point line, and we would like him to not concede and shoot that shot.  He is open for a reason.  We know the long range two is not a good shot analytically, but a made 22 foot shot is better than a missed three.

We understand the Cavs are going to have ups and downs, but the last three games are encouraging and yes, watchable.

You are starting to see some roles develop.  Thompson is becoming a leader.  Jordan Clarkson is become a go-to scorer in the fourth quarter.  Nance and Nwaba are energy guys.

That’s a good sign.

The Cavs are 4-8 after losing their first six, and it looks like Drew has provided a trusting voice for the players.  Beating two playoff teams in a row in Philadelphia and Houston should solidify that trust.

JK

Keeping Lindor Should Be Tribe’s Priority

Earlier this week, Major League Baseball announced a television broadcast contract extension with Fox, which will pay each team an additional $24 million starting in 2022.

Coincidentally, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor is eligible for free agency following the 2021 season.  So, we’ve found a good way for the Indians to spend that extra TV money.

We have pounded the drum on this for the past few years.  If you can keep Lindor with the Indians for a total of at least ten seasons, or through the 2024 campaign (when he will be 31 years old), we will become universally recognized as the best position player ever to don a Cleveland baseball uniform.

Lindor currently has accumulated 23.9 WAR over his four years with the Indians.  The all time franchise leader is Napoleon Lajoie with 79.9.  The recently turned 25 year old shortstop had 7.9 WAR in 2018, and at his age, it would not be a stretch to think he will improve for the next several years.

So, let’s say he averages 9.0 WAR over the next six years.  That would get him to 77.9 for his career, very close to Lajoie’s total, and ahead of Tris Speaker for second place.

However, this statistic has Kenny Lofton 4th in club history.  We loved Lofton as a player, and believe he should have received serious Hall of Fame consideration, but he’s not the fourth best position player in team history.

Let’s look at traditional statistics.

Lindor has 665 base hits currently, getting 183 a year ago.  If he averages 180 over the next six years, he would have 1745 knocks, which would rank 5th on the Indians’ all time list.

Home runs?  The switch-hitting Lindor has 98 dingers to date.  Averaging 30 through the 2024 season would give him 278 homers, second in club history behind recently inducted Hall of Famer Jim Thome.  Keep in mind, Lindor has hit more than 30 in each of the last two years.

As for RBIs, Frankie is sitting at 310, getting 92 last year.  If he averages 90 through ’24, that would give him 850, tying him for 7th with Ken Keltner in Indians’ annals.

Our guess is Lindor will be moved down in the batting order as soon as this year to take advantage of his pop, so that estimate might be conservative.

And in runs scored, Lindor has 377 runs, scoring 129 in 2018.  Averaging 100 per year for the next six seasons would give him 977 tallies, putting him 3rd on the Tribe’s all time list.

So, as you can see, keeping Lindor for ten seasons puts him near the top in most of the major categories in Indians’ history.  And we were conservative with some of the numbers because, so he might rank higher.

Keeping him beyond that, or dare say, for his entire career would probably put him at the top of those lists.

Also, at 25, and with just three full big league seasons under his belt, he has three top 10 MVP finishes.

We understand it takes two to tango, and Lindor has to want to stay here for awhile.  But we say make it worth his while.

The big contracts this off-season will be Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Once those deals are agreed to, the Tribe front office should have a good idea of what it will take to sign the shortstop.

We don’t want to hear about being a small to mid market in this case.  Lindor is one of the top ten, if not five players in baseball.  If you have to go over your comfort level to keep him, you have to do it.

You drafted and signed this guy, and watched him become a great player.  They need to make sure he never plays anywhere else.

And your fan base deserves a player who never plays anywhere else too.

MW

LeBron’s Version Is A Bit Of Hindsight.

With LeBron James coming back to Cleveland as a member of the Lakers tomorrow night, the events of the summer of 2017 is being rehashed, particularly the trade of Kyrie Irving to Boston.

As we said and thought at the time, despite the narrative LeBron and his camp what to put out there now, this is what we think.

First, we don’t believe James and Irving could have co-existed in 2017-18, because Irving was tired of playing with James, and having two all star players not getting along is a recipe for disaster.

Look at what happened in Chicago with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  Remember the whole Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant issues with the Lakers.  You can’t force two guys to get along when one party doesn’t want it to work.

Second, the Irving trade rumors came before the ’17 Draft, and when David Griffin was still GM.  Was Griffin working because owner Dan Gilbert wanted Irving out?  Or did Irving ask the organization for a deal?

We believe Griffin knew the only way to improve the roster, and make it deeper, was to move a very valuable commodity in Irving.  Getting a solid point guard in return and adding another young, athletic player would help the Cavs win another title.

That was supposedly the move with Phoenix, with Cleveland getting Eric Bledsoe and the 4th pick in the 2017 draft.

Were talks really going on with the Suns?  We don’t know for sure, but the rumors were out there.

It was reported that James did not want the deal to happen, although, behind the scenes, he was perfectly happy with the move, because he thought (and we agree) that Irving plays for himself first, which is against James’ style.

However, when he was asked if he would commit to the Cavs long term if Irving was not moved, James declined.

Now, thinking about this at the time (not now with hindsight being 20/20), why would you hold on to Irving without a commitment from James to keep the “Big Three” together for a few more years?

If he wanted to, James could’ve killed the deal if we would have been willing to sign a contract extension.

Without that, the Cavs were looking at a rebuild after the 2017-18 season anyway, because a Irving-Kevin Love led team isn’t going to win an NBA title.

Look, he get that James didn’t (doesn’t) trust Dan Gilbert, and he has every reason not to, but Gilbert had to do what was best for the future of the Cavaliers.  And if Brooklyn would have played to expectations a year ago, maybe Luca Doncic, Jaren Jackson, or another top rookie is in Cleveland today.

Kyrie Irving is a popular player in today’s NBA.  He’s flashy, he can handle, and he is a tremendous finisher at the rim.  In short, he’s a highlight reel player.

However, he’s a poor defender and not exactly a great or willing passer.

It’s not in James’ best interest image wise to say he was in favor of the Cavaliers moving on from Kyrie to improve ball movement and defense, which would have helped in beating Golden State.

Having James and Irving at odds going into last season would not have helped the wine and gold.  Getting prepared for life after LeBron is just being prudent.

Now, the plan didn’t work because the Brooklyn draft pick wound up being the 8th pick and not a top five choice.

That’s the biggest problem with the trade.

JK

What Does Drew Do With Returning Cavs?

The Cleveland Cavaliers had their best game of the season Tuesday night when they beat the Charlotte Hornets convincingly at Quicken Loans Arena.

They followed that up the next night getting hammered by the Washington Wizards on the road.

That’s the life of a team trying to discover themselves after they lost the beat player in the league.  They have to realize what happened the night before has no bearing on the next game.

You have to have sound habits and solid defense every night to win in the NBA.  Consider that game one of the “lessons” former coach Tyronn Lue talked about when training camp started in September.

Larry Drew’s next challenge will be fitting in the returning injured players.  For whatever reasons, and we know analytically it doesn’t make sense, the Cavs have played better with Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Jr. at the big man spots.

So, it would seem putting Cedi Osman back at the small forward spot is a no-brainer.  JR Smith has played well defensively, but he is still shooting just 35% from the floor, and just 32% from three.  Osman hasn’t done much better, but might be better served with the slower pace, taking more mid-range jumpers and getting to the rim.

And, we have always thought Osman was a solid defender too.

Kyle Korver should be back tomorrow night, but Drew has already said David Nwaba will not lose playing time, and why should he?

Nwaba has the highest offensive rating on the team (which we would say is not sustainable), and has the second best (behind Nance) defensive rating.  He’s shooting 51.5% from the floor, which isn’t likely to continue, but it is what it is.

It is also hard to imagine Collin Sexton will go back to the bench when George Hill returns.

Since becoming a starter, the rookie has averaged 18.8 points per game.  We would like to see more than 2.5 assists per night, but he’s shooting 48% from the field, and has made 7 of 10 from three.

And for people who said Sexton couldn’t shoot, he’s making 92.7% of his free throws.  People who can’t shoot don’t do that.

Whether or not Hill will be happy coming off the bench could be an issue, but at least for now, Sexton should get the majority of the playing time.

He still needs to get better defensively, but he does seem to make an effort on that end of the floor.

Sam Dekker is still a ways from being back, but we felt he was miscast as a power forward before he was hurt, but maybe he fits better as Osman’s backup after deals are made to move veterans like Smith and Korver.

And of course, when Kevin Love returns, that will cause Drew to make another adjustment, probably moving Nance to the bench.

The point is finding the right combination of players who can play together with the new pace of play established by the new coach.

It also appears that Tristan Thompson is taking a leadership role in the locker room, something very important for a younger group of players.  They need one of their own to hold players accountable.

We aren’t saying the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to make the playoffs this season, but we also don’t think this is a 2-12 team either, the Wizards’ game notwithstanding.

More changes will be coming, as it would not be shocking to see Korver, in particular, moved to a playoff contender soon.  But it looks like Drew is open to seeing who is playing well, and giving them more time.

That’s how it should work.

JK

 

 

Bigger Market For Kluber Or Carrasco?

When baseball’s GM meetings took place a week ago, the rumors started that the Cleveland Indians were willing to move some of their veterans, excluding MVP candidates Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Then came word the Tribe was talking to the Yankees about starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco in a big time trade.

That got us thinking…who would the fans rather see moved, and more importantly, who might bring the haul if they were moved.

Certainly, Kluber has had the more accomplished career.  He’s a two time Cy Young Award winner, has finished in the top three in the voting four times, and is coming off his first 20 win season.

Carrasco has been one of the sports’ best starting pitchers since 2015, winning 60 games over the past four seasons, with an ERA under 4.00 each season.  He has fanned 200 or more hitters in three of those seasons.

However, Kluber is older, he’ll be 33 on April 10th, and has more miles on his arm, having thrown 200 or more innings in each of the last five seasons. It also appears to many people that his arm slot became lower as the season went on in 2018. Kluber has the longer contract, which would give potential targets cost certainty for the next three seasons. 

But the deal is for big dollars, he will earn $17 million in 2019, $17.5 million in 2020, and $18 million in 2021.  Those last two years are at a team option.

Carrasco is signed for the 2019 season with a club option for 2020, at a deal that is far below what his performance has merited.  He is making slightly over $7 million for ’19, and has a club option for $9.5 million for 2020.

Based on this information, Carrasco might bring back more in a trade than the Indians’ ace.  The lure of getting a top notch starting pitcher at below market dollars could bring a huge return from other teams.

The market would seem to be contending teams for Kluber, while Carrasco could interest teams that are building for a playoff run in 2019. 

Regardless, teams that would be a good match for the Indians would be organizations that have a very good farm system, particularly with major league ready talent.

A perusal of the top farm systems in the sport show several teams that would be interested in adding a top of the rotation starting pitcher.  Those teams would be the Braves, Rays, Phillies, Yankees, A’s, and Dodgers. The Tribe wants to get younger on the field and would likely be looking for a young, controllable pitcher as well. 

The Indians are able to consider such a move because of the depth of the starting rotation.  Let’s say Carrasco is moved.  The rotation would still be comprised of Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber.  

The fifth spot would be between Adam Plutko and either a decent veteran signed in free agency, or somebody obtained in the deal for Carrasco.  

Not many teams have that kind of rotation depth.  

By the way, we like the minor trade the Tribe made yesterday getting OF Jordan Luplow from Pittsburgh for utility man Erik Gonzalez.  

As we have said for years, we don’t believe Gonzalez will ever be a productive regular because of his lack of strike zone judgment.  His career strikeout to walk ratio is 79:9.

Luplow has hit .300 in AAA with a 857 OPS at that level, and is solid defensively.  That resume would put him in line to start in 2019 based on who the Indians have right now.  

We are sure there will be more to come.

MW 

No Doubt Changes Have Helped The Browns

It’s nice to have professional football back in Cleveland again.

We say that slightly tongue in cheek, but that’s what it feels like after the Browns 28-16 win over Atlanta on Sunday.

There was no rallying behind a rookie in his first NFL game (like win #1 this season), nor was there a last second deflected made field goal in overtime (like win #2 in 2018).

This was simply the Browns looking like the better team pretty much from the first quarter of the game on, getting Gregg Williams his first win with the Browns, and raised the team’s record to 3-6-1.

That’s three times as many wins as the team accumulated over the past two seasons.  Chew on that for a second.  Three times.

Before that game, we heard some in the media wondering where the Browns could come up with another win or two on the schedule, meaning they thought a 3-12-1 season was the most likely outcome for the season.

After Sunday’s victory, is there any reason Cleveland couldn’t go into Cincinnati and get a win after next week’s bye week?

Also, thankfully, there won’t be any jokes about the brown and orange losing during the bye week either.

There is no question this is a different football team from two weeks ago.  Just look at the number of times the team has been penalized.

In the last two games, the Browns have been penalized 11 times.  The two games prior to the coaching change?  Try 22 yellow flags.

For whatever reason, these guys aren’t shooting themselves in the foot anymore.

They are protecting the quarterback better too.  Baker Mayfield has been sacked just twice in the last two games, none on Sunday.

In the prior two games, he was tackled seven times for loss.  New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens seems to be calling for quicker throws, and if you remember last year (we know you are trying to forget it), Hue Jackson seemed to call for longer throws down the field, which took more time for DeShone Kizer to throw.

As yes, we are well aware that Todd Haley was calling the plays this season, not Jackson.

It also helps that there was a change at left tackle last week.  Greg Robinson has been solid where rookie Desmond Harrison was struggling.  This is not to write off Harrison, who pretty much everyone agree has a boatload of potential.  But there is no question he was having a tougher time as the season went on.

Then, we have Duke Johnson.  He caught 20 passes in the Browns’ first eight games, and ran the ball 22 times.  In the last two contests, he’s caught 13 passes and had four carries.

His touches have gone from 5.4 in the first half of the season to 8.5 per game in the last two weeks, and probably would have had more on Sunday had the game been in doubt.  And he scored three touchdowns, the only three he has tallied in 2018.

New coaches and coaching staffs are more receptive to change.  The best coaches recognize that while they still have a job and make alterations because they understand players’ performances can ebb and flow.

Hue Jackson wanted to run the Cleveland Browns a certain way, and really didn’t feel the need to change even though he won one game in two years.

Who knows how many games the Browns will win the rest of this season?  It does seem a new attitude has hit the locker room though.

And that cannot hurt.

JD

 

Cavs Slowing Down, And Playing Better.

There is no question that in professional sports, success is copied.  What is perceived to be the reason for a title is copied by other teams searching for a model of success.

The NBA is no different.  Three titles in four years by the Golden State Warriors have other teams trying to play like them.  Our observation is the same as when the Cavaliers tried to play uptempo against them in the last two NBA Finals.

If you play like the Warriors, they are better at that style than you, and they will defeat you.

The Houston Rockets tried this last year, and they had the best record in the NBA.  They also had a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference finals over Golden State, but Chris Paul got hurt, and Mike D’Antoni’s team couldn’t overcome that.

And as for the Cavs win in 2016?  Remember, that Warriors team did not have Kevin Durant, and they played slower before Durant signed with them as a free agent.

The wine and gold started the season trying to play at breakneck speed.  They lost their first three games, including being blown out in their home opener vs. Atlanta.

Since those first three contests, they’ve slowed their pace significantly, but they are still just 1-11 after last night’s one point loss at Chicago.

However, because of roster considerations, the Cavaliers play small lineups most of the time. They only have four traditional power forward/center types on the roster, and one of them is Channing Frye, who rarely plays.

Kevin Love is another of course, but he is injured.

That means we have seen JR Smith or Cedi Osman trying to guard power forwards, and that’s not going to end well.

So, why not zag when other teams are zigging.  Perhaps it is time to go back to the way NBA teams used to play, with two post players.

Larry Drew tried it last night, starting Tristan Thompson at center and using Larry Nance Jr. at the power forward.

Now, they were playing the Bulls, one of the NBA’s “have nots”, but Cleveland narrowly missed a road win, losing by just one point.

Thompson had 22 points and 12 rebounds, and although Nance had just 2 points on 1 of 8 shooting, he still corralled 14 boards and had four blocked shots.

This would mean more minutes for 6’11” Ante Zizic and some spot minutes for Frye as well.

Drew has slowed the pace since he took over the squad and the result is much more competitive games.  Two of the last three Cavaliers’ losses have been by two points or less on the road.

We thought the Cavs best bet this season would be to use their depth and play at hyper speed, but their smaller players, wings and point guards aren’t good enough defensively.

Currently, the best defenders need to get more time.

Nance is rated the best, but he only averages 20.6 minutes.  Next are David Nwaba (9.3), Smith (19.1) and Sam Dekker (18.8).  Then come Love and Thompson.

If you are struggling on defense, why not get those guys on the court more often, particularly Nance and Nwaba.

One more thing on the defensive end.  This team simply must figure out a way to stop dribble penetration by opposing point guards.  It can be done, because other teams do it to the Cavs.

Again, it’s pretty simple.  Teams need to play according to the talent they have.  Playing small makes no sense for this group of players.

Playing slower and bigger should be the way to go from here.

JK

Hold On! Tribe Trying To Restructure, Not Blow It Up

The Cleveland Indians were in the news over the past weekend and extending into today after it was reported the team would be willing to trade some veteran players, not including Francisco Lindor and/or Jose Ramirez.

Many fans took this to mean Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff were going into rebuilding mode.  This could not be further from the truth.

Of course, the team also declined to make qualifying offers to Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller, or Cody Allen, the Tribe’s primary free agents.

We have talked about the fact that the Indians’ offense was very top heavy in 2018, largely dependent on Lindor, Ramirez, and Brantley, and the latter doesn’t look to be on the roster next spring.

Combine that with the payroll in ’18 was as high as the franchise can have, and you can see some restructuring of the roster has to be done.

If you look at the every day lineup from the end of last season, outside of Lindor, Ramirez, and Greg Allen, everyone else was over 30 years old, which means improvement isn’t likely, so we are sure the Indians want to get younger.

The issue is that among the Tribe’s top ten prospects (from Baseball America) show the only position player who played above the AA level last season was 1B Bobby Bradley.

So, there is no help on the horizon from the minor leagues.

While we are sure the front office would love to move Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, or Yonder Alonso, our guess is there wouldn’t be much of a return for that trio, it would pretty much be a salary dump for low level prospects.

So, you have to look at players who you can sell high on, and that brings us to Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Yan Gomes.

There is no question the strength of the Indians is their starting pitching, and they brought up a rookie into the rotation this season in Shane Bieber, and their top prospect is another starter in Triston McKenzie, who was at Akron last season.

Both Kluber and Carrasco are under reasonable contracts for the next two years, so they would have huge value for teams looking for starting pitching.

We believe you should A). Deal from strength, and B).  Better to trade someone a year too early than a year too late.

Kluber is going to be in the top three in the Cy Young Award voting this year, the fourth time in his career that will be the case.  However, he did show signs of wear and tear as the season went on.

Keep in mind, he has thrown 200 innings or more five consecutive seasons.  His strikeout rate was the lowest since before his first Cy Young season in 2014.  Is he starting a decline?  That’s what the organization has to ask themselves.

His salary jumps from $10 million to $17 million this year and basically stays there through 2021 on club options.

Carrasco has less wear and tear on his arm (only one 200 inning season) and is still making under $10 million in 2019 and 2020.

Carrasco might fetch more in a deal for that reason.

Gomes is 31 years old and is coming off perhaps his best season in the major leagues.  It would be a good baseball move to try to trade him at his peak.

This current group perhaps went as far as it could in 2016, and the organization gave them two more shots to win a title.

The front office knows they need to address the offense and they need some younger position players who have an upside.

The core remains the same.  The Indians are still trying to get better for 2019.  They aren’t starting the rebuild.

MW