The Cleveland Indians shocked everyone in the baseball world by signing free agent CF Michael Bourn to a four-year contract, worth an estimated $48 million.
We aren’t sure how much this helps the 2013 Tribe, at least offensively.
We are happy that the front office was able to spend money, and it shows a change in how the Dolan family is running the team, but with the state of the starting rotation, the dollars would be better spent there.
To be sure, the Indians may have baseball’s best defensive outfield with Bourn, flanked by Drew Stubbs in right and Michael Brantley in left. And that should help a pitching staff that ranked last in the AL in ERA last season.
However, the American League is an offensive league, particularly in the regular season, and it says here that Bourn doesn’t help the offense all that much. Why? Because he’s not a very good offensive player.
Here’s hoping Tribe fans don’t see a speedy, centerfielder and think of former Indian great Kenny Lofton, because GM Chris Antonetti’s latest signing doesn’t compare favorably.
Bourn, a left-handed hitter has a lifetime OPS of just 704. He’s a leadoff man by trade, yet his career on base percentage is just .339.
To be fair, in recent years he has been close to the .350 mark which is acceptable for a guy hitting at the top of the order. However, by comparison to the best leadoff hitter the Indians have had in recent years, Lofton, Bourn isn’t close. Lofton’s career on base percentage was a robust .372.
Also, the newest Indian has little pop. His lifetime slugging percentage is .365 and last year it was still under .400 (.391). Just for a comparison that you won’t like, Ezequiel Carrera’s slugging percentage for Cleveland last year? Try .395.
When Bourn gets on base, he can run, averaging 51 stolen bases per season over 162 games. He’s also an excellent defender, the winner of two Gold Gloves.
For $12 million per year, you should expect a little more with the stick. And for a player who makes his living with his legs, you have to wonder how effective of a player Bourn will be in the last two years of the contract, when he will be 32 and 33 years old.
Many baseball website rated Bourn as one of the top free agents in the off-season, mostly based on his WAR (wins above replacement player). However, that rating is inflated because of his defense at a premium defensive position.
Still, according to Baseball Reference.com, the most comparable hitters to Bourn at this point in his career are former Indian Dave Roberts, Albie Pearson and Roger Cedeno. All solid major league players, but no immortals there.
Bourn will enable Terry Francona to perhaps move Nick Swisher to 1B and DH Mark Reynolds, or even isolate Stubbs weaknesses at the plate by limiting his at bats vs. right-handers. He’s a better hitter than Stubbs, so if you consider that an upgrade then we have to agree.
Swisher was a solid signing because he’s a consistent player with OPS of between 743 and 870 throughout his major league career. His lifetime figure is 828 and he’s usually around that figure.
If this signing enables Antonetti to deal an outfielder, preferably Stubbs, for a legitimate starting pitcher, then it’s a good move.
Bourn isn’t a bad player, it just says here he won’t be an impact signing for the Indians. At those dollars, he should be.
KM
Cleveland Sports Perspective 