The Cleveland Cavaliers are heading to the NBA playoffs, but some fans are obsessed with the draft pick which the Cavs acquired in the Kyrie Irving trade.
That pick, of course, originally belonged to the Brooklyn Nets, who fans of the wine and gold have been following all season long.
We even heard some fans saying that LeBron James should sit out Sunday’s game against Dallas because a Mavericks victory could help the Nets sink in the standings, thus giving the Cavs a better chance to obtain the first pick in the NBA draft.
The most attractive thing about the pick, which currently sits in the 7th position if the season ended today, giving Cleveland a 4.3% chance at the first overall selection and a 15% opportunity to pick in the top three, is what it is worth to other teams.
We say that because of today’s nature of the draft, which because of the “one and done” rule, means many of the lottery picks are based on potential, not the ability to help a good NBA team right now.
Note that we said a good NBA team, meaning one that makes the playoffs. Let’s examine last June’s draft, for example.
Of the rookies getting more than 20 minutes of playing time per game, only four are doing so on teams that will probably make the post-season. That quartet would be Jayson Tatum (Boston), Donovan Mitchell (Utah), Bam Adebayo (Miami), and OG Anunoby (Toronto).
Of those four, only Tatum was picked in the top ten. Granted, most good teams don’t get an opportunity to pick in the top ten, however, think about it. None of the rookies taken in the top ten have been impactful enough to lift their teams out of the lottery.
Looking at the year before, the only player who was a rotation players with a playoff teams was Jaylen Brown (3rd overall pick with Boston).
Now in their second year, Ben Simmons (Philadelphia-1st overall), Jamal Murray (Denver-7th pick), Jakob Poeltl (Toronto 9th), and Thon Maker (Milwaukee-10th) are contributing to playoff teams, but the other players who were selected in the top of the draft are still on bad teams.
Going back to 2015, first overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns will likely help Minnesota make the playoffs, but the rest of the players picked in the top ten are still on also-rans.
Beyond that group, Myles Turner Kelly Oubre, and Terry Rozier and solid contributors on playoff squads.
So, looking at the players projected to be selected in the top ten in the 2018 draft, how many could get significant playing time on the Cavs next fall, if James remains with the team?
Certainly Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton and Duke’s Marvin Bagley would be rotation players, but they are projected to go with the first two selections.
Most of the other players thought to be top ten picks probably don’t have NBA ready bodies.
Other players we think could play right away are Collin Sexton, a freshman point guard out of Alabama, Duke C Wendell Carter, and Villanova swingman Mikel Bridges, who is a junior, not a one year college player.
This isn’t to say the other top selections won’t be solid NBA players in time, or that they won’t put up good numbers for bad teams.
The point is there aren’t many players ready to come into the league and be solid contributors for a team with aspirations of making a deep playoff run, and history shows this is the norm.
So, the best plan for GM Koby Altman is a draft day trade to bring in a young veteran who will fit in and be able to help now. We aren’t talking about a guy who is on the wrong side of 30, but a player in his mid-20’s who might be heading toward the free agent market, like Kevin Love was when the Cavs traded for him.
That’s the best bet for the Cavaliers, not someone who played just one year of college basketball.
JK
Cleveland Sports Perspective 