Right before the Major League Baseball trade deadline, the was a lot of talk about the relative value of players, and of course, statistics were brought up.
At this point, we would like to point out that we regularly purchased and read Bill James’ Baseball Abstract and found it fascinating, a different way of looking at the game and the players on the field.
So, we understand many of the sport’s new statistics, like OPS, and we usually list a player’s OPS when discussing his offensive prowess. We also look at WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in terms of a player’s profile, but our opinion is it is biased toward middle of the diamond players, Jose Ramirez’ current season notwithstanding.
By the way, that’s our opinion, so save the anger. But when Matt Chapman, third baseman from Oakland (we know not a middle infielder) measures to have the fifth highest WAR this season, it raises an eyebrow.
This isn’t to say Chapman isn’t a good player. He has an 830 OPS and is a great defensive player. He isn’t the 5th best player in the sport this season, and for that matter, Milwaukee’s Lorenzo Cain isn’t 6th either.
Let’s get back to OPS though. James’ original premise was a batter who had an on base percentage of over .350 and a slugging percentage over .450, therefore displaying an ability to get on base and drive the ball, is a very good offensive player.
Today, there seems to be a group of people who value players who have high OPS due to dominance in the slugging area, leading to players who have low batting averages/on base percentages getting a lot of playing time.
The players who has the highest OPS with out being over the .350/.450 threshold in each category are as follows:
Javier Baez 914 OPS (.333 OBP/581 slugging)
Khris Davis 863 OPS (.326/.536)
Gregory Polanco 862 OPS (.344/.517)
Xander Bogaerts 855 OPS (.342/.513)
Joey Votto 852 OPS (.425/.427)
Out of those players, which one would you like to have?
For us, it would be Votto, who by the way, also has the most distinguished career out of the group, although to be fair, he’s also the guy who has been around the longest.
One thing we would like to point out about the on base percentage and slugging percentage.
A player with a 1.000 on base percentage never makes an out, while a player with a 1.000 slugging percentage can arrive at that figure by going 1 for 4 with a home run.
And we would also add is making outs is the only way “time” is measured in a baseball game. A team only gets 27 of them, and players who make them frequently shouldn’t be as valuable.
Look at the strikeout to walk ratios of the first four players–
Baez 101 K/17 walks
Davis 116 K/38 walks
Polanco 91 K/48 walks
Bogaerts 72 K/31 walks
In watching these guys hit, our feeling in watching them against the Indians is that in a tight situation, you can strike Baez and Davis out. They swing at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, and if we can see that, we are sure major league pitchers know it too.
We noticed in this summer’s amateur draft, the Indians went for players with good contact rates, that is to say, they didn’t strike out much.
This could be due to the success of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, players who are good hitter, and can develop power later.
A look at the bottom ten teams in MLB in on base percentage shows nine teams not in the post season picture (Arizona is the lone contender). As for slugging percentage, there are three teams above .500 (Giants, Phillies, and Rays) in the bottom ten.
What does it all mean? We believe many people look at the statistics first in making judgments about players, and they value the total OPS. We believe you have to see how the stat is compiled to determine the value of the player.
Just something we wanted to get off our chest.
MW
Cleveland Sports Perspective 