The Cleveland Indians’ offense took a week long siesta with a playoff spot on the line, scoring more than four runs in a game just once (the 6-0 victory over the Devil Rays), even though they finished fourth in the American League in runs scored. Did they choke? Or is it simply a case of young players trying to do too much?
In the cases of Grady Sizemore and Coco Crisp, it was players trying to do too much. I think Ronnie Belliard is guilty of the same thing. The bottom of the order simply doesn’t make enough contact to make Eric Wedge’s one though nine approach work when the top of the order isn’t hitting over a period of time. Still, this is a very young team, meaning its key offensive components are still going to get better. Travis Hafner is the oldest of the core players at 28, within the prime of his career. Victor Martinez will be 27 next year, historically the best year a player has. Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, and Jhonny Peralta are all 25 and younger, and should be getting better as players.
Ronnie Belliard, age 31 in 2006, will probably have his $4 million option for 2006 picked up, and although I’m not totally sure about this move, it is tough to argue the logic of bringing him back. Aaron Boone restructured his 2006 deal to take less money, but at 33 he is not going to improve. I would be stunned if Ben Broussard will be back with the Tribe when they meet in Winter Haven in February, and Casey Blake will probably become a utility man subbing at 1B, 3B, and the outfield.
The Tribe’s lineup does strike out too much. The team had four players with over 100 whiffs (Sizemore, Peralta, Blake, and Hafner), and Broussard fanned 98 times. They need a professional hitter, preferably righthanded in the middle of the order. The Indians were second in the AL in striking out, and all the whiffs effect the team’s ability to have productive outs. Sizemore and Peralta should improve their numbers with experience.
On the pitching side, Kevin Millwood will likely not be back in 2006, but if he is not, Scott Elarton probably will be. Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia are quality pitchers and should pitch well again in ’06. Jake Westbrook is a good back of the rotation starter. The bullpen is a hit or miss proposition every year, but Fernando Cabrera should be in the mix next season.
The Indians have some tradable commodities like Broussard, Brandon Phillips, and maybe even Jason Davis to help fill some of these holes. GM Mark Shapiro must be willing to trade some (not all) prospects to perhaps get another Millwood type hurler to anchor the rotation.
Another encouraging sign for next season is the luck factor. The Indians lost 36 one run games in 2005, and history tells us this number should turn around the following year. Stat guru Bill James would always say the sleeper team for the following year is the team who lost the most one run games that season. Despite what WKNR’s Kenny Roda believes, losing one run games is mostly luck.
No one knows if the Tribe will lead the league in ERA next season. They probably won’t. But, if they finish in the top five in 2006, it will be a great season for the Cleveland Indians. This is a young team, and many of its players will continue to get better. Ask any baseball expert who will be the favorite in the AL Central next season, and they will say the Cleveland Indians.
MW
Cleveland Sports Perspective 