Since the Cleveland Cavaliers lost one of the game’s best players, there is a lot of speculation on what they should do next. One of the popular theories out there is the team should go into total rebuilding mode, dealing most of its better players in an effort to get back in the lottery and draft the game’s next all star.
That is a high risk, low reward plan of attack.
When the Cavs won the draft lottery in 2003, they had one of the top picks in one of the greatest drafts in recent history. Besides LeBron James going first, Carmelo Anthony went third, and James’ new teammates Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade were also in the top five picks.
Those kind of players don’t come out every year, so losing and getting one of the top picks doesn’t guarantee success.
In 2004, Orlando won the lottery and picked Dwight Howard, but many thought Emeka Okafor would be a difference maker as the second pick to Charlotte. He wasn’t and the best player picked that year in the top 10 is probably Andre Iguodala, with Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, and Luol Deng also being lottery picks. Not a lot of playoff appearances after Howard.
In 2005, Milwaukee chose Andrew Bogut with the first pick, although the best players selected among the lottery picks were guards Deron Williams (3rd overall) and Chris Paul (4th). The only player to be on an NBA title team in the top 10 is Lakers’ center Andrew Bynum, who was the 10th selection.
In 2006, the Toronto Raptors had the first pick and took Andrea Bargnani, who is averaging 13 points and five rebounds in his career. LaMarcus Aldride and Adam Morrison were the next two picks. The best player taken in the top ten is Blazers’ guard Brandon Roy, the sixth selection in the draft.
2007 saw Ohio State’s Greg Oden taken ahead of Kevin Durant, who has become the best player in that draft, and one of the best players in the NBA. Al Horford, Jeff Green, and Joakim Noah were other notable top ten picks.
So, in the five year span including 2003 through 2007, the first pick in the draft turned out to be a superstar in the league twice, James and Howard in 2003-04. Derrick Rose was the #1 overall pick in 2008 and he is a tremendous player, so you could raise the proposition that you have a 50-50 shot of getting a franchise player if you get the first pick.
However, there are just two appearances in The Finals for those players, and no titles.
The other three years saw the best player in the draft going later in the first round, ranging from the second pick (Durant) to the sixth pick (Roy). Therefore, if you are going to lose on purpose, you better be in the right half of the guessing pool.
And looking at the top ten of each of these drafts, there are more misses and average NBA players picked in the beginning part of the draft than there are all star type players. So, general managers and amateur GM should have a better alternative or at least a supplement to getting into the draft lottery, because no team has won a title by using that plan.
It seems many of these people are the same folks who look forward to the NFL draft every year. They are in love with potential and the unknown. It is tiring to hear people talk about what a great roster the New Jersey Nets have. They won 12 GAMES in 2009-10! 12! They certainly have some players who might wind up being good, but right now they are a terrible team.
Others have mentioned Memphis as an up and coming team. Why? Because they have Rudy Gay, a very good player, and Zack Randolph, a malcontent in the past; O.J. Mayo, whose position is still up for grabs, and Marc Gasol, who is a good big man. Still, they haven’t made the playoffs with this group.
You have to remember that winning is a learned skill, and the Cavaliers have a bunch of players who won 127 games in the regular season the past two years. As Byron Scott said, James isn’t the only reason for all those wins.
There is no question the Cavaliers need to upgrade their roster, but there are other ways of getting better than destroying the roster and building from scratch. In fact, the two teams in The Finals used trades to get where they are, the Lakers getting Pau Gasol, and Boston getting Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.
GM Chris Grant and owner Dan Gilbert have to get a plan, but losing should be the last option they try.
JK
Cleveland Sports Perspective 