One week from now, baseball’s post-season will be upon us, although the Cleveland Indians will not start the Division Series against the defending champion Houston Astros until Friday, October 5th.
The roster for that series is unknown, as is how many pitchers the Tribe will carry for the best-of-five set against the Astros.
We believe Terry Francona, Chris Antonetti, and Mike Chernoff will go with 11 pitchers in that series, and will use four starters, with Corey Kluber going in Game 1.
And four starters is the way to go too. We have heard people talk about using Carlos Carrasco and even Trevor Bauer as relief weapons in the first round, but really, wouldn’t you want those two giving you 15-21 outs instead of let’s say, 7-9 outs?
You have heard national media talk about how dangerous the Indians are because of their starting pitching, so why use guys on short rest, or use rookie Shane Bieber as a starter so you can use a pitcher who has started all year out of the bullpen?
Seems like you are weakening a strength.
As for the bullpen, which we project will have seven pitchers, the obvious choices are Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, and Brad Hand. Oliver Perez deserves a spot too, but with Houston being right-handed hitter dominant, do you keep the veteran southpaw?
Yes, because right handed hitters are 3 for 42 vs. the southpaw who comes at hitters with a variety of angles and deception.
Who fills the other three spots?
Right handed batters have a 599 OPS on the season vs. Adam Cimber, and his sidearming style should be good for use as a ROOGY. He will probably make the squad.
That leaves Dan Otero, Neil Ramirez, Josh Tomlin, and Jon Edwards vying for two spots.
All four give up a lot of home runs, the lowest home run rate per nine innings belongs to Otero, who although it seems like he gives up a lot of long balls, he’s actually done it at a lower rate than the others.
Remember though, Edwards’ work is based on just 7-2/3 innings since he was just called up on September 1st.
If you want punch outs, then Ramirez (11.2 strikeouts per nine) and Edwards (11.0) are the guys you want.
Otero has the lowest OPS vs. right handed hitters (280/424/704), with Ramirez next best at 294/450/744.
Based on the numbers, Tomlin seems to fit only if loyalty is an overwhelming factor. The veteran has allowed 3.3 homers per nine, has the lowest strikeout rate (5.6) and righty hitters have an 811 OPS against him.
That would leave five bench players (assuming Josh Donaldson at 3B, Jason Kipnis in CF, and Melky Cabrera in RF). Roberto Perez will be the backup catcher, and no doubt Brandon Guyer will make the roster to face Dallas Keuchel.
We also believe Greg Allen will be there for defense in the outfield and Rajai Davis (not that we agree with this) will be there as a pinch running option.
This would seem to leave the last spot between Yandy Diaz and Erik Gonzalez. Diaz has been platooning at first base with Yonder Alonso, but he has tailed off since a hot start.
If you don’t keep Gonzalez, you have no backup shortstop except for Jose Ramirez, which based on Francisco Lindor’s durability, may not be a factor.
Our guess is Diaz makes the roster.
The official announcement date will be a week from today, and a lot can still happen, particularly in the bullpen.
Then we will see how accurate our thinking was…
MW
Cleveland Sports Perspective 