Opening Day is less than one week away. Monday night, the Cliff Lee will toe the rubber against the Rangers in Arlington as the 2009 season gets underway. How will the Indians do this season? Will Travis Hafner come back? How will the bullpen perform? Will the starting rotation turn into “Carmona and Lee then get down on your knee”?
I would love to say the Cleveland Indians will win the 2009 American League Central Division, but I can’t. My gut tells me we are looking at a third place finish this year, behind the Twins and White Sox, and the biggest reason for that is the starting pitching.
This has nothing to do with Cliff Lee’s struggles in Arizona, either. Lee’s a proven veteran, and he looks at spring training as a way to try out different things against hitters, and as a way to get his arm ready to make 35 starts throughout the next six months. Fausto Carmona looks good too. He seems to have recovered the control he lost in 2008, and is throwing strikes. AL hitters can attest that if Carmona gets ahead of you, he’s very difficult to hit.
I haven’t seen enough of the rest of the starters to foresee a first place finish. Carl Pavano has looked good in his last two spring starts, but you have to remember that they came against the Padres. Anthony Reyes has pitched well all spring, but his elbow is definitely a question mark. Neither right-hander has healthy for a full major league season since 2004. It’s a giant leap of faith to expect it in 2009.
As for the fifth starter, it will be done as a committee approach as the roster will extend to Class AAA Columbus. Scott Lewis will not have a long leash, especially after yesterday’s game, as Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey, and David Huff are waiting in the wings. It would not be surprising to see Huff with more starts than the others come the end of the season.
The bullpen will be fine with Kerry Wood as the anchor, and Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, and Rafael Betancourt setting him up. Joe Smith is a good pick up as a situational right-hander. And another lefty, Tony Sipp, will start the year in Columbus, but could make an impact before the season is done.
This team will score runs, with or without a healthy Travis Hafner. Victor Martinez’ return will give the lineup another professional hitter with power, and count me among those who believe Shin-Soo Choo will have a big year at the dish. Mark DeRosa looks to be a good fit hitting second behind Grady Sizemore, as he is a patient hitter with some pop. Also, having an in shape Asdrubal Cabrera will give the bottom of the order a quality hitter.
This is not to say the Cleveland Indians cannot win the division, but there are too many question marks in the starting rotation for me to feel confident that they can win. I think the Indians are a good team, and they will win between 85-90 games. However, with the rotation in a state of flux, they will probably be on the lower end of that range. That won’t be enough to get to the playoffs.
If Mark Shapiro can deal some of his excess at the 1B/OF/DH spots and turn them into a reliable starting pitcher, the Indians can win. However, I don’t have the confidence that this will happen. Therefore, I have to think third place for the ’09 Cleveland Indians.
MW
Cleveland Sports Perspective 
Carl Pavano reminds me of Scott Elarton "which is not good". Anthony Reyes is a younger version of Paul Byrd "that could be a good thing". Scott Lewis will be fine, he should be able hold down the fifth spot in the rotation until David Huff is ready. Fausto Carmona is certainly in the top 10 in the league when it comes to #2 starters, he has the best stuff on the staff and should bounce back from last years injury. Cliff Lee has struggled this spring, but he has nothing to prove until April 6th; he won’t be the anchor on the staff this year, though "I think that belongs to Carmona" but Cliff should pitch well enough to give Cleveland a respectable 1-2 (left, right) combination in the rotation. And the bullpen should also make life much easier for the starters. There is a nice mixture of power and craftiness within the bullpen. Joe Smith is very talented and Kerry Wood should be fun to watch. Those two additions to go along with Jensen Lewis, Rafael Betancourt and Perez make this bullpen one of the strongest in the league "on paper". The AL Central is one of the best divisions in the MLB, so the winner has to get off to a very fast start "in my opinion". Eric Wedge really has to preach that message to the players "no more grinding it out". Start to finish, the intensity from each position player has to match that of Grady Sizemore and from each pitcher, that of Kerry Wood. They have to be more aggressive on the bases, bunt more and do everything possible to manufacture runs. And the pitchers have to take command of the inner half the plate and become more aggressive with the velocity on their fastballs. They are leaving way too many pitches in the zone; hitters should not be so comfortable at the plate. Call ups and demotions also need to be done with knee jerk reaction "if necessary" (Dave Dellucci, Ryan Garko, Travis Hafner) Getting off to a slow start this year will not be easy to recover from. There is really no favorite to win the division "in my opinion", it is really more like a toss up. Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota and Chicago all have the potential to win this division and the Kansas City will not be a guaranteed 3 or 4 game sweep any longer. "It should be fun to watch:)Player to watch: "Trevor Crowe" he reminds of Brian Roberts; with his speed, plate discipline and good bat speed from both sides of the plate. He will be a nice fit on this team when Dave Dellucci gets out of his way!