Let the angst begin. Tomorrow, the Cleveland Indians start their AL Division Series against the powerful New York Yankees at Jacobs Field. Some fans are thumping their chests because of the one-two pitching punch of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, but there have been many circumstances where having dominant pitchers don’t guarantee success. For example, look at Roger Clemens lack of success in the post season prior to 1998. One thing is for sure; this is a series of contrasts.
TRIVIA QUESTION: Who was the last Indians’ pitcher to win a post-season game?
Answer below
The Yankees have the best offense in baseball, scoring 157 more runs this season than the Indians, an average of almost a run per game more. However, the Tribe has allowed 73 less runs this season than New York. The Bronx Bombers led the AL in scoring, Cleveland ranked 6th. In ERA, the Indians ranked 3rd in the junior circuit, New York was 8th. The conventional wisdom in baseball says good pitching beats good hitting, but they play the games on the field.
There is no question the Yankees have gaudy offensive numbers, but they have much more pop at home, averaging almost a run per game more at Yankee Stadium than on the road. Although they scored almost 1000 runs this season, remember this, the last team to score that many runs in a season was the 1999 Cleveland Indians. That team lost in the Division Series to the Red Sox.
The New York pitching was also more effective at home, allowing about a half run per game less than on the road. The Indians pitched better on the road, with an ERA of under 4.00 away from Jacobs Field for the season. On offense, the Tribe did fair slightly better at home scoring 425 runs here, and 386 on the road.
To me, the key to the series is the Cleveland offense. In the well-documented six losses to New York in the regular season, the Tribe scored 17 runs, an average of less than three per game. You simply are not going to win games against New York with the puny attack the Indians mustered this year. The Indians have to put their hitting shoes on, work counts, and get into the middle of the New York bullpen, before Joe Torre can get to Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera.
Another concern I have is Rafael Perez. You may not have noticed because of the games on the west coast last week, but Perez has struggled in his recent outings, including Saturday night against Kansas City. I’m hoping he has not hit a wall. The bullpen needs his left-handed offerings, especially against a team with as many left handed hitters as the Yanks have. Also, he shortens the game if he is on, with the starters having to give the ballclub six innings before going to Perez, Rafael Betancourt, and Joe Borowski.
Eric Wedge’s one game at a time approach must be enforced for the young players, many in their first post season. Trot Nixon’s advise to slow the game down also helps. For the Tribe to win and advance to the ALCS, they have to do better offensively. As good as Sabathia and Carmona have been this year, Chien Ming Wang is no slouch. He has won 19 games each of the last two seasons, and is definitely one of the best hurlers in the game.
Trivia Answer: Tomorrow’s starter C.C. Sabathia, who won Game 3 against Seattle in 2001, 17-2.
MW
Cleveland Sports Perspective 