The Indians’ front office will disagree with evaluating the team at this time, but after the first game of today’s doubleheader against the White Sox, the Tribe has played 27 games, or one-sixth of the schedule.
The standings say the Indians are in first place in the AL Central Division with a two game lead over the Tigers.
Although many locally are quick to proclaim Cleveland contenders, it is too early to make that claim. You can’t win the division in April, but you can lose it, and the Indians have played well and are still in it after the first month.
Before you start ordering playoff tickets, remember that the team with the best record in the AL is the Baltimore Orioles, and no one thinks they can win the Eastern Division.
At this point, the Tribe ranks 8th in the league in runs scored, and 9th in the AL in ERA, ranking virtually in the middle of both categories.
Those numbers seem to say that Cleveland is a .500 type team. Their runs scored vs. runs allowed say their record should be 13-13, so they have been a little lucky so far.
This is reflected in their mark in games decided by one run, which is 6-1. Success in these games is not indicative of a good or great team. The ’10 Orioles were 29-22 in these games, yet finished 66-96.
Still, teams with good bullpens and average offenses play a lot of close games, and can win them by holding opponents from adding on. Heck, it’s better to win them than to lose them.
Going back to runs scored vs. runs allowed, it is clear that to be a contender, the Indians will have to improve in both areas.
Offensively, Manny Acta is still looking for at least one more productive hitter. Perhaps it can be Johnny Damon or Michael Brantley, but based on the past, you have to feel 3B Jack Hannahan’s numbers will regress at least a bit.
The biggest concern should be 1B Casey Kotchman, who is hitting .163 with a 506 OPS at this point. If Kotchman went 10 for his next 20, he’d still be hitting .230, which doesn’t cut it if you want to contend.
And let us repeat: No matter who good he is defensively, it doesn’t make up for being non-productive with the bat.
It is doubtful the Indians want to bring up Matt LaPorta from Columbus, so perhaps Shelley Duncan will get some reps at first, or maybe Lonnie Chisenhall gets a call (when he’s healthy again) with Hannahan moving to 1B.
As for the pitching, we detailed last week how important Ubaldo Jimenez is to this ballclub winning. Hopefully, he turned the corner after yesterday’s great performance against the Rangers, but until he shows that kind of pitching regularly, he’s still a question mark.
Josh Tomlin is another starter who need to throw like he did in the first half of last year. He’s had five outings, including one in relief, but only one could be considered good (8 IP, 1 ER vs. Seattle).
He and Jimenez need to get deeper into games, in order to take a burden off the relief corps, which has been overworked thus far.
If the bullpen collapses later in the year because of overuse, it could be devastating. The Indians do have some relief depth in the minors in guys like C.C. Lee and rapidly rising Cody Allen, and southpaw Nick Hagadone is already here, but losing games late can be a tough thing to overcome.
So, what can be decided about the 2012 Indians? They are still in it! They haven’t played their way out of contention, but they do have areas they need to shore up.
After another 27 games, the picture could get a little clearer.
KM
Cleveland Sports Perspective 