Without a doubt, it will not be easy. That’s what happens when the strength of your team going into the season is ravaged by injuries.
That’s what the Cleveland Indians face in the American League Division Series against the Boston Red Sox starting on Thursday night.
This is because despite having the third best record in the AL, you can make a very strong case that the Red Sox are the best team in the Junior Circuit.
They lead the AL in run differential, scoring 1.1 more runs per game than their opponents. As a result, they have the best expected record in the league at 98-64, compared to the Tribe’s figures of +0.6 runs/game and an expected record of 91-71.
The one area in which the Carmine didn’t excel this season was in one run games, with a 20-24 record, compared to Cleveland’s 28-21 mark.
Boston led the AL in runs scored, the Indians were second. The Tribe had the league’s best ERA, the Red Sox were 3rd.
With all due respect to the Texas Rangers, who had the league’s best record (by a half game over the Tribe), these are probably the two best teams in the American League.
When Andrew Benintendi is playing LF, the Sox have eight players in their batting order with OPS over 800. The Indians have five.
However, on the road, Boston has just three hitters with OPS over 800 away from Fenway Park: David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, and catcher Sandy Leon, who may not play over concerns their management has over the Indians running wild on him.
Just another reason having the home field advantage is important.
On the other hand, the Indians have seven hitters with OPS over 800 at Progressive Field, while on the road, only Carlos Santana can make that claim.
So, this series may very well come down to which team can buck the trend of hitting well on the road.
Another problem with playing the Red Sox is the success their two best starting pitchers have had against the Tribe. Opening game starter Rick Porcello is 10-4 against Cleveland lifetime and game two hurler David Price is 10-2 vs. the Tribe.
Porcello has an impressive 2.84 ERA at Progressive Field over 12 starts, while Price is 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA in seven starts on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.
On the other hand, Price has an ERA over 5.00 in the post-season.
So, it doesn’t look good for the Tribe, does it?
That’s why they play the games, and they don’t award the series on statistics or paper.
The one thing we know about the 2016 edition of the Cleveland Indians is they will not go easy. We also know they have an edge in the bullpen, where Terry Francona can go to Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller, and Cody Allen to cover four or even five innings in the post-season.
Remember, in 2007 the Tribe was 0-6 in the regular season vs. the Yankees, and then beat them 3-1 in the ALDS.
All of this stuff is rendered meaningless once the first pitch is thrown Thursday night.
The Indians also have an edge on the basepaths, with AL stolen base leader Rajai Davis, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Jason Kipnis all capable of stealing a bag or taking an extra base.
Can the Indians win this series? Of course, that’s the nature of baseball.
We are just pointing out that it will not be easy. That would just keep it in line with the rest of this season for the Cleveland Indians.
MW
Cleveland Sports Perspective 