Around this time of year, many fans of the Cleveland Cavaliers start hoping for losses, so the wine and gold have a better chance of improving their position in the NBA draft lottery.
With every loss, these people shout with glee, happy that the Cavs dropped another game.
This year, that’s not smart.
Why? Because of two reasons. First, what most fans don’t understand is that winning breeds winning, and the rest of this season should be about establishing a winning attitude for the 2013-14 season.
The second reason is that this year, more than perhaps the last few seasons, there isn’t a clear-cut first pick in the draft, not that Cleveland can sink low enough to have the best chance of getting the first selection.
This year is one of those seasons where there are very few finished products available to teams having one of the top five selections in late June. You can almost call this year’s draft a crapshoot.
For example, right now if the standings remained where they are and the lottery held to form, the Cavs would have the 7th pick in the selection process. Several mock drafts have GM Chris Grant taking Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel, who is 6’11” and weighs a whopping 211 pounds or UNLV forward Anthony Bennett.
Noel has missed at least half of this year’s season with a knee injury and obviously needs to bulk up to be able to play and contribute at the NBA level. Tyler Zeller, the Cavs’ rookie center, weighs 250 pounds and is still getting pushed around by veteran big men on a nightly basis.
Just think what would happen to Noel. And with a young core of Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, and Dion Waiters, the wine and gold need to win as soon as next season. Noel probably won’t be able to be a real contributor for a few years.
That’s the challenge for Grant. Not only does he need to find someone good coming out of college, but someone who can contribute to the team as soon as next season. Taking a project doesn’t help this young team in the short-term.
Bennett may be a better choice because he has an NBA body (6’7″ 240 pounds). The problem with him though is he may be a tweener, too small to play power forward and not quick enough to play small forward. Right now, his offensive game is more like the former, and the Cavs already have Thompson.
That’s the point. If you look at the players ranked from 4-12 that are likely to come out in this year’s draft, there are no finished products. While that may be true of most years, this year is really a gamble.
Looking at the top ten prospects projected to come out this season, it shows seven freshmen and three sophomores. Of those who have spent two years in college, one, Georgetown’s Otto Porter is ranked in the top three and probably won’t be available to the Cavs. The other two are Cody Zeller (brother of Tyler) and Alex Len of Maryland, who needs to get stronger to play in the NBA.
The point is it is not likely that the Cavs will get anyone who can provide a huge boost for next season. And they need a huge boost if they want to challenge for the playoffs next season.
This might be one of those years it may be better to deal with teams looking to move someone for salary cap relief.
Following the Oklahoma City model likely won’t be possible with this year’s college crop.
JK
Cleveland Sports Perspective 