Right now, the Cleveland Cavaliers are an injury riddled group, and it is reflected in the win-loss column.

The wine and gold broke a nine game losing streak by beating Toronto 84-80 last night, and have fallen to the fourth worst record in the NBA, something all of the fans who promote losing to get a better draft pick have to be excited about.

Before the trading deadline, the Cavs’ five best players were Kyrie Irving, Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao, Ramon Sessions, and Alonzo Gee.  Right now, only two are playing, Jamison and Gee, and the former hasn’t been shooting the ball well, last night notwithstanding.  One can assume this is due to the absence of an experience point guard, because right now, D-League pick up Donald Sloan is getting the bulk of the minutes there.

Some idiots have questioned Byron Scott’s ability as a coach, failing to understand the Cavaliers stayed in the playoff hunt until the all-star game mostly because of Scott’s tutelage. 

Sure, fans have disagreements with every coach, but most of those come from not understanding the game of basketball. 

Still, thinking ahead to next fall, when Cleveland reports to training camp, there is likely to be about a 50% change in personnel.  Therefore, GM Chris Grant and Scott will have more of an opportunity to mold the team in their image.

Of the starting lineup that the coach used when everyone was healthy (Irving, Anthony Parker, Jamison, Gee, and Varejao), at least two of those players will be elsewhere at the start of next year.  Those two will be the eldest players, Parker and Jamison.

Jamison’s departure will be due to free agency, and will open up a starting spot for rookie Tristan Thompson at power forward.  Thompson’s averaging 8 points and 6 rebounds per night in a little under 23 minutes per game.  As a starter, he’s scoring 11 points and grabbing 7.3 boards per night.

Parker, also a free agent, will likely be replaced through the draft, probably with the wine and gold’s higher first round pick.  Cleveland needs to get a player who can step right in and contribute immediately at the #2 guard, because Varejao and Thompson should be solid up front, and the new backcourt mate for Irving will be able to pick up Jamison’s scoring.

It is probable that only one of the reserve shooting guards currently on the roster will remain.  Daniel Gibson plays solid defense and can still stroke the three-point shot when healthy, which isn’t all that often.  Lester Hudson is intriguing, and Manny Harris hasn’t played well when Scott has given him the opportunity.

At forward, Omri Casspi will likely return, but only because Grant can’t get comparable value for him.  Luke Harangody has spent most of the year in Canton, and will have to catch on with another team for 2012-13.  Luke Walton will have his salary for ’12-’13 and his expiring contract used in some sort of trade.

With Ryan Hollins already gone, Scott has went with Thompson, really a power forward, at center because he’s lost faith in Samardo Samuels and Semih Erden.  Of the two, Samuels is more likely to be back, if only because he shows some toughness and a decent shooting touch, and also because he should have been a senior on Louisville’s Final Four team.

Look for Grant to add another veteran big man to the mix, and rumors have circulated that one target in free agent Omer Asik, currently with Chicago (3.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 13 minutes).

That leaves the following keepers:  Irving, Gee, Thompson, Varejao, Casspi, Samuels, and maybe Sloan and Hudson.  That’s eight players, meaning a little less than half the roster will be new players. 

That means a summer of change for the Cavaliers.  And it will be a key summer because with two first round picks and salary cap space, Grant and Scott can lay the foundation for the next playoff team in Cleveland.

JK

Since we talked about the fortunes of the Indians earlier this week, we decided to look at how the rest of baseball shapes up for 2012 with our fearless predictions:

AL EAST:  1.  New York, 2. Tampa Bay, 3. Boston, 4. Toronto, 5. Baltimore

The Yankees weakness last year was their starting pitching and they’ve added Hiroki Kuroda in free agency and Michael Pineda in a trade with Seattle.  They are aging offensively, but should have enough to win.  Tampa Bay is adding a likely rookie of the year candidate Matt Moore to their starting rotation.  Boston has the potential to be a train wreck with Bobby Valentine in charge.  Toronto is good, but their in the wrong division, although if they jumped ahead of Boston it wouldn’t be a surprise.  The Orioles languish once again.

AL CENTRAL:  1. Detroit, 2. Kansas City, 3.  Chicago, 4. CLEVELAND, 5. Minnesota

The Tigers got one of the biggest prizes of the off-season in Prince Fielder, and should win again, although it will be closer than in 2011.  The Royals have oodles of young talented hitters coming up, so they will score runs, the pitching is still suspect.  The White Sox will get a bounce back year from Adam Dunn, and they still have decent starting pitching.  The Twins have to stay healthy (Mauer and Morneau in particular) if they want to stay in the race.

AL WEST:  1.  Texas, 2. Los Angeles, 3.  Oakland, 4. Seattle

This division may have the league’s two best teams and the two worst.  Texas has a solid lineup that can produce runs in their bandbox, and have power arms in the rotation to help combat the park.  The Angels have Albert Pujols, who will find the AL a little tougher than the NL, but the Halos rotation is loaded with Dan Haren, Jerad Weaver, Ervin Santana and C. J. Wilson.  The A’s are looking forward to find their way to San Jose.  Seattle can’t hit, and Ichiro Suzuki started showing his age last year.

WILD CARDS:  Tampa Bay and Los Angeles

NL EAST:  1.  Philadelphia, 2.  Atlanta, 3. Washington, 4.  Miami, 5. New York

The Phillies hitting may be showing some age, but their rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels will pitch them to another division title.  The Braves will get a bounce back year from Jason Heyward and still are solid on the mound.  The Nationals have some big time young talent (Zimmerman, Strasburg, Harper) and will improve.  The Marlins have potential, but need to prove it on the field.  The Mets have started to rebuild.

NL CENTRAL:  1.  St. Louis, 2.  Milwaukee, 3. Cincinnati, 4. Chicago, 5. Houston, 6. Pittsburgh

The defending world champions replaced Pujols with Carlos Beltran and get former 20 game winner Adam Wainwright back.  Milwaukee lost Fielder, but still has a strong starting rotation.  The Reds are going for it, getting Mat Latos from San Diego, but pitching in their hitting friendly park will hurt him.  The Cubs are starting another rebuilding process with Theo Epstein in charge.  The Astros young players will surprise.  The Pirates’ progress hits a speed bump.

NL WEST:  1.  Los Angeles, 2. Arizona, 3. San Diego, 4. San Francisco, 5. Colorado

The Dodgers have new ownership, the NL’s best player (Matt Kemp) and the best pitcher (Clayton Kershaw).  They’ll have the financial means to add talent at the trading deadline.  The Diamondbacks will get some fall back in numbers from some of the guys who helped them win last year.  The Padres are better than many think.  The Giants have great pitching, but can’t score runs.  The Rockies can score, but their pitching is very young (save for 49-year-old Jamie Moyer).

WILD CARDS:  Atlanta and Milwaukee

MW

Last season, the Cleveland Indians led the AL Central Division for a little over three months before being surpassed and then blown away by the Detroit Tigers in August. 

They wound up the season 15 games behind the Tigers.

Then, in the off-season, the front office basically did nothing to shore up the weakness on the team.  Last year’s Indians finished 9th in the AL in runs scored and 10th in ERA.

They added Derek Lowe to the starting rotation, but lost Roberto Hernandez, and offensively, they did nothing to improve a hitting attack that badly needed some right-handed hitting.

It is entirely possible for the Indians to catch lightning in a bottle if an awful lot of things go their way, but there are too many question marks to think the Tribe will make the playoffs this season.

We’re predicting a fourth place finish behind the Tigers, Royals, and White Sox, and around 73-75 victories.

In the American League, you need seven good hitters in your lineup to score enough runs to win.  Right now, Cleveland has five:  SS Asdrubal Cabrera, RF Shin-Soo Choo, C Carlos Santana, DH Travis Hafner, and 2B Jason Kipnis. 

The other four regulars (1B Casey Kotchman, 3B Jack Hannahan, CF Michael Brantley, and LF Shelley Duncan) simply do not do enough with the bat on a consistent basis. 

Out of those four, Brantley has the best chance to make a quantum leap to become a quality offensive player, but he needs to improve his on base percentage in order to do so.

If two of those four produce (or are replaced by quality hitters) then the Indians may be able to score enough runs to win in the American League.

The pitching staff is said to be the strength of the team, but the statistics say otherwise.  Outside of Ubaldo Jimenez, there isn’t any swing and miss stuff in the starting rotation, and certainly Jimenez is the key to the success of the rotation.

Since being acquired for the cream of the organization’s pitching prospects in late July, the big right-hander has been painfully inconsistent. 

If he starts to resemble the guy who won 19 games for Colorado in 2010, the Indians will be contenders.  If he languishes around the .500 mark and takes 100 pitches to get through six innings, then it will be a tough season for Cleveland.

Justin Masterson should be able to build on a solid 2011 campaign, but the biggest problem most of the starters will face could be lack of run support.

Lowe should be able to soak up innings and keep his team in games on most nights, and Josh Tomlin’s success is based on his pinpoint control. 

We’ve always liked Tomlin, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he finished with an ERA near or over 5.00 because he doesn’t have the greatest stuff in the world.

The bullpen was the strength of last year’s team and allowing for the instability of relief pitchers, should be again.  Hopefully, Chris Perez’s elbow soreness from last year lowered his strikeout rate, and not a sign of decline.

Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, and Rafael Perez have a track record of success, although expect Joe Smith to not be as good as he was in 2011.

The starters need to go deep into games to prevent the bullpen from being overused.

If the Indians don’t play well and fall out of the race early, it will probably mean Choo will be traded as he will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and Scott Boras is his agent.

That’s just something else to look forward to.

There are just too many question marks surrounding this team to think they can come close to a 90 win season.

Hopefully, we’re wrong, but it’s tough to feel optimistic about the 2012 Cleveland Indians.

MW