One of the things that has come out of the NFL draft phenomenon is the proliferation on so called “draft experts”. Basically, everyone can be one, because all it takes is an opinion.
And as we all know, opinions are like noses, everybody has one.
Now, any local sports talk station has its staff expert, usually a guy who probably knows no more than you or me about who can play in the NFL or who can’t. But he has a microphone, which listeners do not have.
The draft talk has intensified with the combine in Indianapolis, in which hundreds of scouts and “draft experts” get together and watch most of the players eligible for selection run around and lift weights.
There’s no actual football being played. Just a bunch of guys in shorts and t-shirts being poked and prodded by scouts. Yet, someone will emerge as having a great combine and will sky rocket up many draft boards.
If this is such an exact science, there wouldn’t be undrafted free agents who become all pros. There wouldn’t be guys like Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith. The production of players would coincide with where they were slotted in the selection process.
We all know this isn’t true.
Let’s go back to 2008, when the experts were shocked that Brady Quinn, who was projected to be one of the top five or ten picks in the draft slid all the way to the 22nd pick, taken by the Cleveland Browns.
Based on Quinn’s play in the league, the experts were wrong. Quinn wasn’t as good as they thought.
On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers was projected the first quarterback selected when he came out of the University of California, a certain top ten pick. He dropped to late in the first round when Green Bay selected him, and they are very glad other teams passed.
Alex Smith was the first QB picked that season, in fact he was the first overall selection. How has he worked out?
The buzz this year surrounds Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton of Auburn. Newton is a physical specimen, measuring at 6’6″ and 250 pounds. He ran a 4.59 40 yard dash in Indianapolis.
Unfortunately, having great speed is not the primary thing people look for in quarterbacks.
To me, the most important attributes a QB can have are leadership and accuracy. That’s why Quinn didn’t make it and Rodgers did. The playoffs demonstrated for one and all how pinpoint the Green Bay quarterback was with his throws.
According to reports from the combine, Newton was found wanting in this area.
The ability to read defenses is another great skill to have. For example, look at Bernie Kosar. Kosar knew what the opponents were going to do when he got under center.
It was said that Newton was found wanting in this area as well.
Therefore, if you are Browns’ GM Tom Heckert, who makes his living evaluating talent, not talking on the radio, would you take Cam Newton with the 6th pick in the draft come April?
If the Heisman Award winner is there, he will be under some pressure to do so.
Newton will probably be taken ahead of that pick, most likely going to Buffalo with the third selection, so Heckert will be spared.
The guess here is that the Browns are looking at defense anyway since there is a lot of talent supposedly available, and that is a great area of need for this football team.
Thankfully, a pro is making that pick for Cleveland and not some radio guy wowed by someone’s 40 yard dash time.
JD
Cleveland Sports Perspective 