Tribe Positives and Concerns Over First 27 Games.

The Cleveland Indians hit the 1/6th mark of the season with a 14-13 record.  They didn’t have the great April they needed to get casual fans revved up about them, but they didn’t bury themselves either.

And that can be done during the season’s first month, just ask the Minnesota Twins.

The biggest problem for the Tribe is the Chicago White Sox, who have ridden excellent pitching to take a five game lead in the AL Central.

Of course, they is a long way to go to make up that deficit.

Anyway, here is what we see as positives over the first 27 games, and also, things were are concerned about.

POSITIVES

Nobody doubts the talent of Francisco Lindor, but right now, there doesn’t seem to be any sign of a sophomore slump.

The 22-year-old is hitting .324 (814 OPS) thus far and is making a defensive gem on a nightly basis.

If you had Josh Tomlin as the staff leader in wins before the season started, you were in the minority.  But the right hander sits at 5-0 with a 3.72 ERA and is showing remarkable control as usual with a 19 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio.

It seems like over the last few seasons, one starting pitcher makes a step toward elite status, and this year it is Danny Salazar following in the footsteps of Corey Kluber (2014) and Carlos Carrasco (2015).

Salazar has allowed just 18 hits in 37-2/3 innings, while striking out 43 batters.  Yes, his walks are high (16), but for the most part, he has been dominating each time he takes the mound.

The Indians have been searching for a right handed power bat for years and years, and they may now have one in Mike Napoli.  Yes, he strikes out a lot, on pace for close to 200 whiffs on a 500 at bat season, but he also has six homers and 20 RBI.

His history says the strikeouts will taper a bit, and he does see a lot of pitches, but he has a chance to belt more than 25 bombs this season.

CONCERNS

The bullpen still scares us and we know that Bryan Shaw has pitched better lately.  Terry Francona likes to use Zack McAllister in the 7th, Shaw in the 8th, and Cody Allen in the 9th if the starting pitcher can only give him six innings.

You can probably count the game where each has provided a clean inning in the same game on one hand.

McAllister started great, but has struggled his last few outings.  Shaw was a mess early on, and Allen still seems to go through periods where he can’t throw strikes.

Maybe Tommy Hunter can provide a lift here.

Yan Gomes is also having a hard time at the plate, hitting just .176 (541 OPS).  Gomes has walked just four times, compared to 22 punch outs.

He never has walked a lot, and you have to wonder if many the word is out that you don’t have to throw him a strike to get him out.

He also needs to start taking the outside pitch to right centerfield.

Jason Kipnis’ diminishing contact is also troubling.  He has almost struck out as much as Napoli.  His career high was 143 in ’13, but right now, he is on pace to fan over 160 times.

Our last concern is the usual veteran problem.  How long of a rope does Francona give some of these guys.

Juan Uribe has an OPS of 652.  Rajai Davis’ is 690, and Lonnie Chisenhall’s is 626.  Under 700 isn’t very good.  The team already sent out Tyler Naquin who had a 753 OPS (.315 batting average) to the minors.

When you are a contending team, which the Indians are, you can’t wait too long to replace players who aren’t producing.

Francona needs to use Jose Ramirez more, because he has been productive (783 OPS), and he needs to leave Carlos Santana in the leadoff spot. We know it is a small sample size, but Cleveland is 8-1 when Santana leads off.

He walks a lot, and has already led off two games with home runs.

Overall, the offense has made a big improvement, ranking 4th in the AL in runs scored per game, and the pitching is starting to pick it up, ranking 7th in ERA.

Again, our biggest concern is the bullpen.  With some improvement over the first 27 games in that department, the Indians could have been 17-10 instead of 14-13.

MW

Game 3 Won’t Be Easy For Cavs

After last night’s blowout victory at Quicken Loans Arena by the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Atlanta Hawks, fans seem to be not only regarding the Hawks as a speed bump on the way to a title.

Not to be a wet blanket, but we believe Friday night’s game could be the sternest test the wine and gold have faced in the playoffs thus far.

Mike Budenholzer’s team was thoroughly embarrassed yesterday.  He pulled his starters toward the end of the third quarter.

Despite the lopsided win yesterday, and the nine straight victories by Cleveland over the last two seasons, the Hawks aren’t the Philadelphia 76ers.  They won 60 games last season and won 48 this year.

And if they have any pride at all, and we believe they do, they have some pro’s pros over there in Paul Millsap and Al Hoford, they will come out Friday night and fight on their home floor to get back into the series.

TNT’s Charles Barkley hammered the attitude of the Hawks as well, basically saying that Atlanta’s players lost their fight after halftime, when they needed to set a tone for game three.

Our guess is the series will take a physical tone too, especially from the home team, because they will be playing angry.  They have to be sick and tired of the Cavs beating them, particularly in the playoffs.

This doesn’t mean the Cavaliers won’t win, because at this point, Cleveland has to be in the heads of the Hawks.  They have to wonder what they have to do to defeat the number one seed in the East.

All we are seeing is that last night’s game was probably an anomaly, the Cavs aren’t winning by more than 20 points again in the series.

Since we don’t take anything for granted, fans shouldn’t think for a minute that if Cleveland advances to the conference finals, that will not be a cakewalk either.

The fans need to slow their roll a tad.

The guys wearing the wine and gold uniforms are saying the correct things and the supporters of the squad should listen.

JR Smith said it right after the game.  All the Cavs did was hold the home court, and now they have to go on the road for the first time in the series and win in Atlanta.  They weren’t sending the NBA a “message”, they were just doing what they were supposed to do.

It is understandable that the fans are getting excited.  The Cavs are the only team that hasn’t lost a playoff game, and through six post-season games, their outside shooting is on point.

Last night’s 25 three point makes is proof of that.

But remember that for the most part, NBA players have pride and they don’t like to be embarrassed.  That’s why we think it won’t be easy on Friday night, that’s all.

Now, if the Cavs can overcome the Hawks’ emotion in game three and come out with a victory, this series won’t come back to Cleveland.

Atlanta likely will not have anything left.

Remember, every playoff game is different.  Friday night will be no exception.

JK

Grading Browns Draft? Stupid To Do Now

No one can evaluate how the Cleveland Browns did in the NFL draft for several years.  Anyone who wants to tell you differently is insane.

All of the analysts who rank the drafts for each team are doing so based on how they ranked each player prior to the selection process.

For example, if the writer/analyst liked Corey Coleman and let’s say, Carl Nassib, then they would probably say the Browns had a very good draft.

If they didn’t like those guys, then they are panning Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta for not taking Laquon Treadwell with the 15th overall pick.

It really is that simple.

That’s why you see a large disparity of grade on the Browns’ draft.  Pro Football Focus gave them an “A”.  Mel Kiper gave them a “C”. Pete Prisco gave them a “C-“.

Lord knows what famous Browns critic Jason LaCanfora gave them.  Is there a grade lower than F?

One thing we can say is Brown and company are trying to make this team younger, and with 14 picks and the acquisition of CB Jamar Taylor from Miami, the roster will have a drastic turnover from a year ago.

We have written several times about the players over 30 years of age on this roster.  The choices Cleveland made indicate more of this group will be gone by the time training camp starts in July.

Paul Kruger said a lot of good things at OTA’s a few weeks ago, but with the drafting of Emmanuel Ogbah, Nassib, and Joe Schobert, there doesn’t seem to be room for him to play.

Grabbing Taylor in the deal with the Dolphins likely will mean that Tramon Williams will not be with the Browns for long.

And with four wide receivers being picked, one of them the first rounder, will Andrew Hawkins be in Berea by the end of summer?

If those players aren’t here, that will leave punter Andy Lee, Joe Thomas, John Greco, and Gary Barnidge as the only players on the wrong side of 30.

The lightning rod pick was taking QB Cody Kessler from USC on the third round.  That’s what a lot of people want to talk about, with most of the objections being that he was a third round pick.

While that is true, he was picked 93rd, and Cleveland had (at the time) the 99th and 100th overall picks.

If Kessler were chosen with one of those selections, would that appease the critics?  In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn’t mean much difference.

And for the people who wanted the Browns to take local boy Connor Cook?  A bunch of teams passed on him multiple times.  And to reiterate what we used to say about Brian Hoyer, just because a player is from here, doesn’t need they will be good quarterbacks.

Not everyone from northeast Ohio is Bernie Kosar.

Also, Kessler’s presence may mean another member of the over 30 set could be gone soon.  It wouldn’t be a shock if Josh McCown is dealt before the beginning of the regular season.

We knew going into this off-season that the Browns were going to overhaul their roster, and by getting 15 new players last weekend, the process has started.

But judging the draft now, and putting a grade on it is based on bias and is out and out stupid.  You also can’t pin the sins of past administrations on Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta.

The Browns are sticking to a plan right now.  Whether they can stick to the plan will probably determine how successful they will be.

JD

 

Previewing Cavs-Hawks

Last year, the Cleveland Cavaliers swept the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference finals and earned their second berth in the NBA championship round in the franchise’s history.

This year, they take on the Hawks in the conference semi-finals after Atlanta eliminated Boston in six games in the first round.

What can the Cavs expect starting on Monday night?

For the season, the wine and gold averaged 104.3 points per game compared to 102.8 for the Hawks.  Defensively, the Cavaliers allowed 98.3 points (4th) compared to 99.2 (6th) for the team from the Peachtree State.

After last season, the Hawks were branded as a ball movement team that relied on the three point shot, led by Kyle Korver.  Actually, the Cavs took 100 more shots from beyond the arc, and finished 7th in threes made, compared to Atlanta’s middle of the pack rank (15th).

Down the stretch, the Hawks became a tenacious defensive group, allowing the worst field goal percentage in the NBA at 43.2%.  Tyronn Lue’s group ranked 14th in this category.

Mike Budenholzer’s squad also ranked 5th in defense against the three point shot.  So, there is no doubt that Atlanta is very good at defending shooters.

However, it becomes a problem for them once a shot is missed.

The Hawks are simply not a good rebounding team.  Twenty three teams had more rebounds than them, and they allowed the 4th most offensive rebounds in the sport.

Cleveland was 9th in total rebounds and allowed the fifth least offensive rebounds as a team in 2015-16.

That makes Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love keys to this series.  If they can keep possessions alive after missed shots and can convert, that’s very demoralizing to opposing teams.

Jeff Teague improved his long range shooting tremendously this season, hitting 40% of his three point shots, compared to 34% a year ago.  He can be a handful for Kyrie Irving, who must stop penetration.

He did not shoot well from distance against Boston, so we would test his ability to make shots early in the series.

His backup, Dennis Schroder, who plays a lot, isn’t a good shooter from outside.

Atlanta’s best player is veteran Paul Millsap, an undersized four at 6’8″, but a very good scorer at 17 points per night.  He is very good at converting second chances, Love, Thompson, and company must keep him off the boards.

Because of Millsap’s size, it will be easy for Lue to use LeBron James at the four.  The Cavs should be able to match up easily if they want to go small.

Al Horford is Atlanta’s third leading scorer, and he’s a bit undersized to play the center spot.  Also, he seems to want to take more shots from the perimeter, which if we were playing defense, would be exactly what we wanted him to do.

And there is no question that Cleveland has to keep an eye on Kyle Korver, one of the NBA’s best long range shooters.

His three point shooting dropped by 10% this season, but you can’t let him get open looks.  You are surprised if he misses those.

Also, when he is on the floor, you have to go at him defensively.  He’s not a strong defender, and now 35 years old, isn’t getting any quicker.

With the home court advantage, it will be critical for the Cavs to come out and win the first two, obviously.  If they can win big, after last year’s sweep, the Hawks could be demoralized early.

This also shouldn’t be a physical of a series as the first round match up vs. Detroit was.  Atlanta doesn’t have the big bodies, but they are a better defensive team.

If Love and Irving are shooting well, we would figure the Cavs in no more than five games.

JK